tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post1917562191577785629..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Tuesday Quickie - Nats'll do pigHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46240151555439562952016-06-01T07:35:29.385-07:002016-06-01T07:35:29.385-07:00The discussion on replacing Danny with TT at short...The discussion on replacing Danny with TT at shortstop presumes there won't be an injury or two in the coming weeks, a wildly optimistic thought. The odds are there will be, and TT will come up to fill a specific need (Zimm and Rendon being the two most likely candidates to visit IR). After which, if the kid hits and runs well, we can have that discussion with more than just guesswork to make our case with. Regarding Danny, my casual observation was that he made at least one play, possibly two, last night that could have been the been the difference in a one run game. If I'm Dusty, I let nature take its course. Flapjacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19112552976614864502016-06-01T06:27:07.082-07:002016-06-01T06:27:07.082-07:00One note about calling up Giolito is that Ross may...One note about calling up Giolito is that Ross may be on some kind of innings limit, so there's the chance to have Giolito come up in Aug-Sep to replace him if everything else goes well and Gio remains non-explosive.<br /><br />As many other people have said, the only reason to not DFA Drew when Turner is called up is if (1) Espinosa is actually a "clubhouse cancer" when not starting (something that honestly, I don't give a lot of credence to--and which, well, isn't that what we're paying Dusty Baker for in the first place, his ability to manage a clubhouse?) or (2) Dusty gets hung-up on Drew's veteran winnersauce. Espinosa offers speed as a pinch-runner, the ability to play anywhere in the IF at a high level, and specifically can play Gold Glove-level defense at 2B, which is a nice thing to have in the late innings when Murphy is the starter there. Better defense, better baserunning, more versatility, and yes, better bat (by wRC+, Danny is 64, Drew 54).DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67063266909206768042016-05-31T23:02:39.934-07:002016-05-31T23:02:39.934-07:00Can we please keep destroying Danny in the comment...Can we please keep destroying Danny in the comments? It may have helped tonight. Certainly, Stephen Drew got an unexpected boost since our pessimism (rather than neglect) was directed at him today.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57779666584043877222016-05-31T20:43:19.981-07:002016-05-31T20:43:19.981-07:00Was Danny batting R or L when he hit the lazer ton...Was Danny batting R or L when he hit the lazer tonight?Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36478420229887262792016-05-31T20:21:21.877-07:002016-05-31T20:21:21.877-07:00Because Danny is out of options I believe. Even if...Because Danny is out of options I believe. Even if he wasn't, he's preferable to drew. Both of them are basically zeroes at the plate. But Danny can steal you a base off the bench. And he's a more versatile, better fielder. That's basically it.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36801765252327488652016-05-31T20:12:43.699-07:002016-05-31T20:12:43.699-07:00Sorry. Meant to address Chaz. I'm Bx. Ha.Sorry. Meant to address Chaz. I'm Bx. Ha.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81631317021091956172016-05-31T20:12:05.615-07:002016-05-31T20:12:05.615-07:00Bx: right. The problem with your argument in my op...Bx: right. The problem with your argument in my opinion is that we have SOME ability to quantify the value of defense relative to offense, if you look at stats like defensive runs saved and fWAR and total WAR. Having a defensive edge over a player is not remotely close to as valuable as an offensive edge, although it is important. Like....we can quantify it decently. Consider: how many spectacular non-routine plays does Danny even have a chance to make every week? 2? That's why it's important but not AS important (in that time Danny has like 30 plate appearances). So defense is important. But make no mistake: if you have two shortstops who are pretty close to average at the position, you should play the better offensive player. That's what the metrics tell us Danny is. hes probably in the 60th percentile of major league SS defensively and the 1st percentile offensively. Trea according to scouts has a better glove and a weaker arm, and is likely comparable on D. MAYBE a bit less good. I appreciate Danny is a good shortstop. But he is a beyond unplayable hitter. Even if we assume Danny is a better defender, playing him over Trea would be like playing---just an example--Michael Taylor in CF over Revere (if we think of revere as he is generally regarded, a .300 hitter with zero power or walks).....a marginally better defender (Taylor) over an adequate defender who can actually hit major league pitching.