on the worst "trying" team in baseball
The Rockies, despite sweeping the Nats, are historically bad. They are on pace for 37 wins. There literally should be calls from the game to replace the owner because things are so non-competitive in Denver.
The White Sox are in a similar spot, Reinsdorf aging into a worse version of himself as owner often do stuck with a "back in my day we didn't pay players so much" mentality, trying to squeeze every last dollar from the team for years leading to another terrible team in 2025. This is a cycle and this year the WHite Sox are the one at the nadir, on the path for the low 50s in wins. However, they are finally in the process of being sold
The other teams down here are of a similar bent. The Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins are all infamous for not really trying. Instead trying to be "Tampa Bay Lite" investing in the minors enough to hope to cobble together a decent 1-2 year squad that pushes .500 and a Wild Card a couple times a decade. Maybe every couple decades have things line up right for a brief window of actual contention. The Orioles, recently sold, look to be adding their name to this list, squandering a decent base of youth. And the Royals probably belong in this group, but are having that cobbled together squad couple years that we just talked about. (I do think they push a bit more than the others when things line up)
So it's down here, with the likes of these teams that the Nats sit. And its not because of a run of terrible luck (Hey Braves!) or a that this is the low point in a rebuilding process, that was a couple years ago. No it's earned and deserved. The Nats are a team with all the hallmarks of not trying. It is what we noted going into this year. This was the year to start trying. They did not. That's a warning sign.
Luckily for the Nats fans they don't have a history of doing this. So maybe it's not actually happening. Maybe the Nats aren't becoming a team like those noted above. Maybe it's just a one year blip, trying to get timing right. Maybe.
But it's hard to get hopes up when you know at least part of the ownership group wants out. And it's hard to get hopes up when having the 3rd lowest winning percentage of all active managers while constantly throwing your team under the bus, can't get a manager fired. And it's hard when you have a guy turning into an ace and a budding superstar on your team and you don't hear a peep about long-term signings.
I still say it's a low-mid 70s win team, I still say they catch a run. I still say hold out hope for this off-season. What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist. But I don't blame you if you don't.
Yeah, I have to agree here. It really reminds me of the Snyder years -- a team I love just isn't going to be any good until the owner changes. You can argue (I think Harper did?) that the ownership changed when Ted Lerner died, and the kids are in limbo about what to do. I get that you can't support a $300M payroll like the Mets do. But an ownership group in Washington DC that can't support $175M is just not good at their jobs. That should be plenty to be in that SF/StL tier, where you can sign some big stars, as well as round out the roster with $8M guys rather than $1M "hope he's not useless yet" flyers. You should be in the wild-card hunt 75% of the time and make a deep run every 5 years or so.
ReplyDeleteThis rebuild has kind-of worked -- there's a solid foundation there. They have capable starters at SS,3B, LF, RF, and CF (when Crews is healthy), and Morales should be a good fit at DH/1B soon. The rotation's got some good arms, and more good arms on the way (if you include "recovering from Nationals Elbow" as "on the way"), and the bullpen is.. well they have a few guys who are fine. What they really need is $50M in real good payroll investments. Buy a $20M slugger for 1b/dh. Get a 2b who's good at defense and ok with the bat. Spend $20M more on pitching - either a 4th starter and 2 decent relievers, or 3 good relievers. That's a pretty solid team, and if the Lerners can't be bothered to field that kind of team in the nation's capital, get the hell out of the way so someone else can.
Sorry, I don't think they will win 70 games. They are on pace for 66 wins, and that might be optimistic. They really haven't faced serious injuries, Wood is one of the best hitters in all of baseball, Gore is pretty close to a #1, CJ Abrams is well above average and Jake Irvin is a pretty good #3. And yet, they still can't win. The rest of the team is awful, and the bullpen is a disaster.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to think there are two separate problems. I am so done with Davey. Why is he running out iffy relievers who will be pitching for the fourth time in five days with a cross-continental plane trip in the middle? We need a manager who will hold players accountable privately, not who will throw them under the bus publicly!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe other problem is why they (Rizzo) are holding back on bringing up more kids? Jacob Young (back to AAA), Riley Adams (run him through waivers), and Trevor Williams (to the bullpen) would be a start. Then bring up Hassell, Milas, and Cavelli.
