tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post5582872355797557436..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: YukHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64927336514511667382014-05-26T13:42:24.058-07:002014-05-26T13:42:24.058-07:00This team will dig a hole too deep for Harper and ...This team will dig a hole too deep for Harper and Zimmerman to pull out of. Come September I'm sticking to my prediction that we will be halfheartedly watching the wild card standings during a run that comes too late to make a difference. As I've said before this season: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2013 Washington Nationals. So far, the biggest differences I see is that Matt Williams never said "World Series or bust" and Adam LaRoche is good.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-41958524591901133352014-05-23T18:19:20.177-07:002014-05-23T18:19:20.177-07:00Kenny B - agree on Harper. I wasn't even try...Kenny B - agree on Harper. I wasn't even trying to draw conclusions on the others, because I am not smart enough to know whether it is randomness or a propensity that will keep going. Ellsbury seemed injury prone, but the Yanks bet $150m that he isn't. I was just saying that it is a question that Rizzo should, and probably is, asking. <br /><br />But I wonder, given Rizzo's prospect background, if they finish around 85 games again, instead of walking away or trying for that one big acquisition, he goes the other way. He concludes this core isn't going to get it done, and sells off some guys in a mini rebuild. Try to create the next window around Cole, Giolito, maybe Taylor. It wouldn't be a stretch to see them let ALR and Span go in the offseason, and trade Desi and one of JZimm, Fister or even Stras (whichever one won't extend) to try to replace the middle infield and maybe add another pitcher with more years of control?<br /><br />I am not advocating anything at this point, just speculating. I'd like to see the season play out and see what happens. But I do think it is fair to start questioning whether the assumptions around the core guys are still sound.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43873051072630154972014-05-23T14:32:50.910-07:002014-05-23T14:32:50.910-07:00Typo: inter-league
(dang spelchek!)Typo: inter-league <br />(dang spelchek!)Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-89629447536793560072014-05-23T14:29:30.368-07:002014-05-23T14:29:30.368-07:00Even though I really liked his personality and the...Even though I really liked his personality and the way he 'fit in' the team chemistry, I'm not trying to make (or 're-make) a case as to why we should have signed Morse, but I did make the point that he could have gotten 400+ AB's as 4th OF, and fill-in at 1B simply based on the injury history of ALR and Werth. Not to mention the pintch hitting and international-league DH possibilities. <br /><br />Regardless, letting him walk bc of money is one thing, but the bigger issue was in that the replacement solution for Morse didn't add up to what he brought to the team. I mean if you are going to let him walk then you better have a 'proven' .295-.300 / 30+ HR solution which Rizzo didn't. <br /><br />*Morse leads the Gigantes in HR's and RBI's. <br />Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81395810998990452232014-05-23T12:39:02.282-07:002014-05-23T12:39:02.282-07:00"...tough decisions on whether Zim, Harper, R..."...tough decisions on whether Zim, Harper, Ramos are going to play the bulk of the season or be 70% guys, and then be accountable for whether he got it right or not."<br /><br />I think you're justified in the Ramos and Zimm questions. With Harper, he's so young, and the causes of his injuries so obvious, I don't view him as a traditional injury risk. Ramos is a catcher, so you always have to view his injury risk as higher, but the call is tougher because his injuries have all been so disconnected from each other. He seems more unlucky than broken. And he's still relatively young, so you can try to bank on him one more time to pay off in a healthy season (gambler's fallacy, I know, but is anyone *that* unlucky?).<br /><br />With Zimm, I think the writing has been on the wall since the cortisone shots. I love Zimm, but he is aging rapidly. His gold glove defense has regressed to outright liability and he seems to wear down pretty quickly every season. Though his injury this season is somewhat unrelated to his usual creaks and cracks, I think a move to 1B needs to happen sooner rather than later, and it is unwise to believe he will ever play a full season again.