tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4039972010424535803..comments2024-03-18T07:03:39.210-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Max-imum PressureHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23974883946130163122016-10-12T16:50:07.922-07:002016-10-12T16:50:07.922-07:00Make no mistake, this is why the Nats went and got...Make no mistake, this is why the Nats went and got Scherzer for starts like tomorrow night. I'm hopeful he can go 7 or 8 and give up 0 or 1 run. He had been better about not giving up HR his last 6-8 starts before the playoffs. He was 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in September. He gave up a total of 2 HR in 8 starts from early August to mid-September. I think it will take going 7 to 8 with at most 1-2 runs. We'll see. I'm not hopeful, but I wasn't in games 2 or 3 too. There is just no telling. Hopefully, the Nats can grab a 2-3 run lead early. Get the crowd amped up and ride it to a big win. Another 6-0 lead like 2012 would be nice, since I think the end result would be far different.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78621443433655397972016-10-12T15:33:48.877-07:002016-10-12T15:33:48.877-07:00John C... I'm assuming the Nats miss the posts...John C... I'm assuming the Nats miss the postseason again next year, because it's an odd number year. Ramos gone and then one more chance at a run in 2018 before Bryce and Murph and Roark all leave in 2019 and Rendon in 2020. <br /><br />Strasburg's history and Scherzer's advancing age have me worried about the rotation.<br /><br />Seeing as the NL East should still stink and 4 of 5 Mets starters may have had offseason surgery by opening day 2017, maybe I shouldn't be so pessimistic.Zimmerman11https://www.blogger.com/profile/14524103974207323535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45233714245126639172016-10-12T15:27:16.043-07:002016-10-12T15:27:16.043-07:00I can't say anything about Sammy Kent who is u...I can't say anything about Sammy Kent who is ultra pessimistic. This is just a game and a random game. Go Nats! Sonny S.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-10523218434014241052016-10-12T14:06:35.788-07:002016-10-12T14:06:35.788-07:00@ JE34 - Its not about confidence, its about havin...@ JE34 - Its not about confidence, its about having a plan of attack BEFORE you step into the box. All I'm saying is I saw a concerted effort to wear Kershaw down in Game 1. I've never seen the Nats play like that and I loved it. Saw glimpses of it yesterday, but mostly impatient swings out of the zone, trying to shift the tide with one swing in Chavez Ravine. Also JE, that approach of "hacking early" against a pitcher like Kershaw is a terrible idea and is probably a big contributor to his success. He pitches to the corners and tries to widen the zone, like the CY Young winner that he is. Pitchers of his caliber rarely ever give you anything down the pipe, so why swing so early? Early in the ballgame is battle for command of the zone for both the pitcher AND the hitter. If you lay off you'd find yourself in more favorable counts like we saw countless times in Game 1. <br /><br />Nah, but you go ahead and throw your back out on three pitches trying to mash nasty curveballs in the dirt or tailing 95 mph fastballs 6-8 inches off the plate. Is that you Espy?Ole PBNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86419954331949166712016-10-12T13:00:32.749-07:002016-10-12T13:00:32.749-07:00I don't think that the Nationals changed their...I don't think that the Nationals changed their approach - I think it was the tale of two lineups. The top 1-4 guys just lit up Kershaw; the bottom five were collectively terrible. <br /><br />Espi's couple of decent at bats late may have saved his start for Game 5. If he had whiffed those two, I think Difo gets the start. Now I kind of doubt it. <br /><br />My God, the Dodgers play the slooooooowest brand of baseball I've ever seen. It's not just coaching visits/pitching changes. It's the endless string of mound conferences when they're in the field, endlessly taking time to contemplate their navel between pitches when they bat, so many pickoff attempts, and even just standing around not throwing the ball (looking at YOU, Baez, although you're not the only one). Simply choosing a pitch to throw seems like a major imposition. I don't know if it's gamesmanship, but for a fan it's just aggravating.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-48030282987134835532016-10-12T12:49:45.944-07:002016-10-12T12:49:45.944-07:00Sammy Kent--I share your concern over Urias.
