tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post6796488764180636261..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - Margin callHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43343505539671293312014-07-16T05:13:38.914-07:002014-07-16T05:13:38.914-07:00In my experience Froggy, if you buy a guy's je...In my experience Froggy, if you buy a guy's jersey, he's almost certainly gone the next year.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74846467067708582014-07-15T14:18:24.623-07:002014-07-15T14:18:24.623-07:00It looks like LaRoche salary is a sunk cost, so wh...It looks like LaRoche salary is a sunk cost, so why not enjoy him as long as we can, right? At the end of the cost benefit analysis, he's the kind of guy we need going into the second half and possibly the post season. Agree with Bloch8, sir him against lefties and use Zim at first. I'm buying a LaRoche jersey next home game! Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-16602391574586317762014-07-15T09:04:16.052-07:002014-07-15T09:04:16.052-07:00Murphy would be a good addition, and even help in ...Murphy would be a good addition, and even help in 2015 at his likely arbitration value, but he's played well enough to raise the asking price and the Mets aren't dumb or desperate enough to give him away anymore. <br /><br />I agree the key at the moment is the health of Zimm, but they do have Treinen. No trade is really necessary unless they feel like Det cannot be stretched out ever again for a doubleheader or that Cole can't have his ML clock started this season. If JZ's out for the year, I might set those gears in motion in a pinch before I'd pony up the price for Price for 45 starts. If their need is assessed as fourth starter level, then Det et al are just as good and why deal for pitching all?<br /><br />You can't part with a hitter like LaRoche when you're trying to win, especially in this run-scoring environment. I think the plan on opening day is still the best one. Sit LaRoche against lefties now and then, transition Zim to 1st, with the added new benefit of working him at left for Harper or Span down the stretch with Espinosa getting some right-handed at-bats and Hairston getting a start a few times in left when the match-up is good. Espinosa has done nothing to really earn more playing time than that. The modest improvement any bench deal would make is probably not worth the minor leaguer(s) they'd give up - such is the developmental puzzle to me, that even an oldish fellow laboring at AA like Cutter Dykstra is now looking like he could get a cup of coffee in an emergency some day. Destin Hood has even started to look like he was worth drafting. <br /><br />The hype on Taylor is getting thick though, I really don't see how someone could think he's ready given his contact issues. Why do they need him to rush him up and waste developmental time, when Souza is raking at the higher level? Taylor's probably a guy who needs AAA where he'll see a lot of off-speed stuff, and it's pretty much guaranteed that 30% K's in AA equal 40% in the ML if not more. Regardless, there aren't atbats to experiment with for these guys currently unless you don't care about the playoffs, you're not looking at Trout, Puig, or Harper-level talent. Just because he's leap-frogged over Goodwin on the prospect list doesn't make him ready.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9352735738460297512014-07-15T05:21:40.652-07:002014-07-15T05:21:40.652-07:00@Froggy -- I agree about that the issue with Zim&#...@Froggy -- I agree about that the issue with Zim's throwing. That's the only reason I raised the topic of dealing LaRoche. They have way more invested in Zim than LaRoche. If the only place on the diamond Zim can reliably play is 1B, then trading LaRoche now may make some sense. If they think Zim can hold down 3B or are willing to sit Span push Zim to LF, then LaRoche stays. But as it stands now, everyone cringes each time Zim has to make a throw from third. He's probably their best hitter but how are people going to feel with him at 3b in a tied play-off game with a fast batter at the plate? Or Zim in LF with the go-ahead runner on third with 1 out? And if you pull Zim for a defensive replacement, how are you going to feel removing his clutch bat?<br /><br />It's okay to roll the dice now while there are a lot of games left to play and the Nats are tied for 1st. How about when there are just a few games left and each one is critical?Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12342108720734362332014-07-14T21:21:43.343-07:002014-07-14T21:21:43.343-07:00John C, true on all counts, especially the up-side...John C, true on all counts, especially the up-side potential of ALR in your last paragraph. For clarification, I didn't mean to imply a trade of Adam for Utley, and that he would get the years Werth got but at least a couple (three?) years at a ridiculous amount. That said, I'm perfectly happy with Danny at 2nd as I think he is in the top five defensive players at his position. Maybe since his numbers/power are better hitting R, he considers making the permanent transition to being a .275 righty with pop. Outside the box thought: can Danny play OF? He has an obviously great infielders arm, bat I know that doesn't always translate to OF's. ANYwayz...move him to L , and Leadoff hitter, and Bryce to CF. (Should I put my crazy thoughts back in the box?)