tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post1142987763540244827..comments2024-03-27T19:05:25.362-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Sellers? Ask yourself three questionsHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85784932645225376432018-07-26T09:12:05.137-07:002018-07-26T09:12:05.137-07:00The Dodgers would not give up a first line catcher...The Dodgers would not give up a first line catcher and #3 starter for a two-month rental. Again, look what they gave up for Machado: five prospects. And I think the Dodgers try to sign Machado long term. <br /><br />I agree that the Dodgers would love to avoid free agency when it comes to Haper. And yes, the Dodgers might trade a starting catcher and pitcher straight up for Harper for a full season or more. Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7920962925130683922018-07-26T09:06:24.209-07:002018-07-26T09:06:24.209-07:00I’ll just quote what Harper said in this post, and...I’ll just quote what Harper said in this post, and leave it at that: “Of course if you do trade him you lose that draft pick you'd almost certainly get for losing him. Teams love their draft picks nowadays, Nats included and that's probably a big enough factor alone to keep him here.“Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46272220723989289502018-07-26T04:36:26.440-07:002018-07-26T04:36:26.440-07:00Great outing by Tanner. I hope he's figured ou...Great outing by Tanner. I hope he's figured out whatever was wrong.<br /><br />Is it too soon to send Solis back down? This guy isn't good.Robotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40658070152427415872018-07-25T23:34:19.880-07:002018-07-25T23:34:19.880-07:00@Harper. I really see 4 realistic options:
1. Hang...@Harper. I really see 4 realistic options:<br />1. Hang tight and go for it this year, possibly with a modest buy of somebody like sort of coming off injury Ramos. <br />2. Sell off rentals, including Bryce if you can get decent value and benefit from just losing people to compensation picks (or no such picks) and that’s it....and try to reload for next year. <br />3. Say “forget 2019” let’s do a half rebuild for 2020. In this scenario you also trade rendon. Maybe Doolittle at waiver wire (or offseason) if he’s recovered. Maybe Eaton too. <br />4. The full enchilada. You say Max is available. Stras is available. Everybody is available, except for Turner, Soto, Robles, and Kieboom basically. This is the “shoot for 2021 and beyond” plan. I think it’s irrational. <br />I think that logic dictates either 1 or 2 is the most sensible. 4 frankly makes more sense than 3 though. You have Max and Strasburg in their primes only so much longer. Leaving them on noncompetive teams make no sense to me. So I think you either do a full rebuild of everybody but the young core, or you try to flip the roster over and see how you do in 2019. As I’ve said above, I think that any team with Robles, Soto, Turner, and Kieboom on the way, plus Rendon for a year and possibly willing to sign extension, plus max and Stras leading the rotation has what it takes to build on it with supplements and be competitive for next few years. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-60975015645585441052018-07-25T23:14:13.352-07:002018-07-25T23:14:13.352-07:00Ric: what are you talking about? If compensation d...Ric: what are you talking about? If compensation draft picks were as good as prospects you get back in rental trades, nobody you would offer a QO to would ever be traded as a rental. Of course you could get something back for Bryce that’s more valuable than a comp pick. Compensation sandwich round picks are not good picks. Harper would 100% return at least one promising prospect. It’s possible you wouldn’t get a blue chip top 30 prospect back, but you would certainly get something better than you’d get as a compensation pick. And you could specifically ask for prospects who are close to the major leagues. A Chapman rental returned Gleyber Torres. Machado rental returned one top prospect and 4 others. Do I think the a former MVP and the current NL leader in home runs and walks would return a Gleyber Torres or as much as Machado’s return? Maybe not quite. But that’s the point. You see if somebody like say Cleveland or the Astros is willing to trade a top 40 prospect for Bryce. If not, don’t deal him. If yes, consider it. But I’m sorry. Your claim that the Nats are better off with a compensation draft pick over what Bryce would get in a trade is just flat out wrong. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63880650182384913582018-07-25T21:06:55.550-07:002018-07-25T21:06:55.550-07:00@Ric, Bryce wouldn't be a two month rental for...@Ric, Bryce wouldn't be a two month rental for the Dodgers in my world. They'd jump at the chance to sign him to a new long term contract and avoid free agency. Bryce should easily buy us a first line catcher and a #3 starter. This season is an aberration. He's going to win two or three more MVPs and every GM in baseball knows it.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9498797377815275762018-07-25T18:36:07.086-07:002018-07-25T18:36:07.086-07:00I think the competition is probably Acuna in ATL. ...I think the competition is probably Acuna in ATL. He gets a lot of attention because he’s an exciting talent but also because ATL as a story this year. I would say that if you getting invested in the Soto for ROY race, Acuna is currently behind Soto but could easily win it if he puts together a big last two months with better health. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-41059125619260687882018-07-25T18:32:57.679-07:002018-07-25T18:32:57.679-07:00Harper: I disagree that next year the Nats are unl...Harper: I disagree that next year the Nats are unlikely to contend. Given how quickly Rizzo moves players, I would expect Kieboom to play most of next year as the second baseman. You can’t count on him being good. But you can probably count on him being better than Difo, who is bad. I don’t believe you need to sign a FA to play 2B. Joe Ross will be returning and will effectively be replacing Gio in the rotation. Of course his health is a question mark, but still, he’ll be back. The Nats also have the best hitting rookie in baseball who also happens to be 19. You can say “it’s unlikely Soto will be a monster next year.” Thats true. It’s also true that what he’s doing is unprecedented, so I think you can count on him replacing a decent chunk of what Harper brings offensively, even if he doesn’t replace all of it (the fact is, Harper has been a truly big-time middle order offensive player in only one season that the Nats made the playoffs: last year. I like Soto’s chances of lessening the sting of Bryce’s departure from the lineup. Robles will be up. How good will he be? I don’t know. But he’s supposed to be pretty good, and it seems like young players are reaching their potential earlier than ever these days, especially with respect to power/pop (thanks juiced baseball). Catcher is an enormous problem. We need to sign one. End of story. But where exactly are the gigantic holes on the team? I see one at Catcher and I see the same rotation depth issues we had this year and we need some relievers. To contend next year I think the Nats will require some luck with performance of young players and fewer injuries than usual, but I think they can. And I most certainly think they can in 2020, although extending rendon would help. But yeah. I’m not as pessimistic about the next few years. It won’t be a waltz to a division title OBVIOUSLY but I think the team will be tough. If you include Turner with Soto and Robles, which rebuilding team has a better core of 3 young position players to work with? Not many. And then you have two monsters at the head of the rotation, though it would be helpful if strasburg performed well and could remain vaguely healthy before max turns into a pumpkin. And kieboom looks more and more like a decent regular. They need to fill in the rest of the team, but starting at .500 before you add any FAs and before you consider anything you would get from Ross or Kieboom, etc is a perfectly fine place to be. I don’t think the Nats would be wise to do anything resembling a tear down. And I’m also perfectly comfortable saying *right now* that the chances of them making the playoffs in 2019 is higher than it is in 2018 at this point. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-54133754834296264032018-07-25T14:08:09.201-07:002018-07-25T14:08:09.201-07:00Huzzah - yes. there is not eligibility issue for t...Huzzah - yes. there is not eligibility issue for the season you are playing in, only that you haven't played too much before this season (and Soto hadn't played in the majors prior to 2018) <br /><br />Now bc the question comes up - the fewest games played to win a ROY is Willie McCovey with 52 (219 PA) in 1959. In recent years Wil Myers and Ryan Howard won it with barely over half a season of games. <br /><br />Froggy - take that Hasenpfeffer Incorporated<br /><br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62504026185706049102018-07-25T13:52:20.974-07:002018-07-25T13:52:20.974-07:00Harper,
Nats win one in Laverne and Shirley-ville...Harper, <br />Nats win one in Laverne and Shirley-ville. Mission accomplished?Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55676391817177063152018-07-25T13:05:47.496-07:002018-07-25T13:05:47.496-07:00Is there any rookie having a better season than Ju...Is there any rookie having a better season than Juan Soto? Will he be eligible for rookie of the year voting?Huzzah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/03728993885000677878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-92230602540299584032018-07-25T12:51:04.265-07:002018-07-25T12:51:04.265-07:00What can you get for Harper? I'd bet you might...What can you get for Harper? I'd bet you might get a couple AA pitchers that have issues like injury and will need to be converted to relievers. Especially ones rehabbing and that are at least a year away. And then next July, the team would at least have a chance at not scrambling at the deadline and trading six years of control for a rental. Would be great to be the one giving up the rental even for a lottery ticket of six years of a cost-controlled middle reliever. Also, losing Harper might not hurt the team's playoff chances all that much, and it would let Harper see what it's like playing for the Cardinals. Might even give the Nats a discount after his experience away. So, sell something that you won't miss too much for a low upside chance at a couple relievers. Also, the projections are positive on the Nats because on paper, they are pretty good. That suggests luck or chemistry as issues - maybe a trade helps with that?billyhackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01147372135927774269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-91054571508847020502018-07-25T12:10:47.578-07:002018-07-25T12:10:47.578-07:00This is perhaps a .500 club, but I'm not reall...This is perhaps a .500 club, but I'm not really convinced that the Braves and Phillies aren't too. The biggest deal could be the one you avoid making. Anyway, you'd have to hope for some kind of Cardinals luck to win anything this year.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-17994032244639057962018-07-25T12:03:33.572-07:002018-07-25T12:03:33.572-07:00I could still see an August waiver deal for a pitc...I could still see an August waiver deal for a pitcher coming if they rattle off a few good weeks and get closer. But that wouldn't require anything but a C prospect.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26653787489620764682018-07-25T11:48:53.838-07:002018-07-25T11:48:53.838-07:00On balance, the Nats should stand pat. If they ha...On balance, the Nats should stand pat. If they have an opportunity to pick up someone who has a contract that extends through 2019, they should consider doing so because they can, and should, be contenders next year. But no rentals. And if they have the opportunity to sell high, they should consider that too. But as the Machado trade shows, you can't get that much in return for a two-month rental. Still, the O's got a nice haul of prospects, but then Machado is more valuable than any player that the Nats might sell, including Bryce.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-84685432170300650742018-07-25T11:36:22.962-07:002018-07-25T11:36:22.962-07:00@SammyKent said:
"Then I'd send him to t...@SammyKent said:<br /><br />"Then I'd send him to the Dodgers for say, Austin Barnes and Alex Wood."<br /><br />There's no way the Dodgers (or any other team) are trading away anyone on their 25 (or 40-) man roster for a two_month rental. Let alone multiple players on their roster.<br /><br />Look at Manny Machado to the Dodgers for perspective. They gave up five prospects, and only one of those was an MLB top-100 prospect.<br /><br />That's the fallacy of everyone who argues we should trade Harper. Realistically, the Nationals are much better off losing Harper in the off-season and gaining a compensatory pick, than any prospect that may or may not pan out in 2021 at the earliest that the Nats would get in a trade now.Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58267626927711307622018-07-25T10:47:49.373-07:002018-07-25T10:47:49.373-07:00Honestly, I can't make myself believe this tea...Honestly, I can't make myself believe this team will make the playoffs. It's more likely they keep playing meh and stay around .500 and we'll be watching who can take on Boston or Houston in October. <br /><br />I agree with a few of the other guys here, that next year could be a Carter Kieboom tryout in major league camp, and later this year, maybe we'll get a good look at how Joe Ross is coming back...<br /><br />and Kubla: Bwahahahaha<br /><br /> CoolMoeStevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47209610553528466262018-07-25T09:51:01.229-07:002018-07-25T09:51:01.229-07:00Good post, and well thought out.
Selling doesn&#...Good post, and well thought out. <br /><br />Selling doesn't seem that appealing, since you want to try again in 2019 and the rentals aren't that valuable at this point. I do think that the Nats can be contenders in 2019 with a couple of smart free agents signings and/or trades and/or Kieboom makes it to the show next year and does OK. And yes, don't forget Joe RossG Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-14354249409089370962018-07-25T09:35:42.301-07:002018-07-25T09:35:42.301-07:00"Murphy is coming back from injury and pitchi..."Murphy is coming back from injury and pitching poorly. Same with Wieters." I think we've figured out what's wrong with the rotation. Kublanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46360402411147906932018-07-25T09:34:26.823-07:002018-07-25T09:34:26.823-07:00What about Howie and Joe Ross? Ross will have a sh...What about Howie and Joe Ross? Ross will have a shortened season but it will still add value. Howie is a solid 2b until Kieboom comes up. Then you have a chance to get back Ramos this winter. From there you can move Jefry into the bullpen, get a pitcher or give Fedde a full chance in the majors, Zimm is 50/50 on a great season or a terrible one, but I'm okay with those odds. We can't have a ton of injuries like we have the last few years but some year you've gotta not have the most injuries in baseball. Am I wrong to think that's a team that can fight it out with the Phillies and the Braves?<br /><br />Scherzer, Stras, Roark, Joe Ross, ?. <br />Eaton, Turner, Soto, Rendon, Robles, Howie, Zimm, C, P. <br />Trust in Rizzo on the bullpen.Cooper Roarknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72580784878518354932018-07-25T09:32:21.479-07:002018-07-25T09:32:21.479-07:00I think we're done. Look to next season and be...I think we're done. Look to next season and beyond. Don't be afraid to make the blockbuster trade....exactly what Mike Rizzo is deathly scared of. I would have already been talking to Scott Boras saying we either sign Bryce long-term now and get it done or we're trading him. Then I'd send him to the Dodgers for say, Austin Barnes and Alex Wood. Get Rendon signed for the long term.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-5322323761846793062018-07-25T08:39:42.943-07:002018-07-25T08:39:42.943-07:00Gabe Roark - sure but if you do that why not trade...Gabe Roark - sure but if you do that why not trade Rendon? Doolittle? Maybe Eaton? Kintzler is good, affordable and could help you next year. So the trade would be saying "we don't care about next year" <br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-39731294670476081082018-07-25T08:30:05.980-07:002018-07-25T08:30:05.980-07:00There's a tear in my beer after reading this p...There's a tear in my beer after reading this post. I really thought this was going to be a good year. Horrible way for Gio, Murph and Bryce to go out.Jon Quimbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939096664895272304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65121269978002403192018-07-25T08:25:40.677-07:002018-07-25T08:25:40.677-07:00What about trading Kintzler? Glover is almost back...What about trading Kintzler? Glover is almost back and there is no spot available currently other than solis who can be optioned. He has an additional year of control and may actually bring something back and you wouldnt sacrifice a whole lot in terms of still going for this yearTreaples69https://www.blogger.com/profile/04875053153656460229noreply@blogger.com