<br /> BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-2417747638310909382016-05-31T18:00:24.787-07:002016-05-31T18:00:24.787-07:00I don't think the Nats have any chance to sign...I don't think the Nats have any chance to sign Desmond this season. Tigers are definitely not going to be sellers. That ship has sailed.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02187223786678971077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30020353416237017842016-05-31T17:11:15.316-07:002016-05-31T17:11:15.316-07:00@Bx- Ok, not arguing on the potential offense upsi...@Bx- Ok, not arguing on the potential offense upside with TT. I think there is a tendency to overestimate offense over defense. It's understandable given the obvious run production etc. I think all the TT over Danny folks need to ask themselves if TT could make the plays Danny is making is this Philly's game- ???<br /><br />It sounds like Im arguing for Danny over TT- I'm not. I just don't think there is a clear appreciation for Danny's defensive value oner TT.Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26212692916926467022016-05-31T16:49:51.687-07:002016-05-31T16:49:51.687-07:00...and right on queue Werth jacks one out of The B......and right on queue Werth jacks one out of The Bank!<br /><br />Where is Robot!Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-6247670413280483262016-05-31T16:00:46.905-07:002016-05-31T16:00:46.905-07:00Like I mentioned at end of previous post, do the N...Like I mentioned at end of previous post, do the Nats consider going after Desmond as an OF at end of season? Or maybe trade at deadline? <br /><br />IMO Desmond would be better defensively than Werth, and definitely better offensively than Werth, MAT, and Revere. <br />Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-91161906320916249292016-05-31T14:17:16.189-07:002016-05-31T14:17:16.189-07:00Bryce out of line of after the HBP. Rizzo should ...Bryce out of line of after the HBP. Rizzo should take this opportunity to ink a multiyear deal. Harper is in a slump and might appreciate that he is one bad (hopefully not intentional) pitch away from no payday.JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81878779946265065772016-05-31T13:44:33.949-07:002016-05-31T13:44:33.949-07:00@Donald, the reason Espi is preferable to Drew is ...@Donald, the reason Espi is preferable to Drew is that while neither is any good at hitting, Drew is ghastly in the field and Espi is an excellent injury stop-gap off the bench in that he can play all 4 infield positions from between competently to very well and hit (well, swing) from both sides of the plate. If I'm the GM I keep him and lose the money to Drew before I cut Danny. I'm sure Rizzo is looking hard for a team willing to hand over a mediocre prospect for Drew in the next week and a half or so, because I agree that paying Drew not to play would really chafe.<br />@PhthePhillies, I was thinking the exact same thing as I was filling out an all-star ballot today. I stopped paying attention to Desi when he was well below the Mendoza line at 3 weeks or whatever. He's obviously interested in getting paid after all. Very happy for him.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-71482626775424716052016-05-31T13:32:34.211-07:002016-05-31T13:32:34.211-07:00There is no good argument for leaving Trea Turner ...There is no good argument for leaving Trea Turner in AAA at this point. He is as ready as he is ever going to be. The comparisons between him and Danny Espinosa are relevant only in that they underscore the latter's offensive deficiencies. Does anyone doubt that Turner is the shortstop of the future? Has anyone doubted that Espy is there only to hold the position until Turner is ready? <br />Well, there's nothing Turner or the organization is getting out of keeping him in Syracuse anymore. In other words, he's ready and the future is now. He may never pan out to be the star we're hoping him to be but, with a lead in the NL East, a relatively "easy" schedule ahead, and an offense consisting mainly of Daniel Murphy and a lot duct tape, there is no reason to wait any longer to find that out. <br />For me, the only question is whom do I send down, Drew or Espy?<br />By the way, looks like this decision would be harder if Desi were our shortstop. Has anyone seen his numbers lately? Holy cow. Looks like 2012. Good for him. Glad it's working out. <br />PhthePhillieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06345592363018885789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-27523194107507861972016-05-31T13:30:17.184-07:002016-05-31T13:30:17.184-07:00@BxJaycobb -- not sure DFAing Drew is the obvious ...@BxJaycobb -- not sure DFAing Drew is the obvious answer. He's guaranteed $3m and is Danny really an upgrade on the bench over Drew? I'm not saying Drew is any good at all. But if Danny is a "horrendous, gaping hole" it's hard to argue that he's much better. And if the Nats can keep both he and Drew in the fold by sending Danny down, maybe that's the better answer, particularly if there are concerns about Danny's demeanor when not starting. <br /><br />If Danny's out of options, then DFAing Drew is the right answer, though. Does anyone know?Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30641422676870090912016-05-31T13:04:53.041-07:002016-05-31T13:04:53.041-07:00Finally....just to respond to something JC said: F...Finally....just to respond to something JC said: Fans often think of swapping out a non star for a non star as not that appreciable an upgrade...i.e. not as big an upgrade as a solid regular for a star. It's actually the opposite. The difference between horrendous gaping lineup hole and competent bat (meaning a .260/.330/.420 hitter) is actually MORE valuable than the jump from average regular to "all-star type." Don't underestimate how much better a lineup can get by filling the giant holes. Basically what happens is the innings where you usually see Espinosa, P, Revere (a guy hitting with bases empty and 2 outs, i.e. a lost inning), suddenly becomes a possible scoring opportunity. Plus, opposing pitchers tire faster as well, because there's no super-easy outs/breaks in the lineup. FP always says "where's the let-up in this lineup?!?" to which I always scream "Danny Espinosa, FP, god!...and Werth, while you're at it!" AGAIN. I will emphasize I am NOT saying Turner will immediately over first 3 weeks be a .260 hitter with extra base pop and tons of steals. Here's what I AM saying, based on multiple scouts' takes that I have read. If you leave him in the lineup for rest of the year, he will be, at MINIMUM, a .240-.250 hitter who is more of an extra base threat as Danny due to same pop with more contact, and a crazy annoying pest to pitchers on the bases, who will play almost as good defense as danny, possibly just as good. (NOTE: Keith Law thinks that although Danny has a stronger arm, that Trea Turner has much softer hands/better glove and range). In other words, Turner will get you 2 more wins over rest of year. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26221237310349327692016-05-31T12:45:22.255-07:002016-05-31T12:45:22.255-07:00I think we will see Reynaldo Lopez before we see G...I think we will see Reynaldo Lopez before we see Giolito, unless there's an injury to a starter (or Gio totally implodes, as I think is perfectly possible....he is in my view easily our worst starter and will end season with highest ERA of them). Lopez I think could really help the pen.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61105690428580729632016-05-31T12:42:18.747-07:002016-05-31T12:42:18.747-07:00Sorry. Corresponding move is Stephen Drew DFA/waiv...Sorry. Corresponding move is Stephen Drew DFA/waivers. Not complicated. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-32701136769601813032016-05-31T12:38:50.658-07:002016-05-31T12:38:50.658-07:00Chaz:
Um no. It's not a major risk that TT won...Chaz:<br />Um no. It's not a major risk that TT won't hit. Here's why: (1) Danny already doesn't hit. And I don't mean doesn't hit as in he's not a good hitter. I mean he's hilariously horrendous at hitting a baseball. And yes. This is what Danny can do. Look at this career. He's not a major league hitter. (2) I mean, scouts don't always agree. But they agree Trea Turner is at worst going to be a mediocre but acceptable bat at SS. (i.e. better than Danny). Now, can I guarantee you that Trea Turner will hit something like .250-.260 IMMEDIATELY? no. That's preposterous and silly. And the same reason Turner's performance last year is meaningless. Mike Trout hit worse in his first 40 PA in the majors than Turner did. It's just not many ABs. Turner may not be a good hitting SS. It's possible. But even if he isn't, and is merely a below average hitting shortstop, that's better than Danny. (3) Finally, no. He's not a major downgrade defensively. Danny isn't Brandon Crawford/Andrelton Simmons. He's an average MLB shortstop defensively. Seriously. Everybody needs to abandon the "Danny is a gold glove SS" train, despite the amount of times FP screams it. It's nonsense. His metrics say he's a perfectly fine one. And Turner looks like he will be a perfectly fine one too, maybe a tiny downgrade. But that doesn't make up difference between a person who hits like a crappy hitting pitcher and a person who hits like a major league infielder. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37720400366694140762016-05-31T12:32:53.617-07:002016-05-31T12:32:53.617-07:00I think Rizzo and the Nats know that Turner is the...I think Rizzo and the Nats know that Turner is the shortstop of the future. There really isn't any competition between Turner and Espinosa at this point. The only question is around the timing and I think there are 3 drivers behind that.<br />1) Nats want an extra year of service time from Turner so they will wait until early June. In this regard, they would probably wait a week or so more just to avoid the appearance that they were holding him back just to gain that year. <br />2) They want to make sure he's really ready, so when he gets called up, he stays. Boswell had an interesting stat in his chat today that showed almost all shortstop prospects get between 1200-1600 ABs in the minors before they are called up. TT has just under 1000. So there may be a school of thought that he could use more seasoning.