tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post2196921215229633827..comments2024-03-28T08:02:23.114-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Weekend Placeholder 2 : Place HarderHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26357926442229723452018-07-17T19:44:27.519-07:002018-07-17T19:44:27.519-07:00Machado to the Dodgers. Whew!Machado to the Dodgers. Whew!G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58816294559185846872018-07-17T19:37:36.968-07:002018-07-17T19:37:36.968-07:00That makes sense. So I would think Fangraphs would...That makes sense. So I would think Fangraphs would be a more accurate prediction then, which is good for the Nats.<br /><br />https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55528166608582765382018-07-17T13:31:00.066-07:002018-07-17T13:31:00.066-07:00G Cracka: Fangraphs is still using mostly projecte...G Cracka: Fangraphs is still using mostly projected performance, 538 is basing it all on the Nationals' actual performance (but I think based mostly or entirely on record as adjusted by strength of schedule, not looking to components or runs scored vs. runs allowed).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-68384615223634405262018-07-17T13:29:55.230-07:002018-07-17T13:29:55.230-07:00PotomacFan: I agree with you. Just thought that R...PotomacFan: I agree with you. Just thought that Realmuto would be the only "get" that would make a real difference (unless there's another Verlander out there). Your point about Robles' low salary is well taken; Realmuto is bound to get a big bump each year in arbitration, so that would eat up money, too.<br /><br />I think they should hold onto Robles, and strengthen the team through free agency and Kieboom. I don't know what the odds are that the Nats hit on Soto, Robles, AND Kieboom, but they might!<br /><br />They could flip a couple of relievers to get some minor league depth back.<br /><br />Sadly, despite our lofty expectations this year is not looking like the Nats' year.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65161184078837201502018-07-17T12:15:36.708-07:002018-07-17T12:15:36.708-07:00Fangraphs says that the Nats have a 59% chance of ...Fangraphs says that the Nats have a 59% chance of making the playoffs, but 538 only gives them a 28% chance. I wonder why the large disparity.G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-60650911434590219512018-07-17T09:58:41.669-07:002018-07-17T09:58:41.669-07:00I just don't see any way that the Nats trade R...I just don't see any way that the Nats trade Robles for Realmuto. 2.5 years of control v. 5 - 7 years of control -- and a low salary for Robles. The Nats have plenty of hitters in the line-up. They would be fine with a catcher who can hit .240 - .250 and call a good game. And, I don't think Realmuto puts them over the top for this year, unless he can also pitch every 5th game. And I always worry about catchers getting injured and missing significant time. I think it's better to have a decent catcher and a decent back up catcher (which, clearly, the Nats did not have for most of this year -- and it really hurt them).<br /><br />So, I think the Nats pretty much hold still at the trade deadline. For next year, they need to sign Rendon, get a catcher, and get two pitchers. (That's a lot.)PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-71605678673871687552018-07-17T09:54:53.153-07:002018-07-17T09:54:53.153-07:00Yes, I think that makes sense.
