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Do you think he has a place on this team as a starter or no?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-91857140602472295902012-10-03T01:28:48.841-07:002012-10-03T01:28:48.841-07:00PChuck - Lombardozzi finished with a sub .700 OPS....PChuck - Lombardozzi finished with a sub .700 OPS. I love the guy, but .700 OPS is right about replacement level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-68261375803869839192012-10-02T22:18:36.441-07:002012-10-02T22:18:36.441-07:00I want Ejax to go out and prove me wrong tomorrow ...I want Ejax to go out and prove me wrong tomorrow and make me feel like he should be in the first tier. <br /><br />Prove me wrong Ejax!<br /><br />Also, is Coach DeRosa one or two hits away from ending the season above Mendoza line??Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-22080140519060321082012-10-02T20:51:33.138-07:002012-10-02T20:51:33.138-07:00I think Harper's point about Lannan is this: ...I think Harper's point about Lannan is this: he was the #7 starter. Every time he pitched a game, he gave the team a chance to win (and indeed, the team *did* win most of them). That's "exceeding expectations" for any #7 starter that I've ever heard of.<br /><br />Kind of agree with Froggy on EJax, kind of don't. That is to say, he pitched to expectations. He was pretty much the same guy he was last year, some sparkling games, some duds. But again, he was the #4 starter and he considerably outpitched most #4 starters, and by doing so, that makes him a net asset to the team's success. (Whether he pitched to his *contract*, now that's a different story; I'd say he fell way short of that.)<br />DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23641373267624861062012-10-02T20:46:55.831-07:002012-10-02T20:46:55.831-07:00I don't know about Lombo. Overall I'd hav...I don't know about Lombo. Overall I'd have to agree with Harper's assessment when looking at the full season, but he played his best ball of the year early on when he was the fill-in LF and leadoff hitter, back when Werth was hurt, Morse was hurt, Zimm was underperforming, Epsi's hitting was still awful and the team desperately needed anyone to go out there and do something useful. Without him being productive, the month of May could have turned out several games worse than it did and we might be looking up at the Braves right now. He tailed off rapidly to become the singles-hitting utility infielder with mediocre speed we all thought he was, but by then that was all he had to be. I'd bump Lombo up out of the Ankiel category simply because of the timeliness of his performance--something obviously created by pure luck, as Harper already commented, but...yeah, we *did* get lucky there.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-32660967756178757352012-10-02T14:47:06.541-07:002012-10-02T14:47:06.541-07:00Nattydread - C'mon, don't you know there ...Nattydread - C'mon, don't you know there is a bromance between Harper and Lohn Jannon? <br /><br />Harper - after taking another look at it, I see your point about Lombo. However, I think Clippard should move up one, and (I know this borders on heresy...but,) I think in spite of his 9 wins, Jackson should move down to the 'Fell short but didn't hurt the team' category. <br /><br />I guess if your expectations are for him to do what he did, then yes he met expectations. But I expect pitchers to either win .500 of their games to meet expectations. He was net neutral in IMO.<br /><br />On the other hand, the playoffs bring a new season and maybe this is where we make our money off of Jackson with his experience of already been there.Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4877348594891455152012-10-02T14:46:48.700-07:002012-10-02T14:46:48.700-07:00Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on one pha...Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on one phase of the game, but I'm not sure Flores hurt that much. He didn't contribute much with the bat, but he was reliable and seemed to really call a good game. Our starters seemed to perform best with Flores behind the plate. That could be luck or maybe the reality doesn't match my perception, but that's my sense.<br /><br />Nice way to look at the team as a whole though. I think it is valid to say the team overperformed. Some of that feeds on itself though. If the guy behind you is hitting, then you see better pitches. If the infield plays great then pitchers look even better. I think the key to the rise primarily came from three sources... Desmond, Gio and Harper. I think without those guys having amazing seasons the rest of the overperformers might not look quite so good. Although thinking back to early in the year, LaRoche really carried the offense.JonQuestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77593282572963031962012-10-02T13:50:40.048-07:002012-10-02T13:50:40.048-07:00Difficult to put John Lannan in the "met or e...Difficult to put John Lannan in the "met or exceeded expectations" category. Not my expectations, at least.Nattydreadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53868650924500855412012-10-02T13:31:08.808-07:002012-10-02T13:31:08.808-07:00While you're on the subject of luck, it might ...While you're on the subject of luck, it might be useful to analyze managerial luck in games and GM luck-of-the-draw so to speak.