<br /><br />The other guys I worry about pulling out full seasons are Werth and LaRoche. Both are aging, and someone's going to have to be ready to take their places for a good part of the season next year. <br /><br />The organization seems to have very little offensive depth, and though I admittedly don't follow the minor league system closely, I've not heard of any big bat developing down there who might get to break out in the bigs soon. There's no big unveiling coming, so deals and drafts are the only ways to improve. But deals don't work when there's little to deal.<br /><br />I don't envy Rizzo's job over the next couple of years as the "window" starts to close. I suspect if the team keeps getting hurt or underperforming over that time, he will eventually move on and someone else will try to build a winning way in DC.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81598322030128020922014-05-23T11:57:50.196-07:002014-05-23T11:57:50.196-07:00Kenny B said ...I just don't think many (any?)...<i>Kenny B said ...I just don't think many (any?) GM is good enough to build a team that can produce runs at a high clip when huge chunks of the middle of the lineup are missing</i><br />To me, this is a large truth. And assuming full health, my guess is that we'd be comfortably in first (and for the most part, I give Rizzo very favorable reviews).<br /><br />But what I think has to be considered, maybe right now but at least in the offseason, is whether the assembled core position players can give you those 150 g/yr that you need. The sample size is starting to get big with some of these guys, and I don't know if it is reasonable to say 'assuming these guys stay healthy' for much longer. I don't know if it is statistically supported, but some guys just seem to get injured and miss time. At some point, Rizzo does need to make some tough decisions on whether Zim, Harper, Ramos are going to play the bulk of the season or be 70% guys, and then be accountable for whether he got it right or not. <br /><br />I won't pretend it is an easy one. Some players do turn it around, health wise, but many don't. But I think where I come out is, if we head into 2015 with essentially the same lineup, it is a high risk proposition.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9005304263929059672014-05-23T11:50:56.869-07:002014-05-23T11:50:56.869-07:00@Froggy - Not in so many words
We got back Cole, ...@Froggy - Not in so many words<br /><br />We got back Cole, Krol, and Treinen in the Morse deal.<br /><br />Krol was in the pen for us for most of last year. This offseason we flipped him, Lombardozzi, and Robbie Ray for Fister.<br /><br />So in a sense you can say that Morse, Lombo, Krol, and Ray netted us Fister, Cole, and Treinen but once you try to make all these connections it breaks down because you need to include relative contract sizes and previous history (like Cole was sent out of our organization initially in the Gio trade, then came back in via Morse trade)Bjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7827661177708281032014-05-23T11:43:23.724-07:002014-05-23T11:43:23.724-07:00@John C , Rizzo got Treinen, Cole, Krol, an Fister...@John C , Rizzo got Treinen, Cole, Krol, an Fister for Morse? I wasn't aware of that. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15453729197493466172014-05-23T11:18:55.947-07:002014-05-23T11:18:55.947-07:00Agreed that gambling on Moore hasn't worked ou...Agreed that gambling on Moore hasn't worked out to date. Rizzo was able to not only duck paying $6M for Morse's uber-crappy season last year, he also parlayed that one year of Morse into A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen and Ian Krol, the latter of whom finished out the package for Doug Fister. <br /><br />It's hard for me to say Rizzo didn't handle the Morse situation right. John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7204967497461992842014-05-23T10:49:21.005-07:002014-05-23T10:49:21.005-07:00I just don't think many (any?) GM is good enou...I just don't think many (any?) GM is good enough to build a team that can produce runs at a high clip when huge chunks of the middle of the lineup are missing. If every day you're running out some combination of Frandsen/Moore/McLouth/Dobbs/Lobaton, you need mid-90s era Braves pitching (or April 2014 Braves pitching) to stay competitive. Nats pitchers are very good (and becoming consistent!), but not that good. And even they have been lucky only one of them gets injured at a time.<br /><br />Point is, I can't blame Rizzo for the injury bug, but I am *highly* suspicious as to the quality of the Nats' training staff. I worry they are kowtowing to the will of Rizzo and Williams, and things are being overlooked at the early stages, resulting in more serious injuries that last longer. See, e.g., Harper's knee, LaRoche's leg, Zimm's shoulder, whatever the hell was wrong with Espinosa last year, Ramos's hamate, Fister's lat, all these things showed some early signs, and they let them go until they seriously impacted performance over the course of one or multiple games. Then they're like "let's do an MRI" and lo and behold the player is out for a month and a half. Now granted, they seem to be doing better with Gio now, but I feel the examples of this are few.