Right now, the 201...Yes, I think that makes sense.<br /><br />Right now, the 2019 roster looks like this:<br /><br />Starting Position Players: C Kieboom, 1B Zimm, 2B Kendrick, SS Turner, 3B Rendon, LF Soto, CF Robles, RF Eaton<br /><br />Starting Pitchers: Max, Stras, Roark, Ross, Fedde/Rodriguez<br /><br />Bullpen: Doo, Kintzler, Glover, Grace, Suero, Solis, Gott<br /><br />Bench: Difo, Taylor, Goodwin, Marmolejos, Severino/Reed<br /><br />I think that team would win about 79-80 games if healthy. Again, this is just the 'base'. You could easily get to upper 80s and possibly even to low 90s with free agent signings at C, SP, Bench, and Bullpen plus a Carter Kieboom mid-season promotion to the show.G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83726025023858255792018-07-17T09:43:53.796-07:002018-07-17T09:43:53.796-07:00I agree that we should hang on to Robles and start...I agree that we should hang on to Robles and start him in 2018 and re-load through free agency in the key areas that need improvement (get a decent but cheap catcher, sign at least one really good starting pitcher, extend Rendon if possible).<br /><br />However, if the Nats do trade for Realmuto now it would be a huge upgrade and since it would be two-plus years, I could almost live with losing Robles (but just barely) if we keep Kieboom and any other really good prospects. Frankly, I think getting someone as good as Realmuto is probably the ONLY chance for 2018. He might not be enough, but he fills a huge hole. I don't how good he is at calling a game, but he's probably one of the top three catchers in the game right now, if not #1.<br /><br />But mostly I say wait till next year--flip some relievers for some good prospects if you're out of in August, hold on to Robles as an inexpensive, controllable starter for 2019, and use all the payroll space to add to a very good core.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77819025278377509142018-07-17T09:34:01.583-07:002018-07-17T09:34:01.583-07:00I don't know. Roark was a disaster in the pen ...I don't know. Roark was a disaster in the pen back in 2015. Granted, he's a disaster as a starter right now, too...Robotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87847494929718580752018-07-17T07:49:11.844-07:002018-07-17T07:49:11.844-07:00Realmuto probably brings back more than Robles, bu...Realmuto probably brings back more than Robles, but maybe Robles and a few B level guys?<br /><br />I'm also inclined to keep Robles and sign a catcher in the offseason. Also, do you think the Nats would trade for a pitcher and move Roark to the 'pen?G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-10951041373564918882018-07-17T07:10:31.304-07:002018-07-17T07:10:31.304-07:00The scuttlebutt was that Wieters was a Lerner/Bora...The scuttlebutt was that Wieters was a Lerner/Boras thing that was more or less foisted on Rizzo. Wonder how it would have panned out if Rizzo had stuck with his Derek Norris plan, and then had more money to play with when he didn't work out.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-71979620628836685702018-07-17T07:07:08.489-07:002018-07-17T07:07:08.489-07:00That was epic. His dad came through with a steady ...That was epic. His dad came through with a steady diet of meatballs when BRYCE needed them.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85559738319936401242018-07-17T03:33:33.272-07:002018-07-17T03:33:33.272-07:00Bryce hits 45 home runs at Nats Park last night! W...Bryce hits 45 home runs at Nats Park last night! Wow!G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-41723345417008757402018-07-16T18:08:08.623-07:002018-07-16T18:08:08.623-07:00Jon Quimby: Interesting point about Wieters, who ...Jon Quimby: Interesting point about Wieters, who despite his weak offense may have made a difference during the June meltdown. Maybe Gio would have not been so bad. No one's really saying it, but Severino's demotion, followed by an article questioning his "future in the organization," makes me wonder if Rizzo and Martinez think Sevi was at least partly responsible for the meltdown.<br /><br />The Nats sit 5.5 back, 6 in the loss column. Strasburg missed approximately 6 starts. The Nats have been about .500 in his starts, so let's say they could have gone 3-3 in his starts and would be only 2.5 back. Let's say Wieters plays instead of Sevi and Gio is okay and the Nats go 2-2 instead of 0-4 during his losing streak. So now you're 0.5 out.<br /><br />I am NOT a fan of Wieters, but clearly Sevi was below replacement level, and the Nats blew it at catcher for two years when they signed Wieters. That one is on Rizzo/Lerners, I guess. There were cheaper guys who are always good for about 1 or 2 WAR out there. Some of them go up and down (Avila, Castillo, Suzuki), but they are cheap, so you have resources to replace them. This was a big mistake--first tying up so much money in Wieters and second having no viable backup.<br /><br />As for Strasburg, I think he will miss six starts a year going forward. I think you pencil him in for 26 or 27 starts and 12 to 15 wins. They should just plan on that; so they need a much better #3-4-5 situation. I hope they keep Hellickson and address the other two slots aggressively. I would LOVE a #2 kind of guy to bolster the rotation.