tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post1046362845524235464..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Offseason Position Discussion : Outfield Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74091034435229535442017-11-15T07:17:02.087-08:002017-11-15T07:17:02.087-08:00I appreciate that, see my Yunel example. Selling h...I appreciate that, see my Yunel example. Selling high on Yunel was good since they went and got Murphy who was a clear upgrade and Yunel was a bad fit for being a bench utility guy.<br /><br />MAT is a talented and cheerful 4th OF so if you get another outfielder, you don't need to unload him. But you're really unlikely to get a player more valuable than MAT in a trade because everyone has basically the same idea about him--certainly a useful player and possibly a very good one. <br /><br />"Sell high on MAT" and spend money on another position, as Bx suggested, doesn't make sense to me because MAT doesn't cost any money (relatively) so you don't need to unload him to make budget room for a catcher or starting pitcher, and he has good value to the Nats in the outfield--especially if they spend their money not on the outfield. <br /><br />sirc said MAT could fetch "some young pitchers" but I think he could probably only be swapped for multiple non-prospects or a single fine but unremarkable prospect. I don't see how moving MAT, who is useful now and down the road, for a guy who may be better than him down the road makes sense for a team that apparently expects to make a run this year.<br /><br />Of course, if MAT becomes the core piece of a trade for Realmuto or some other player who fills a glaring need and/or is excellent, I'll eat my words.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-38357538960504616082017-11-15T06:14:12.615-08:002017-11-15T06:14:12.615-08:00Josh - I get that everyone basically sees the same...Josh - I get that everyone basically sees the same thing but the latest stats are what set the trend. MAT is a very good defender with power - Best case he really does hit like .280 + and he's your cheap CF for 3 more seasons. Worst case is he hits like .220 and is someone who fights off AAA talent for a 4th OF role. This hasn't changed. What has is that the latest stats suggest something closer to best case than worst case (as opposed to 2014-2016 with suggested right smack dab in the middle) That's all that's meant by selling high. Not that other GMs are fooled into thinking that MAT is a lock for a starting role but that they all have the same slightly positive buzz coming off of 2017 that Nats fans do. What does that get you in comparison to last year? Well it might mean the difference between an ok (non-closer) reliever and a good one, or a low A pitching prospect and a High A one. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62382729015070449052017-11-15T05:30:59.371-08:002017-11-15T05:30:59.371-08:00Re: "Sell high on MAT"
It seems like fa...Re: "Sell high on MAT"<br /><br />It seems like fans sometimes believe they are the only people who have eyes on their players. Does anyone truly believe that the 29 GMs who might make a move for MAT don't see a great defender with an atrocious K rate who had probably a fluky year at the plate? "Sell high" means "Yunel Escobar was worth 2 fWAR this year instead of replacement level like last year, quick, let's get no-good Trevor Gott and some minor league filler for him." GMs can look at fangraphs and watch video, and read beat reports and have every bit of information we have about MAT, then ask their trained scouts who see much more than we do. It's not like we can get anything more than mediocre for a player who has been, for his career, mediocre. And why are we trying to get rid of a solid defender who is arb-eligible for the first time? He's not dead weight, and the Nats really aren't likely to get much of anything for him in the offseason.<br /><br />Now, if an AL wild card contender loses their CF for the season in June, and MAT continues to play like 2017, he could have really substantial value at the deadline, and Robles will have had a few more months of seasoning. That, to me, is a time where urgency means the Nats can get a real return for MAT and I think it would make sense.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23853774092127734932017-11-15T04:00:42.293-08:002017-11-15T04:00:42.293-08:00Saying "I'm also not against considering ...Saying "I'm also not against considering a Stanton trade" is not the same as "heck yeah, let's go all in and go for Stanton." I'm interested only if the price is right. Most think the Marlins are delusional right now with what they're asking, unless they're going to kick in a lot of salary relief, which kind of defeats the purpose of trading him. Everyone knows that ownership has said that his contract has to go, so they're not bargaining from a position of strength.