tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post2856311177407936286..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: How do I like them Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52074974803932488762016-12-11T17:06:57.145-08:002016-12-11T17:06:57.145-08:00I'm all for Eaton/Turner at the top of the ord...I'm all for Eaton/Turner at the top of the order. Turner has more pop, and so makes more sense batting #2. Eaton is a consistent .360+ OBP guy with no pop, and so makes perfect sense batting leadoff. The concern about "clogging the basepaths" in front of a basestealer is silly. First of all, even with a .360 OBP that means that for most of Turner's at bats Eaton won't be on first. Peel away Eaton's XBH (he only had 14 HRs, but also had 29 2b and a league-leading 9 3b) and you have even fewer at bats where Turner has Eaton on first. And stealing bases is just part of baserunning; Eaton is one of the best in baseball at taking extra bases and not getting thrown out. He's in the top ten in MLB by FG's baserunning metric over the past two seasons. So for a lot of Turner's singles Eaton will be going to third. It also means that Eaton will be scoring on Turner's XBH. The impact on Turner's base stealing opportunities will be minimal, and offset by the advantage of better leveraging Turner's extra base hits with someone on base - as well as breaking up the LH batters. <br /><br />Nor is there an advantage to be gained with a LH batter hitting second to take advantage of the hole created by the 1b holding the runner. Not with these players, anyway. Eaton is a slap/spray hitter, and has one of the lower pull percentages in MLB. <br /><br />Eaton/Turner/Harper/Rendon/Murphy/Werth/Zim/catcher/pitcher is the way that I'd line them up, at least to start the season. Of course, I fully expect Baker to bat Turner leadoff because WHEEE! FAST! Fortunately lineups don't matter that much ... John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-701242929303860602016-12-11T10:14:16.926-08:002016-12-11T10:14:16.926-08:00There's no way you bat someone with TT's s...There's no way you bat someone with TT's speed anywhere but leadoff. He can create a run out of a walk, an HBP, an error, a bloop, with only a good AB from the number 2 or 3 hitter. Will want to watch Eaton play every day before making a final determination but from what I've read he certainly looks like he can handle the bat and hit second.ClassOf87noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57167172733817938762016-12-11T10:05:56.961-08:002016-12-11T10:05:56.961-08:00I want Turner to lead off until he proves he can&#...I want Turner to lead off until he proves he can't. Haven't seen much of Eaton but he would seem to go deep into counts and allow Turner to run. As weird as it is to have three lefties in a row, it's probably just Harper that it affects a lot. I can see Rendon breaking them up putting Harper fifth sometimes.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46099812829990247302016-12-11T09:57:57.441-08:002016-12-11T09:57:57.441-08:00Woof. The Angels' 30th prospect is probably as...Woof. The Angels' 30th prospect is probably as likely to pitch a major league inning as anyone who has ever posted on this board. Given his stats, he's more likely to take innings from a pitcher with something going for him.Total salary dump. I hope this was a "where do you want to go, and we'll see if they'll take you deal."I kept hearing about Tampa, but I guess they wanted $$. Difo can play short, but they'll probably aim higher.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61139181005292310162016-12-11T06:12:34.172-08:002016-12-11T06:12:34.172-08:00I like dropping TT down in the order. Eaton allows...I like dropping TT down in the order. Eaton allows the team to have a tablesetter at the top. It also takes some pressure off TT in year two. The lineup can obviously be changed later when TT has shown last year was not a fluke. I like something like:<br /><br />Eaton (L)<br />Murphy (L)<br />Rendon (R)<br />Harper (L)<br />Werth (R)<br />Turner (R)<br />Zim (R)<br />Norris (R)<br />Pitcher NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-10091629274499813542016-12-11T06:08:34.157-08:002016-12-11T06:08:34.157-08:00Lots of ways to view the Eaton trade, but here'...Lots of ways to view the Eaton trade, but here's one that hasn't been mentioned yet: the new CBA. Beginning next year, when teams won't automatically lose a 1st rounder for signing high profile FAs, salary caps should loom larger as a constraint on roster design. Most of the moves made this offseason have had an economizing air to them. <br /><br />There is a method to Rizzo's madness; we just have to figure out what it is.Flapjacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67038291246167025122016-12-10T22:10:25.130-08:002016-12-10T22:10:25.130-08:00Espinosa now a Los Angeles Angel. With Danny at 2...Espinosa now a Los Angeles Angel. With Danny at 2B, that's going to give Simmons more ability to shade towards 3B and cover for Yuney's crappy defense. (...The fact that Espinosa was a clear upgrade to the Angels' 2B *offense* from 2016 is kind of mind-blowing.)