I would feel much better if we were losing with the kids learning then suffering defeats because veterans are washed up. That's where i think, ultimately, we are better than the other bottom-dwellers--we have talent coming....and probably Kade Anderson (the next coming of Paul Skenes?) before long.
Notice, I am not focused on ownership. I think they have been right about not signing anyone expensive until they have a better sense of who can play among our kids. The long-term extensions should wait for the Fall....it would be a hard sell to get someone to commit long-term to DC right now. Finish out the season, figure out who your reliable core is, supplement it with some free agents, then try to see if someone is willing to commit.
Agreed on Davey.
DeleteBut not really on the kids. I think they've actually done a pretty good job of giving the right folks ML reps this year.
What about Hassell's month long run makes you think he'll be better than Young at anything? (Young is, by the way, only 2 years older than RH3.) Hassell is clearly a worse defender, and he has a worse AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, xwOBA, BB%, and K%. I don't think the cake is completely baked yet for either of them, but there's no question who has the better median projection.
And I'm all for DFA'ing Adams and giving Millas another chance, but Millas is running well below league average in AAA. I want to give him a chance, but I expect failure. (I also don't think anyone claims Adams, which is why I would have done this move back in spring.)
I'm maybe with you on Cavalli deserving promotion, but they steal back a year of control in like 2 weeks. They won't bring him up before then, and probably not until they trade Soroka. But even that is at most like a month or 6 weeks late, so it's not like Rizzo is slow walking him in a way that hurts his development.
I think Harper nails the situation. At this point, we don't know. But a year ago, there was no reason to think the team was going to join those ignominious ranks, and now there are some reasons. If we're in the same place next summer, it will be hard to find an argument against it.
I was not thrilled when Davey mangled his defense of his coaching staff into what sure sounded like an attack on the players. Particularly when his "apology" amounted to gaslighting (he said that he never mentioned the players, when the recordings show that he absolutely did).
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'm somewhat amused by the fact that he's now getting grief for throwing his players under the bus, when for years fans were yelling about Davey NOT holding players accountable. Pick a lane.
As a side note, the Nats were not swept by the Rockies. I know because I was at the game and thoroughly enjoyed James Wood's bolt of lightning walk off winner in the 11th.
The complaint was never that Davey was too supportive of his players in public. The original observation has simply been that his players have shown mental lapses at a consistently higher clip than other teams, and that has metastasized first into the inference that they are badly coached, and then (because crotchety baseball fans think being a hard ass is the only way to teach anyone anything) into the message board caricature of Davey being too buddy-buddy to hold players accountable. The truth is that's all speculation, beyond the original preponderance of mistakes.
DeleteBut however your best guesses land on all that, I don't see how it would mitigate the disaster of an interview last week either way. In fact, I'd say that the gaslighting public non-apology and the tale of his weird half-apology in the locker room only corroborates the idea that he fails to hold folks accountable or communicate directly in tough situations. It was just such mealy mouthed shit.
@johnC There is a big difference in our work lives (for all of us), when the boss chews you out at a staff meeting versus when he gives you some critical feedback in his office. I suspect that Davey isn't holding anyone accountable....but if he is, then it should be in his office, not at a press conference.
DeleteCavalli's not ready, Hassell and Lile aren't either. I'm fine calling Hassell or Lile up for a week or two to cover for injury and "as a taste of the big leagues", but look at their stats. They're not ready. They need more time in AAA. That said, they're not likely to ever be stars as much as solid contributors.
ReplyDeleteCavalli would be nice to see if he's ever going to make it, but who knows.
I hope they draft a good starting pitcher. A college arm from the SEC is probably going to be ready to contribute really soon, which is what they need. But again, without another $50M from the Lerners, they're not going anywhere.
Talent-wise, the 2025 Nats have moved out of the bottom quarter of MLB teams. They could have been very close to playoff contention if they had intelligently spent more off-season cash.
