Cade Cavalli just signed a 4 year "extension". I used those quotations because it was really a one-year extension, buying out the first year of Cade's potential free agency. With his performance it's hard to think of a situation where they wouldn't keep him on the roster the next three seasons to finish out their control, even through injury. Assuming he can make it through 2027 without major incident this contract is a bargain for the Nats. Cade of course takes it because it secures the bag. Lifetime "never have to think about money for me or my family again". You'd think oh he made like 10 million that should do it but work it out and that's kind of "ok with smart planning and no stupid spending you should easily be ok the rest of your life" money. He goes down at age 30 and that's like a 250K salary for the rest of his life. That's good (well maybe not when he's 60 the way inflation is going) but it's not like "sitting on an island having a butler bring you food from your private chef" good. 40 million though? Hey Jeeves, tell chef I want a hamburger and fries.
Anyway Cavalli earned it by being like one of the top 20 pitchers in the league. Maybe it doesn't feel like it because you can imagine a scenario with everyone healthy where he's more like Top 50 but that's not really true. Looking at all the pitchers with 100 or more IP, he's 13th in K rate. That's great! He's 35th in HR-rate and 46th in BB-rate. That's good! One great and two goods is a top of the rotation pitcher if not a dominant one. The fancy stats suggest he might be getting a touch better results than expected (his LOB rate is a touch high, his HR/FB rate a touch low) but also there isn't much history with Cavalli to go on. He's a GB pitcher and those types tend to have higher LOB and lower HR/FB rates so maybe this is his normal. He's still a say... 3.50 ERA type at least and if that's not Top 20 it's 20-25ish with the innings he gives.
Anyway Anyway Cavalli is missing his last start. The Nats say it's because of the innings increase. He's at 170 now, last year he threw 120 which was about as much as he's ever thrown. So this is true. It's also true the games are meaningless now outside of draft order and lottery odds. He has a history of injury. He's thrown as many starts as nearly anyone in baseball. I think this is a gross scaredy cat move. Scaredy cat because it's a "look we don't want him to get hurt in the last start of a meaningless season so let's pull him" which I get but also if that's your opinion just pull everyone and tank after elimination. Except you can't and you really shouldn't because as a fan I think that's gross. Fans deserve a full season of play not 145 games then watch some exhibition you rubes
But a lot of that comes from a lack of trust that they are really building for something. Show me the effort and I'll show you the grace. Do something this off-season.
I don't have any issue with him sitting. Yeah the odds of him getting injured in the very last game are low, but not zero, and there really isn't anything left to play for beyond reps. He just secured the bag, he's proven his worth, he doesn't need the reps. Get a jumpstart on the offseason and make sure he comes back to spring training ready to go (if there is a spring training...)
ReplyDeleteWell, I agree with you that a team thinking "well, we actually wouldn't mind an extra loss" is pretty shitty regardless of the calendar or the standings, but I think the innings limit thing is real. At least real enough to give the team the benefit of the doubt on this one.
ReplyDeleteI mean, a 30% YoY increase would have had him shut down 2 starts ago and, if the team had done that, it would have seemed perfectly reasonable to me.
Maybe the timing around the extension is a little strange, and that might have a hidden explanation - like maybe Cavalli didn't want to be shut down during negotiations and it was a gray enough area medical-wise that the team didn't want to insist - but I'm not seeing anything nefarious afoot.
But I'm also one of the folks who defended the Strasburg shutdown despite the playoff race, so maybe I'm outside the norm on this issue.
Geez, Harper, get up on the wrong side of bed today? Judge injury got you down? The flip side of teams focusing on MORE VELO constantly is that now teams are much more cautious with arms. He's made 32 starts, has set a career high in innings thrown while finished strong, and now can focus on getting ready for a season that (hopefully) matters in 2027. I don't get how you how you get so judgy about this.
ReplyDeleteCavalli missing his last start? I’m fine with this. Now Cade can “sit down, boy!” (just couldn’t help myself).
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, no point in jeopardizing anything especially when the team is cooked. Hopefully he will have less of an innings limit next year? Would love to see him be a workhorse SP if those even exist anymore. He was great this season. With a staff of throwers, it was so fun watching him navigate a lineup every 5 days. Get after again next year, Cade.
Honestly, I think once they realized he was on track for 200 Ks, they decided to let him reach that before pulling the plug. Great milestone, good publicity, and after that, no reason to risk it further.
ReplyDeleteThis year, I’m okay with it, but more because the new FO has shown more competence than expected. Now (like Harper said), do more this offseason, and FFS don’t cancel games next year.
This is much ado about nothing. I didn't see any signs of a problem in Cavalli's last start. This feels like it's more about finding innings for Early, Herz, etc. than it is about concern for Cavalli's health. I am also sympathetic to the team wanting to make sure the one really good thing that happened on the pitching side of the house stays a good thing, at least for this year.
ReplyDeleteHe's signed an extension. He's got 200ks. A long string of quality starts. He's pitched more innings than anyone would have expected. No need to stretch him any more than necessary. I'd rather see him in the first week of October 2027 than the last week of September 2026.
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