<br /><br />The two prospects coming back basically look like org filler. Maybe something might come of them, maybe not, but at least we get salary relief ($5-6M more to throw at Jansen!) and Danny was already in sulk mode following the trade. I don't think Difo plays SS, so we may be looking to bring back Drew or another utility infielder type, though.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45722292064559666232016-12-10T15:34:41.576-08:002016-12-10T15:34:41.576-08:00I hope you're right about the prospects. For ...I hope you're right about the prospects. For Giolito and Lopez, one washout and one mid-rotation or good relief guy would be a nice "we won the trade, but didn't completely screw over the other team." (Dunning I don't care about. He might or might not be good, but he won't be good during the next three years, and we're firmly interested in winning now.)<br /><br />I have reasonable confidence Eaton will be, if not necessarily six-win good (he'd need to be back in right field for that), but at least equal-to-Dexter-Fowler-but-younger-and-much-cheaper good. What I don't know--but would like--is to be reassured that the Nationals' front office has a sound estimate of the true value of our own prospects. Rizzo hasn't hit on all of his signings and trades, but he also hasn't yet traded away guys that became superstars to haunt us.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-75386145437225713302016-12-10T08:07:38.929-08:002016-12-10T08:07:38.929-08:00I have an idea for batting order with L/R balance,...I have an idea for batting order with L/R balance, mostly. Please expose its flaws so that I can stop thinking about it. (One flaw is obvious, but I'll explain my reasoning below.)<br /><br />Eaton (L)<br />Rendon (R)<br />Harper (L)<br />Turner (R)<br />Murphy (L)<br />Werth/Resurgent Zim (R)<br />Non-R Zim/Werth (R)<br />Lobaton (S)/Norris (R)<br />P<br /><br />Not batting Trea lead-off is predicated on his expected Year Two regression and his lousy BB rate. Might at well take advantage of his power and give him some protection with Murphy. And the three ahead of him have speed, so he unclogs the bases even with a single.<br /><br />Another predicate is that I do not want Rendon batting 4th, his spot in most line-up proposals I've seen. He looked miserable and tight batting 5th after Ramos went down. He hit .150 in that slot during the NLDS and K'd at least twice with runners on in key situations. (Granted, he did homer off Maeda in Game 3, but ... Maeda.)Gregorynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34647727763029008802016-12-10T06:19:18.243-08:002016-12-10T06:19:18.243-08:00I don't think so. Trea is one of the two best...I don't think so. Trea is one of the two best base-stealers in MLB. Assuming that he maintains a high OBP, I would have him bat first. He then has the opportunity to steal second, get pushed to third, and score without a base hit. By contrast, Eaton is not much of a base stealer. Sure, he gets some steals, but he also gets thrown out a fair amount.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61492237052319152142016-12-09T15:59:35.381-08:002016-12-09T15:59:35.381-08:00Clearly you lead off Eaton and have Trea hit secon...Clearly you lead off Eaton and have Trea hit second, right? Trea has more power and Eaton's just about as good at getting on base (and more established, to boot). As a bonus that lets you go LRLL in front of all the righties instead of RLLL and then all the righties in a row too, and at least one of Eaton / Trea has a chance against the specialist who comes in to get late-inning outs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66477664049070278092016-12-09T13:45:24.849-08:002016-12-09T13:45:24.849-08:00"He's a switch hitter, so you can't p..."He's a switch hitter, so you can't play matchup with him." That's one way of looking at it. Another way is that he cannot hit from either side, so there is no reason to bring in a new pitcher. And all things considered, you would want the other team to burn a pitcher. PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63276290011570857552016-12-09T13:23:48.616-08:002016-12-09T13:23:48.616-08:00- Initial reaction to the trade was we gave up too...