tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post292578793007745360..comments2024-03-27T19:05:25.362-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Into the weekendHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90806573235021259762015-08-31T12:03:10.757-07:002015-08-31T12:03:10.757-07:00@Booyah..
Unfortunately, the Mets are all too fam...@Booyah..<br /><br />Unfortunately, the Mets are all too familiar with injuries that were "minor that turned out to be not minor" <br /><br />https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/618829060077019136/photo/1<br /><br />Mets2015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37466500496416548872015-08-31T08:00:00.214-07:002015-08-31T08:00:00.214-07:00Anon, yeah, I get that. Not my point. Point is, ...Anon, yeah, I get that. Not my point. Point is, the overwhelming nature of the Nats injuries was "minor that turned out to be not minor" meaning they couldn't either get the player back or move on to someone else for the season. And to make matters worse, those injuries all happened to the 1,2,4, and 5 hitters and their second most important starting pitcher. To not only not have those guys for an extended time, but also replace them with marginal bench guys instead of getting a good replacement off the market (because the team thought they'd be back sooner rather than later), was in my opinion a big part of the Nats underperformance this year.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-31350470045632802452015-08-31T07:40:16.047-07:002015-08-31T07:40:16.047-07:00@Booyah Suckah!
The list of Mets injuries (and s...@Booyah Suckah! <br /><br />The list of Mets injuries (and suspensions) is longer than Wheeler and Mejia. To begin with, see Wright and d'Arnaud.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88452003374198210592015-08-31T04:59:34.714-07:002015-08-31T04:59:34.714-07:00Mets v. Phillies, Nats v. Cards. I'd be conte...Mets v. Phillies, Nats v. Cards. I'd be content if Nats only lost one game here.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05480983946194369576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-27581897977979311602015-08-31T04:56:51.102-07:002015-08-31T04:56:51.102-07:00Just a quick point to make on the injuries. Harpe...Just a quick point to make on the injuries. Harper hinted at it, but I'll expand on it:<br /><br />It isn't just the players the injuries have happened to, or how many games they missed, etc. A big part of the difference (as I see it) is the initial prognosis of the injuries. <br /><br />Yes, the Mets lost Wheeler for the year. Huge loss, no question. But there was zero chance of him coming back, so the team was able to move on and find another option. Similar situation with Mejia... you know he isn't coming back before a certain number of games. And so forth.<br /><br />On the other hand, all of the injuries the Nats sustained (with the exception of Stammen, who I've always been a huge fan of and think was a hugely underrated part of this team) were of the "it's no big deal, they'll be back soon" variety, even though that largely turned out to not be true. Either that or you had the repeat offenders like Zimm, Span, Strasburg, etc. Virtually none of the Nats injuries were "Oh crap, this guy is done for the season, let's find someone else".<br /><br />The Nats' DL all year was like Lucy pulling the football out from in front of Charlie Brown's foot. Repeated injuries, different injuries to the same guys, injuries that seemed less severe than they were... they had it all, and all of that precluded the Nats from making moves before the deadline because "the guys we're getting back will be better than anyone we're trading for" except that we kept losing those guys again (or having them stay on the DL much longer than expected). Remember when Rendon was just day-to-day during Spring Training? How did that work out?<br /><br />As Harper said, more severe injuries can actually be a blessing because it gives you more flexibility with roster management. The Mets had their #2 (?) starter on the shelf all year, but they knew it, and could move on. Meanwhile, the Nats #2 starter pitched like crap the first 2/3 of the season because he was sort of injured, went on the DL, came back, was sort of injured again, went on the DL again, came back, pitched great, and is now maybe injured again...<br /><br />Just saying.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-54925782308182205582015-08-30T17:02:29.155-07:002015-08-30T17:02:29.155-07:00There will be trades...There will be trades...blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81034992165004101322015-08-30T16:40:02.976-07:002015-08-30T16:40:02.976-07:00As goes Desmond so goes the Nationals As goes Desmond so goes the Nationals Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67991719652828500742015-08-30T07:53:05.210-07:002015-08-30T07:53:05.210-07:002016 lineup (assuming MW is still manager):
Rendo...2016 lineup (assuming MW is still manager):<br /><br />Rendon 3B, Werth LF, Zimmerman 1B, Harper RF, Ramos C, Escobar 2B, MAT CF, Turner SS<br /><br />2016 lineup (my realistic hope):<br /><br />Rendon 3B, Harper RF, Zimmerman 1B, Werth LF (but would really want a different player...), Escobar 2B, MAT CF, Ramos C, Turner SS<br /><br />2016 Pitching: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Ross, FA. I do not think Giolito will be ready or that Roark will seize the 5th spot.<br /><br />The sad thing we haven't really touched on is how Rizzo's hands are tied with the current roster. There aren't any places in the everyday lineup to upgrade bc of contracts besides Turner and I think that is set in stone. I still feel good about the starting pitching bc a good 5th SP can be found easily and I think Giolito will be up in 2nd half if Nats need him.<br /><br />There will still be significant injury concerns with 2016 Nats bc Rendon has a history of slow healing, Werth is too old, Zimmerman now has ?s and plantar faciatus can come back, but have to hope he recovers as well as Pujols did. Escobar has to be watched. The one plus is that the Nats has a really good backup MI in Espinosa. <br /><br />I am not too optimistic.notBobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13434485032121470129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61819738130623743452015-08-30T07:02:10.307-07:002015-08-30T07:02:10.307-07:00Mets now have lost 5 straight at home where their ...Mets now have lost 5 straight at home where their hitting has gone cold. Bullpen in tatters. Their aces on inning limits can't overcome bad hitting and a bad bullpen. <br /><br />Mets are ripe for the picking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29757257203138599622015-08-30T06:19:06.857-07:002015-08-30T06:19:06.857-07:00Picked up a game last night. Nice.