<br /><br />Davey Johnson seems to generate his own luck. His baseball intelligence is off the charts.<br /><br />Rizzo made some clunker moves -- Brad Lidge, HRod and Wang -- but also some gems. Suzuki, Gio (he and Beane must really get along!), Chad and, finally, Laroche & Werth. A good deal of luck there.Nattydreadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13006768161323063202012-10-02T13:27:12.946-07:002012-10-02T13:27:12.946-07:00Donald - oh yeah Lidge isn't on because of an ...Donald - oh yeah Lidge isn't on because of an innings limit. I didn't want to list EVERYONE and he sucked so bad that he only got 9 innings in. <br /><br />Looking at full year. Zimm underperformed then was awesome so the net result is he was around expectations. Morse is actually hitting .286 and while 17 homers is good (again didn't HURT) it's not the slugging he put up before that most Nats fans were looking for.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-62427525177345598462012-10-02T13:19:28.270-07:002012-10-02T13:19:28.270-07:00Mostly, I just want Brad Lidge to show up in some ...Mostly, I just want Brad Lidge to show up in some totally underperformed category, since he blew a bunch of saves and then acted like a douche when he got cut. I may not agree with where you put Clippard, but I can live with it.<br /><br />Also, I'm not sure how consistent you are being with injuries. By 'while healthy' do you mean off the DL, or actually recovered? Zim underperformed and hurt the team until he got the cortizone shot. Morse has been playing with a bunch of nagging injuries and still has 16 HRs and a .300 avg. Are you judging Zim just post- shot, but Morse the entire time he's been off the DL? Either way, I think I understand why they are where they are, so I'm good with this as long as Lidge takes his lumps.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-58549923979284527892012-10-02T13:07:48.157-07:002012-10-02T13:07:48.157-07:00Anon - you're right those guys should have mor...Anon - you're right those guys should have more wins but that the offense's fault for not scoring early enough. Those wins didn't disappear. They were mostly split out amongst the relievers. <br /><br />What you aren't saying is the Nats would have 105 wins with a little luck, what you are saying is the Nats would have 105 wins if everything that went right still went right and NOTHING went wrong. I'd agree with that. But that's asking for a hell of a lot. <br /><br />Donald - I'd say Phillies/Marlins helpd Nats win 96 games, but assuming all else equal the division is there's right? <br /><br />It's totally a "while healthy" thing so that's why Storen is in the do well. I did have decently high expectations for Clipp - ERA under 3.00, he's been a bit wilder that I'd hoped - like I said fell short but didn't hurt the team because the expectation was up there. <br /><br />It seems like you guys want Lombo & Clip moved into meet/exceed expectations which would only make the Nats seem luckier, you know? Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-39660799831412262982012-10-02T12:46:12.192-07:002012-10-02T12:46:12.192-07:00I have a small issue with the relief pitchers. I ...I have a small issue with the relief pitchers. I don't think it's fair to list Storen as doing as well or better than expected while putting Clippard in the 'fell short' category. It's only because of Clippard's performance through August that Storen's injury and slow recovery didn't hurt the team. Maybe your expectations for Clippard were really high, but he was awesome as the closer for most of the season. It wasn't until you had already called it for us that he started to slide in a big way. Overall, he blew 5 games and saved 32, plus a bunch of holds. I think he helped the team quite a bit.<br /><br />Also, you should probably add Brad Lidge as an underperformer who hurt the team.<br />Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-84858434897638228872012-10-02T12:33:35.419-07:002012-10-02T12:33:35.419-07:00I'm still not sure how to interpret the data, ...I'm still not sure how to interpret the data, but my initial thought as to how the Nats captured the division title this year was partially due to the huge underperformance of the Phillies and Marlins. At the start of the season, there were a lot of analysts picking them to be at the top of the division. <br /><br />But what's odd is that our record against the Marlins was 9-9 and we're currently 7-9 against the Phillies. It's the Mets, who probably over-performed if anything, that we really beat up on to the tune of 14-4. We're 10-8 against the Braves, which is about right. <br /><br />So if the Phillies and Marlins had done better, I don't know if that would have pulled down the Nats or pulled down the Braves, Reds, Card, Giants, etc.<br /><br />In any case, I definitely feel like we did better than expected but we also had the luck of some teams doing worse.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.com