tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4258537634285050454..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Toxic AmenderHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-39093832931707041052016-01-29T04:51:37.393-08:002016-01-29T04:51:37.393-08:00http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-forgotten-moves...http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-forgotten-moves-of-the-offseason/<br /><br />Really good summation of how you can't just judge the offseason by who got added/subtracted. I know this is nothing new to the people here, we talk about it all the time. But good read anyway. And according to the projections he does, it looks good for the Nats.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52102146533851911692016-01-28T12:16:25.062-08:002016-01-28T12:16:25.062-08:00I think the MASN deal and the court reversal of th...I think the MASN deal and the court reversal of the ruling are biting the Nats this offseason. Peter Gammons wrote a very good article about this on his blog Gammons daily. http://tinyurl.com/hjkz2gp At this point, I hope the Nats are able to get out of their own contract with MASN and see the rights to Comcast. Selig tried to broker a deal for MASN to be sold to Comcast at one point but Angelos refused. Yet another reason to not like Angelos. <br /><br />Anyway, I am hoping that best case scenario Baker makes a big difference and the Nats bounce back in a big way. Baker is a lot like Davey Johnson - he has won everywhere he has ever been. I do worry that a lot of that hope is hinging on guys staying healthy again. Zimmerman, Rendon, Werth, and Strasburg. If one of those guys gets hurt it's trouble. If two get hurt it's a lot of trouble. Last year they were all 4 hurt plus Span.<br /><br />I'd still like to see them sign Clippard and give him the 8th again. I'd like to see them trade for one of the Rockies OF or Lucroy and adjust accordingly. Desmond was offered a very nice extension by the Nats - $108 million total value if I remember correctly. I think part of his problem last year was him worrying he blew it by not taking the extension. He doesn't look to get that now. Bryce is the guy people love to have on their team but hate on the other team. If he leaves as a free agent and signs with the Yankees - there are several articles about this on ESPN right now (slow baseball news time) - I would be very disappointed. I don't think the Lerners do anything until the MASN thing settles. It should only take another year or two. Good times.<br /><br />Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58312074008078244492016-01-28T10:17:56.408-08:002016-01-28T10:17:56.408-08:00@Dezo - Wasn't Heywards breakout a year before...@Dezo - Wasn't Heywards breakout a year before Trout?<br /><br />@Bryceroni - The trouble there is you'd have to find a team willing to take him at that price too and there doesn't seem to be many teams willing. Most speculation has had him packaged with a prospect to make the deal more "palatable"Bjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67368592606686271172016-01-28T08:33:25.784-08:002016-01-28T08:33:25.784-08:00I must confess this is an idea that struck me more...I must confess this is an idea that struck me more recently, so I can't really claim this as a strategy from the beginning of the off season. Maybe a lesson for the future.<br /><br />Rizzo probably could have moved papelbum for just salrry relief. 11 mil for a year of a good reliever is not exorbitant, and probably ends up as a good value. <br /><br />This move hurts the nats roster from a baseball perspective, but has 2 possible benefits: clearing money, and improving 'toxicity'/ countering media narratives.<br /><br />Maybe I'm reading too much into the clubhouse, but ,11 mil in salary relief is useful.<br /><br />Bryceroninoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55941695599719638412016-01-28T08:32:39.805-08:002016-01-28T08:32:39.805-08:00@Natty dread:
It's the hype, pure and simple....@Natty dread:<br /><br />It's the hype, pure and simple.<br /><br />Bryce hit the big leagues at an impossibly young age, with all the media saying that he was the best thing since sliced bread. Everything he does has been (and likely will be) viewed through the narrative of that initial filter. Fans of the other 29 teams are salivating over the opportunity to see Bryce fail specifically because they keep getting "Bryce! Bryce! Bryce!" yelled at them. Media see any slip by someone so thoroughly hyped as a potential "feet of clay" moment that they can make a story out of. (I take Jason Heyward as a personal example: he's an excellent outfielder, yes, but I got *so sick* of hearing the media tell us that he was the next Mike Trout, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays rolled into one that I relished every time he failed...of course, the fact that he played for the Braves, the arch-rival of my favorite team, helped that along as well.)