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87634625631814461942018-07-16T13:26:41.051-07:002018-07-16T13:26:41.051-07:00I don't know about Robles for Realmuto. Didn&#...I don't know about Robles for Realmuto. Didn't the Marlins originally want Robles AND Soto? So, I don't if just Robles is enough and I'd rather deplete the farm even further. Our outfield for the future is set up to be Soto (LF), Robles (CF), and Eaton (RF) with MAT off the bench. I like that lineup. There are also some questions. As good as Soto is now, is he going to crash? Will Eaton stay healthy? Will Robles pan out? But even still, Kieboom should be up by middle of next year and I'd like to think that our only hole then would be catcher. I see this as another run of young controllable talent that can keep us relevant, so I'm all in favor of keeping these pieces intact in DC. Additionally, assuming we can extend our hot hand of finding a 1B placeholder for an unreliable anchor contract in Zimm, this isn't a bleak outlook at all. So that's my argument for leaving Realmuto in Miami.<br /><br />On the other hand, as I've mentioned before, there are so few stellar catchers out there. You can go grab or draft a plethora of talent that most likely will pan out. But behind the dish? That is so rare to find, especially at Realmuto's level of production. He's 27 with 2.5 more years of control. Similar to why we gutted out top-tier pitching talent for Eaton: productivity, control, and low cost.<br /><br />I don't know what you do, but I think I'm more inclined to go after this guy in the offseason where we aren't in such a desperate situation to "save the season," as it might already be lost. Does anyone think we could negotiate a better deal once this season concludes? Ole PBNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64925999074727075392018-07-16T12:11:50.013-07:002018-07-16T12:11:50.013-07:00I agree as well. To clarify my comment, by 'se...I agree as well. To clarify my comment, by 'sell' I only had in mind expiring assets as I think that 2019 can still be a good year for the Nats.<br /><br />Here's an interesting article:<br /><br />https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/nl-east-notes-realmuto-nationals-eovaldi-anthopoulos.html<br /><br />If you take over Rizzo's job and the Marlins offer you Realmuto for Robles, do you take the deal?? All hypothetical, I know, but still interesting.G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12887330761852034352018-07-16T10:52:40.246-07:002018-07-16T10:52:40.246-07:00^^^100% agree with it all, Dezo.
I found myself h...^^^100% agree with it all, Dezo.<br /><br />I found myself having heretical thoughts this weekend. The jogging to first on a double play (granted, it wouldn't have mattered), the really dumb, situationally unaware throw to 3rd on a base hit to center that ended up costing the team a run... I thought, "Bryce, stop making me hate you. I don't want to hate you."<br /><br />I know he's a huge asset that we will miss dearly when he's mashing for some other team... but the little stuff irritates me, a lot.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-39433971950916702732018-07-16T10:33:23.890-07:002018-07-16T10:33:23.890-07:00The good news is that the Phillies and Braves are ...The good news is that the Phillies and Braves are simply not supposed to be this good and we should expect some regression in the other direction. The bad news is that 5.5 games is 5.5 games. The Nats have to play like the team they're supposed to be, not the team they've been thus far. (Added to the problems, teams like the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies are all there looking at the WC slots as well, so it's not just enough for the Nats to get their act in gear.)<br /><br />Regarding G Cracka X's comment, taking a long-term selling position would be pointless: Soto, Robles, Eaton, and Turner are all high-grade, cost-controlled assets. Rendon and Doolittle will be around next year. Scherzer's signed long-term. Strasburg is signed long-term and isn't likely to opt out given his recurrent health issues unless the Nats punt on the future. That's far too much quality to abandon long-term.<br /><br />However, if the team continues to crater through the next couple of weeks, I think Rizzo may well unload some expiring assets if he can get more for them than a QO would bring. For example, I wonder if, say, Houston would be interesting in renting a Bryce Harper* for the stretch run? Gio would be one of the more attractive possibilities in the rental-pitcher market. Madson might help somebody's pen if he recovers his form. Heck, maybe he can get somebody to give a lottery ticket prospect for Wieters if better options like Cervelli and Ramos keep getting hurt and the Nats eat the remaining salary. But that's a worst-case scenario.<br /><br />*Win or lose, I still think that the Nationals are better served trying to extend Rendon than Harper, unless Soto totally falls off a cliff over the end of the year or Robles's injury is something awful and career-trajectory-threatening. The team has too many holes to sink huge amounts into Harper at a position that's not of need.