tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post6142717847712730639..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - and so it goes Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-50451764947940984852018-12-12T16:31:13.501-08:002018-12-12T16:31:13.501-08:00Trading one Tanner for another Tanner? What the . ...Trading one Tanner for another Tanner? What the . . .?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-1275119900132181012018-12-12T16:20:06.281-08:002018-12-12T16:20:06.281-08:00au revoir msr Roark. Tanner off to the Reds. Sonny...au revoir msr Roark. Tanner off to the Reds. Sonny Gray to the Nats?CardinalXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16302101047571185852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-17486158272511897292018-12-12T14:27:06.961-08:002018-12-12T14:27:06.961-08:00We also didn’t make the playoffs with that rotatio...We also didn’t make the playoffs with that rotation. I know what you’re saying though, and I hope we get someone else too. But it’s important to note, that with a healthy Strasburg, that is an unmatched three-headed monster there. I think it’s hasty to say that this team is a first round and out kind of team. Ole PBNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-21722511469960508722018-12-12T13:21:41.105-08:002018-12-12T13:21:41.105-08:00Morton to the Rays. I really wanted Morton. I th...Morton to the Rays. I really wanted Morton. I think the Nats are their usual first round and out team with Max-Stras-Corbin. But I think a good #4 (more like a second #3) puts them into the next round of the playoffs. Happ and Morton were probably the best of the affordable options left. Maybe Rizzo pulls off some great trade. Maybe Roark gets in shape and wins 14, which would be excellent. Maybe Ross comes all the way back (still with the innings limit). I prefer not to gamble, so would like a real solid acquisition to deepen the rotation, like when we had Max-JZ-Gio-Stras. We shall see.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-66522154805373807702018-12-12T10:59:49.324-08:002018-12-12T10:59:49.324-08:00I agree with Jay. In trying to read between the GM...I agree with Jay. In trying to read between the GM-lines, I'm thinking there may be a big difference between what the Nats want to pay in arbitration and what MLBTR and/or Roark's agent estimates he should get. The Nats do not like to go to a hearing and lose - they have traded guys who won in arbitration. OTOH, all Rizzo has said is that they would need to sign another starter before dealing Tanner - which probably means, yes, they are looking to acquire a better starter, because if Roark is sort of a back-end (albeit durable) starting pitcher for 10 million, why not trade him and get a better guy for a few million more or at the cost of a non-prospect or two?<br /><br />Happ is about to go off the market. After Keutchel and Morton sign, it would be difficult to upgrade except by a trade, since you'd be looking at guys like Gio, Cahill, Miley, and Sanchez who aren't demonstrably better. Sabathia got 8m, you might save a few million. Rizzo would be negligent if he didn't listen to what the offers are now. It would be better to trade him now before the hearing when his value is a bit more vague, but I would be surprised if Roark was paid 10 million by the Nationals. I'd rather trade him to Arizona for Greinke and some cash. Get Mark Lerner on board for more luxury tax.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-39404765884731071772018-12-12T09:19:03.530-08:002018-12-12T09:19:03.530-08:00I would guess the thinking on Tanner is that they ...I would guess the thinking on Tanner is that they want to upgrade a lot. Plus Tanner has looked shaky for a good part of the last two years. He was part of the reason the Nats started on their skid in mid-season. Anyway, if they figure they can spend an extra $5-10 million per year in addition to Roark's $10 million that is a pretty good upgrade. If they sign someone for close to the same money, then they must figure Roark is on his last legs.<br /><br />I'm ok with picking up a 2B. Last year everyone figured Eaton was going to be fine by the beginning of the year and he wasn't. If Kendrick isn't ready then you're talking a month or two of Wilmer Difoe. That is suboptimal.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57013210988290885972018-12-12T09:01:35.397-08:002018-12-12T09:01:35.397-08:00@potomacFan
I don't get it either he pitches ...@potomacFan<br /><br />I don't get it either he pitches 180 innings every year and is always healthy. It seems counter-intuitive to replace him with a little better older option when we have several health questions throughout the starting five (strasburg and whichever rehabing starter we put at the 5 spot).Jimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08536083039518387432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-84279016301402154702018-12-12T08:23:51.428-08:002018-12-12T08:23:51.428-08:00Why in the world would the Nationals trade Tanner ...Why in the world would the Nationals trade Tanner Roark? And for what? Roark is a darn good 4th starter. Never injured, eats innings (although not so much in the first half of last year), pitches to a low 4.00 ERA, and wins more than half of his games (last year excepted). And he's not expensive ($10 million). PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-79525152258958980812018-12-12T06:01:59.178-08:002018-12-12T06:01:59.178-08:00@Bx: Yeah, like Josh said, mention at the start o...