tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post5463402188949614964..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: The Marlins: Legit threat or not?Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9966517571315749252016-07-14T09:58:12.766-07:002016-07-14T09:58:12.766-07:00Dee Gordon will be an average or below average rep...Dee Gordon will be an average or below average replacement when he returns, because he'll still be in Spring Training mode for a month or so. End of August before we can expect him to be a .300 hitter everyday. While Dietrich will be a plus for their bench, will he perform in that role while not playing every day? <br /><br />It will be interesting to see how effective Matz and Syndergaard are in the 2nd half, especially with Matz eliminating the slider from his pitches. Hitters have one less pitch to look for. I think one, or likely both, wind up on the 15 day DL at some point. <br /><br />Marlins will likely stay in 2nd place, but I think they'll finish with 82-85 wins. Not enough to threaten the Nats unless they crash and burn.Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43516891914049218662016-07-14T09:00:20.235-07:002016-07-14T09:00:20.235-07:00On the subject of the Marlins' bench, too, don...On the subject of the Marlins' bench, too, don't forget that when Dee Gordon returns from his suspension, Dietrich suddenly becomes part of that bench, which means that a utility infielder will be replaced by a plus hitter.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66923714283877610222016-07-14T07:17:02.310-07:002016-07-14T07:17:02.310-07:00Some other things to consider in comparing the Met...Some other things to consider in comparing the Mets and Marlins to the Nats:<br /><br />Both the Mets and Marlins have an additional two games to play over the Nats, which helps slightly their chances to catch up.<br /><br />However, the home-road splits for the Nats, Mets and Marlins should help the Nats, particularly with respect to the Mets:<br /><br />Nats 39-33<br /><br />Mets 35-39<br /><br />Marlins 38-36<br /><br />The Mets have to play the equivalent of two more road series than the Mets do.<br /><br />The Nats do have more remaining series at the Western division teams: 3 vs. 2 for the Mets and just 1 for the Marlins, but after their August 17th game at Colorado, the Nats play on the East Coast the rest of the year (Pittsburgh and Atlanta are the furthest west teams they play away after August 17th).<br />BornInDCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-82546377430685010612016-07-14T05:47:55.685-07:002016-07-14T05:47:55.685-07:00On the "Nats can't hit against good pitch...On the "Nats can't hit against good pitchers" topic, I absolutely don't mean to sound pedantic, but isn't the reason they're good pitchers because teams have a hard time hitting against them? Or to look at it another way, is there any team that actually hits well against aces? Consistently?<br /><br />I'd be interested to see a real leaderboard and where we stand. On face, this criticism strikes me roughly the same way as "Nats can't hit with RISP" (where we're actually about average). A few cases skew our perspective altogether and we're sure our team is the worstBjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69565349724097813162016-07-14T05:10:16.102-07:002016-07-14T05:10:16.102-07:00I've thought all along that the Marlins were t...I've thought all along that the Marlins were the team we had to worry about the most in the division. But I also thought that at the beginning of last season too, and we saw how that worked out. Still, as long as they have that lineup, particularly the outfield power of Stanton, Yellich, and Ozuna, (with Suzuki still producing as well) they are going to be a problem.<br /><br />JE34 may have hit the nail on the head, though. The Nationals can sometimes be their own worst enemy. They still can't hit good pitching for squat, and except for Jayson Werth and Daniel Murphy are absolutely awful at discerning pitchers they've never or rarely seen. The Nats do better against guys like Arieta, Bumgarner, and Kershaw than they do against your average rookie first-time starter. If Rick Schu doesn't have them in his laptop, they're just guessing when they go to the plate....and not just the first AB.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67527393617078456092016-07-13T15:37:01.909-07:002016-07-13T15:37:01.909-07:00I tell ya- the mets are being STUPID. Just plain ...I tell ya- the mets are being STUPID. Just plain reckless. They need to give up on this season and let all those arms get healthy. Trade off any rent-able guys to add some younger talent for next year (maybe take on a bad contract to pick up a young asset in exchange for a bench player or something) and start over. If they keep trying now, they really run the risk of ruining that rotation for good.Kevin Ruschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246278523767750179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-41055632709825791392016-07-13T13:53:57.198-07:002016-07-13T13:53:57.198-07:00From the glass is half full optic, I think the iss...From the glass is half full optic, I think the issue isnt whether the Marlins are a threat to the Nats, but more of if they are a threat to the Mets. Which I like to think they are. <br /><br />A Mets loss at the hands of the Fish is W for the Nats. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78291823128950788072016-07-13T13:12:10.277-07:002016-07-13T13:12:10.277-07:00I think the biggest threat to the Nats winning the...I think the biggest threat to the Nats winning the division is probably the Nats. They can hit 95 wins by going 10 over (41-31) the rest of the way. Playing .500 ball gets them to 90 wins. They're in trouble if they play sub-.500 ball.<br /><br />Marlins and/or Mets would have to go 22 over (48-26) to reach 95 wins... or 12 over (43-31) to get to 90 wins. Could that happen? Marlins likely not because of pitching, as Harper says. (I think Dee Gordon returns in late July, btw.) The Mets have a pillowy soft September schedule (aside from 6 vs the Nats), so adding distance before then will be important. If the Mets are healthier in September, their string of weak opponents could delay their exit.<br /><br />So! The Nats playing at least .500 ball against the likes of PIT, LA, CLE, and SF over the next few weeks would make me feel pretty good about this fall.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-21884847462309644302016-07-13T11:36:09.435-07:002016-07-13T11:36:09.435-07:00If the Marlins picked up a legit top of the rotati...If the Marlins picked up a legit top of the rotation SP before the deadline, they could be a threat. Otherwise, the starting pitching will hold them back being a real contender to the Nats. Let's not fool ourselves though, the Nats have a few big holes that could cause them to stumble- production out of the leadoff spot and 1B, and the inconsistent and unreliable bullpen (aside from Solis, Kelley, and Paps). Rizzo really needs to to get another bullpen arm.<br />Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43060465062060626842016-07-13T11:34:05.074-07:002016-07-13T11:34:05.074-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88414938438878877732016-07-13T10:43:57.173-07:002016-07-13T10:43:57.173-07:00Strength of schedule is so hard to puzzle out, bec...Strength of schedule is so hard to puzzle out, because teams change. Sometimes players are hurt, or playing hurt, or other reasons just pile up on a team going through a hot/cold streak. For example, the Nationals played the Cubs when the Cubs were being talked about as a potential threat to be one of the best teams of all time. The Nats ran into a wall in Chicago, while later redeeming themselves with a series win in DC. The Cubs left DC and swept the Pirates to run their record to an amazing 47-20, a 113+ win pace. The Nats got to play the "A Team" Cubs.<br /><br />No wonder Nats fans were optimistic that the Nats could gain some ground when the Mets had to go play the Cubs in their own four game series. But the Mets swept the Cubs. Impressive? Well, it's always impressive to sweep a four game series, but for nearly the last month the Cubs have hardly been able to beat <i>anyone</i> other than the dreadful Reds. The Cubs are 6-15 (!) since leaving Pittsburgh - and four of those six wins were against the Reds. Against everyone else the Cubs went a Braves-like 2-13. Including one loss (a makeup game) against the Braves! Whatever was going on, it's clear that, for whatever reason, the Mets did not face the same Cubs team that the Nats did. They also play the Cubs in the second series after the break. <br /><br />Which isn't to dis the Mets - you can only play who is on your schedule. It's an example of why I don't pay much attention to marginal strength of schedule differences like the one between the Mets, Nats and Marlins the rest of the season.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13164975927834254562016-07-13T10:39:59.872-07:002016-07-13T10:39:59.872-07:00@BxJaycobb - Matz can stay healthy if he changes t...@BxJaycobb - Matz can stay healthy if he changes the way he pitches which does not aggravate the bone spur and is still effective. it seems he may have made this change already... he has stopped throwing the slider and is still doing well.NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-5663065315598184262016-07-13T10:21:26.630-07:002016-07-13T10:21:26.630-07:00I would be absolutely shocked is Matz doesn't ...I would be absolutely shocked is Matz doesn't end up on DL. Thor's bone spur is apparently significantly less serious.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-55313430501286537842016-07-13T09:51:06.902-07:002016-07-13T09:51:06.902-07:00Mets are still definitely the threat assuming the ...Mets are still definitely the threat assuming the Marlins don't pull off a miracle win streak of 15 games or 25 out of 30. The Marlins are pretty much the definition of a .500 ballclub, but there have plenty of instances where a middling team fired on all cylinders for a month and snuck into the playoffs (see the 2007 Colorado Rockies).Friesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-38327406571028921832016-07-13T09:05:58.170-07:002016-07-13T09:05:58.170-07:00I just don't see how the Marlins have enough p...I just don't see how the Marlins have enough pitching. The perfect example was that Mets-Marlins series before we played the Mets. The Marlins offense jumped out to a 6-0 lead, but the Mets slowly came back and won game 1 of that series. The wildcard is Loria. He may ok a trade or two for pitching, but I agree they may lack the prospects to go get anyone of consequence. <br /><br />I'm definitely not ready to write the Mets off yet. The easy schedule down the stretch is part of why they pulled away from the Nats last year. On the other hand, I'm not convinced that either Syndergaard or Matz or both don't end up on the DL this year.Jaynoreply@blogger.com