Let's do i...Picked up a game last night. Nice.<br /><br />Let's do it like six or seven more times.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-76268266034879620492015-08-29T12:56:26.354-07:002015-08-29T12:56:26.354-07:00@Henway
That's a pretty convoluted argument.
...@Henway<br /><br />That's a pretty convoluted argument.<br /><br />The easiest way to argue that the Nats injuries were less harmful than the Mets injuries is to look at the team batting stats. The Nats had the 5th/6th best offense in the NL (and the 6th best pitching) before the all-star break while the Mets had the worst team batting. The Nats team batting dipped in the 2nd half of July due to facing a slew of elite pitching but is back to a 5th/6th level in August. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-1754411956966974542015-08-29T10:51:45.346-07:002015-08-29T10:51:45.346-07:00Tough loss but the Mets lost a tough one, too. Sti...Tough loss but the Mets lost a tough one, too. Still within 6 games in the loss column, which means the Nats continue to hold their destiny in their own hands.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88099335323466540422015-08-29T09:44:40.366-07:002015-08-29T09:44:40.366-07:00You're assuming the Nationals are going to win...You're assuming the Nationals are going to win as well though which might be a stretch. Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05480983946194369576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-17385515884894293482015-08-28T20:46:35.650-07:002015-08-28T20:46:35.650-07:00Pretty embarrassing game. Figures the one time in...Pretty embarrassing game. Figures the one time in the last 2 weeks the Mets actually lost, so did we :(<br />BTW, what alternate universe do we live in now where the Mets suddenly can't win at home and now can't lose on the road?? I think expecting the Red Sox to win the next 2 is really asking for a lot, but I think they can win at least 1 of the 2, get it back under 6 games.Max Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06425423505319440584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83970819891519920362015-08-28T16:13:36.820-07:002015-08-28T16:13:36.820-07:00I think when evaluating whose injuries are more si...I think when evaluating whose injuries are more significant, we need to define the question better with no bias, and look at it with fairness. The more fairer question is: "Who have had more 'potentially impactful' injuries?<br /><br />This means:<br /><br />1) You can't just look at total WAR lost.<br /><br />Here's a though experiment. Say this was the NBA, and the best college b-ball team was playing in the league. Let's say they lost all 5 of their college starter to injuries. Now, let's say the Cavs lost Lebron James. Whose injuries were more significant?<br /><br />Lebron, right? His war is 20 times that of his team.<br /><br />No, that's now how it works. The loss of the 5 starters in the college bball team probably hurt more than Lebron for the Cavs. Now the college bball team probably can't win any games in the season. The Cavs? They might sneak into the postseason.<br /><br />2) You can't look at the records of both team.<br /><br />You say the Nats injuries were more significant because look at their record! They're struggling without Rendon, Span, Werth, etc! I don't think you can say this. It just means the Nats don't have enough depth/mental toughness to recover from their injuries. <br /><br />It discounts the fact that the Mets have people who have stepped up even though they've had the same number of 'potentially impactful' injuries.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Rather, you need to look at the injuries side-by-side qualitatively. How does each of the injured players contribute to their team, and what do their loss mean? (remember the college bball example above)<br /><br />- Rendon vs Wright<br /><br />I'd say this is equal. Both are the top 1-2 run producers in their team.<br /><br />- Span vs D'arnaud<br /><br />Span has the higher WAR, more history, etc, but both play a premium defensive position. D'arnaud was expected to be the top 3 run producers in this team. But I'd give the edge to Span because he's a leadoff hitter and you often only have 1 legit one in a team.<br /><br />- Zimmerman vs Wheeler<br /><br />Zimmerman is not your top 3 run producer but fills a valuable position so his loss hurts, but Wheeler was projected to be a #2-#3 starter that would go 200 innings, and win 15+ games for you. With Harvey coming back from surgery, Wheeler was probably your #2 guy. I'd put Wheeler's potential impact as higher. Also, Wheeler is out for the season while Zimmerman is back.<br /><br />- Werth vs Mejia<br /><br />Mejia is your closer. Werth is not your top 3 run producer (4th most in RBIs last season?). I'd give the edge to Mejia. Again, we're not looking at total WAR or depth here. Yes, Familia has filled in. But that's credit to the Met's having depth. I'd put them as equal.<br /><br />So in summary, Nats lost: <br />- their very good leadoff hitter for a huge chunk<br />- their #1 and #4 run producer who have played <b>100</b> games combined<br />- a 3rd baseman who isn't among their top 4 run producers.<br /><br />The Mets have lost:<br />- their #2, and #3 run producers who have played <b>50</b> games combined<br />- their #2 starter <b>for the year</b><br />- their closer <b>for the year</b><br /><br />Let's be fair when evaluating the injuries between these 2. <br /><br />As a Mets fan, I'll say they're pretty equal.