<br /><br />Maybe I'm just looking for someone to blame for the uncontrollable, but hey, you fire a hitting coach when the team doesn't hit. Sometimes you need to make a ritual sacrifice to the baseball gods, which of course are the fans.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-60926196235119799222014-05-23T10:45:11.140-07:002014-05-23T10:45:11.140-07:00Armchair GM-ing is what I do. And I guess it's...Armchair GM-ing is what I do. And I guess it's a good thing I have a day job as I don't do it very well. That said, the proof of how well you do something is in the metrics and one can make the argument that Rizzo's plan for the last couple seasons don't plan for injuries very well. Something you need to do with a team that has a history of injuries. The facts bear out Rizzo gambled that not signing Morse for relative FA chump change would be offset by Tyler Moore was wrong. The TMo experiment has failed. Nice kid and all, but he can't hit for average. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34760182179914092262014-05-23T09:09:10.721-07:002014-05-23T09:09:10.721-07:00As pointed out by blovy8, signing long term extens...As pointed out by blovy8, signing long term extensions is great if the price is right and they work out. What people tend to <i>not</i> remember is that a lot of the extensions don't work out(Nick Markakis, Grady Sizemore, etc). Rizzo is willing to sign a deal if the price is right (Gio Gonzalez). Can you imagine the yowing that would have followed if they had signed Desmond to a long term deal and <i>then</i> he got off to the start he did? Likely from some of the same fans who were incensed that Rizzo didn't sign Adam Dunn - who has had some truly miserable seasons for a big pile of money in Chicago. There were other fans who were outraged that Rizzo didn't sign Prince Fielder, seemingly exactly the big bat you are talking about. Except Fielder is starting to look like an enormous money sink, and that contract runs through 2020. No, thanks.<br /><br />Armchair GMing is easy, especially through the lens of hindsight. Although it drives fans nuts, a lot of times the best move is to not make a move. John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-25806822605818475082014-05-23T07:56:57.761-07:002014-05-23T07:56:57.761-07:00@harper
I'm a firm believer that Nationals ha...@harper<br /><br />I'm a firm believer that Nationals have vested too much faith in their young talent and have used free agency wisely. <br /><br />Going into this year Rizzo failed to add a reliable bat to lineup even though his establish lineup consisted of players who were frequnetly on the DL and, in the case of Zimm, Laroche, and Werth, players who are on the down slope of their respective careers. I believe Rizzo expected young players Harper, Rendon, & Ramos to come to form early this season. We see how that has worked out.<br /><br />The Nats have had one of the best pitching staffs in MLB for the past 3+ seasons. They've invested prospects in acquiring Gio and Fister. Free agency dollars in Soriano, Harren, and Edwin Jackon. They have had a surplus pitching talent. But even the best pitching staff cannot overcome a total lack offense. Remember the legendary Braves pitching staff. How many championships did they win? <br /><br />Despite conventional wisdom, hitting wins championships not pitching. If you look at the past 10 World Series Champions all of those teams (except SF) have been top 5 in run production. The exception, SF, play in one the most pitcher friendly parks in MLB.<br /><br />The Nats will never become the elite team they think they are until they commit serious money towards legitimate All-Star caliber hitters. Guys who can stay healthy for 150 games season.nicoxenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12919499690593370391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72247183953639663742014-05-23T05:35:26.283-07:002014-05-23T05:35:26.283-07:00I would agree that there are few questions about R...I would agree that there are few questions about Rizzo the scout, but there are more questions about Rizzo the people person. Riggleman, Storen, Clippard and on and on. Even the whole fake tough thing on the Phillies and the we're better than the Braves thing this year. Hopefully, it'll all work out in the end.<br /><br />I guess the Braves win a game and the Braves fans have to come over and talk trash on this board. Never understood that too much. The Braves offense is healthy. The Braves offense is next to last in the month of May. The only problem - the Nats are last. The big difference is that the Nats have people coming back from injury. You can argue they are injury prone, but you can't argue that for the most part other than Freeman and Justin Upton the Braves offense is not so good. These thoughts are echoed by many baseball writers - not just a Nats fan bashing on the Braves.