tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post2637007223950173700..comments2024-03-28T08:02:23.114-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: The midnight trade for Ben RevereHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24541088493961186162016-01-13T05:34:13.939-08:002016-01-13T05:34:13.939-08:00If Werth, Rendon and Zimm can stay healthy and hit...If Werth, Rendon and Zimm can stay healthy and hit, that should alleviate some of the pressure on Bryce. Not a ton of power, but all three have shown that they can drive in runs. A big outfield bat would have been great, but it's not like you can really criticize Rizzo that harshly for assuming/hoping that these guys should have better years -- even if all three are huge health risks. <br /><br />If the Nats thought the Revere trade would make the team significantly better, then the negativity and criticism is probably warranted. But there's every possibility that this was the best deal they could get using Storen and without having to give up much else. I don't have much faith that AJ Cole or Difo or some others are going to be good major league players, but the Nats might. And if you weren't willing to move Storen and prospects, were you really going to get much more than Revere?<br /><br />Storen had to be traded given his cost and the situation on the ground. Paps really should be traded, but that might be more difficult -- both finding a trade partner and finding a replacement closer (internally or externally). JWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47902335835531512142016-01-12T21:05:46.667-08:002016-01-12T21:05:46.667-08:00I'm probably in the minority, but I look at th...I'm probably in the minority, but I look at the signings thus far as addressing a need the Nats showed to be in need of improvement: Hitting for contact.<br /><br />Murphy adds about 40-50 points in BA over Danny's best efforts. Revere adds 50-60 BA points over MAT. <br /><br />How many times did we howl at the TV or radio when Desi/Danny/MAT left runners on by generating hurricane force winds in the batter's box? Just hitting for contact with Revere and Murphy will be worth 1-2 hits more per week. If that amounts to wins, so much the better.Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30310815438374169922016-01-12T09:16:20.000-08:002016-01-12T09:16:20.000-08:00Given that FA outfielders are still not being sign...Given that FA outfielders are still not being signed I don't see why we wouldn't try and get a deal this year on Uptown on Cespedes. We still do not have the "big bat" that Harper is asking for so he won't be walked a million times this year. JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37140312592007072452016-01-12T07:54:42.538-08:002016-01-12T07:54:42.538-08:00I think it is a set up for a trade. Word on the s...I think it is a set up for a trade. Word on the street Colorado is going to sign Gerrardo Parra. Why? They already have three lefty outfielders. I am hoping this means that Rizzo is going to keep Revere as a 4th OF and go get another OF from Colorado. MAT may now be trade bait. Also, why not chase John Lucroy? Then Ramos could go. Finally, why not trade for Andrew Miller. He's a dominant lefty closer and a good clubhouse guy. A closer that is a good teammate - who knew... <br /><br />Anyway, if none of those trades go though then it looks like Rizzo is copying the Royals model to a degree. Lots of lefties and high contact rate - low strikeout rate. With the Mets current rotation - 3 dominant strikeout righties, that's not a bad roster construction.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61110290836055344302016-01-12T07:52:50.223-08:002016-01-12T07:52:50.223-08:00@DezoPenguin: True, but Storen didn't choke th...@DezoPenguin: True, but Storen didn't choke the NL MVP last year; he just plain choked.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30706524694880541772016-01-12T07:48:27.097-08:002016-01-12T07:48:27.097-08:00Maybe the Nats could invent a new defensive tactic...Maybe the Nats could invent a new defensive tactic wherein Revere throws to Harper, who guns down the runner. It may actually be faster to do it this way than to have Revere throw the ball directly.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66532617224537376162016-01-12T07:47:59.675-08:002016-01-12T07:47:59.675-08:00Am I the last person to realize the title of this ...Am I the last person to realize the title of this post is a play on the ride of Paul Revere?Dmitri Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02086802838823495057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-54746751282661028692016-01-11T14:42:01.095-08:002016-01-11T14:42:01.095-08:00This thread is a great example of why this is the ...This thread is a great example of why this is the <b>only</b> place on Al Gore's Amazing Internet where I read the comments section. Another good post made even better by insightful readers, complete with William F Buckley-esque 50 cent words.