<br /><br />As for ALR, I love the guy and DON'T want him to walk, but since it was pretty clear with the way his last contract negotiations went, he is gone at seasons end. I think it is in his best interests to go to a contending team with short right field fences who needs a platoon 1b/DH now. Besides, the elephant in the room is Zimmerman's throwing shoulder and the certainty of major shoulder surgery or him going to 1b asap. <br /><br />Then again, if there are no teams willing to pay $15 mil for a season then we ride the war horse hard to the post season and afterwards he is UR'd. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51073440840757446522014-07-14T20:22:41.146-07:002014-07-14T20:22:41.146-07:00Froggy, that's a whole lot of wishful thinking...Froggy, that's a whole lot of wishful thinking. For one thing, <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24596102/chase-utley-does-not-plan-on-waiving-no-trade-rights-at-deadline" rel="nofollow">Utley has no intention of waiving his no-trade rights.</a> So Utley isn't donning the Curly W. Thank God - because your riposte that "for Werth-esque money he comes here" would essentially be certifiably insane. The Nats were roasted for throwing Werth-esque money at Werth when he was 31. They've skated by on that so far, but they're facing the downside years now that Werth is 35 with 3 years and $63M left on his contract. Let's add to that by throwing $21M/year at someone who is <i>already</i> 35, turns 36 in December. <br /><br />You are also optimistic in your assessment of LaRoche's value. His contract and age make him pretty much useless to any team that is not contending right now. Most contending teams already have first baseman. And if there was one that could use him, it's unlikely that they have a piece that could help the Nats as much as moving ALR hurts the team. Moving ALR hurts the offense unless you can find a second baseman who hits as well as he does. Good luck with that.<br /><br />The reason that the Nats would be OK with not tendering ALR and letting him walk uncompensated at the end of the season is because <i>he can help them make the postseason</i>. To say nothing of doing damage if they can get there. That's a powerful motivator.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-613769622532861712014-07-14T17:20:40.090-07:002014-07-14T17:20:40.090-07:00Fan favorite emotion aside, I just don't see R...Fan favorite emotion aside, I just don't see Rizzo exercising LaRoch's $15million option for one year, especially with a $2million buy out. He walks at the end of this season anyway, so why don't you deal him for a corner OF(or part of a three team trade that gets us Utley), move Zim to 1st, Rendon to 3rd, and Espy to 2nd? <br /><br />Personally, I think Utley is a perfect fit and for Werth-esque money he comes here. Don't kid yourself, both Werth and Frandsen probably have already convinced him he's on a sinking ship. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-79388816933587913232014-07-14T14:47:57.845-07:002014-07-14T14:47:57.845-07:00Utley has said he's not interested in a trade,...Utley has said he's not interested in a trade, and he can refuse one. He's not coming. Rizzo isn't going to trade a top pitching prospect for a 33yo player with limited team control. He did trade one for a 28yo OF under team control for 2-3 years. And STILL gets roasted for it regularly. So why are we advocating he make a worse deal for Zobrist again?<br /><br />Trading ALR would be nuts. Even with the past week, he's been the top offensive performer on a team that often struggles to score runs. Add that his age & contract status severely limit his market (and thus potential return). He will be gone after the season, that's soon enough. <br /><br />The development of Souza & Taylor (and continued options of Goodwin & Hood) make it quite possible that Span joins ALR & Hairston on the exit ramp for next season. <br /><br />Given that Hairston has actually done his (limited) role pretty well, he's likely staying. Sure the Nats haven't gotten much from McLouth (except walks & defense) so far, but remember that he's likely to do better in the second half through positive regression. John C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00177992237175546115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-6240945182423633312014-07-14T14:11:53.678-07:002014-07-14T14:11:53.678-07:00Rizzo seems very patient. I think he's willing...Rizzo seems very patient. I think he's willing to wait until September to call up Souza, barring an injury of course. He'll then let him pinch hit or have spot starts to evaluate him. <br /><br />As for trading LaRoche now, I don't see it happening either, but it is an interesting option if you could replace his bat with Utley who has significant post-season experience. He's almost certainly gone after this season anyway. Still, I'd be shocked if it happened but before totally dismissing it, do you think the Nats would be weaker or stronger with Utley at 2b and Zim at 1b versus LaRoche at 1b and Zim in LF?Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23411707275925339292014-07-14T14:09:27.998-07:002014-07-14T14:09:27.998-07:00The problem is that "extended tryout to see w...The problem is that "extended tryout to see what you've got" is something you do when you're either basically out of it in the race (and have nothing to lose), or you're trying the prospect at a position of need (like, for example, if Souza was in the Mariners' system, they should call him up immediately and give him a chance because they're in the midst of a race and are running Ackley and Chavez out there at two OF slots).