<br /><br /><br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53943737935171430092018-07-16T07:49:11.918-07:002018-07-16T07:49:11.918-07:00I'm seeing a lot of positive signs, but I thin...I'm seeing a lot of positive signs, but I think it's just going to be too late. I expect a few big hot streaks coming up.<br /><br />I think Wieters calls a really good game. He's not a great defensive catcher, but pitchers seem to have better results. The only explanation is that I'm imagining things or he calls a great game. Jon Quimbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939096664895272304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29358600198515450182018-07-16T07:38:32.214-07:002018-07-16T07:38:32.214-07:00OK, so based on everyone's analysis, should th...OK, so based on everyone's analysis, should the Nats be selling then? Or holding, just in case they got a hot 2nd half combined with a Braves cold 2nd half and a Phillies cold 2nd half?G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-71899141930364698282018-07-16T06:47:35.032-07:002018-07-16T06:47:35.032-07:00One factor that makes the Nats' situation more...One factor that makes the Nats' situation more difficult is that Philly and Atlanta both have the cap space and resources to add significant help to their teams. The Nats don't. I know Machado may wind up out of the NL East, but there are other upgrades out there and I expect both teams to add much more than the Nats can afford to or are willing to. The Nats rarely add payroll in-season and this year their situation is even tighter.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90462709857235394412018-07-16T06:28:24.217-07:002018-07-16T06:28:24.217-07:00Both the Phils and Braves need to screw it up for ...Both the Phils and Braves need to screw it up for the Nats to get anywhere. It's a very safe bet that 90+ wins will be required. <br /><br />From here on out:<br /><br />If the Phils and Braves play .500 ball, they get to 86 wins. One of them, maybe. Both of them? Highly unlikely.<br /><br />The Nats need to go 42-24 to get to 90 wins. I believe that's a 103-win pace. Doable, yet unlikely.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90784630726656896822018-07-16T06:27:58.914-07:002018-07-16T06:27:58.914-07:00So many things need to break right for us to get b...So many things need to break right for us to get back into it:<br /><br />Strasburg and Doolittle need to come back from injury soon and continue pitch well when they do.<br /><br />At least some of the underperfoming pitchers (Gio, Roark, Herrera, Madson) need to step it up and return to at least career norms.<br /><br />Murphy needs to hit the damn ball. (At least he's on an upward trend.)<br /><br />C needs to not be a sucking chest wound. Wieters has dropped 20 points off his wRC+ since returning to the lineup, plunging below Taylor and Murphy into Difo territory, though remaining above Severino and Kieboom. (For illustration purposes, Taylor's 81 wRC+ is still higher than Sevy and Kieboom's added together.)<br /><br />Otherwise, I'm not sure what else there is to do. Harper is still an above-average hitter; with Soto, Eaton, and Taylor he helps make up a fine 4-man outfield. Rendon is one of the best players in the league, Taylor is good, and the Adams/Reynolds and Adams/Zim platoons at 1B produce excellent offense; it's just a matter of Davey being willing to keep the platoons going instead of just giving Zim the job outright. Rizzo already traded for Herrera to help the pen, who immediately fell into a hole. I'm not sure if an SP is available to bounce Roark (Hellickson has been adequate as a #5 while being used carefully, though you'd like to see someone go deeper in games). That just leaves C, and everyone's known that was an issue since before the season started, plus with Ramos hurt (there's a familiar phrase; I'm used to his injuries hurting the Nationals but now he's managing to pull it off when he isn't even on the team!) there isn't a lot of value out there on the market at the position.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57152796753046091322018-07-15T18:47:02.079-07:002018-07-15T18:47:02.079-07:00@GCX
5.5 out:
It's 2013, make a couple middl...@GCX<br /><br />5.5 out:<br /><br />It's 2013, make a couple middling seller-esque moves that don't matter in the end. <br /><br />It's 2015, make a couple middling buyer-esque moves that don't matter in the end.<br /><br />It's 2018, make a couple middling ????-esque moves that don't matter in the end.Kublanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52311147554877978932018-07-15T18:39:35.354-07:002018-07-15T18:39:35.354-07:00"Are they 3-4 games out? YOU GOTTA BELIEVE. A..."Are they 3-4 games out? YOU GOTTA BELIEVE. Are they 7-8 games out? YOU GOTTA CONCEDE" - Harper<br /><br />What about if they're 5.5 games out? You gotta.....play right up to the trade deadline to see if you're a buyer, seller, or holder?G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.com