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74856677624715185342014-05-23T05:32:39.071-07:002014-05-23T05:32:39.071-07:00This armchair GMing is really easy. If the Nats do...This armchair GMing is really easy. If the Nats don't overpay for Desmond's decline or pay Zimmermann like Hamels in extension offers, and they walk, it'll be a failure. If they do pony up, and then they perform as predicted, it will also be a failure since they overpaid, and presumably will not be able to keep other useful players at their desired rates. <br /><br />If Rizzo had kept Morse as the 4th OF/backup 1B in 2013 and he kept those Seattle numbers, we'd be able to complain about how he streaky he is, and can't stay healthy or play defense, and they should have traded him and got something before he became a free agent. Also, another faction would say how he was screwed to begin with since he was set up not to play enough to get as much value on the market by sharing positions.<br /><br />I would imagine Rick Schu ought to be sending out resumes.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30420459560749695772014-05-23T04:39:29.597-07:002014-05-23T04:39:29.597-07:00@John C. Thanks so much for completely misrepresen...@John C. Thanks so much for completely misrepresenting what I said, but hey strawmen are always easier to debate. I said Rizzo's decisions haven't worked out since Game 5 in 2012. The bench in 2013 fail, Nate McLouth - fail, Tyler Moore-Not a big leaguer, Dan Haren- Not good, deal for Span... See a pattern here? The Fister deal was great, but even that hasn't worked out quite as well as expected. <br /><br />Then there's all the discord that's spilled out into the media from Storen and Clippers, to Espinosa and Detwiler, to Strasburg, to Harper and MW. In a day and age when most teams are buying out the first one or two years of FA, the Nats have been spurned by people like Desmond in trying to sign long term deals and haven't bought out any years of FA for their young team. Now you can ascribe that all to crazy people on the internet who think they know better, but it's tough to make an argument in defense of Rizzo over that time frame. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-73920291006083023162014-05-22T16:05:35.503-07:002014-05-22T16:05:35.503-07:00DezoPenguin said...
After all the whining about ho...<i> DezoPenguin said...<br />After all the whining about how Dombrowski somehow won the Fister trade .....</i><br />Was this really a thing? I must have missed that one completely. I am going to stick with Fister :)<br /><br />I mostly agree with John C's take, especially on Rizzo, but I do admit to some fatigue over 15 months of the team not winning as much as I think it should. Makes me wonder whether the assumptions on some of the core players were too optimistic. I think if this level of play holds throughout the rest of the season, they may need to consider swapping out some position guys. I won't speculate on who, there are too many variables. <br /><br />But as for going for it, I wouldn't pay a ransom for a bat just for this year, but the one guy that I might pay up for is Jose Bautista. He's the kind of bat we need (everyone needs), has the positional flexibility to hedge at corner IF and OF and he is signed through 2015. I know we can't get him because TOR is in the thick of it, but he'd be a perfect fit.<br /><br />Lastly, I'd be up for a Zim experiment in LF. Whatever creates more options for the line up is a good thing, in my book.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30414245922877272022014-05-22T14:29:20.967-07:002014-05-22T14:29:20.967-07:00Troll alert.Troll alert.Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-3859735881252023552014-05-22T13:54:12.779-07:002014-05-22T13:54:12.779-07:00Jay: You're just hilariously ignorant about th...Jay: You're just hilariously ignorant about the Braves, so I can only hope Mike Rizzo is thinking the same kinds of things and declines to upgrade his team.<br /><br />Players you made obvious, embarrassing errors about in the course of about two sentences: Heyward, Simmons, Gattis, Santana, Minor, Wood.<br /><br />The Braves will walk to the NL East title over Bryce Harper's smoking corpse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37000724396444916382014-05-22T13:29:45.240-07:002014-05-22T13:29:45.240-07:00Zimmerman will not play left field. It's just ...Zimmerman will not play left field. It's just not going to happen. That would be a move way too far outside the lines for this lot that still thinks Span is a lead off hitter, while virtually every other position in the lineup moves on a regular basis.