He f...Sammy Kent--I share your concern over Urias.<br /><br />He faced the Nats twice this season, pitching 4 innings once and 5 the other. The Nats lost both games, the first (3-4, on June 22) when Kelley (courtesy of MAT) blew the save. (Seager homered off Ross in that game.)<br /><br />In the second game (3-6, on July 23, at Washington), Turner homered twice off Strasburg and that was pretty much it.<br /><br />Urias threw a total of 9IP, gave up 3 runs (all earned), walked 1 and struck out 10. Sure, MAT started both games, but Trea was in the lineup for the second. <br /><br />None of this predicts anything, of course, but there is something worrisome. In the first game, Ross, Werth and Espinosa all doubled off Urias. In the July 23rd game, 5 singles and no walks were all the Nats could muster.<br /><br />Scoffing at the notion of Urias and/or Hill on the mound is premature.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77010203032082915352016-10-12T12:12:10.601-07:002016-10-12T12:12:10.601-07:00Urias is the guy that bothers me much more than an...Urias is the guy that bothers me much more than anyone on their staff--including Kershaw. We are awful against rookies and other relatively unknown pitchers with just average off-speed stuff. If Rick Schu doesn't have a 3 gig dossier of situational tendencies in his laptop on the guy, our batters have no chance to hit him. Jayson Werth and Daniel Murphy are really the only guys we have that can either learn about a mystery pitcher during the game or identify his pitches during his own at bats to figure out a way of making effective contact sometime before the game ends. Everybody else is just guessing. Schu is just guessing.<br /><br />@Anonymous: I was optimistic yesterday. See where it got us? Things seem to much better for the Nats the more convinced I am that they won't. I want to believe in Max, but somebody on our staff has to play the role of Tyler Clippard. Since Kelley stopped giving up dingers about six weeks ago, the job seems to have fallen to Max. Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85047765100042339622016-10-12T11:40:30.957-07:002016-10-12T11:40:30.957-07:00I fully expect to see Urias and that frisbee curve...I fully expect to see Urias and that frisbee curveball of his at the first sign of trouble. I'd have started Urias, and used Rich Hill if Urias wobbled even a little.<br /><br />Like Sammy... I have trouble being optimistic until I see this team get over this playoff hump once. Dusty's pregame speech could be stereotypical DC: "Boys, let's win this one for the narrative."<br /><br />Dave Roberts' pitching changes are wreaking havoc on my blood pressure. Here's hoping the league office calls the umps, and has them squeeze LA's strike zone, just to keep Roberts and his death-by-1000-paper-cuts approach to bullpen management out of the NLCS. Adding Pedro Baez's crazy slow pace is further penance. <br /><br />@Ole PBN: plate discipline has been a problem for certain guys this team for so long. Werth is at his best when fouling stuff off, frustrating pitchers, racking up pitch counts. But then you have Espi's wild uppercuts regardless of count, last year with Desmond trying to pull absolutely everything, and so on. The flipside is getting the reputation for looking at the first pitch... We see Werth and Zim stand and watch big meatballs all the time. Werth at least seems confident with two strikes on him... the others seem less so. Tough to judge vs Kershaw, b/c hitting 0-2 against him is perhaps the toughest assignment in the majors. I'd be hacking early in the count against him too.<br /><br />Now then... since Harper and Murphy seem incapable of driving anything deep right now... how about a nice chilly, foggy, fly-ball-killing night by the Anacostia?JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-289823430462351862016-10-12T10:51:32.164-07:002016-10-12T10:51:32.164-07:00I am sure that Hill will have a short leash but Ur...I am sure that Hill will have a short leash but Urias has never pitched in the post season, never pitched game 5 and isn't a relief pitcher. Hopefully all of those things matter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-18260365952427353332016-10-12T10:38:52.168-07:002016-10-12T10:38:52.168-07:00The thing that frustrated me most about yesterday ...The thing that frustrated me most about yesterday was our sudden change in approach against Kershaw. Patient early, made him throw 27 pitches in the first. From there, it was 9-17-9-13-14-21 (finally pulled after an 8-pitch AB w/ Bryce). Kershaw did not have his put-away stuff last night, yet all of his 11 K's were on four pitches or less = our guys swinging at stuff out of the zone. We're doomed