tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post3439976092071448743..comments2024-03-28T09:37:13.468-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: The right decisionHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74003319402147309682017-06-20T13:26:36.483-07:002017-06-20T13:26:36.483-07:00Do you need free Instagram Likes?
Did you know you...Do you need <b>free Instagram Likes</b>?<br />Did you know you can get them <b>ON AUTOPILOT & TOTALLY FREE</b> by using <b><a href="http://socialexch.syntaxlinks.com/r/AddMeFast" rel="nofollow">Add Me Fast</a></b>?Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07287821785570247118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-11944050693321908052016-07-06T03:54:11.849-07:002016-07-06T03:54:11.849-07:00Froggy, your question reminds me of the Bumgarner ...Froggy, your question reminds me of the Bumgarner debate going on lately. How much of his success is because he's seeing "pitcher's pitches" and not real ones?<br /><br />I'm all for outside-the-box thinking, but batting Bumgarner in a game at an AL park just seems gimmicky. If not, you're saying that a guy with a .182/.226/.307 career line is really your best option. That's not a compliment to Bumgarner. That's an indictment of your bench.<br /><br />As for Espy, I think it's 10% change in approach, 20% the types of pitches he sees, and 70% crazy hot streak. Ride it till he's a burnt out huskBooyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53180494352192151052016-07-06T03:52:05.591-07:002016-07-06T03:52:05.591-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78878575361431337212016-07-05T15:43:31.208-07:002016-07-05T15:43:31.208-07:00PotomacFan~ How much of Espi's streak is due t...PotomacFan~ How much of Espi's streak is due to the type of pitches he is seeing hitting behind Ramos and Rendon? He is essentially the second 'cleanup' hitter in Dusty's order. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9996873063202263622016-07-05T12:05:32.101-07:002016-07-05T12:05:32.101-07:00Jay: neither. Danny is a major league player -- ...Jay: neither. Danny is a major league player -- and a keeper -- because he is a tremendous fielder, an adequate hitter, and inexpensive. He is on a hot streak now. I think he will (mostly) revert to his career stats (that means a slump coming up), BUT, it looks like he is getting a bit better at taking bad pitches (and getting walks) and hitting breaking balls. He is a .700 - .740 OPS guy, which is a good enough for terrific shortstop. And, not to curse it, but he never gets injured.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81983385907596790922016-07-05T11:02:47.282-07:002016-07-05T11:02:47.282-07:00The real question is - has Danny had the proverbia...The real question is - has Danny had the proverbial "light" go off and now he can hit or are we seeing MAT in spring training? If the former - then the guy is a borderline all star. If the latter - then trade him while his stock is high.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55058486126102556772016-07-05T10:47:39.586-07:002016-07-05T10:47:39.586-07:00Yea I've got to agree with Booyah. If it was r...Yea I've got to agree with Booyah. If it was really attributable to "the prospect of losing his job" then 1 of 2 scenarios is true:<br /><br />Either A.) He wasn't giving maximum effort before, and the idea of losing his job lit a fire under him so he would start giving his maximum effort. Or B.) He was already giving maximum effort, and the idea of losing his job now has him "giving 110%"<br /><br />The first one is not plausible because why wouldn't have been giving 100% before? The second one is not plausible because giving 110% is not a thing.<br /><br />There is certainly SOME change that explains this stellar last month from Danny. But simply "Trying harder" because he's afraid of losing his job cannot be the explanationBjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-356753995740182052016-07-05T05:00:16.962-07:002016-07-05T05:00:16.962-07:00Sammy, I confess, I don't understand the senti...Sammy, I confess, I don't understand the sentiment of "the prospect of losing his job to Trea I'm certain is what has turned Danny Espinosa's bat around". Is it really that easy? Oh man, this youngster is waiting for me to fail, I'd better start crushing grand slams!<br /><br />In fairness, Danny has been in imminent danger of losing his job since, like, 2013. In fact, he did lose it for quite some time. If all it took to turn someone's bat around was the prospect of losing their job, I imagine he wouldn't have been a Mendoza-level hitter for the last 4 seasons or so.