- Initial reaction to the trade was we gave up too much. I really wanted at least one of Giolito or Lopez to stay on the team so we can get a young pitcher come up and make an impact, and keep the rotation strong and not too expensive in the coming years. Now you either need to keep Gio for the two more years, or go out and get a replacement - and that guy is going to cost more and not be as good as Giolito, most likely.<br /><br />Upon further reflection, I guess the trade ain't so bad. I'm with Harper in thinking that Lopez was overrated, but I still thought that with his stuff, he'd make a good future closer. Losing Giolito still stings a little. But considering we'd have him for six more years, and Eaton for five, and Giolito isn't a sure thing to be a top starter after last year, I suppose it makes sense. It's not like we have Eaton for 2-3 years...we have him for almost as long as if he were a rookie, and he won't be old at the end of his contract. Giolito would have to hit his old expectations, or two of the three guys we gave up would have to do very well, for the trade to be a loss. Both those things might not happen.<br /><br />- Baker's got his lineup making skills cut out for him, though. Right now it's RLLLRRRR(pitcher).<br /><br />- SM - perhaps if Espinosa got Zim his starting job, or something like that.<br /><br />- Donald - that would actually be awesome. He should do it!<br /><br />- Kevin - I actually like Espinosa as a bench player. He can play any IF position. He's still fast enough to pinch run. He's a switch hitter, so you can't play matchup with him. He has some power. Power off the bench is good for when you're down one with 2 outs and no men on, or you just need a HR. Of course, you want AVG/OBP guys too - a balanced bench is a happy bench! If someone has both, then, well, they're not a bench player now are they. Same thinking applies to MAT, except IMO he's a tick worse hitter than Espinosa.<br /><br />That being said, they should definitely shop Espinosa. He's making too much to sit on the bench for a team not named Yankees/Dodgers (and is not a platoon guy), and the Nats have bullpen needs.mike knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-73006331082649907302016-12-09T11:17:23.679-08:002016-12-09T11:17:23.679-08:00call me crazy, but what I want on my bench is not ...call me crazy, but what I want on my bench is not power but on-base. why? because most of the time when an NL team is pinch-hitting, it's because a pitcher is up and there are 2 outs and you need to keep the rally going. Sure, a double or HR is great, but I'm also happy just having that guy work a walk or slap a single so that the top of the order can come up. That's where the damage will get done anyway, so I want someone who'll put the ball in play. So that pretty much rules Espi (and MAT) out as they're the exact opposite. I say sign Revere to an incentive-laden deal and if he's better, he's your 4th OF.Kevin Ruschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246278523767750179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57734445179195113972016-12-09T11:15:37.293-08:002016-12-09T11:15:37.293-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Kevin Ruschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246278523767750179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47275568002064189022016-12-09T11:08:51.043-08:002016-12-09T11:08:51.043-08:00Top 100 is more or less "good chance to be in...Top 100 is more or less "good chance to be in the major leagues at some point for some period of time probably more than a cup of coffee" Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-10625117978852652182016-12-09T10:42:24.661-08:002016-12-09T10:42:24.661-08:00Honestly I see a good chance of none of the 3 guys...Honestly I see a good chance of none of the 3 guys given up amounting to much of anything. <br /><br />Which gives you perspective how much a crapshoot prospect rankings are.. Even a top 40 guy (which sounds good) is likely to be nothing in the majors. And a top 5-10 guy like giolito very well may be nothing more than a mediocre starter, maybe even worse. <br /><br />Never know what you got until you call them up. Dr Trea (formerly #werthquake) https://www.blogger.com/profile/07450504942328972974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52954403252407333982016-12-09T10:07:22.990-08:002016-12-09T10:07:22.990-08:00Poor Espinosa--any hope of substantial playing tim...Poor Espinosa--any hope of substantial playing time choked off by the presence of Zimmerman.