<br /><br />The Nats are tied for first right now, and their problem is that they have too many guys for the OF (Harper, Werth, Span, and Zim), not too few. Calling up Souza puts Harper in CF and means that Zim now has to play 3B so the Zim/Rendon/Espi situation is still going on.<br /><br />Now, bringing up Souza as a 4th OF to take playing time from Hairston or McLouth, like Harper suggested (replacing Hairston), that I could see doing, but he's just not part of the solution to the Nationals' 2014 problems unless he's going to hit in the majors exactly like he did at AAA, which is likely more wishful thinking than practical reality.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-80786860134412429062014-07-14T13:33:22.328-07:002014-07-14T13:33:22.328-07:00@Harper I don't know that Souza will be a stud...@Harper I don't know that Souza will be a stud bat over the second half, and you're right that it's a gamble I highly doubt the Nats will take, but I think they should. Span could be gone after this year and the Nats need to figure out if Harper can play CF every day. They also need to figure out what they have in Souza. As you pointed out the everyday lineup is getting OLD so why not give Souza an extended tryout. Is the potential dropoff of Harper in CF and Souza in LF really that huge? I'm sure it would be a controversy, but factoring that stuff in is a bad way to make decisions. Kind of moot though, because it'll never happen. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-25007151469481092042014-07-14T13:08:47.265-07:002014-07-14T13:08:47.265-07:00This concludes today's digression on BABIP!
...This concludes today's digression on BABIP! <br /><br />Geez those Bonds ISO numbers are terrifying. Holy smokes.Section 220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-78749164144113043622014-07-14T13:01:33.368-07:002014-07-14T13:01:33.368-07:00JWLumley / Anon / Sec 220 - JW looks like he's...JWLumley / Anon / Sec 220 - JW looks like he's reading the ISO line not BABIP. That's the problem nowadays with 92134 different stats, all kind of similar range. <br /><br />Everyone - Souza is killing it. Souza's OPS is SCARY and improving each month. .883 -> .976 -> 1.036 -> 1.325. He could be very very good in the majors. All I'm saying is that there isn't a place for him. If you start him you sit Span. As much as I've been on Span, Span is useful. A meh bat who shouldn't leadoff, yes. But if your #8 hitter is meh, runs the bases well and plays good CF D? Everyone would want that. You take that away from the Nats and the Nats are losing something. You have to guarantee they get something in return. Souza, as awesome as he has been, is no guarantee. He's a gamble. A gamble magnified by the disruption to the team and the short time he'll have to prove himself. (and add a management who loves character when Souza has a PED suspension and other things hanging over his head) Do you gamble with the playoffs on the line? "Yes" is a fair answer but let's not assume for the 2nd half Souza will be a stud and make the decision "stud bat or no stud bat" Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-59280105678436806222014-07-14T13:01:07.821-07:002014-07-14T13:01:07.821-07:00@Anon, everything you've sited is at the big l...@Anon, everything you've sited is at the big league level. Obviously there will be some regression for nearly all AAA players, especially with regards to BABIP as defense is much better in the big leagues. There isn't enough data on minor leaguers to say a .400 BABIP isn't sustainable in AAA. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64454883575666691112014-07-14T12:58:39.400-07:002014-07-14T12:58:39.400-07:00@Section 220 You're right, I was looking at th...@Section 220 You're right, I was looking at the wrong column. Those are his ISO numbers. My eyes are getting old. Still, a .400 BABIP in AAA isn't necessarily unsustainable in AAA. Bonds and Williams were probably bad examples since BABIP isn't as high for power hitters as it is for doubles hitters. Still a BABIP of any number isn't necessarily unsustainable because of how high it is was my point. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15876545574822731382014-07-14T12:51:08.498-07:002014-07-14T12:51:08.498-07:00A "high" BABIP is sometimes sustainable ...A "high" BABIP is sometimes sustainable depending upon a batter's speed, LD%, GB%, and other components that affect BABIP. I didn't get into the components (not that I would even know where to find them) because no one has ever had a .410 BABIP for a career.<br /><br />Here is an article showing single season BABIPs above .400: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/11061<br /><br />None of the seasons with BABIPs higher than Souza's have occurred since 1930. <br /><br />I'm fairly certain that there is nothing in Souza's batted ball profile to suggest he can sustain a .410 BABIP. I'm also fairly certain that Souza is not a true talent .365 BABIP guy (that being Mike Trout's BABIP - the career BABIP leader since WWII).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77587433222328973102014-07-14T12:05:51.452-07:002014-07-14T12:05:51.452-07:00Souza's BABIP may be based on high line drive ...Souza's BABIP may be based on high line drive %. When I saw him play, he was absolutely ripping what he hit. Is there anywhere that has GB/FB/LD rates for minor leaguers? If his BABIP comes from making solid contact, it wouldn't be entirely luck-driven and, though some dropoff should be expected, could be somewhat sustainable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4980947722852216012014-07-14T11:47:28.096-07:002014-07-14T11:47:28.096-07:00@Section 220 Averages are misleading. Bonds had fo...