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSftABlOixc<br /><br />Happy to see more lefties, and more speed and contact in the lineup, after (what seemed like) too many ill timed strikeouts (<i>ahem</i>Desmond, low and away 3x) and double plays (<i>ahem</i>Escobar and Ramos). These are steps in the right direction. Defensively scary, yes... but no scarier than Desmond in April and May, and Escobar in April, May, June...on through to October. Besides, when Turner is ready at short, he can cover shallow centerfield from the dirt.<br /><br />One would think MAT will play in later innings, frequently. We saw how easy it is to run on Revere when he was in Philly.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13441911976409508462016-01-11T13:29:58.252-08:002016-01-11T13:29:58.252-08:00For years this blog has crushed Rizzo for failing ...For years this blog has crushed Rizzo for failing to acquire adequate bench depth. Seems like he is finally trying to address this issue, no? Robinson, Revere, Drew... you gotta give Rizzo some credit for trying. These moves aren't game changers. They aren't even about upside. They're about downside mitigation. Seems pretty sensible to me.Pescadonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19650501102555524072016-01-11T12:58:48.548-08:002016-01-11T12:58:48.548-08:00@DezoPenguin
Saunders or Pompey--Toronto needs to...@DezoPenguin<br /><br />Saunders or Pompey--Toronto needs to draft a Caesar and a Crassus, too--comprise the obvious reason the Jays could dispense with Revere. And indirectly, so too was Colabello's bat. (Very funny reference, by the way; as I'm sure you know, Colabello hit righties far better than the left-handed Smoak.)<br /><br />My principal concern with Revere is the almost universal presumption that he'll play center field. And if, miracle of miracles, Werth's health permits him to play 130 or so games? The prospect of Revere and Werth being responsible, technically, for two-thirds of the outfield is enough give any attentive fan the willies.<br /><br />True, Taylor might be the designated late-inning defensive replacement. But by then, it may already be too late. SMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52184359129763632172016-01-11T12:41:42.537-08:002016-01-11T12:41:42.537-08:00Some of the fans in Toronto may think they won the...Some of the fans in Toronto may think they won the deal "hands down" (although the comment threads that I've seen on various baseball sites like MLBTR and MLB sure don't reflect that as the prevailing view). Some Nats fans don't like the deal. I'm OK with that. FWIW, when I was listening to MLB Radio yesterday two of their talking heads (I'm not sure which ones, alas) thought the Nats clearly won the deal.<br /><br />I think it was a good trade for both teams, but I don't really care how well the Blue Jays did on the deal. As I said up thread, any time you can deal in one expensive year for a relief pitcher for multiple years for a decent position player, that's a prima facie win even before one gets to the PTBNL. With Rivero, Gott, Kelley, and even Treinen, the Nats have enough power arms to put together a solid back end of the bullpen in front of Papelbon. John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4620966245740806462016-01-11T12:38:52.236-08:002016-01-11T12:38:52.236-08:00@ Harper - "You take your meaningless singles...@ Harper - "You take your meaningless singles. I'll take the guy who gets on base the most. The thing would be - if you think MAT can improve to ~.240 with a few more walks the OBP for him or Revere would be a wash."<br /><br />I disagree - unless you think that MAT hitting .240 could somehow up his OBP to .330-.350 (60 points!) - because that's where Revere is. So you would take Revere? Glad we agree :)ProphetNATnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20055524518634559472016-01-11T12:25:53.290-08:002016-01-11T12:25:53.290-08:00Harper -- Thanks! (Due to your remark, I took the ...Harper -- Thanks! (Due to your remark, I took the time to look up both UZR and DRS and educate myself a little more on how they work, so you've imparted more than just a single answer there.)DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13078297970666313582016-01-11T12:07:26.194-08:002016-01-11T12:07:26.194-08:00Dezo - UZR doesn't work like that. If a player...Dezo - UZR doesn't work like that. If a player next to you makes a play on a ball it is not your failure, only his success. I suppose if a player next to you "stole" enough plays that you would make it could have a detrimental effect on the UZR but it would still be hard to rack up negative UZR that way. It would only limit your positive score. Plus if you were really good you should make it up on the other side. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34833918881801167942016-01-11T12:02:38.544-08:002016-01-11T12:02:38.544-08:00The Nats were never going to simply hand MAT the k...<br />The Nats were never going to simply hand MAT the keys to CF. The step-down from Span last year was too great and a constituted big risk going into the offseason. That said, the clubs that do best over time develop their own stars. If you believe in MAT, then Revere looks like the right deal. Revere provides reasonable insurance against the possibility MAT doesn't fix his strikeout problem in 2016. But his relatively modest cost also suggests the club can afford to let MAT displace him in the starting lineup -- possibly on day one -- which would not be the case with a Cespedes or Upton. An even better deal would have been to re-sign Span for two years (as the timing of the Revere trade may indicate).Flapjacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37909100662797015042016-01-11T11:22:13.599-08:002016-01-11T11:22:13.599-08:00That said, I do think that Toronto "won the d...That said, I do think that Toronto "won the deal" in this sense--they already have two guys (Saunders and Pompey) ready to step into LF in Revere's place and provide an expectation of similar production, while Storen improves their bullpen. The Nationals get improvement in the lineup from Revere, but do not have a guy ready in the pen to replace Storen's talent level (headcase/bad-blood narratives aside). So Toronto dealt from strength to shore up weakness, while Washington just shifted the location of a question mark from one part of the team to another (though Rizzo is to be commended for getting a useful player out of a situation where the personal dynamics made it almost imperative that he get either Drew or Papelbon, if not both, out of town).DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24680760787355380972016-01-11T11:17:35.258-08:002016-01-11T11:17:35.258-08:00The irony of SM's comment about Revere playing...The irony of SM's comment about Revere playing next to Pillar is that 2015 Pillar is basically MAT's upside: low BA, respectable-to-good power, speed on the basepaths when he does get on base, and effing stellar defense, adding up to a solid four wins. Repeat: upside. (I'm actually surprised that Toronto fans would take a negative note of Revere's defense as well, given that he replaced Chris-I would be at first base if management didn't adore Justin Smoak-Colabello and Danny Valencia out there (plus Slide-and-Miss Carrera).)<br /><br />On a side note--I wonder sometimes if measures like UZR actually penalize outfielders who play next to great ones because when Pillar makes a play that is estimated to be Revere's ball it goes down as a failure for Revere. McCutchen next to Marte would be another question like that though in that case Marte's the better defender... Though the Royals don't seem to get penalized like that when they have Gordon-Cain-Dyson simultaneously...<br /><br />A quick and dirty glance at the 2015 Nats shows that only Bryce, Yuney, Span, Robinson, and Rendon got on base more than Revere. Two of those guys are now gone. A third is a backup. And in an ideal world, Rendon will hit second and Harper hit fourth (though Baker may hit Harper third). Say what you want about predictable roles, but I'd rather have Revere's .330-.340 OBP hitting in front of those guys than any of the alternatives we had before we got him. (Werth and Murphy were the only reasonable alternatives, and Werth's suitability there is predicated on his bat getting back to 2014-ish levels...and if Werth can hit like he did in 2014, the vast majority of the Nats' predictable lineup problems are over anyway.)<br /><br />Of course, I would prefer a healthy Span to Revere, but then, if we thought Span was going to be healthy Rizzo would at least have extended him a QO.