<br /><br />The huge, massive need for the Marlins is pitching, so I would think that conversations with them would begin with Fedde and Cole, maybe Seth Romero. Would those three plus Taylor get Stanton? I'd do that in a heartbeat. That may not sound like a world-beating package, but the Fish aren't going to get a world-beating package unless they're willing to kick in some salary.<br /><br />The Stanton story still has a long way to go. He has a full no-trade so has to approve anything. Despite all the scuttlebutt, I don't think he's going to the Giants because A) they suck, and B) they have nothing to trade. He's made it clear that he wants to go to a contender.<br /><br />Asking price on Martinez now reportedly 7/210. Yep, Boras is setting himself up to have to be trolling for a bailout deal in February!KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34321474567582299012017-11-14T21:39:03.838-08:002017-11-14T21:39:03.838-08:00Harper:
Your suggestion is interesting, but I’...Harper:<br /> Your suggestion is interesting, but I’m not a huge fan. What you don’t mention is JD Martinez is also a terrible defensive outfielder. Like...WELL under average, approaching Werth levels. If you plug him in the lineup looks excellent, but you have a pretty rough defensive outfield. If MAT comes anywhere close to replicating his year last year, believe it or not he and JD Martinez are not that different in terms of overall WAR value (one being a plus defender in CF, the other a liability in a corner.....this is why I see Martinez signing with an AL team, he’s just way more valuable there.) man OOB suggestion would be trading MAT along with other OF depth for a mid rotation starter type, and giving Robles the starting job in CF. Could he be not ready? Sure, although he didn’t look overwhelmed at all in his brief apparatance. So keep Goodwin in case Robles comes out of the gate as a disaster. But this is the time to deal MAT. His value will never be higher and his K rate remained as high as ever. Use the money you would on JD Martinez on an Alex Cobb/Lance Lynn type starter or a catcher. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-48886689662546152762017-11-14T14:50:58.123-08:002017-11-14T14:50:58.123-08:00Robles cannot, should not and will not be traded b...Robles cannot, should not and will not be traded because he could be good, very good, or great, but no matter what, he'll be inexpensive and under team control for many years.<br /><br />The Nats cannot and will not get Stanton. Miami wants top prospects. The Nats don't have top prospects, except Robles (see above).<br /><br />The Nats could trade Bryce. They won't and I'm not pushing for it. But, if you go by the old Nats theory -- get in the playoffs every year and see what happens -- trading Bryce for top prospects and an SP3 should be considered. The Nats don't need Bryce to make the playoffs. See 2016. The Nats will lose Bryce at the end of the season. So, sell now. Just make sure he goes to an AL team so that we won't see him unless we get to the World Series.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46872614424024439232017-11-14T11:07:42.188-08:002017-11-14T11:07:42.188-08:00I like MAT a lot. Also the Nats haven't put a ...I like MAT a lot. Also the Nats haven't put a premium defense on the field during the Rizzo era but Eaton, Bryce, and MAT would be a premium defensive outfield. <br /><br />That said, trading MAT right now could yield some young pitchers which the Nats desperately need. And I really don't want them to trade away Robles.sircnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-38262967885960067342017-11-14T10:30:49.641-08:002017-11-14T10:30:49.641-08:00I'm with KW's line of thinking, if you are...I'm with KW's line of thinking, if you are willing to sign JD Martinez for the $$ he'll probably want, just trade for Stanton!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55606997982657879762017-11-14T10:08:00.410-08:002017-11-14T10:08:00.410-08:00Fair enough, although a fair chunk of Cain's W...Fair enough, although a fair chunk of Cain's WAR value has been defensive. I'm talking more about replacing Bryce's offensive production. Of course trying to parse Bryce's future value is about to become a half-billion-dollar parlor game . . . (For the record, unless he has a monster 2018, I'm not sure he gets a contract much bigger than Stanton's.)<br /><br />My other concern about how Robles fits into the lineup is that the Nats already have two players like him in Turner and Eaton who derive much of their value from speed and defense more so than from significant power. Can you have too many of that type of asset, particularly in what seems to be the new age of the HR? I don't know.