@Section 220 Averages are misleading. Bonds had four straight years with a BABIP between .408 and .536. Still doesn't change the fact that having a high BABIP in and of itself doesn't make it unsustainable. A high BABIP with a low LD% does, as does a high BABIP outside of career norms makes it likely unsustainable, but not necessarily. All of this is forgetting that there will be some regression for nearly every AAA BABIP in the big leagues. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65820677729045295702014-07-14T11:34:43.283-07:002014-07-14T11:34:43.283-07:00Ted Williams' career BABIP is .328. He did ha...Ted Williams' career BABIP is .328. He did have one year when it was .429, but his second best year was .378. Barry Bonds' career BABIP is .285. Yes, .410 is unsustainable. Section 220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51850931104492650962014-07-14T11:02:01.240-07:002014-07-14T11:02:01.240-07:00I'd agree that I don't see them trading La...I'd agree that I don't see them trading LaRoche. I think when Zim has time to get behind the throw it's not as bad ie. LF most throws. I don't think they will trade for anyone - Rizzo is an ex-scout and hates to lose prospects. If they do trade for someone I think it should be for a 2nd baseman. I don't think Dbacks are going anywhere next couple of years, so maybe they'd be willing to let go of Hill. He's an above average 2b. I don't see Utley, bc Phillies are in same division. Only way it happens is if they have fallen in love with Espinosa and figure they can fix his swing.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-574449585973661072014-07-14T10:55:42.958-07:002014-07-14T10:55:42.958-07:00@Donald/Jay - When do you envision this trade happ...@Donald/Jay - When do you envision this trade happening? You mention desperate teams like Reds who are waiting on Votto to return, so I assume you meant before this deadline.<br /><br />No way LaRoche gets traded this season. You don't trade away your tools when you're in the hunt, especially tied for 1st. If we deal at all, we deal prospects for big leaguers (or a positional switch like Espi/prospects for a 2b). We're not trading LaRocheBjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87511790357892183482014-07-14T10:49:18.689-07:002014-07-14T10:49:18.689-07:00@Jay -- you may have touched on the one wildcard t...@Jay -- you may have touched on the one wildcard to Rizzo's thought process. That throw from Zim was just awful. If Rizzo decides he just can't stay at 3b, maybe he tries to trade LaRoche to some desperate team (Reds?, Mariners?) for an A/AA pitching prcspect that can be added to the pot to get a 2B. The best replacement for LaRoche's bat who could play 2B is Utley. He might not accept the trade but who knows what kind of relationship he has with Frandsen and Werth. Maybe they could lure him over. <br /><br />But if Zim can't throw from 3rd, I don't think he can throw from LF, so 1b seems his more likely landing spot.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29010865041307508102014-07-14T10:48:23.039-07:002014-07-14T10:48:23.039-07:00In talking about Souza, very interesting article a...In talking about Souza, very interesting article about prospect rankings. This systems likes Goodwin best, but likes Souza better than Taylor, altough not by much. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/14/5862042/mlb-prospects-iso-bb-k-javier-baez-introduction JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24754124553303413992014-07-14T10:36:29.987-07:002014-07-14T10:36:29.987-07:00@Anon Unsustainable at the next level certainly, b...@Anon Unsustainable at the next level certainly, but just because a BABIP is high doesn't mean it's unsustainable. Look at the BABIP's that Bonds and Williams put up. LD% is probably a better indicator of unsustainable BABIP.<br /><br />@bjd I'm trying to keep them shorter so people will like me more. 11th best CFer by WAR doesn't mean 11th best CFer since it's out of 20 and a middle of the road CFer isn't worth a top flight pitching prospect. You wouldn't trade Giolito Leonys Martin. This is probably 90% of my beef with Span, with 10% being him hitting leadoff. It's not so much the player he is, it's the player they gave up to get him and how they diminished Harper's value by moving him off CF. JWLumleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13359661418378496780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-33547068755727289142014-07-14T09:47:31.601-07:002014-07-14T09:47:31.601-07:00I vote move Harper to CF and Zimmerman back to LF....I vote move Harper to CF and Zimmerman back to LF. Did anyone see that throw Zim made from deep at 3rd yesterday? He bent over with his hands on his knees afterward like his arm just fell off. I was worried he had re-injured his shoulder. Course next inning he hit a mammoth home run to CF. Still he should be in LF. Also, with his bat and his arm - Harper is a great CF.<br /><br />Why not go get a second baseman? I was thinking of Aaron Hill. The whole D-backs connection. Knows both Rizzo and MW. Plays good defense and a clutch guy. I'd trade Espinosa and Detwiler maybe? MW and Kirk Gibson are buddies - make it happen.<br /><br />Anyway, in my mind Zim needs to go to LF with whatever move they make.Jaynoreply@blogger.com