ReplyDeleteIt's clear Rizzo was on a leash. So per his usual strategy, he went dumpster diving and didn't really worry about the bullpen. Given so little owner-investment in talent, he decided 2025 would be the year to see what we have. And the young player crop is actually not bad.
Two changes put this team very close to .500.
1 - A decent bullpen --- those early losses are on Rizzo.
2 - The 11 game losing streak -- share that between DM, his coaching staff and the players. There's no excuse for not being better prepared for home games they should win. Seeing the Dodgers destroy our bullpen -- that's preparation. Full briefings that expose the Nats bullpen weakness, probably conveyed from coaches via iPad reports. Nats players were checked out for two weeks.
When they check back in, the Nats youngsters can be formidable. So its okay to be optimistic. Expect coaching changes in the off-season if they don't play up much more.
100% agree Harper. It's disappointing Nats fans are again looking toward next year halfway into the season. With just a little investment, this team could have been a .500 team and maybe even WC contender.
ReplyDelete"They could have been very close to playoff contention if they had intelligently spent more off-season cash." "With just a little investment, this team could have been a .500 team and maybe even WC contender."
ReplyDeleteOf course, the flip side is that if they had listened to the fans and signed major free agents like Anthony Santander, Joc Pederson, Christian Walker, Blake Snell (etc.) to push for contention, they could have been even worse in 2025 AND added burdensome contracts that would further impede their ability to compete in the future.
It's a lot easier to be a GM in a comments section than it is if you actually have to do the job.
The problem is they have been "competing for the future" for too long. It's time to go for it and they aren't demonstrating that commitment
DeleteBut no one is paying me millions of dollars to be a GM, you're still responsible for the results. (FYI, the only free agent I wanted the Nats to sign was Trevor Bauer)
DeleteOof. Trevor Bauer. The guy who carries more baggage than a porter and currently literally has the worst ERA in NPB? Yeah, no.
DeleteHey has a 3.88 ERA and last year it was only 2.76. In terms of baggage it's been proven he was falsely accused and he could've been signed on the cheap. Even if you just move him to the bullpen, but tell me he's not better than Trevor Williams.
DeleteContext matters. Yes he has a 3.88 ERA ... but it's the worst in the league. NPB is a pitcher's league (the league ERA is 2.79). Bauer is struggling to get basically AA hitters out. He was just demoted to the Japanese minor leagues. I have zero confidence that he's better than TW at this point.
DeleteA team with Josh Bell as the everyday DH and Mike Soroka/Trevor Williams as 2/5 of an MLB rotation is not trying to win (putting aside the bullpen). Soroka has worked out reasonably well, and may fetch something at the deadline. Williams is and has always been an MLB relief pitcher, and he will likely fill that role next year.
ReplyDeleteGiven the signings in the 24/25 offseason, it's obvious Rizzo's budget was limited. I think there was a path to .500 (and perhaps to WC contention) this year if his budget was $30M higher. I can understand the logic of waiting--that extra $30M almost certainly would have included some multi-year contracts that might not look so good next year. At some point, however, you need to push your chips in and, if that time wasn't last offseason, it is *definitely* this offseason. We have two more years of Gore--the franchise must behave as though it thinks it can make the playoffs during those two years. For me, the failure to spend this year was enough of a sign that I think "the field" is a better ownership situation than the Lerners. But the Lerners' coffin hasn't been nailed shut just yet--they have a chance to spend this offseason. If they don't, then the only conclusion is that they never will a la the dregs of MLB.
Thought experiment: what would we think about this rebuild if the Nats had been able to draft Skenes in '23? This could have occurred if the Nats had the #1 pick or if PIT had taken Crews at #1 as everybody seemed to think they would at the time. My own view is that we'd feel a lot better--the ~$15M spent on Soroka and Bell could have been spent on a real DH. The point here is not to engage in fantasy-thinking but to suggest that luck matters--this very small change would probably have had a large effect on the overall trajectory of the rebuild.
"The problem is they have been "competing for the future" for too long."
ReplyDeleteMy definition of too long will be when the Nationals trade away a successful player, acquired/drafted during the rebuild, for more prospects.
For example, if the Nationals traded James Wood for prospects.
