tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post6124674733145800257..comments2024-03-18T07:03:39.210-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Nightmare at Nats Park 2 - Comeuppance's RevengeHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-68004896587007716102014-01-04T08:37:07.398-08:002014-01-04T08:37:07.398-08:00That... tends to happen when one gets insufferably...That... tends to happen when one gets insufferably snarky. Math is so far from my strong suit, it's a made-up German suit like the Jack of Bells or the Five of Acorns.Anon21noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90508728696611034782014-01-03T19:06:47.176-08:002014-01-03T19:06:47.176-08:00The Braves won 96 games and the Nats won 86. If th...The Braves won 96 games and the Nats won 86. If the Nats had won 5 more games against the Braves the records would be 91 wins a piece. Just saying.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-70913370789606126722014-01-03T16:50:37.397-08:002014-01-03T16:50:37.397-08:00Harper - great post. I had thought the starters w...Harper - great post. I had thought the starters were worse than generally thought, but it is good to see it analytically shown. It is worth noting that Stras not only was down 1 WAR, but also pitched 20 more IPs suggesting rate wise he was even worse. But when you look at that bench, you really are right for holding Rizzo accountable for failing to pull the trigger on improvements earlier. And how he isn't over reaching for the bench this year is beyond me. I agree with Chris that another lefty bat would be comforting (Chavez would have looked great), and maybe Baker. But I don't think TMo should be on the bench.<br /><br />As for the Braves v. Nats, I think it is very close. We each have reasons to feel good and worry, and in their favor, they played well most recently, which counts for something. ATL is undeniably worse for losing McCann and to a lesser extent Hudson. But if I were them, I'd feel good that JUp and Heyward will play better. Not so sure about BJ, and Chris Johnson has to regress quite a bit. As for us, how would we feel about RZim and Span if the season ended Aug 15? Plus, we both have long term worries that subpar TV deals will hurt our financial competitiveness.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8574877255786060232014-01-03T14:21:37.256-08:002014-01-03T14:21:37.256-08:00Not to be insufferably snarky, but given the Brave...Not to be <i>insufferably</i> snarky, but given the Braves' lead at the end of the season, I think it would be not just hard, but impossible to point to any number of head-to-head games fewer than 10 that would have changed the outcome of the division race.Anon21noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57703840167929523152014-01-03T13:57:24.974-08:002014-01-03T13:57:24.974-08:00Yeah, you are probably right about Atlanta. It wa...Yeah, you are probably right about Atlanta. It was more of an impression. Their season as all about 3 or 4 long win streaks with sub-.500 ball the rest of the time. Gattis stepped up early with Upton being hot to trigger that first win streak. And a lot of their games in those streaks were won by 1 or 2 runs. In 2012, it seemed like the Nats were getting the clutch hit at the right time. In 2013, it seemed like the Braves were the team getting that clutch hit, at least during those streaks. They were 6-3 against the Nats in 1 run games, for instance. <br /><br />But most of the time, they sure didn't look like a dominant team -- several holes in the line-up; losing record on the road. I wasn't at all surprised to see them eliminated in the first round. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them win fewer games next year. That doesn't mean I think they will fall off completely, but it wouldn't be hard to point to a half dozen close games between them and the Nats that if they had gone the other way, we'd have been in 1st.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-89718910608790714392014-01-03T11:58:32.287-08:002014-01-03T11:58:32.287-08:00Yeah, it's fairly ludicrous to say the Braves ...Yeah, it's fairly ludicrous to say the Braves had everything go right when their two highest-paid players combined for just under 1000 PA of replacement level production. I'll acknowledge that the Nats had a lot go wrong, but even so I'm chuckling at Schoenfield picking them to win the division that they just lost by 10 games; I think as we get further and further from 2012, it will become clear that that was the fluke year for the Nats. Get used to mediocrity.Anon21noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-38532622467713634952014-01-03T10:04:01.565-08:002014-01-03T10:04:01.565-08:00I don't know about the Braves having everythin...I don't know about the Braves having everything go right, though. The pitching, maybe, but Heyward regressed badly, Justin Upton had a great April but was a lot more like his 2012 self after that, Simmons hit enough to justify his existence given his brilliant glove but certainly not enough to notice, Uggla was truly awful, and B.J. Upton was unspeakable. Against that they got a semi-breakout season from Freeman and a real suprise positive from Johnson, plus a fast start from Gattis while McCann was hurt.<br /><br />Looking ahead to 2014, you have to assume they'll be better. Assuming that Freeman, Simmons, and J. Upton are pretty much who we think they are and they stay level, 3B will probably have some drop-off, as will C (Gattis/Laird instead of McCann/Gattis), but B.J. will probably improve, you have to expect some bounce-back from Heyward, possibly significantly ("He'd be a Hall-of-Famer if baseball was only played in even-numbered years" is starting to be career description), and if Uggla doesn't improve they'll pitch him right off the team and replacement-level would be an upgrade. So overall, I don't expect Atlanta's offense to get any worse this year.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74650796427308183292014-01-03T08:45:17.846-08:002014-01-03T08:45:17.846-08:00While I know it's a gamble, I have to hope tha...While I know it's a gamble, I have to hope that everything doesn't go wrong again. And I don't know for sure, but it sure felt like the Braves had everything go right. If things just revert to the mean, I think the Nats are roughly even. Adding Fister over Haren may be enough. The other thing is Harper. If he has a break-out, MVP quality year, the Nats could be pretty tough to beat, barring major injuries to pitchers.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-75916846804003526742014-01-03T08:05:31.839-08:002014-01-03T08:05:31.839-08:00Chris - it's certainly unfinished. In your sce...Chris - it's certainly unfinished. In your scenario, right now, I guess you hope a lefty started and you have LaRoche on the bench. <br /><br />I'm a bit bothered because when it comes to the bench it seems like the org is trying to play around to see how little it can do and still be successful. Last year it tried nothing, this year it's trying some decent OFers. It may all work out but dammit go all-in for once. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90796211652385793842014-01-03T07:22:19.759-08:002014-01-03T07:22:19.759-08:00Brad - fair enough. changed.
Brad - fair enough. changed. <br /><br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-42903705735548344802014-01-03T07:20:38.518-08:002014-01-03T07:20:38.518-08:00What worries me going into next year is the bench ...What worries me going into next year is the bench construction, as currently composed. <br /><br />McClouth is the only real left-handed bat on the bench. And he's not a great hitter -- signed more for his versatility/speed/averageness than anything.<br /><br />When it's the 8th or 9th, and there's a righty closer on the mound, who are you turning to? It's either McClouth, Espinosa, or hoping one of the righties can make do.<br /><br />That's troublesome. Chris Needhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10455692848328638937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58939614132830297832014-01-03T07:18:23.323-08:002014-01-03T07:18:23.323-08:00Considering the mass shooting at the actual Navy Y...Considering the mass shooting at the actual Navy Yard, perhaps a different headline?Bradley Herringhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04526773571123865080noreply@blogger.com