<br /><br />Lastly, I'm going to put it bluntly: I don't at all see how the Nationals "screwed over" Drew Storen. Compare, for example, the Yankees. They traded for Aroldis Chapman. The assumption, when you trade for a top-grade reliever, is that you're going to use him to close. Miller just had one of the greatest closing seasons of all time, and yet no one in the NY press is saying how the Yankees screwed over Andrew Miller. No one in the Boston press is saying how the Red Sox screwed over Uehara by bringing in Kimbrel. No one was talking about KC screwing over Wade Davis by giving Holland the 9th inning slot back when he came back from injury (they did talk about it being potentially dumb when Holland was hurt and ineffective, but that's performance-based). Heck, we didn't say that we "screwed over" Tyler Clippard in 2012 by giving Storen the closer job when Drew came back from injury! Rizzo tried to improve a disastrous 'pen in 2015 by trading for a top-flight closer. Yeah, we didn't *need* a new closer because "closer" wasn't broken, but seriously, either (a) we live in an analytics world and recognize that having two great pitchers at the end of the game is a good thing to have, and the 8th inning may end up being the highest leverage of the game anyway depending on circumstances, or (b) we live in a traditional narrative world and Storen needs to "man up" and not be a whiny baby so that the team as a whole can improve.<br /><br />(In other words, Papelbon acts like an asshat and he gets called an asshat. Storen acts like Papelbon* and we're told it's the team's fault.)<br /><br />*Other than physically assaulting a teammate, but on the other hand, it was Storen, not Papelbon, who put a Washington National on the DL with a punch thrown in a fit of petulant emotion.<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4825016968446958162016-01-11T10:49:04.367-08:002016-01-11T10:49:04.367-08:00Minor correction...penurious
pe-nu-ri-ous:
from ...Minor correction...penurious<br /><br />pe-nu-ri-ous:<br /><br />from The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 4th Edition<br /><br /> adj. Unwilling to spend money; stingy.<br /> adj. Yielding little; barren: a penurious land.<br /> adj. Poverty-stricken; destitute.<br /><br />from Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License<br /><br /> adj. Miserly; excessively cheap.<br /> adj. Not bountiful; thin; scant.<br /> adj. Impoverished; wanting for money.<br /><br />from the GNU version of the Collaborative International Dictionary of English<br /><br /> adj. Excessively sparing in the use of money; sordid; stingy; miserly.<br /> adj. Not bountiful or liberal; scanty.<br /> adj. Destitute of money; suffering extreme want.<br /><br />cite: https://www.wordnik.com/words/penurious<br /><br />I love this blog!<br />Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-91852832924194800212016-01-11T10:38:21.150-08:002016-01-11T10:38:21.150-08:00First off, kudos to John C. for the word of the da...First off, kudos to John C. for the word of the day: pernurious! <br /><br />Second, seems a tad odd that some (cough, Harper) are griping about a guy who gets on base better, hits for average better, steals more bases, and strikes out less than MAT. Don't get me wrong, I love the potential power of MAT and his range and glove (other than that bases loaded inside the park error he allowed last year) are all plus. But, right now, today he isn't ready. <br /><br />That said...I think Donald's last comment is pretty right on. I think speed and the legitimate threat of a stolen base and possible subsequent throwing error can have more of a 'get in everyone's head' effect than if the guy at bate might hit a dinger.Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-73735167086037224892016-01-11T10:26:17.497-08:002016-01-11T10:26:17.497-08:00It's worth noting the last two acquisitions we...It's worth noting the last two acquisitions were #1 (Murphy) and #7 (Revere) in lowest K-rate last year. That's also two positions now where you're replacing high-K guys (Espinosa, MAT) with low-K guys. Given how much of the Royals' success was attributed to their ability to stay alive and put the ball in play, I don't think this is an accident. ocw5000https://www.blogger.com/profile/02490387895214583856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-82884827032488632362016-01-11T09:56:19.311-08:002016-01-11T09:56:19.311-08:00It's hard to measure, but it seems when a disr...It's hard to measure, but it seems when a disruptive base runner is on, the pitcher gets distracted with multiple throw-overs and attempts at changing timing, infielders cheat to certain positions, catchers are more reluctant to call for pitches in the dirt, outfields play shallower, etc. that it has a positive effect on the subsequent batters. I guess there's a flip-side of batters taking a good pitch if the runner gets a good jump, but overall, I like the idea of having Revere on with the heart of the order coming up, even if he doesn't actually steal a base. It would be nice if he'd learn to walk a bit more, though, to up that OBP.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-5914862630818598352016-01-11T09:56:10.961-08:002016-01-11T09:56:10.961-08:00I agree with you, Harper.