<br /><br />Robles's value as a prospect right now is enormous. I'm not necessarily advocating that the Nats trade him, but I also don't think he should be untouchable. He's not the next Bryce, though, and no one should expect him to be.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26626107657245837282017-11-14T08:03:22.153-08:002017-11-14T08:03:22.153-08:00Since Cain became a regular in 2013, he's been...Since Cain became a regular in 2013, he's been worth 20.6 WAR and Harper has been worth 23.2 over that same time period. If Robles becomes Cain (a big "if," but Robles has been a better hitter than Cain at every minor league level at a MUCH younger age), he would come very close to replacing what Harper has done over the past five years. This is different from what we might project Harper to do over the next five years, which is what Robles would actually be replacing. In any event, the "hole" between Harper and Cain is actually quite small.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20090972696981416232017-11-14T07:35:55.939-08:002017-11-14T07:35:55.939-08:00I started mentioning J.D. Martinez at the end of t...I started mentioning J.D. Martinez at the end of the season . . . back when I thought his price tag would be 5/100-125 or so. At $200M, forget it. Is Boras going to get $200M for him? If not, will he come crawling to the Nats in February with a much better deal? It's happened before . . .<br /><br />I see OF as the one real spot where the Nats could add an impact player. I don't believe in Taylor's "breakout" season at all, as he still struck out 31.7% of the time. A Danny-level K rate is a regression waiting to happen. I think the Nats should be looking to sell high on Taylor, be it as part of a deal for an OF or a starting pitcher.<br /><br />I'm also not against considering a Stanton trade. If he stays healthy, he's owed 3/77 and then opts out. That's A LOT less than Bryce is going to want, and perhaps less than even J.D. Martinez is going to get. Even if you pay Stanton his full contract, that's still A LOT less than Bryce is going to get.<br /><br />I'll add that I'm not as confident as some are that Robles is an elite player. In his chat a couple of weeks ago, Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs compared Robles to Lorenzo Cain (results-wise, not body type). If you look at their stats, it's a good comp. Cain has been a very competent MLB player, but he's only reached double digits in HRs twice. Even if Robles fully pans out--which is never a given--there's still going to be a huge production hole if he's "replacing" Harper.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-82755640612150568322017-11-14T07:04:48.118-08:002017-11-14T07:04:48.118-08:00Yeah my worry with JD is that you're then look...Yeah my worry with JD is that you're then looking at a really tough payroll situation. If you want to sign someone, bring in Bruce or Jackson who will cost you $10M/year less than JD (if not more) and will still give you significant production.<br /><br />My opinion is try and sell high on MAT for a prospect or two and bring up Robles. MAT right now is worth about as much to the Nats as Souza was, and look who they brought in return for that. Granted that was arguably the steal of the century, but I think Rizzo could still swing something positive out of an MAT trade.Friesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53151966454768158862017-11-14T06:47:55.067-08:002017-11-14T06:47:55.067-08:00Harper i understand your argument from an offensiv...Harper i understand your argument from an offensive standpoint. But MAT brings a defensive dimension that eaton and bryce do not. With MAT in there. you have PLUS arms at all positions and PLUS defense at two out of three with bryce being right around average. MAT was one of the leaders in defensive metrics in center. We are compensating defense for offense on the right side of our infield so it is important to be strong defensively in the outfield.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63333081241428440092017-11-14T06:41:54.478-08:002017-11-14T06:41:54.478-08:00I'd prefer if they got a more sound 4th OF - g...I'd prefer if they got a more sound 4th OF - given you have injury, injury, half a season out there, but I do think Goodwin has a better than 50% shot to be "first off the bench". Yeah - chances are a Martinez signing would lead to another deal but the OOB stuff is for playing around more than serious consideration. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34634142034777820902017-11-14T06:37:29.170-08:002017-11-14T06:37:29.170-08:00I see no mention of Goodwin; presumably he is the ...I see no mention of Goodwin; presumably he is the 4th OF in a number of these scenerios. Also, if they sign Martinez (which I like), either Harper or Robles doesn't stick around.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com