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-60562466850198838022016-07-04T07:16:56.002-07:002016-07-04T07:16:56.002-07:00In retrospect, Rizzo should have switched Desmond ...In retrospect, Rizzo should have switched Desmond to CF last year rather than sit Espy on the bench when Rendon returned. Espy's first half numbers last year were not all that bad. To his credit, Rizzo probably didn't want to undercut Desmond's market value, given that the Nats were expecting a compensation pick for him in the off season. (That part of the strategy worked.) One can only imagine what goes on behind the scenes in such scenarios, but Matt Williams isn't the improvisational wiz Dusty is. I can't imagine Williams saying "hey, let's try TT in CF!"<br /><br />The other part of the story is injuries, of which so far there have been remarkably few. The odds of getting through an entire season without at least one position player spending time on IR have to be pretty low. <br /><br />Flapjacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-76062923950020624592016-07-04T05:46:52.597-07:002016-07-04T05:46:52.597-07:00One thing that is still sort of in play is Nats br...One thing that is still sort of in play is Nats bringing Desi back on multi year deal to play outfield this offseason. They desperately need to improve outfield long term, with Werth coming to end of his deal and center field simply not looking good at the moment. I personally would not shell out money for the back(ish) end of Desmond's career, and would treat this year as a bit of an aberration in a multi year downward trend that started in 2012.....it's possible that he changed his approach, but I don't think I would risk it. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58279065465010756372016-07-01T21:53:02.144-07:002016-07-01T21:53:02.144-07:00Harper:
Suggested topic for a future post: is the...Harper:<br /><br />Suggested topic for a future post: is there anything in the data that could explain Espinosa's surge? Weaker pitching? Has he changed his approach? (He says not.) Better luck? All of the above?yin yangnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47561176426802234962016-07-01T15:47:17.578-07:002016-07-01T15:47:17.578-07:00I suspect somewhere in Danny's closet is a bas...I suspect somewhere in Danny's closet is a basketball from outer space that he used to steal Bryce's home run power.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-75500031429955793632016-07-01T12:59:06.843-07:002016-07-01T12:59:06.843-07:00Hmmm, looking back at one of the opening day previ...Hmmm, looking back at one of the opening day previews:<br /><br /><b>"Turner, the organization’s top positional prospect, got a cup of coffee last season and, after a stint in Triple A, should be up by the second half as the everyday starter who will provide speed, defense and solid hitting."</b><br /><br />It took a while, but the prospect of losing his job to Trea I'm certain is what has turned Danny Espinosa's bat around. Two dingers last night, one from each side of the plate, a three-run shot and a grand slam in consecutive innings. I was outright giddy about 8:30 last night. Over his last 28 days he's batting .324 with 8 homers and 20 RBI. And that's while batting in front of the pitchers, so he also has 11 walks for an OBP of .440 and an OPS of 1.156.<br /><br />His defense needs no defending. Anyone that has watched him for the last three plus seasons knows he's arguably the best defensive middle infielder in MLB--and I would make that argument. He's absolutely the best second baseman I've ever seen. Period. And I've seen a lot of them, from Bobby Richardson to Joe Morgan to Ryne Sandberg. Nobody has ever turned a better double play; nobody has ever had a stronger arm, and as for shortstops, only Ozzie Smith had better range. Only seven errors at shortstop at the 80 game mark. Ian Desmond routinely had seven errors in the first ten games.<br /><br />I like what Dusty said about the situation yesterday, and I agree. It's better for Trea at this point for him to stay in Syracuse and play every day than to come to the show and sit or platoon or pinch-run/hit. Trea will certainly come up when rosters expand, and maybe even earlier if Rizzo does a deadline deal involving Stephen Drew. But either way, there's plenty of time, the Nats are in no hurry, Danny is playing out of his mind, and Trea is getting valuable experience and instruction at AAA.<br /><br />The Nats have now backed a seven game losing streak with a five game winning streak. Let's keep it up.