The Nats window of contention is open now. They needed pieces to augment the young core. Ownership and the front office has not yet shown a commitment to winning. Being happy with mediocrity and maintaining a budget/profits is boring
Delete“The Nats should have spent more this off-season.” Even if they were willing to spend more, does the player want to play here?
ReplyDeleteSerious question: is there a player this past offseason that 1) we the fans would have wanted, 2) took a reasonable offer to player somewhere else, and 3) that “somewhere else” was the Marlins, Pirates, Rockies, White Sox, or A’s? I cannot think of a particular player. All the guys we wanted either took more money or went to play for a contending team (and in some cases got both).
Of course we all love the Nats. Yes, 2019 was an incredible year and DC baseball for us is just lovely. Of course… but maybe… maybe from an outsider’s perspective, this is just one of the crappier places to play with no proven talent with an ownership situation on shaky ground. This group of kids has to prove it on the field to entice a big name FA to play here, or Rizzo should trade some prospects and make a splash, or this rebuild will take a lot longer than any of us want it to.
There are mid-market franchises that seem to be competitive contenders year in and year out. Look at the Rays, Astros, Cardinals, Brewers, etc. Why can't the Nationals sustain that kind of winning culture?
DeleteMarlins, Pirates, Rockies, White Sox, or A’s are all dumpster fires. And if you want to say "so are we", fair enough. That's a plausible take.
DeleteBut you'd think it would show up in surveys like https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6406636/2025/06/11/best-worst-mlb-manager-2025-player-poll/ or https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6273808/2025/04/16/mlb-top-10-front-offices-executive-vote/. When you actually ask players and coaches and front office employees how they rate franchises, the Nats are mediocre and not terrible. So your theory of the case has to come up with a reason why these polls are biased or how they're measuring the wrong thing from the perspective of FAs choosing teams. Maybe.
But to me the easier inference is that the team didn't offer the contracts, and not that a bunch of players rejected our offers because they don't think our young core has what it takes to succeed.
PBN: the Nats could/should have spent on someone that went to the Reds/Twins/Royals/Brewers/Rangers/Dbacks. Those are the teams that the Nats should AT THE VERY LEAST, be keeping up with. If you can't pry a superstar away from the Dodgers, I get it. But the mid-level teams, when you have a young core that's almost ready? That's how you bust the window open. Go find a good slugger and pay him real money. Get 2 solid relievers. The Nats have arms on the way: Gray, Herz, Cavalli, Sykora, Susana. The position player pipeline is pretty much tapped out - a handful of fringy guys and probably Morales as a 1b. The part that drives me nuts is that the pieces they need are the easiest ones to fill - DH and middle relief. They're just a checkbook away.
DeleteAgree with KR only to add Catcher. Not easy there.
DeletePete Alonzo jumps to mind as a Jason Werth type signing. The Nats could have overpaid for him simultaneously strengthening the Nats and weakening the Mets.
ReplyDeleteIf Alonso opts out of his Mets contract (likely unless he gets hurt or his productivity simply collapses, in either case he would simply exercise his $24M player option for 2026) the Nats signing him would not cost them a draft pick since a player can only receive a QO once.
DeleteThis blog is DEAD
ReplyDeletePfui, look who knows so much. This blog is only MOSTLY dead. Which means that it is slightly alive!
ReplyDeleteHaha…it’s hanging by a thread.
DeleteMaybe it's time to go through Harper's pockets for loose change ...
ReplyDeleteHey, let's give Harper a break. What, exactly, would you have him write about? The Nationals are, sadly, wholly uninteresting. The huge talents of James Wood and McKenzie Gore are being wasted. I suppose it's almost time to write about who will be traded at the trade deadline (Soroka? Lowe? Finnegan?) and what the Nats can get for them (not much).
ReplyDeleteShould the Nats take Ethan Holliday. A high school position player with a better than average chance of being a really good player years from now. On the other hand, there are two college pitchers that the Nats could draft and bring up to the big leagues next year. This is the problem with no clear number 1 prospect. I am still slightly bitter over the draft lottery. Imagine how different this team would look if they could have drafted Skenes like there draft order should have been.
ReplyDelete