<br /><br />Is this what the kids call "irony?"SMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-26531876311176360872016-12-09T08:33:45.070-08:002016-12-09T08:33:45.070-08:00PF - how HUGE Trea will be over Danny is arguable....PF - how HUGE Trea will be over Danny is arguable. Or really is what we're going to find out. it could be HUGE or huge or not huge. That's what we have to accept with a 2nd yr bat<br /><br />Also the downgrade is HUGE at C bc of Ramos' crazy year. <br /><br />I'd say batting comes out a little ahead C +++ drop, FY Eaton for FY Espinosa ++ increase, Half-year Turner for Half-year Revere + increase (assuming Turner moderation and taking acct half year, room to become ++ depending giving this year edge) <br /><br />pitching just slightly down (2 months of Melancon lost ast noted) <br /><br />Donald - I bet you could package Danny to a team that needs a SS for a middle relief arm. that's about it. Only KC fits that for contenders though. If I could trade him I would trade him assuming you can get Drew back. He's versatile and good defensively enough. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67224434802429581792016-12-09T08:11:23.410-08:002016-12-09T08:11:23.410-08:00GCX - I don't think you are serious but I'...GCX - I don't think you are serious but I'll answer seriously. Arguably no, but only if you are going to sit Zimm - which you are not. So then Danny has to be benched. <br /><br />What speaks to the power point is that Danny can't hit for average AT ALL (not merely below average like Eaton is with power) and has watched his speed diminish over the past couple years and yet is still a viable major league starer, if just barely. Why? Because of defense and mostly, because power. It's all a matter of scale. If he hit 30 homers instead of 24 no one would be talking about getting rid of him. If he hit 18 homers instead of 24 he might not have made it through the year. <br /><br />Let's not overstate things. Danny has GOOD power, not great power. He hits homers and that's all, not enough to completely make up for the fact he hits very few doubles. <br /><br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-14975600488313015642016-12-09T08:03:50.748-08:002016-12-09T08:03:50.748-08:00If I were Danny Espinosa, I'd be frantically l...If I were Danny Espinosa, I'd be frantically learning how to pitch. His best shot at staying on the team is if he can fill the closer role.<br /><br />Harper -- what would you do with Danny? How much would he bring back? Do you try to flip him for some middle relief help or package him with a few other guys to try to get something bigger? Or would you try to keep him on the bench?Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62279507931416742122016-12-09T07:55:19.283-08:002016-12-09T07:55:19.283-08:00Let's put this in perspective, comparing the f...Let's put this in perspective, comparing the first half of 2015 to the first half of 2016:<br /><br />Upgrades:<br /><br />Trea Turner replaces Danny Espinosa at shortstop -- HUGE upgrade, assuming that Trea is at least an average fielder.<br />Adam Eaton replaces Ben Revere -- HUGE upgrade, unless Eaton hurts himself during first plate appearance and stinks all year. Not likely.<br /><br />No change:<br />Starting pitching rotation is the same.<br />Harper, Werth, Rendon, Murphy, Zimmerman (Nats weakest spot).<br />Bullpen is roughly the same, but without Rivero (eh), Oliver Perez (bad).<br /><br />Downgrades:<br />Norris/Lobaton/Severino replace Wilson Ramos.<br /><br />In the 2nd half of the year, the Nats put Turner in CF to replace Revere, and picked up Melancon.<br /><br />So, net net, Nats basically replace Espinosa with Eaton, lose Ramos, lose Melancon.<br /><br />Hopefully, they will address catcher and/or closer in the off-season. If not, they can address this at the mid-season trade deadline. PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-1266015418128339472016-12-09T07:47:52.979-08:002016-12-09T07:47:52.979-08:00Danny Espinosa hits for power (your stated #1 crit...Danny Espinosa hits for power (your stated #1 criteria). And he plays good defense at a premium position. And he's a good baserunner. Almost never GIDPs. <br /><br />Should he be the one getting benched due to the arrival of Eaton?G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-44124259326837882892016-12-09T07:19:15.931-08:002016-12-09T07:19:15.931-08:00I like Lopez's stuff. I like watching him pitc...I like Lopez's stuff. I like watching him pitch. He didn't get the results, but I get a good feeling about him. I am not a scout or pitching expert so my gut feeling on this is probably wrong but it also makes me sad to see him go. On the other hand, Eaton seems to be good so the deal makes sense. I just worry a bit about our starting pitching depth but I guess we'll just grab some more AAAA guys.cassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86648633669856558762016-12-09T07:00:23.268-08:002016-12-09T07:00:23.268-08:00I like Dane Dunning exactly as much as a person wh...I like Dane Dunning exactly as much as a person who heard the name Dane Dunning during the draft and has never thought of Dane Dunning again likes Dane DunningHarperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.com