tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post7737068961293453002..comments2024-03-28T07:54:06.036-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Offensive Keyhole - Mike MorseHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9182208648002188142012-04-04T08:07:21.348-07:002012-04-04T08:07:21.348-07:00I told you not to worry? Doesn't sound like m...I told you not to worry? Doesn't sound like me....<br /><br />searches...<br /><br />searches...<br /><br />Nope don't see it. I do see a comment agreeing with you that Zimm's return to form could counteract the expected slight Morse regression. I'll stand by that. Of course what I'm saying here is that the expected slight regression might be underselling Morse's fall.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63418150915261364882012-04-04T07:57:55.780-07:002012-04-04T07:57:55.780-07:00I demand a refund. A couple of weeks ago, I said ...I demand a refund. A couple of weeks ago, I said I was concerned about Morse regressing. And you told me not to worry. <br />And now here you are, telling me that worries were if anything underestimating the potential fall. Not cool.Hoonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86317699373527007342012-04-04T06:25:38.831-07:002012-04-04T06:25:38.831-07:00DOnald - maybe but having Werth behind him for mos...DOnald - maybe but having Werth behind him for most of his good months didn't seem to have a negative effect. <br /><br />"you're assuming that pitchers will learn how to pitch him, but that he won't learn how to hit them."<br /><br />Yes, I am. Age has something to do with that. It's usually a back and forth kind of thing and I'm not sure he has time left in him for that. <br /><br />As for the actual impact - depends. All in all you're looking at a game, maybe two going from the .295 33 Morse to .275 25 Morse. On one hand that's just one game - but on the other this season one game might really matter (and a 1 1/2 game swing by one player is pretty big). I think the psychological impact may be bigger if the team isn't winning like fans thought they should and the reason is a struggling O. <br /><br />Anon - <br /> "His few MLB at bats mean his age shouldn't be a factor just yet actually, so that should be ignored." <br /><br />The body doesn't age according to MLB at bats. He is getting old, he has the same wear and tear any other 30 year old would have - just because he got it through injury and minor league games rather than major league ones doesn't mean it doesn't exist. <br /><br />"Add in his sheer size, which means any contact will guarantee him 25-30 home runs."<br /><br />Not necessarily true but I'll grant you that his power is more likely to stay high than his average. <br /><br />"Factor in added bats to the lineup giving him more protection --> should be able to hit at least .275 - .285" <br /><br />It's a possibility - really this comes down to how Werth and LaRoche perform. (or Bryce when he comes up) could help<br /><br />"If he can hit .280 and be healthy all year, he will EASILY hit 30 home runs."<br /><br />Easily? Not unless you think his power is going to get even better. If he hit .280 last year he hits 28-29 home runs. To easily clear 30 homers (33?) while hitting .280 he'd have to have 600 ABs. Thats not impossible, but it is a tall task for a cleanup hitter in the NL.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-16719021261638321942012-04-03T14:28:19.339-07:002012-04-03T14:28:19.339-07:00His few MLB at bats mean his age shouldn't be ...His few MLB at bats mean his age shouldn't be a factor just yet actually, so that should be ignored.<br /><br />Add in his sheer size, which means any contact will guarantee him 25-30 home runs.<br /><br />Factor in added bats to the lineup giving him more protection --> should be able to hit at least .275 - .285<br /><br />If he can hit .280 and be healthy all year, he will EASILY hit 30 home runs.<br /><br />Any worries are foolish.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-73130343486080443672012-04-03T12:55:25.209-07:002012-04-03T12:55:25.209-07:00I know I'm drinking the koolaid here, but it s...I know I'm drinking the koolaid here, but it seems like there could be two factors helping Morse on the plus side. One is that with better hitters following him than last year, pitchers won't necessarily have the luxury of throwing him balls. The second is a players ability to adjust. This is fuzzier, but you're assuming that pitchers will learn how to pitch him, but that he won't learn how to hit them. <br /><br />Also, in terms of a keyhole, if he performs as you expect, is that really going to have that big an impact? Last year it certainly would have, but he was carrying the offense for a while.Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-17466292994419385042012-04-03T12:25:53.857-07:002012-04-03T12:25:53.857-07:00Sorry - about that. I don't think anything ch...Sorry - about that. I don't think anything changes other than going from basically NO HOPE, to desperately little hope. There really aren't that many close to .300 and most of the seasons we see are one offs or two-offs from guys who spent most of their career hitting substantially lower averages or changed to more reasonable hitters. Galarraga and Soriano are two exceptions but Soriano did it mainly in his youth as a slightly different hitter and Galarraga benefitted immensely from Coors. I'm not sure if Morse comps well to either.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-3789391581738710472012-04-03T11:57:28.887-07:002012-04-03T11:57:28.887-07:00Gah - looking back I had triples=0 included in the...Gah - looking back I had triples=0 included in the subset. Ok rewrite time - thanks.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36939767699523007122012-04-03T11:17:04.699-07:002012-04-03T11:17:04.699-07:00I'm confused... Baseball Reference says there ...I'm confused... Baseball Reference says there are a bunch of guys with less than 40 walks and more than 125 strikeouts that have hit above or close to .300.<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/6o9tg5hcassnoreply@blogger.com