<br />3) What's the corresponding move? I don't think this is as big as the first two issues, unless Danny is out of options. They probably don't want to lose either Espinosa or Drew and get nothing back. So if Danny's out of options, there may be a wait while Rizzo tries to figure out what to do with one of them.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61265734760108836522016-05-31T12:29:12.320-07:002016-05-31T12:29:12.320-07:00@Z11 - Even the fancy stats like Roark so far. His...@Z11 - Even the fancy stats like Roark so far. His BABIP is a little low (.269) but not egregiously so. His K rate is higher than ever, so is his BB rate to be fair. His ground ball rate is great, and the highest it's ever been. So that works out to a pretty good looking FIP of 3.55, and his HR rate has actually been a little high so his xFIP (which uses a league average HR-rate) still looks good at 3.58.<br /><br />We used to say (only somewhat facetiously) on here that he was Tanner "Smoke and Mirrors" Roark but it looks like he understands his repertoire very well. From my watching of his starts this year he's gotten comfortable throwing that sinker all over the plate, including inside to lefties which I think is the cause for the uptick in his K rate. He's also using his changeup more, so he's got a much better overall line against lefties (.193/.307/.271) then he did when he was a reliever last year (.293/.359/.507) and even his great 2014 (.234/.291/.381).<br /><br />There's nothing particularly fluky about his numbers that are certain to result in a violent regression. And you're right it would be foolish to bump him at this point for Giolito. But it offers a certain comfort that if one of our starters DO implode between now an (knock on wood) October that we have the #1 pitching prospect (lol, Urias) waiting in the wings.Bjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55325541887702893862016-05-31T12:15:47.473-07:002016-05-31T12:15:47.473-07:00I'm with Bx. There's simply no performance...I'm with Bx. There's simply no performance-based rationale to prefer Danny to TT at this point. TT's "meh" performance during his call up last year was in a grand total of 44 plate appearances, i.e., ten games. Notwithstanding that this is an absurdly small sample (and from it we cannot draw any reasonable inferences about how well he'll do), he still was appreciably better at the plate than Danny is now.<br /><br />Danny's defense is fine, and there may be reason to think it's better than TT's (there are scouts that think otherwise, too), but it's inconceivable to me that any difference in defense would make up for TT's MUCH better bat. Danny would have to be Andrelton Simmons quality on defense for that to be true, and he just aint. <br /><br />The Nats are a better collection of players with TT in the lineup as starting SS. There may be chemistry issues with making a change, and I won't pretend to know how those shake out. But until TT is playing shortstop every day, the Nats are choosing to field a worse team.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20335941823538135062016-05-31T12:14:21.877-07:002016-05-31T12:14:21.877-07:00Does anyone know if Espinosa still has options lef...Does anyone know if Espinosa still has options left? I'm assuming if Turner were called up, they'd either have to send Danny back to Syracuse or cut Drew and eat the remainder of his contract. I'm guessing they'd demote Danny but not necessarily if he'd have to pass through waivers.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58229995292753722182016-05-31T12:06:39.387-07:002016-05-31T12:06:39.387-07:00Stras has given up MORE hits and MORE earned runs ...Stras has given up MORE hits and MORE earned runs than Roark! And so the logical thing to do is to call up Giolito and move Tanner back to the pen right? :(Zimmerman11https://www.blogger.com/profile/14524103974207323535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40377759848280280302016-05-31T11:56:13.915-07:002016-05-31T11:56:13.915-07:00Everybody (myself included) is high on SS's pe...Everybody (myself included) is high on SS's performance so far in 2016... look how similar his numbers are to one Mr Tanner Roark! Yes, lots less K's... Harper what do the fancy stats say? Particularly interesting given this would be TR's SECOND year of 2.50 ERA results.<br /><br />PlayerW L ERA G GS S SO IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG WHIP<br />Schrz 5 4 4.05 11 11 0 0 73.1 58 33 33 15 22 90 0.217 1.09<br />Stras 9 0 2.69 11 11 0 0 73.2 60 22 22 6 20 90 0.221 1.09<br />Roark 4 4 2.70 11 11 0 0 70.0 57 26 21 5 26 62 0.222 1.19<br />Gonzo 3 3 3.57 10 10 0 0 58.0 56 27 23 7 17 53 0.251 1.26<br />Ross 4 4 2.52 9 9 0 0 53.2 49 18 15 4 16 41 0.247 1.21Zimmerman11https://www.blogger.com/profile/14524103974207323535noreply@blogger.com