if we repeat this approach Thursday against Hill. Loss shouldn't be blamed on Treinen or Dusty. Yes I would have preferred to see Solis out there instead, especially after HBP, but Treinens numbers against LHH are pretty good. However, if one thing is clear in the series, its that LA CANNOT hit LHP, no matter who it is. They're murder against RHP. <br /><br />In short, Solis/Perez/Rzepcynski are going to win this series for us. I want to see 6 innings of them tomorrow. Seriously whats wrong with that? Tell Max we need 6 outs to start. Lefties til the 8th and have Melancon shut it down in the 9th. Offense, we need 4 runs out you before the night is over. No shadows to mess with, we FINALLY have a prime time night game. Get it done.<br />Ole PBNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52410547333165800142016-10-12T10:22:33.050-07:002016-10-12T10:22:33.050-07:00I also don't think Hill will last long, but re...I also don't think Hill will last long, but remember that Urias is available. I'd expect an extremely quick hook if Hill so much as wobbles.<br /><br />Alpha Betanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-60590240534145888712016-10-12T10:21:00.225-07:002016-10-12T10:21:00.225-07:00Shoot, Fangraphs actually DOES have the Nats as th...Shoot, Fangraphs actually DOES have the Nats as the favorite, 54-46%. Although the playoff odds shows the Dodgers as a slight favorite, apparently that's based on nothing other than depth chart and number of games left. If you look at the game-specific prediction, which figures in HFA and starting pitcher, the Nats lead: http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2016-10-13.<br /><br />I actually find this a little confusing. If you think the Dodgers are a slight favorite in a game with the whole roster available, played in a neutral park (which is the assumption of the Fangraphs playoff odds projection), you really think the Nats only go ahead to 54-46 based on Scherzer vs. Hill and HFA? That just seems really mild. Something more like 60-40 or even 65-35 seems more likely. Chinatown Expressnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-2668764208039267522016-10-12T10:13:32.518-07:002016-10-12T10:13:32.518-07:00Fries: Better to repeat Game 5 of 2012 than the 1...Fries: Better to repeat Game 5 of 2012 than the 18-inning imbroglio of 2014. I have work on Friday.<br /><br />Although Fangraphs has the Nats as the favorite, Dave Cameron likes the Nats in his chat today:<br /><br />"Prich<br />12:18 Tomorrow basically a coin-flip? Dodgers 1-25 advantage mitigated by the Nats' home-field and having the 'better' starter?<br />Dave Cameron<br />12:18 Nats probably the favorite."Chinatown Expressnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30835237573823205282016-10-12T10:11:23.117-07:002016-10-12T10:11:23.117-07:00@Fries:
Yeah, that was my worst sports moment eve...@Fries:<br /><br />Yeah, that was my worst sports moment ever. I can go back and feel that moment at will. It was like being punched in the gut. Which was nothing but a silly statement to me until that game.<br /><br />I've felt pretty good about this series, even before it started. Maybe because we were considered an underdog, or that we weren't behind going into game 4 like in 2012 and 2014. We've been underdog each game, and are 2-2, and easily could have stolen at least one from Kershaw. There just isn't a sense of self-destruction this series.Richttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389546973060137660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-753084207210370422016-10-12T10:00:00.517-07:002016-10-12T10:00:00.517-07:00Just please please please don't repeat Game 5 ...Just please please please don't repeat Game 5 of 2012. I can't handle that...not again. If the Nats lose, I want them to lose soundly. I can't take another soul crusherFriesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45642227964608799722016-10-12T09:54:27.625-07:002016-10-12T09:54:27.625-07:00Here's hoping that this sentence, which applie...Here's hoping that this sentence, which applies to Max's regular season performance, doesn't also apply to this series: 'Max pitched well, but frequently battled homeritis....'G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37253839152279548872016-10-12T09:40:28.063-07:002016-10-12T09:40:28.063-07:00Seemed like yesterday Dusty twice left a pitcher i...Seemed like yesterday Dusty twice left a pitcher in one batter too long. When Ross walked two people in a row plus hit a batter I thought you had to bring in Perez there against Pederson. Then after Trienen pitched very effectively for an inning you could see he started to loose it when he hit Toles and gave up the base hit. Why not just bring Solis in to face Utley(side note Utley and Ruiz are still terrorizing us past their Phillies days.)