tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4522773329108008023..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Happy December - Nothing is happeningHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87280048119989291102017-12-03T18:47:54.544-08:002017-12-03T18:47:54.544-08:00Man, Ohtani was always a long shot but sad to hear...Man, Ohtani was always a long shot but sad to hear he will not set up a meeting with Nats. <br /><br />So scared he will pick San Fran and they will also trade for Stanton...notBobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13434485032121470129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-44593147909303437832017-12-03T18:20:27.222-08:002017-12-03T18:20:27.222-08:00Hey Harper, how about doing a full off-season '...Hey Harper, how about doing a full off-season 'If I were Mike Rizzo, these are all of the off-season moves I would make' post?G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58443361680236225022017-12-02T17:42:12.121-08:002017-12-02T17:42:12.121-08:00@Froggy
Yeah they generally plan on the player no...@Froggy<br /><br />Yeah they generally plan on the player not being worth the calculation of a war equaled out through the contract. You generally plan on war declining through several years. You also back load contracts bc of the inflation in war knowing that 1 war will cost more each year of the contract. NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87890797193780991462017-12-02T16:41:05.809-08:002017-12-02T16:41:05.809-08:00Then Jayson Werth robbed the Lerners blind. Then Jayson Werth robbed the Lerners blind. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-21962183801581517732017-12-02T16:39:42.812-08:002017-12-02T16:39:42.812-08:00Thanks @Not Bobby and KW,
Is $10mm per WAR a proje...Thanks @Not Bobby and KW,<br />Is $10mm per WAR a projection based on total hoped performance over life of contract? In other words was Scherzer's contract of $200mm based on him delivering 20 WAR in six years or 3.3 War per year? Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-14949209302727364782017-12-02T15:56:40.928-08:002017-12-02T15:56:40.928-08:00OK, Greg Holland was trash in the second half. How...OK, Greg Holland was trash in the second half. How does he win comeback player of the year over Zimmerman?Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53935951288243189582017-12-02T11:11:08.230-08:002017-12-02T11:11:08.230-08:00https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-linearity-of-c...https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-linearity-of-cost-per-win/NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-44491632286000798912017-12-02T10:53:49.090-08:002017-12-02T10:53:49.090-08:00I think Fangraphs is now using 1 WAR = $10M. Fran...I think Fangraphs is now using 1 WAR = $10M. Frankly, that's a staggering number to contemplate. It's also a big part of the reason I don't think the Stanton contract is nearly as bad as people act like it is. By this metric, Stanton just had a season valued at $70M.<br /><br />The Boone hiring strikes me as a massive egotistical gamble by Cashman, basically trying to prove that he doesn't need Giradi's stinkin' experience. Hiring a woefully inexperienced manager is one thing if you're the Phillies and have nothing to lose. It's quite another when you've got a good young core but also will be perennially facing a tough divisional challenge by the Bosox. If Boone's learning curve costs the Yanks three or four games, that might be the difference in the division.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-79958921569579735382017-12-02T09:54:16.861-08:002017-12-02T09:54:16.861-08:00@Froggy yes there is a calculation every season as...@Froggy yes there is a calculation every season as to how much a win should cost and they predict how much inflation will occur the next season. You can find it on fangraphs I thinkNotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65428527504172464452017-12-02T09:46:06.548-08:002017-12-02T09:46:06.548-08:00Harper, I used wood bats and no gloves in LL too, ...Harper, I used wood bats and no gloves in LL too, just like my idol Carl Yastrzemski. Hence the reason I wasn't drafted pro probably. <br /><br />Anyway, speaking of stupid contracts and as to why there hasn't been much movement yet, is there a stat that depicts value to WAR or a ratio to contract monies to actual performance?Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57209676671781700912017-12-02T03:46:05.899-08:002017-12-02T03:46:05.899-08:00Thoughts on Boone?Thoughts on Boone?NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45922209266812445562017-12-01T12:19:03.569-08:002017-12-01T12:19:03.569-08:00Harper - Can you draw any conclusions from whether...Harper - Can you draw any conclusions from whether the Nats' pitching heavy drafting is less/more successful than a more balanced or more position focused approach? The wisdom seems to be that great position prospects have a better chance of working out than great pitching prospects and the Nats' own experience (as well as Cubs, Yankees, and others) seems to align. Is our pitching focus in the draft a mistake?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23617560123389471842017-12-01T11:26:38.116-08:002017-12-01T11:26:38.116-08:00Correction: Stanton is owed 3/$77M before his opt...Correction: Stanton is owed 3/$77M before his opt-out. Bryce will be paid 3/$120M for the same age-level seasons of his career, maybe more.