One thing you have to realize about the Nats is they HAVEN'T made a big push to remain in the Wild Card hunt. 6-4 in last 10. 8-7 in last 15. In mid June they reached 39-35 and they've gone 15-17 since and they've gone from in the WC and up a game to one game out of the Wild Card.
The middle of the NL is extremely soft. There are no very good teams beyond possibly the Phillies (and I'm not 100% sold on them). There are six basically equal teams looking to get that last spot. The Nats are in good shape to be the one.
But it's not the plan.
The plan is 2028, with 2027 looking brighter based on this year, but it's never been 2026.
So they trade a good bat today for a good arm tomorrow. The process doesn't change.
But who is going to make that push? The Padres or Diamondbacks seem possible. The Pirates and Marlins seem unlikely. I don't know where the Cardinals stand. They were kind of supposed to be in year one of a complete tear down to the studs but then Jordan Walker suddenly became the player everyone thought he'd be 2 years ago and the pitching has been surprisingly better than average. I can't see them buying but who knows? If you don't you are wasting build around Jordan Walker which you might have for only a couple more years before you'd want to deal him... but I digress
The Nats should be in the thick of it. Will they be pressing the issue though? The first trade suggests not. That was a good deal but not a good deal for 2026. Early just started mound work.
The team is better than you thought they'd be.
The league is worse than you might have thought it would be.
You hope for things to work out like this.
Maybe I'm being foolish, but I am so tired of "play for tomorrow". I don't want to make any rash moves and trade away the guys who could make this team special, but I am also sick of looking like Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, where the reward for success is a plane ticket out of town.
ReplyDeleteI know that if this team makes the playoffs, they'll get walloped. In my (realistic) dream world, they get eliminated the last Thursday of the season and close the year sweeping the Mets and feeling good about things.
If they trade Garcia away for pitching, they have guys who can fill in for him pretty well. Trading Abrams or Griffin, however, would really torpedo this season.
Reports say that Griffin's agent shut down extension talks shortly after they began. It looks like he wants to test the free agent market. The Cubs and Phillies are putting together packages to present to the Nationals as I write this. The informed guess is that the Cubs will outbid every one.Early is a replacement for Griffin and he is cost control. The owners don't want to spend any money. Don't obsess over it. You can't change it.
ReplyDeleteIf you aren't going to extend Griffin, you have to trade him. His value is never going to be higher. The Nats aren't built for a WS run, too many problems on the pitching staff, so yeah you should be trading for tomorrow (but literally tomorrow, don't be buying lotto tickets)
ReplyDeleteYou may hope for situations like this, but more importantly, they aren’t set up for situations like this. Even if they did make the playoffs (odds are against it), who would pitch? Cavalli would likely not be available (assuming they’ll shut him down at some point). Bullpen isn’t ready for October, even if they’ll shut “bought” at the deadline. I agree with 2028 being the goal, but maybe they can also compete in 2027. This year has been fun since it was much above what we thought was possible. The fact that they’re still playing meaningful baseball and not clearly in the “sell camp” in late July has been a “win” itself, compared to the rest of the 2020s. I’m fairly content with how things have gone
ReplyDeleteThere is a big difference between rebuilding for an indefinite future, and rebuilding with a specific short-term plan. We're no longer waiting for a distant Messiah. The Nats finally have a firm short-term path, with plenty of good young players coming up in 2027-29, and a huge war chest for pitching, if the Lerners permit. (And I think the Lerners likely will permit, since the rewards of spending are finally close enough to taste.)
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to give up a shot at losing soon in the 2026 playoffs, for a good team in 2027, and a dynasty starting 2028.