<br /><br />tl;dr "Hype Backlash"<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24095939460088086122016-01-28T07:19:03.182-08:002016-01-28T07:19:03.182-08:00Our biggest problem last year was the bullpen and ...Our biggest problem last year was the bullpen and Rizzo, I think, massively improved that aspect. Other than that, I think our offense will be just as good as last year (I expect a bit of a drop-off from Harper but also some combination of additional production from Zimmerman/Werth/Rendon should balance that). We lost Jordan Zimmermann which is huge but we still have a solid rotation. Overall, I think our situation going into this season is the same one we were in last year: solid team that could make a run at a WS with some luck, but also could miss the playoffs with some bad luck.Alex Freemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64145534374011233692016-01-28T02:41:08.523-08:002016-01-28T02:41:08.523-08:00What puzzles me is sustained hatred out there for ...What puzzles me is sustained hatred out there for Bryce. He is intensely competitive, that I get. Guys who are intensely competitive and who know it often rub people the wrong way. But what has he 'done' to deserve all of the negativity from general fans? He seems to be a pretty down to earth guy. Why does America hate him?Natty dreadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-48026960592293827092016-01-27T16:45:41.355-08:002016-01-27T16:45:41.355-08:00Ollie, they did offer Desmond a whopping big exten...Ollie, they did offer Desmond a whopping big extension that he declined. It's hard to be made at the Nats for making an offer that Desmond is kicking himself for not accepting.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-35470623108671632382016-01-27T15:59:20.430-08:002016-01-27T15:59:20.430-08:00I suspect if there's any toxicity in the clubh...I suspect if there's any toxicity in the clubhouse it comes from management throwing guys like Espinosa and Storen under the bus after years of talking up building from within, plus no extension for Desmond/demoting Roark after a couple great years for the next shiny thing. Unless you're a Boras client your job's not safe. Olliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13985806525460388793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36914428811543470242016-01-27T15:57:57.500-08:002016-01-27T15:57:57.500-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Olliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13985806525460388793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29338368895125769482016-01-27T15:56:20.117-08:002016-01-27T15:56:20.117-08:00@VI: Yes, I'm sure the guy who publicly choked...@VI: Yes, I'm sure the guy who publicly choked the NL MVP, called out his former teammates' desire to win in the press, grabbed his crotch at fans, and had to be separated from a reporter who reported that he couldn't pitch in a game because he was too hung over is the one that guys around the league are backing. Right...Olliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13985806525460388793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36885570392558840742016-01-27T15:47:20.302-08:002016-01-27T15:47:20.302-08:00Back to the Desi thing. No offers for him......is ...Back to the Desi thing. No offers for him......is he the kind of guy Rizzo would offer a 1 year "eat crow ('cause ain't nobody given you an offer), play well, get paid next year" contract? Any chance?<br /><br />ChaosChaos56https://www.blogger.com/profile/04572431548134665466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-16780158902474846822016-01-27T13:45:25.402-08:002016-01-27T13:45:25.402-08:00All happy clubhouses are alike; each unhappy clubh...All happy clubhouses are alike; each unhappy clubhouse is unhappy in its own way.<br /><br />How many championship teams' clubhouses, beginning with John McGraw's Giants, have been without turmoil or controversy? You might be surprised at how few.<br /><br />SMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15327766188251555062016-01-27T13:28:46.703-08:002016-01-27T13:28:46.703-08:00Lerners get a 2 for 1 on the O'Day signing. Th...Lerners get a 2 for 1 on the O'Day signing. They get to offer a lower, but driving the price up offer for an asset that the O's wanted, and still get to use the offer to stick mud in Angelos' other eye.<br /><br />Agree with JC and others that this is smart financing until the MASN deal is done.<br /><br />Agree with Harper's assessment on the FA signings. We added contact hitters at 2 spots in the lineup where we had none last year. (Span was non-factor due to injury at #1, and Ian/Danny was sub-.250 hole) Murphy and Revere/MAT addresses those 2 slots without praying that Span doesn't get hurt again. (2 surgeries in same season on same body part is no hope, but a prayer.) Bullpen is still a question until we see arms in action. Could improve a little, a lot, or not at all. <br /><br />Papelbum is a no-win situation. Lose cash needed for deadline deals or FAs to trade away with no proven closer, or keep Storen and hope he doesn't let the wheels come off a 3rd time in his career. Fool us once, shame on Storen. Fool us three times, shame on Rizzo.Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-21986240561655215522016-01-27T13:20:48.417-08:002016-01-27T13:20:48.417-08:00Harper...you might be right about the Papelbon inc...Harper...you might be right about the Papelbon incident influencing perspective, but there was a significant undercurrent of support for him, some of it by prominent former teammates. Not a lot of love out there for the other guy. Unless Bryce begins to show he's decided to mature in areas other than baseball skills, the negatives surrounding the Nats will probably linger. VIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937393189808417558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67650377849649908022016-01-27T10:47:13.148-08:002016-01-27T10:47:13.148-08:00I think JC has it down. Lerners want any leverage ...I think JC has it down. Lerners want any leverage they can come up with for the MASN dispute, so by offering deals with deferred money, they can drive up the prices on FAs on the demand side without actually committing money to those players. If the Nats win, it's proof of good management, because they couldn't get most of the players they wanted due to payroll constraints. If the Nats lose, it's because MASN revenues are too low and they can't offer competitive deals to top notch players. The strategy artificially eliminates the Lerners' accountability for any failure, and can have payroll implications for teams that do end up signing guys the Nats offer low present-value deals.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88300045772828463592016-01-27T10:19:52.282-08:002016-01-27T10:19:52.282-08:00Pretty objective summary of things, especially for...Pretty objective summary of things, especially for a soulless automaton. <br /><br />I think your point of the deferred moneies were the deciding factors (along with the players repective agent influence) in not taking the deals. <br /><br />If anything it speaks to a perception of the state of the organizations cash flow red line, or alternatively to the 'why pay cash for things today when I can finance with bank credit'. Sound business practice.Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69485606495384317732016-01-27T10:01:51.678-08:002016-01-27T10:01:51.678-08:00FWIW, even Heyward's offer from the Cubs was a...FWIW, even Heyward's offer from the Cubs was almost certainly more valuable than the Nats' offer. It's the opt-outs. When Fangraphs analyzed the deal, they pointed out that they had previously valued the opt out in the David Price contract as being worth $10-15M. Given that a player Heyward's age and position (position player rather than pitcher) FG felt the value of an opt out to Heyward would be considerably higher. So even before you get to the fact that Heyward has <i>two</i> opt outs in his deal, the higher AAV/shorter period/opt out is what makes his 8/$184M contract more valuable than the 10/$200M offer from the Nationals.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12237499501603413152016-01-27T09:55:28.599-08:002016-01-27T09:55:28.599-08:00Thank you. This is an excellent summary of what we...Thank you. This is an excellent summary of what we have been saying as a group, with the greatest volume probably at talknats.com. I admit I jump to read any time you post anything new, and this entry certainly didn't disappoint.<br /><br />+1/2St.Positively Half St.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07048223068323120438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72565273282174582422016-01-27T09:33:12.524-08:002016-01-27T09:33:12.524-08:00Appreciate the cult classic Toxic Avenger referenc...Appreciate the cult classic Toxic Avenger reference. When does that get a reboot?Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04221956772279818576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69900668567175012392016-01-27T09:00:26.708-08:002016-01-27T09:00:26.708-08:00Haha Nats are a jokeHaha Nats are a jokeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78509326278138143602016-01-27T08:34:32.640-08:002016-01-27T08:34:32.640-08:00I think the Papelbon thing is the key. Everyone sa...I think the Papelbon thing is the key. Everyone saw that. Everyone said they HAD to get rid of Papelbon. But the realities of the situation (they had no faith in Storen and wanted to cut ties with him too, Papelbon makes a lot of money, Papelbon is good) made it hard. But outside people don't really take that all in. He choked him. He must be traded or even cut. The fact he's still here is BAD. That will inform every opinion about the team until proven otherwise beyond a shadow of a doubt. Like 98 win runaway with East type of thing.<br /><br />So sorry to say unless the Nats rock it in 2016 there is going to be a lot of "Well you could see there'd be problems. They didn't even get rid of Papelbon!"<br /><br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66760857729253470392016-01-27T08:24:39.461-08:002016-01-27T08:24:39.461-08:00The idea that the Nats are toxic because they didn...The idea that the Nats are toxic because they didn't overpay for free agents is a *classic* example of people looking for signal in the noise. There's no interesting narrative here. Personally, as long as we're making up narratives, I think we should start one where we suggest that big time players don't want to come to Washington because Papelbon literally called them and threatened to choke them if they came. The free agents are just trying to save their own necks! BADUM-TSH!<br /><br />I'll show myself out...Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-50056704129390239132016-01-27T08:09:30.987-08:002016-01-27T08:09:30.987-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11299241754855793271noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-148972533225858192016-01-27T08:04:18.198-08:002016-01-27T08:04:18.198-08:00Rizzo gets to offer safe, low offers with lots of ...Rizzo gets to offer safe, low offers with lots of deferred money. If someone takes then we get a decent deal on a top FA. If they turn down the offers then the Lerners can claim that this is all about the MASN money. Win-win!JCnoreply@blogger.com