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4768588762534940322016-07-01T12:50:54.901-07:002016-07-01T12:50:54.901-07:00Harper, I have been following you and this blog fo...Harper, I have been following you and this blog for 5 years and I think this one of my favorite posts. I really like the way you breakdown decision making and outcomes (its personal thing cause of what my long toothed career in consulting type work and leadership-"management"). I get this post is about the Trea vs Danny stuff and that you have reversed your opinion a bit. <br /><br />Off topic, but related to your post (not necessarily associated with baseball)- I would just like to point out one thing that you may disagree with given your analytic expertise. When you say- "... I don't think most people are really obstinate jerks. Most people are willing to listen and are looking to talk things through", it gives the impression most people are rational and reasonable and make decisions based on listening and logic. I will agree that most people will listen when you demonstrate first that you have listened to them. However, people don't really make decisions based on logic and reason. Regardless of all the available logic and data, which certainly may have influence, it is feelings that are the final determination. People make decisions based emotions regardless of how much they think it's about logic or rationalize it to be that way.Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-82593587902328121422016-07-01T12:38:40.211-07:002016-07-01T12:38:40.211-07:00@Alex Freeman, "What I would do is keep the p...@Alex Freeman, "What I would do is keep the platoon, on the hopes that Revere picks it up like he has his entire career, but replace MAT (the career K-machine) with TT."<br /><br />I get your point, that you are expecting Revere to regress back to his .300 norm. On the other hand, you are choosing TT to replace the weaker half of the platoon. Half way through the season, MAT is better than Revere in almost every metric. Even when you throw in all the Ks.<br /><br />@WiredHK, "There's no way I'd bench Revere at any point this year unless he is really still injured. He hit over .300 last year and is a .290 career hitter. I strongly like his chances at coming up huge in the second half of this season, if statistics are our guide."<br /><br />Whereas I mostly agree with you, I think if statistics are our guide, we also need to acknowledge that with half a season under our belt, his .217 average is becoming statistically relevant.<br /><br />Here is thinking that I admit is too far outside the box: MAT and Revere have similar splits, EXCEPT, MAT is hitting .292 in day games. Even his monstrous K rate is down during the days (albeit a smallish sample size). I think I have MAT play day games, and play Revere all the night games under the assumption/home he reverts to his normal self.Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-80622262438984269672016-07-01T12:20:13.292-07:002016-07-01T12:20:13.292-07:00At the game with my friend last night, it was imme...At the game with my friend last night, it was immediately clear on both sides there'd be a lot of base runners. So friend and I each guessed "who would go 0 for 5." I picked Zimmerman, who hit a 3-run HR first AB. So I conceded the loss. EXCEPT, friend chose Espi. <br /><br />It was awesome that we both were so, so wrong.<br /><br />(I did tell friend that Espi was a bad choice, in that he's the most productive Nat in June.)Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-11407189775880734962016-07-01T12:05:54.982-07:002016-07-01T12:05:54.982-07:00Vdub: There is no way I am giving up either TT or ...Vdub: There is no way I am giving up either TT or LG. Those are future of this franchise. I don't care if it is McCutchen or anyone else.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62909846592257986402016-07-01T12:03:29.488-07:002016-07-01T12:03:29.488-07:00@Vdub:
Oh, yeah, if I'm Huntington I take tha...@Vdub:<br /><br />Oh, yeah, if I'm Huntington I take that call, I negotiate for as much as I can get, and all the while I'm caroling over the initial offer. There's no way Rizzo *makes* the call, though, not for Giolito or Turner. Last year at this time, sure, kick the tires, but the guy's sporting a 95 wRC+ right now and (of course, in a small sample size) not playing the field well, either. (Werth has a higher fWAR than Cutch right now, even though Cutch plays a premium defensive position.)<br /><br />(Obviously, I'm joking about Trout (Moreno would fire Sosh faster than he'd trade Trout)--but in all fairness, if we're talking about 10/$500M for Bryce being a fair price, then Trout's a bargain, especially since it only has four years left after this one, he'll only be 28 for that last year, and 2017 is way under market value. That's one where I'd at least get on the phone and make Eppler tell me no.)DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-79329039898688205182016-07-01T12:03:18.757-07:002016-07-01T12:03:18.757-07:00In his weekly chats, Boswell has been advocating t...In his weekly chats, Boswell has been advocating to wait until Danny gets hot and sell him off at that point for a reliever and bring Turner on board. Boswell surmised from Danny's BABIP and other stats that Danny was getting unlucky.