<br /><br />Looking forward to Game 5. Hopefully Max puts up one of his signature performances.datadidithttp://datadidit.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-5188915243174314212016-10-12T09:30:27.340-07:002016-10-12T09:30:27.340-07:00I just hope it's not a late/close game. I want...I just hope it's not a late/close game. I want Scherzer to pitch another no hitter, and the Nats offense to go completely nuts in the first 3 innings. I do NOT want drama.<br /><br />Whatever happens, at least the team didn't lay down and die like 2014. It has at least been a fun series to follow (even though it's been difficult to watch due to the start times and rain delays).Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52178118843654993702016-10-12T09:24:52.998-07:002016-10-12T09:24:52.998-07:00Window closing? A team with Harper, Rendon, Turner...Window closing? A team with Harper, Rendon, Turner, and Murphy locked up for multiple years, and a rotation of Scherzer, Strasburg, Ross, Gonzalez and a boatload of other candidates also locked up for multiple years (if they exercise Gio's option)? And one of the better minor league systems? It's not even a particularly old team except for Werth, who comes off the books after 2017. Anything can happen, of course, but isn't that kind of premature panic/anticipatory melancholia? Enjoy the day, Zim!John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40967996432044007922016-10-12T08:32:45.429-07:002016-10-12T08:32:45.429-07:00It would take a LONG time to get over our window c...It would take a LONG time to get over our window closing with three first round postseason exits in 5 years to show for it. Need Max to limit the gopher balls in GM5. <br /><br />Harper, no mention of Zimmerman11 also hitting in NLDS? Yes, Reddick should have caught the ball up against the wall... but I'm 5/15. You mentioned LITERALLY everyone else. :)<br /><br />I agree with Dezo tho... a final four of TOR/CLE/CHC and NATS/LAD is pretty good. I'll watch the ALCS and WS even if Nats go down in flames on Thursday.<br /><br />Zimmerman11https://www.blogger.com/profile/14524103974207323535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58714845140610652582016-10-12T08:31:33.475-07:002016-10-12T08:31:33.475-07:00Rich Hill going on short rest. I think this is a m...Rich Hill going on short rest. I think this is a mistake by Roberts. This is a great matchup for the Nats: their Cy Young contender on full rest vs a tired Hill who was ineffective last time. But as we all know, anything can happen in game 5. I'm still haunted by 2012. I don't think I can wait an entire day for this gameAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09245553643303530857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30025163998065815362016-10-12T08:27:18.320-07:002016-10-12T08:27:18.320-07:00Eh Nate silver has us at 58% win probability.
Als...Eh Nate silver has us at 58% win probability.<br /><br />Also Rich Hill has never pitched short rest, + old, + cannot go long into games on normal rest. UrAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45280512720287932772016-10-12T08:23:44.448-07:002016-10-12T08:23:44.448-07:00@Anon at 8:17am "......everything favors us.&...@Anon at 8:17am "......everything favors us."<br /><br />I want to believe that, but I also notice that Fangraphs feels differently. They give the Dodgers a 55.3% chance of advancingG Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-32950414033354240172016-10-12T08:17:43.768-07:002016-10-12T08:17:43.768-07:00"I'm naturally pessimistic I guess."..."I'm naturally pessimistic I guess." -Sammy<br /><br />You guess?<br /><br />Just kidding man. Dont loose hope everything favors us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-84726628431904385582016-10-12T08:04:32.326-07:002016-10-12T08:04:32.326-07:00Nothing to add really, but did anyone else watchin...Nothing to add really, but did anyone else watching the broadcast feel like Harold Reynolds had just learned that DC had a baseball team, let alone a good one? I know a lot of people don't like him, but his astonishment that a 95-win team had serviceable pitching and hitting was almost comical to me.<br /><br />Also, Dodgers can't feel good about Hill. Guy having an unusually good season, can't go deep, is having "blister issues," already lost a game and is on short rest. Nats certainly <i>can</i> find a way to blow this (and if they platoon Hill with Urias, who knows?), but if they have any mettle whatsoever they should feast.elchupinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06626204697716387752noreply@blogger.com