I would also argue that...I agree with you, Harper.<br /><br />I would also argue that our increased interest in calculating the value of a player has failed to adequately include stolen bases into the equations. We tend to state their OPS,OBP, SLG, OPS+, etc, and then add "with speed" at the end of our argument.<br /><br />Let's say we did (I will concede totally erroneously) calculate 80 of his singles as double, to conclude my (again, somewhat erroneous) argument that he isn't simply a singles hitter because he steals a lot of bases. Then his combined slugging % for 2014 and 2015 becomes .439, and his OPS becomes .769 for the same period.<br /><br />Those are NOT accurate numbers. But, again I would argue, neither are his actual values in those two categories because he did steal those 80 bases. For some players, Ben Revere included, a single isn't always just a single. sircnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63014342156249263172016-01-11T09:54:53.460-08:002016-01-11T09:54:53.460-08:00You have to get guys on base and into scoring posi...You have to get guys on base and into scoring position. Particularly if you are hoping to maximize the value that Bryce, Rendon and (healthy) Zimm offer. I don't necessarily care if its MAT, Revere, Turner, whoever. The Nats offense (other than Bryce) was way too streaky last year. You have to have guys who consistently get on base. Singles, walks, whatever. I hope MAT can become better at the plate, but he wasn't anywhere near good enough last year.<br /><br />Sad to see Storen go. Yes he was hosed. But there really wasn't any way back. I have to assume Rizzo did the best he could given Storen is only a one year player for the receiving team. He didn't have to give up any prospects, just eat some cash.JWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12312019406246830252016-01-11T09:47:45.709-08:002016-01-11T09:47:45.709-08:00Wait, what? Ben Revere in CF, either as a starter...Wait, what? Ben Revere in CF, either as a starter or to platoon? Has no one ever watched him play left field, never mind center field?<br /><br />When Revere played LF in Toronto, CF Kevin Pillar probably got to more balls in LF than Revere did. Only the presence of one of the best defensive CFs in baseball permitted the Jays the luxury of sending Revere out in the field. <br /><br />I suspect the acquisition may be a concession to Dusty's unwavering, speed-on-the-base-paths fundamentalism. And when Dusty raves--and he will, beginning with "speed never slumps"--about how many extra runs Revere's speed has generated, who will be counting how many runs Revere's defense will cost?<br /><br />(Incidentally, the growing consensus here in Toronto is that the Blue Jays were the decisive, if not overwhelming, winners of the deal. Some hometown, jock-sniffing chauvinism, to be sure, but that's the way it's viewed.) SMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64952729233041019752016-01-11T09:43:40.599-08:002016-01-11T09:43:40.599-08:00sirc - two things - (1) Some of those singles were...sirc - two things - (1) Some of those singles were sorta-doubles because of what you say, some were also sorta-triple I bet. Of course some of them were sorta-outs then too. Plus not every SB come from a single. Some come from walks, some from FCs, some from errors. It's just easier to separate these things. He hits a lot of singles. (eh) He runs the bases real well. (great!) and go from there (2) It also does matter if they are "true singles" because that drives in fewer runs, moves runners over less. <br /><br /> Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.com