tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post6884021753962473215..comments2024-03-27T19:05:25.362-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: The failing fallacyHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8919958815866606862016-08-19T13:08:15.426-07:002016-08-19T13:08:15.426-07:00Harper your logic is soothing to the soul, keep it...Harper your logic is soothing to the soul, keep it coming!Dusty's Toothpickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10676402515363795870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87616115767323921502016-08-18T21:17:01.971-07:002016-08-18T21:17:01.971-07:00Booyah: I said Thornton was a pretty good LOOGY fo...Booyah: I said Thornton was a pretty good LOOGY for US. In both 2014 and 2015 Matt used him almost exclusively for left-handed batters in late game situations. San Diego used him differently. I realize, and said that his numbers were less than stellar this season, but I believe he could be very effective back in a Nats uni being used as Matt used him. I don't think he could possibly hurt us any worse than the current lefties we have in the bullpen (one of whom is now on the DL and in no position to hurt OR help).<br /><br />Thank you for your concern, but don't worry about me. I realize my posts often sound excessively critical, but I am just as happy when the Nats play good baseball or management does something creative and helpful as I am testy when they do stupid stuff or play like crud. When they do exceptionally well, you'll hear it from me. <br /><br />:-)Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64670901521805964972016-08-18T07:55:18.029-07:002016-08-18T07:55:18.029-07:00Booyah I guess my opinion is admittedly based more...Booyah I guess my opinion is admittedly based more on superstition than statistically probably outcomes. Regardless, Harper's piece was most excellent, and I should have led my comments with acknowledging those points first instead of taking the counter superstitious counter position. <br /><br />As for Rivero for Melancon, I agree with JC, I don't see how you don't do that trade. I for one am super glad that Papelbomb is gone, regardless of what a 'great teammate' he might be. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-73145135024941396862016-08-18T07:38:54.279-07:002016-08-18T07:38:54.279-07:00Booyah - well done. 100% in agreement there.
Kevi...Booyah - well done. 100% in agreement there.<br /><br />Kevin - "If only they hadn't traded away a young hard-throwing lefty"<br /><br />Two points: (1) they had to trade <i>something</i> to get Melancon. Unless you would rather have Papelbon still closing? and (2) For whatever reason, Rivero has <i>sucked</i> against LH batters this year: .324/.427/.432/.859 vs. lefties. Ouch. Just imagine how we would fry Rizzo if he had KEPT Rivero and Rivero got tattooed (again) by lefties in a crucial situation in the pennant race or playoffs.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87213750441020577542016-08-18T07:22:14.733-07:002016-08-18T07:22:14.733-07:00JE34, I completely agree. I actually caught mysel...JE34, I completely agree. I actually caught myself having a shi**y attitude with my kids yesterday because of the pounding the Nats were taking right before I went to pick them up from school. And then I'm like, oh right, it's just a game, and also, we're still cruising. Let's step back off the ledge.<br /><br />There are fans of probably 25 teams who have far more legitimate reasons to be worried about their team than we do. And really only fans of 1 team who have less reason.<br /><br />Froggy, I see your point, but disagree philosophically. The whole point of "calling it" is that there's still a mathematical doubt. If there wasn't, you're not calling it, you're just stating a fact.<br /><br />That being said, I'll bask in the fact that we're even able to have a conversation about whether we're calling it too early, instead of the conversations of past years about whether we can come back from 8 down, or which call-ups will be interesting to watch for future seasons.<br /><br />Anyway, I stand by the act of calling it. Not one single person in this comment section would have said in April that the Marlins were 9 games better than the Nats over a full 162 game season. I can't imagine why we would now think they could be 9 games better over 44.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20003950268681489342016-08-18T06:45:26.757-07:002016-08-18T06:45:26.757-07:00@Booyah - THAT...was awesome. I recognize the abs...