@Bx: Yeah, like Josh said, mention at the start of your comments whom you're replying to. And yes, I did mean Edgar Martinez, not J.D. Martinez.<br /><br />@Cardinal: Worth noting is that the "Coors Effect" plays both ways. Traditionally, Rockies hitters have exaggerated home numbers but suppressed road numbers. So projecting LeMahieu's performance on a non-Rockies team is not the same as applying his road splits to the full season. That said, unless you're a big believer in DRC+ as a measure of hitting, signing LeMahieu would definitely be a glove-first move (in his entire career, he's posted a wRC+ of 100 or higher only once, in 2016; the last two years he also had negative baserunning value).<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-18728157863686657342018-12-12T05:47:47.854-08:002018-12-12T05:47:47.854-08:00@Bx you need to make it clearer who you're rep...@Bx you need to make it clearer who you're replying to if you're going to post 5 consecutive comments in 15 minutes.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-1766793997912145072018-12-11T23:49:28.871-08:002018-12-11T23:49:28.871-08:00dj's glove plays. but his home/away splits sca...dj's glove plays. but his home/away splits scare me. CardinalXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16302101047571185852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-50058536937521473112018-12-11T21:31:48.795-08:002018-12-11T21:31:48.795-08:00This is why I think it’s possible that Harper ends...This is why I think it’s possible that Harper ends up not getting the big money offer that easily out-distances the 300m offer from the Nats. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-41410884872173902002018-12-11T21:30:22.182-08:002018-12-11T21:30:22.182-08:00To be clear you meant Edgar Martinez was a decent ...To be clear you meant Edgar Martinez was a decent 3B, not JD Martinez, who was a heinous outfielder, right?BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29111746448754929352018-12-11T21:28:22.985-08:002018-12-11T21:28:22.985-08:00I think it def makes sense for reasons stated abov...I think it def makes sense for reasons stated above. It makes so sense for a SS or CF playing average defense at their position to have the same dWAR as a 1B or DH, since the latter by definition are incapable of playing harder positions. The DH is the DH because if he played defense he would be a bad defensive player. You’re trying to estimate the value of a given player. What would not make sense is the alternative IMO. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52597335314762151882018-12-11T21:25:53.176-08:002018-12-11T21:25:53.176-08:00No that’s correct. Because WAR assigns negative dW...No that’s correct. Because WAR assigns negative dWAR for defensively non value positions and it gives a little bonus for playing value positions like catcher or shortstop. The idea being that Manny Machado shouldn’t get beat up in his value when he moves from 3B to SS and goes from best 3B defensively in baseball to an average shortstop. The same player really should have the same value. So for DH somebody properly should be the defensive value of a below average defensive player at say 1B or RF. Harold Baines shouldn’t have a higher value than somebody who was chosen over him on the Orioles to actually play defense (since obviously that player has more defensive value since he is CAPABLE of playing defense.) think of Ortiz. Clearly he shouldn’t be getting 0 dWAR, since plug him into 1B or the outfield and he’s going to be negative value. WAR is trying to estimate the player’s value to a team, so it has to ding people who are sufficiently bad on defense that they can’t play difficult defensive positions (or no positions at all.) If DH got 0 dWAR you’d have the perverse situation where a shortstop like say Trea Turner was “average” shortstop play and got 0 WAR he and Harold Baines would have the same defensive value. So every position gets a bump of loses one. (I think the nuetral d position is 3B....you get a small bump at 2B and a large one at CF and SS and C, and u get downgraded as a corner outfielder or 1B and seriously downgraded as a DH. You SHOULD have to be an awesome bat as a DH to create value since you’re playing half the game. This is why it is fair that very few DHs should be in HOF. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87747228039272395222018-12-11T21:17:06.176-08:002018-12-11T21:17:06.176-08:00Yes sorry I meant worst non pitcher. Yes sorry I meant worst non pitcher. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12250167081802115292018-12-11T11:11:42.820-08:002018-12-11T11:11:42.820-08:00Hopefully the Today's Game Committee will get ...Hopefully the Today's Game Committee will get in gear and put Lou Whitaker in. His rapid dismissal from the writers' ballot was one of the true absurdities of their voting.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-57031004772673284922018-12-11T05:23:44.674-08:002018-12-11T05:23:44.674-08:00These veteran committees seem to be completely abo...These veteran committees seem to be completely about having advocates and not merit. I agree about the DH penalty being too harsh, because I do believe its a bit more like pinch hitting four times a game than people think - but just as a starting point, even if you call Baines 1B-ish, he's got 10 or 12 guys his era who are better, and why aren't they even on that list? Clearly the hall of pretty good.