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7574860823979309202016-07-01T11:10:46.057-07:002016-07-01T11:10:46.057-07:00Good post, Harper. I found this to be illuminating...Good post, Harper. I found this to be illuminating. Echoing Anon@10:16, I wonder what the future at SS holds. If Danny keeps raking all the way up to the Deadline, do you sell high? Ride him out for the rest of the season since Dusty likes vets, then trade him in the offseason? Move TT to CF to replace MAT? Trade TT for Chapman and Miller? Thor and Yo for Bryce?G Cracka Xnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8530030875165639012016-07-01T10:40:13.439-07:002016-07-01T10:40:13.439-07:00@Dezo - Yea, for Pipe Dream GM you may be able to ...@Dezo - Yea, for Pipe Dream GM you may be able to land that deal. But that CF'er also has $122M left on his contract compared to...$27M left on Cutch? God our lineup would be unstoppable though...Bjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-11497565733988597912016-07-01T10:22:26.382-07:002016-07-01T10:22:26.382-07:00Dezo you are hilarious... Trout is not for sale. ...Dezo you are hilarious... Trout is not for sale. But, I am being completely serious. If you are the Pirates GM, and Rizzo calls you up and says: hey Giolitto or Turner, plus... for 29yo, and as you say having a down year, McCutchen; don't you have to at least consider it, and try to negotiate for both of them or a Ross, and bandy about some possibilities? There's no way it would be an outright no, but thanks for the call.Vdubnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-18820016010565435532016-07-01T10:16:16.299-07:002016-07-01T10:16:16.299-07:00What's Danny's trade value? Any chance we ...What's Danny's trade value? Any chance we try to sell high on him?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83308520110076701852016-07-01T09:54:31.394-07:002016-07-01T09:54:31.394-07:00Hey, if I'm going to play Pipe Dream GM for a ...Hey, if I'm going to play Pipe Dream GM for a minute, instead of trading for a top-flight CF from a first-place team (who aren't going to move their guy) or a team fighting for a playoff spot (who probably aren't, and anyway McCutchen is having a down year), I'd point out that there's a *last-place* team out there who just happens to have no pitching worth mentioning, a budget stuffed with horrible contracts, the worst farm system in all of baseball, and a *fairly* good center fielder that I think would be an upgrade on Revere and Taylor.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30230533203071595992016-07-01T09:48:27.205-07:002016-07-01T09:48:27.205-07:00I think another important factor in the Trea vs. D...I think another important factor in the Trea vs. Danny that has to be considered is Dusty's management of the team. As long as the Nats were winning, I just think he was going to be loathe to drop Danny for Trea. I don't think the potential upside was big enough or sure enough for Dusty to risk the effects of the disruption.<br /><br />Dusty may make some head-scratching tactical decision and this may come back to haunt the Nats in the playoffs, but I really get the sense (and his history as a manager backs it up) that is is very skilled on managing a team for 162 games. Whenever he makes any decision, I get the sense that he is thinking about how this will potentially hurt/help the team over the course of the entire season. For example, note that he did not immediately drop Zimmerman in the order after the Cubs debacle when everyone, me included, was screaming that this needed to be done. Yet, over time, Zimmerman has been dropped in order. Also note who caught Gio's win last night: Ramos, not Lobaton, who helped stake Gio to an early lead.<br /><br />Also, Dusty's resting the starters on a regular basis and trying to get the bench players regular playing time seems to be working really well. Will most people remember a year from now that Bryce did not play in last night's 13-4 blowout? Heisey went 2 for 5 in Bryce's place. <br /><br />I know that soft factors are not measurable, that's why they are "soft factors", but it appears Dusty is a master of handing many of the soft factors that go into managing a successful baseball team, at least with respect to the position players. <br /><br />BornInDCnoreply@blogger.com