@Booyah - THAT...was awesome. I recognize the absurdity of thinking that somehow, having us talk about "calling" the division will somehow affect the outcome... and how we tend to focus on what's wrong, even with a comfortable lead over the nearest division rivals who themselves have very serious problems. But alas, human nature. When we watch something every day, especially a game that is a collection of little failures, happily interrupted by bursts of awesomeness (like a Trea Turner triple, which is a weekly occurrence now?), we obsess over the bad. I remember in 2014, (IIRC) when the Nats clinched a trip to the postseason on a day they lost, I thought to myself, "Meh... that's kinda lame to be spraying champagne after losing." I then caught myself being crazy and said, "JE34, what is your major malfunction? We're in the playoffs, you idiot!" It's a constant battle. JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-46517021315213115262016-08-18T06:36:54.632-07:002016-08-18T06:36:54.632-07:00Booyah, I agree that it is not all doom and gloom,...Booyah, I agree that it is not all doom and gloom, but disagree somewhat that citing previous MLB meltdowns predicts the same fate upon the Nationals. I just think 'calling it' with 25% of the season remaining to be played is literally premature and lends itself just as validly to considering the possibility of an opposite outcome. It also is an arrogant distractor and somewhat disrespectful to the game IMO. <br /><br />The thing I love about this blog is how consistently Harper produces in depth analytics based opinion pieces that stimulate lively discussions from the largely loyal Nats fan base and it all remains passionate without devolving into ad hominem comments. It's very similar discusdiins to what I experience throughout the season with fellow season ticket holders at the park. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8794567478845982532016-08-18T06:21:06.754-07:002016-08-18T06:21:06.754-07:00I'm glad there are no more games in Coors Fiel...I'm glad there are no more games in Coors Field this year....yikes!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07359859089545299921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-5876031794240264152016-08-18T05:39:58.037-07:002016-08-18T05:39:58.037-07:00Man, I used to love reading the comments section o...Man, I used to love reading the comments section of this blog ALMOST as much as I liked reading the blog itself. But it's just way too doom-and-gloom old-school woe-is-us our-team-is-the-worst fan nonsense for me now.<br /><br />1. I love when people bring up the 2011 Braves/Red Sox collapses as though that proves the point. The reason we're still talking about it is because A) they were relatively recent, and B) they were so unbelievable that it proves exactly the point Harper is making. If that stuff happened all the time, we wouldn't still be talking about two collapses from six seasons ago. What about the dozens of playoff races that DIDN'T go that way since then?<br /><br />2. Sammy, say one positive thing. Just one. I'm worried about you.<br /><br />3. Kevin, now we're supposed to be upset that we got rid of a "young, hard-throwing lefty" in return for Melancon? I'll make that deal twice a day, every day. His stats were arguably some of the worst in the pen. But I get it. We're fans, and now that he's gone, he must've been the second-coming of Rivera. Because our team is the worst!<br /><br />4. Fries, "Kelley/Melancon/Belisle aren't quite as lights out as you'd want in a playoff scenario"? Then who would you like to have? Seriously? Barring some sort of historic fantasy baseball situation, where are we supposed to go? Are those the greatest three relievers in baseball? No, probably not. But Miller hasn't exactly been killing it since the trade. The Cubs got Chapman precisely because they didn't like what they had. The Royals pen hasn't exactly gotten them back into WS contention. Seriously, pick a 7-8-9 combo out there that you would trade whole-hog for our 7-8-9 combo in a playoff situation. Not saying ours is the best, but it's not even remotely close to being the worst. But again, it's "our" team, so it must be doom and gloom.<br /><br />5. Sammy (again), Thornton isn't a LOOGY. Actually, his stats this year were better against righties, and he faced more of them. Last year he was a little better against lefties, but certainly not into LOOGY territory. For the record, I really like Thornton. But the guy has a .848 OPS against him this year. That's over 100 points worse than Perez for the year, FYI, whom everyone wants to release. But he doesn't play here! <br /><br />Anyway, sorry for the rant. I had some time to kill. My point is, I've always liked to commenters here because we tend to stick to facts and dispassionate analysis and save the sky-is-falling nonsense for the Mets blogs. Especially when we're up by 8.5 games. But I might have to just start clicking away after reading the post. Yeesh.Booyah Suckah!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15889536631740406219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47943555799538987442016-08-17T19:27:32.193-07:002016-08-17T19:27:32.193-07:00@PJI