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-27649200878323630972018-12-11T05:10:33.883-08:002018-12-11T05:10:33.883-08:00Bancroft got in 40 years after he played too, and ...Bancroft got in 40 years after he played too, and it was a cronyism scandal when he did. Rizzuto had the advantage of bridging the DiMaggio/Dickey and Mantle/Berra eras. Also gets WWII credit. I know a lot of people who couldn't stand Rizzuto as a broadcaster. I would say he's about as polarizing as Hawk Harrelson.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12273280321911648072018-12-10T20:40:03.191-08:002018-12-10T20:40:03.191-08:00Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich belong in the hall wa...Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich belong in the hall way before Harold Baines.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Harper's market is collapsing. Yanks out, Nats probably out. He doesn't want to go to the ChiSox. Dodgers are interested but fairly loaded already, Cubs ditto. The Phillies look like the only team prepared to bid against themselves and give him what he wants. Hope not. I think the market correction is real and it's not collusion, it's sabermetrics that's doing it.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45864284214088555462018-12-10T17:31:03.879-08:002018-12-10T17:31:03.879-08:00@OlePBN: The basic theory behind giving a DH a ne...@OlePBN: The basic theory behind giving a DH a negative positional adjustment is the underlying assumption that if they were any good at defense, the manager would be playing them at, well, a defensive position. Basically, the DH is by definition, the worst defensive player in the lineup because they wouldn't BE DHing if they were better in the field than any of the other OF/IF positions. And this is generally how the DH is used; for all the talk of rotating guys through and the like, there's never an equal time-share in the position. Like, if the Nats were in the AL, we'd either play Soto (bad at defense) or Eaton (occasional rest) at DH and have Taylor and Robles in the OF most of the time. It's why the Red Sox played Benintendi/Bradley/Betts most of the time and Martinez at DH.<br /><br />Whether the positional penalty applied to DH accurately reflects the position is a subject for argument. Jeff Zimmerman did some analytical work a few years ago, for example, that showed that there is a statistical "DH penalty" for most players--that most hitters hit better as a position player than as a DH, whether because playing the field keeps their mind in the game or whatever. Hitters like Martinez (who was also a good fielder at 3B before he switched to DH) or Ortiz, who excel at DH, are relatively few. This suggested that the positional adjustment for DH should be no worse than 1B. So it's an ongoing subject of analysis, and more refinement suggests that guys like Baines (or Martinez, Ortiz, or Frank Thomas) may look better for their careers when the numbers get tweaked.<br /><br />But basically, the point is that most DHs are too old, or slow, or recovering from injury, or generally iron-gloved to be wanted in the field, and putting them in the DH spot for the sake of their bat forces the team to put somebody else just a little bit less old, slow, hurt, or iron-gloved out in the field.<br /><br />That said, Harold Baines's biggest skill seems to be to have avoided serious injury or deterioration for a great length of time. Heck, he had the second-best offensive season of his career at age 40. "Solidly above average for a really long time" is worth something. I'm just not sure that "something" is a Hall of Fame berth.<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43123731561905976002018-12-10T14:24:49.831-08:002018-12-10T14:24:49.831-08:00blovy8 - Rizzuto got in way later than the other g...blovy8 - Rizzuto got in way later than the other guys on those teams. Like twenty years. Hell, he went in after Catfish and Reggie. Perez was coattails. Rizzuto was goodwill toward a beloved sportscaster. <br /><br />OlePBN - dWAR is an adjustment in comparison to the average player defense so all DHs have a negative value. yeah a lot of people say it doesn't make sense/is too confusing. But the other option is DHs are treated like average fielders. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86615562439312286532018-12-10T13:15:13.987-08:002018-12-10T13:15:13.987-08:00My dream scenario is signing Harper and then tradi...My dream scenario is signing Harper and then trading for Kluber.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85927782327482744582018-12-10T11:41:58.642-08:002018-12-10T11:41:58.642-08:00I'd love to see us come out of the Winter meet...I'd love to see us come out of the Winter meetings trading a few prospects to the Reds for Scooter Gennett...make it happen!SuburbanStevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67015723836173437612018-12-10T11:28:55.345-08:002018-12-10T11:28:55.345-08:00Bx/Blovy - regarding Baines' WAR, and the only...Bx/Blovy - regarding Baines' WAR, and the only defense I'll have for such a bogus HOF member, is that it's a little misleading. All of the seasons where Baines was exclusively used as a DH (meaning he didn't play a single inning in the field), he put up the following dWAR figures:<br /><br />1993: -1.1<br />1994: -0.8<br />1995: -1.1<br />1996: -1.0<br />1998: -0.7<br />1999: -1.0<br />2000: -0.6<br />2001: -0.2<br /><br />How the hell does that work? How can you negatively rate someone for not even playing? It's a huge reason why I have a problem with these advanced stats like WAR. Ole PBNnoreply@blogger.com