<br />Henwayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11898342435342797073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66900458857617758292015-08-28T15:03:27.682-07:002015-08-28T15:03:27.682-07:00For all the hand wringing, the fact is the Nats wo...For all the hand wringing, the fact is the Nats won again last night and kept pace with the Mets. As long as they're within reach of the H2H, the Nats control their own destiny.<br /><br />Yes, they lost Span and that's disappointing, but he was only back briefly, anyway. The Nats were playing better before Span came off the DL. I'm optimistic young Turner will make up the difference.<br /><br />My take on the injury comparison is both teams have had significant injury hits but the Nats could afford the injuries better than the Mets because the Nats started with more talent.<br /><br />Before August, with the injuries, the Nats yet had an above-league-average offense and defense while the Mets had the undisputed worst offense in the majors, which is saying something in a down year for offense over-all. The Mets managed to be ~.500 because of their top-3 pitching staff. <br /><br />The surprising thing looking at the season records is that the Mets were never far behind. The furthest out they were was 4.5 games. Even at what pundits have labeled their low point - the 8-7 loss to the Padres right before sweeping the Nats - the Mets were only 3 games out. It just felt like the Mets weren't really contending because it seemed like they were stuck at a dead end. Their pitching was maxed out and their MLB-worst hitting would not allow them to be better than ~.500. <br /><br />On July 31, I felt like the Nats were going to Citi Field to finally shake off the Mets. The Nats had managed to be an above-average team in 1st place despite the injuries. Now everyone was coming back and the Nats were ready be the team from the pre-season predictions, turn the page on the season, and accelerate to the play-offs. It didn't work out that way. <br /><br />Instead, the Mets hitting has done a sudden 180 from the worst in the majors from April to July to the best in the majors during August.<br /><br />The hope is that the Mets hitting will cool off again because, while their offense has grabbed all the attention lately, the Mets pitching has actually dropped off quite a bit.<br /><br />If the Mets hitting comes down to earth and their pitching stays cooled off, the Nats have a good chance of making a comeback with the H2H. But if the Mets keep hitting and/or their pitching heats up again, it's going to be a tough chase. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86295170598864598772015-08-28T14:05:32.740-07:002015-08-28T14:05:32.740-07:00The evolution of analytics have been good for base...The evolution of analytics have been good for baseball. They have expanded the fan base and provide terms of reference for those who may not have the baseball background or "aptitude" to compare and place in context what they see watching the games every day. However, adding up WARs to develop a point estimate to project future performance is chasing noise.<br /><br />If teams had the time and expertise between games, they would need very few metrics to be successful. However, there are two many variables to evaluate 300 pitches every day by watching video, and then compare individuals against recent and longer term performance. Teams can't or won't hire a small army of experts to break down the video and place each action point in context. Even if they did, there's no practical way to translate all available options into viable action plans and still play a season of baseball. Chaos woul be the most likely outcome. So, analytics are a useful shortcut. They allow teams to track a subset of key dependent variables and take notice when trends begin to vary beyond expected error bands. They then can conduct pitch by pitch visual analyses and develop root cause hypothesis that can be tested by coaching or in game adjustments. If improvements don't happen, they examine secondary effects to attempt to influence expected value. If the players don't respond over time they begin to search for longer term solutions.VIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937393189808417558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-44052994166179624052015-08-28T13:32:06.585-07:002015-08-28T13:32:06.585-07:00@Myself -- I agree that the Mets aren't going ...@Myself -- I agree that the Mets aren't going away and may well head into next year as the favorite. What I meant by over performing is that most people had them pegged to win 85 games or so. Most analysts thought they were a year away from contending. <br /><br />A word of caution though. You sound almost exactly like us Nats fans heading into this year. <br /><br />I also agree that we can't just blame injuries, particularly since they weren't unexpected. It's going to be an interesting off-season, though this one isn't completely over yet. The Mets are on a great run right now, but that could change. And if I were a Mets fan, I'd be worried about the amount of runs they've been giving up. If that indicates the starting pitchers are starting to tire, it might get closer. Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-25812274572954036532015-08-28T13:24:52.895-07:002015-08-28T13:24:52.895-07:00Myself makes a good point that can be backed by da...Myself makes a good point that can be backed by data. Now that the steroid era is over the standard player development model usually applies for average to very good players. They arrive in the ML around age 22-23. They then perform below their "mean" levels, but steadily improve for the next 3 years crossing over their "means," at which time you tend to have the player at near peak or peak performance until age 32 or so. From then on they begin to decline, albeit at different rates for the next 4 years. Injuries interfere with this model, and players like Harper tend to be outliers, but it's a good benchmark with which to set expectations going forward.VIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937393189808417558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19820950488604255452015-08-28T13:09:54.674-07:002015-08-28T13:09:54.674-07:00Donald said the Mets overperformed. The truth is,...Donald said the Mets overperformed. The truth is, they didn't. There isn't a single Met who has had a career year. With the exception of Cespedes, every Met returning next year is a young player who can do better like Flores, is in their prime like deGrom, can't possibly be more injured than they were this year like Wright and d'arnaud, will be returning from injury like Wheeler and Parnell, will be up for a full season like Conforto, or will be replace by a better player the way Matz will replace Colon. The point being, the Mets will not regress next year. In all likelihood, they will be better. If the Nationals are going to recapture this division, they need to stop blaming injuries and start figuring things out because the Mets aren't going away. Not with that pitching.Myselfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12948404591292856686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40857602369968326312015-08-28T13:03:16.790-07:002015-08-28T13:03:16.790-07:00John C, Fair points...I guess I had spring clean...John C, Fair points...I guess I had spring cleaning in mind already by wanting to clear out some clutter. <br /><br />But the question remains as to whether the organization is already folded their hand for this year or not. Ironic in a way as we are getting pinged hard to renew our seats already. My takeaway is the Lerners want my money but don't want to take any risk. <br /><br />Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45979923736256526602015-08-28T12:54:34.879-07:002015-08-28T12:54:34.879-07:00I don't mind the idea of getting Carlos Gonzal...I don't mind the idea of getting Carlos Gonzalez from the Rockies, but it's going to take a premium talent (think Giolito or Turner) <i>plus</i> significant assets to do it. Plus any major league players in the trade would have to clear waivers first (so Storen's not going anywhere). You can't just bundle up a pile of garbage (Fister) and short term players (like Storen, who is a FA after 2016) and question marks (Roark) and cart off another team's all star who is under team control for another two years after this year.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78530857692773110552015-08-28T12:49:10.550-07:002015-08-28T12:49:10.550-07:00The first Mario Kart game came out in 1992! I'...The first Mario Kart game came out in 1992! I'm in my 30s and Mario Kart has been around most of my life. Thankfully Nintendo keeps pumping out new editions so I won't have to hear kids say "What's Mario Kart?" and feel old.<br /><br />Zork, however, is another matter. Our season has been eaten by a grue.cassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87834326678600281762015-08-28T12:48:58.493-07:002015-08-28T12:48:58.493-07:00I think the argument that people are having here i...I think the argument that people are having here is whether the Mets won the division (by playing better, having better chemistry, making better moves at the deadline) or the Nats lost it (poor managing, injuries, too few moves at the deadline). <br /><br />The answer is some of both. The Mets are clearly playing better than most people predicted and are on pace to win 91 games. Still, if the Nats had performed as they were expected, 91 games wouldn't have won the division. But the Nats have clearly under performed. If the Mets hadn't over performed, it might not have mattered, but it does. <br /><br />I think one question should be why the Mets over performed? Clearly they were hurt by significant injuries but it didn't slow them down too much. I think the answer to this, lest the Mets fans get too cocky is that their starting pitchers all performed exceptionally well. That can't always be counted on. Also, they've absolutely crushed the teams they should be beating. But to the extent they've done it almost defies the odds. I don't think they can count on sweeping entire season series from multiple teams every year.<br /><br />The other question is why have the Nats under performed. This isn't the first time this has happened either. Injuries are certainly a part of it, but I think the team composition is also to blame. As someone mentioned early, they are mostly good but not great players, Harper withstanding. Again, though, for the Mets fans, it's not like your team is made up of fearsome hitters. The last 2 weeks have been unbelievable, but their best hitter, Wright, seems headed down the same declining path that Zimmerman is on. <br /><br />Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62355877782602807502015-08-28T12:44:09.860-07:002015-08-28T12:44:09.860-07:00@JE34 Mario Kart been around since 1992. Don't...@JE34 Mario Kart been around since 1992. Don't feel old. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com