I agree with you about both Oliver and Zim. ...@PJI<br /><br />I agree with you about both Oliver and Zim. I like Oliver and think the throwback Lius Tiant style is cool, but you gotta have results and he ain't getting it done. BTW, Matt Thornton was released by the Padres a few days ago. I know he hasn't looked that good this year, but he was a pretty darn good LOOGY for us and Rizzo can pick him up cheap. If nothing else, sign him to a 10 day deal and see if he can get a guy out. Perez right now isn't even LOOGY material. He throws the ball and they hit the ball until Dusty comes to get him, then he does his little prance over the foul line like it's just a joke. It doesn't appear to bother him at all that he's just stunk up the joint again. <br /><br />But honestly, there is something really different about the entire bullpen now compared to early in the season. Those guys were darn near unhittable in May and June, and we were all doing backflips over Mike Maddux. Now the pitching, both starting and relief, is showing some serious red flags, and it's making me nervous.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36949545356774951602016-08-17T19:05:52.239-07:002016-08-17T19:05:52.239-07:00I also think fastball / power pitchers and Coors s...I also think fastball / power pitchers and Coors stadium don't mix well. (see Scherzer and Strasburg) As a batter you guess heater and it's going out of that place pronto. (see Werth hitting a 447 foot bomb onto the concourse in LF) You're better off putting your junk ball pitchers out there and playing for the contact out. But it's a moot point now as I think we are done with playing in Colorado for the season. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77980402703578926952016-08-17T18:24:20.511-07:002016-08-17T18:24:20.511-07:00Oliver Perez is a bad pitcher. He was booed out of...Oliver Perez is a bad pitcher. He was booed out of New York. Dusty Baker has way too much confidence in him. I rather see them use the right handed pitchers against lefty batters than let Perez pitch. No confidence in him. Worried Zim will come back and do absolutely nothing. Time to bag him and use DM at 1st base.PJIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10076326690924850841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-28721359352381150602016-08-17T17:48:16.947-07:002016-08-17T17:48:16.947-07:00I agree with JE34. I hate Colorado. The only oth...I agree with JE34. I hate Colorado. The only other stadium I that comes close is the band box in Cincinnati. Hopefully, they can get back on track against the Braves.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61867958939114621702016-08-17T15:02:53.529-07:002016-08-17T15:02:53.529-07:00@Froggy
...AND banning baseball in the thin air o...@Froggy<br /><br />...AND banning baseball in the thin air of Colorado. <br /><br />Last night I was trying to explain to my son about the difference the thin air makes. Using baseball-reference.com, I took random samples of home/away splits over the careers of various players over various lengths of time. Home/away splits in my random sampling were nothing to write home about... 10-20 points better at home, here and there. Not seriously scientific, but informative. Comparatively, the home/away splits for Rockies players are downright hilarious. <br /><br />Just for fun, I looked back at Larry Walker's career. Pretty consistent year to year as an Expo, then with his new home at Coors, he's 100+ points better at home, almost every year. In 1999, he hit .286 on the road, and a bonkers .461 at home! 1.410 OPS! Good gravy.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-81478239680888247802016-08-17T14:24:39.989-07:002016-08-17T14:24:39.989-07:00Calling it is purely an ego thing. People 'Ca...Calling it is purely an ego thing. People 'Call it' so they can say: 'I called it first...see, I was right'. Justified after the season is over of course. <br /><br />I remind folks of 2011 where the Braves had an 8.5 game lead in early Sep and the Red Sox had a 9 game lead on Labor Day weekend only to choke it away through epic September collapses and last day of the season losses. http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/09/11/5-worst-collapses-in-major-league-baseball-history/<br /><br />I agree with Robot, JE34 and Potomac Fan, one of the Anons, to name a few that we should NOT be talking about calling it and instead should be appeasing the baseball gods and focusing on the day to day shortfalls that need to be addressed. Oliver Perez, the rest of the pen minus Belisle and Melancon, the Revpinsosa offense hole, dead arms in the starting rotation, whether Ross will be the savior, does Roark end up with the Cy Young, will BRYCE come back, etc, etc.<br /><br />Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61806774700064276952016-08-17T14:16:52.091-07:002016-08-17T14:16:52.091-07:00Nothing is in the bag in August. Nothing. It is be...Nothing is in the bag in August. Nothing. It is beyond stupid to be talking about the post season at all at this point, much less talking about it as if it is a foregone conclusion. Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-14956999881279791422016-08-17T13:58:23.732-07:002016-08-17T13:58:23.732-07:00What mistake? That he'll never have 3 subpar s...What mistake? That he'll never have 3 subpar starts in a row? Man are you going to be disappointed in life.<br /><br />I know, I know, I shouldn't take the bait...mike knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19933486382983101572016-08-17T13:32:10.830-07:002016-08-17T13:32:10.830-07:00For maybe the first time since his debut, I was re...For maybe the first time since his debut, I was really starting to believe he might actually live up to all the crazy hype. Then this happens.<br /><br />I promise you, I'm never making that mistake again the rest of his career, ever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-25707998508263580742016-08-17T12:44:54.190-07:002016-08-17T12:44:54.190-07:00Hopefully with the roster expansion, Stras will ge...Hopefully with the roster expansion, Stras will get some time to get himself right. He's in the midst of his third straight crappy start. Ugh.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-54420245008238956522016-08-17T11:26:18.397-07:002016-08-17T11:26:18.397-07:00This is an absolutely superb article. A pleasure t...This is an absolutely superb article. A pleasure to read.Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-54697515351220228362016-08-17T09:52:50.000-07:002016-08-17T09:52:50.000-07:00Why are you misquoting me? I never said any of tho...Why are you misquoting me? I never said any of those things.ntr realDonaldTrumphttps://www.donaldjtrump.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19424599637841977042016-08-17T09:40:45.604-07:002016-08-17T09:40:45.604-07:00From SB Nation:
So here is a breakdown of the eli...From SB Nation:<br /><br />So here is a breakdown of the eligibility rules for playoff rosters. <br /><br />The first part is easy. Any player who is either <br />- on the 25 man major league roster, or<br />- on the disabled list (7, 15, or 60 day DL), or<br />- on the suspended list, or<br />- on bereavement leave, or<br />- on military active duty<br /><br />as of midnight on August 31st, just before major league rosters expand, is automatically eligible to be on the club’s post season roster. <br /><br />In addition, a club can replace any player who is injured at the time that playoff rosters are submitted. So, for every injured player, the club can add a player who was not on the major league roster, or any of the above eligibility lists at the end of August. <br /><br />In order to be eligible to be added in place of an injured player, one need not be on the 25 man roster, nor even the 40 man roster as of August 31. Any player in the organization as of August 31 can be used to replace an injured player, with permission from the commissioner’s office. <br />PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-2052061407938523872016-08-17T09:27:27.297-07:002016-08-17T09:27:27.297-07:00Only one thing about Perez and the roster expansio...Only one thing about Perez and the roster expansion.<br /><br />This helps if Perez is tired, overworked, dead armed, etc. But I am fairly certain that playoff rosters are limited to those who are on the roster before expansion. This stops a team from just replacing 25-man roster slots with someone having a hot September call up. <br /><br />Glover coming up now might be to see if they can swing with just Solis in must-have lefty matchups and have Glover/Kelley/Melancon for the 7-8-9th. <br /><br />The roster expansion does help Murphy, Werth and Ramos, though. They can get off their legs and let Goodwin, Difo, and Severino get some playing time and give them some needed rest.Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53056957834301421562016-08-17T09:25:25.395-07:002016-08-17T09:25:25.395-07:00I'm not too worried about making the playoffs,...I'm not too worried about making the playoffs, and honestly, my biggest worry is using guys that I don't consider likely to contribute because they have "experience". If Zimmerman's not being productive, then don't use him. Perez looks bad right now. If he's hurt, DL him. If he's done, then the nats need to find another LOOGY. (If only they hadn't traded away a young hard-throwing lefty) Is there a starter in the minors who they can get to be a LOOGY? <br /><br />What's the bench look like? Can Difo contribute? Drew? MAT is hitting better in AAA - maybe he's figured something out.<br /><br />Those are the things that worry me.Kevin Ruschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246278523767750179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-80715389382443811512016-08-17T09:23:05.871-07:002016-08-17T09:23:05.871-07:00Phillies - Mets 2007 is just entrenched in many of...Phillies - Mets 2007 is just entrenched in many of our heads I guess Dr Trea (formerly #werthquake) https://www.blogger.com/profile/07450504942328972974noreply@blogger.com