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-48038799159688855292017-12-01T09:33:14.897-08:002017-12-01T09:33:14.897-08:00Well, if Marvin Miller were still alive, he'd ...Well, if Marvin Miller were still alive, he'd be screaming "collusion," and he'd be right. (Miller is on the second-chance HOF ballot this year, by the way. It's a crime he wasn't elected during his lifetime. No one had more impact on the overall shape of the game in the last 50 years than he did. Without him, Bryce might be looking to get $4M next year, or less, since there would be no free agency!)<br /><br />The lack of action is very weird, though. Not even fourth-tier guys are signing, or even attracting much attention. Poor MLBTR is left with regular updates on minor-league signings, as well as on the Yankees interviewing a whole bunch of guys for manager that no other team was interested in.<br /><br />Are the prospective Stanton and Ohtani moves keeping things from happening? Maybe a little, but c'mon, there are only 5-7 teams in real contention for either of them. (And Lord help us all if they both end up on the Dodgers or the Cubs.) I don't know that a real contender should actually count on Ohtani for 2018 anyway. I'm not saying that he'll fail, just that there are a lot of unknowns, and banking on him being the #3 starter for a team with title hopes would be risky.<br /><br />I think Stanton is a bargain compared to what Bryce is hoping to get. You could bend yourself into a pretzel trying to compare and contrast their expected projections, but the bottom line is that Stanton is only going to make 3/$74 before his opt-out and is coming off a 59-homer season while playing half his games in a sea-level canyon. I would LOVE for the Nats to trade Robles + stuff for him (speaking of trading prospects). I would rather it be Taylor/Fedde/Cole/other stuff than Robles, but you bet I'd part with Robles for three years of peak Stanton.<br /><br />Look, Robles has insane value right now. He'd bring two or three years of control of an all-star level player in return. Yes, he's a nice piece for the long-term future, but there's an extremely bright future for the Nats in 2018-19 that might not still be there when Robles is hitting his stride in 2021. I'm not saying give him away. I'm glad the Nats didn't trade him for the aging Cutch. People laugh when I offer Robles for two years of Bumgarner, but I'm dead serious. If you really want to win something in October, name any other #3 starter you'd rather have in the playoffs.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83626241047363857252017-12-01T07:40:24.197-08:002017-12-01T07:40:24.197-08:00Anon @ 7:18 - Why I make all of the bats for Littl...Anon @ 7:18 - Why I make all of the bats for Little League! What luck for you! <br /><br />Actually no - I'm not in any way currently (or recently) involved in Little League. I looked it up and it seems like a good idea, but I'm also the kid who, like a dummy, refused to use aluminum bats in Little League. <br /><br />Tom - I think it definitely matters. There are 3 game changers in Bryce, Machado, and Kershaw potentially available to you without giving up any prospects for not that much more than what the Marlins are asking you to pick up in salary. That's not mentioning the outside chance that the Angels will let you throw your minor leagues at them for Trout after this year (which could happen if they look terrible and he doesn't seem interested in signing long-term). Plus there is also the fact Stanton recently had a subpar year, and was injured much of 2015 and 2016. And there's guys just behind these guys like Blackmon (next year), Rendon and Goldschmidt (year after that) coming up, or guys just as good like Votto who maybe you can get in trade for the same prospect haul but cost you less in money? <br /><br />He's a great player but there are a lot of potential paths here. The surer you are you can travel down one of those paths the less appealing Stanton looks to you. So teams with the deepest pockets - Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, kick the tires in a completely different way here. That's why you are seeing the B-Team franchises, Cardinals, Giants, being named as most interested. They know they might be muscled out of those upcoming guys after they get winnowed down by injury and re-signs. So they are more likely to jump at the guy available today. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-75944688752824157132017-12-01T07:26:53.657-08:002017-12-01T07:26:53.657-08:00Sort of a nothing question, but do you think Harpe...Sort of a nothing question, but do you think Harper 2018 FA is putting a damper on Stanton 2017? Or is the universe of teams that may be interested and able to afford Harper different enough that it doesn't matter? If multiple teams are interested in him next year (or really any A+ player), does that radically change what they do now? I always find the mid-term strategizing sort of interesting. Tom Mentzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11831766278260265270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87907087132550579612017-12-01T07:18:51.734-08:002017-12-01T07:18:51.734-08:00I know this is nowhere near primary scope of this ...I know this is nowhere near primary scope of this blog but for the sake of filling time do you have kids or are you in any way connected to Little League baseball? If so your take on the new bat standards for the upcoming season would be interesting. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com