<br /><br />I know the team is still relatively young, and half the decent bats are injured, along with one of the top pitchers, but I feel like if I listen closely, I can actually hear the window slowly closing. We will all be talking in 7 or 8 years about the 2012 Strasburg shutdown as the curse that haunts the team.<br /><br />As Harper said at the beginning of the season: the team is good, but the injury bug could be killer. We got the injury bug bad, and the prophecy is being fulfilled.Kenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36090593374278800132014-05-22T12:25:38.012-07:002014-05-22T12:25:38.012-07:00After all the whining about how Dombrowski somehow...After all the whining about how Dombrowski somehow won the Fister trade, I am experiencing some schadenfreude today at Ray getting lit up by the Rangers. Just saying. ;)<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-89094176953156454832014-05-22T10:31:18.827-07:002014-05-22T10:31:18.827-07:00I am hoping that LaRoche will help a lot when he g...I am hoping that LaRoche will help a lot when he gets back. Werth and Rendon were killing the ball when LaRoche was playing. Now that Ramos is hitting sub-.200 behind Werth, suddenly Werth and Rendon have cooled off. I am still encouraged. Hopefully, LaRoche provides some protection for Werth and Rendon.<br /><br />I agree that the Braves look to closer to an 88 win team than a 95 win team. Their offense isn't very good. I'm also not convinced that outside of Julio Teheran the starting pitching won't end up league average, and yes Ervin Santana stinks. I know Harper disagrees, but no one wanted Santana until the Braves came knocking. He's a half-step above Edwin Jackson. Good stuff, so so results. He has a lifetime ERA of over 4. Had an ERA of over 5 his last year in LA. They couldn't wait to get him out of town in LA. He only turned it up in KC for the supposed big contract he was going to get - which never happened bc everyone knew better. Combine that with their not so great offense and issues arise. The other big thing to remember - the Braves will have to trade for help. At this point does anyone think BJ Upton, Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward, or even Andrelton Simmons are going to become even average on offense? Even Evan Gattis is looking like an at best average catcher. The Braves right now on offense are Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton most nights. That's a lot of swings and misses by Atlanta management.<br /><br />Finally, I suspect Zimmerman ends up in LF and the Nats try to recapture 2012. If Span continues to struggle (last few games not included), then Harper goes to CF and Zimm becomes an upgrade on Mike Morse from 2012. Rendon bats leadoff. Espinosa plays everyday and the infield defense becomes a lot better. If Span hits (like the last few games) then Zimm is only in LF until Harper is back.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85998451922664195902014-05-22T09:33:02.382-07:002014-05-22T09:33:02.382-07:00Good points Harper. The Nats offense started out g...Good points Harper. The Nats offense started out good:<br />April 2014: 258/.327/.414/.327 <br /><br />But now:<br />May 2014: .230/.284/.346/.280<br /><br />Which looks a lot like: <br />May 2013:.233/.286/.376/.290 <br /><br />The starting pitching is coming around and the bullpen continues to be awesome.<br /><br />The key will be whether the bench can hold the fort until the cavalry arrives.<br /><br />Good news is we do have 7 games against the Cubs before the All Star break!Chas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-71749697791720489752014-05-22T09:27:25.062-07:002014-05-22T09:27:25.062-07:00I find it hilarious that fans (JWLumley) on intern...I find it hilarious that fans (JWLumley) on internet sites roast Mike Rizzo on a regular basis. By any objective analysis Rizzo is <i>really</i> good at his job. He stepped into a truly awful team with a decimated farm system and has built a very good organization in a pretty short period of time. <br /><br />And make no mistake, the 2014 Nats that Rizzo built are a very good team. Take away a top starting pitcher (first Fister, now Gio) and <i>four</i> middle of the order bats (Ramos, Zimmerman, Harper, ALR) from <i>any</i> team and they're going to struggle. That's just reality. And despite that the Nats are over .500 and right there jockeying for playoff position. <br /><br />No, he's not perfect; no GM is. He's not the best GM in baseball (whoever that might be). But he's in the tier right behind that. John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81164760258428699342014-05-22T09:23:28.523-07:002014-05-22T09:23:28.523-07:00"It's a team of Kevin Frandsens."
S..."It's a team of Kevin Frandsens."<br /><br />Suddenly, FP's insistence that Frandsen is the team MVP makes a lot more sense! A Fly Moseshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01386531522336214402noreply@blogger.com