One run princes

8 out of the Nats last 12 games have been decided by one-run.  Another 2 by two runs. This remains not a bad team. It's a team that can hang. But it's not getting over the hump and the improvement in the offense by a couple of slow starters has simply gotten them here from "not close" 

What's up with Nats is lefties KILL them (hitting .307 / .392 / .525 for the season so far) and the relievers are trash.  How so? 

As a reliever 7.47 ERA, opponents hitting .291 / .403 / .472 

Late & Close?  .274 / .351 / .430 

The Nats pitchers get tired (5th Inning : 3.22 / .374 / .500) and the bullpen can't hold it (7th : .289 / .401 / .512, 8th : .349 / .414 / .481). 9th is a little better but overall a .305 / .403 / .865 line for innings 7-9 tell the tale. 

Yes, yes small sample and vagaries and whatever but this is getting ridiculous.  If everyone misses it's far more likely that you built a bad pen then everyone just happened to have a bad start. Yes, some of these guys are better than they show, but some should simply not be here. 

But today is the end of April so tomorrow we can do a full first month recap.  Not as "true" as the Memorial Day look at the team but a good start. Players have had time to work off bad weeks or come back down. Let's figure out a plan going forward tomorrow and see if they bother to follow it.

Monday Quickie - Well that was fun

After a dreary road trip where the Nats looked like they'd compete with the dregs they needed a pick me up and who better to give a team one than the Mets. Yes they had the best record in baseball but the Mets are still the Mets and they played like classic Mets.  A couple of late game meltdowns and the "stay in it" Nats good enough to take advantage. 

One game left in the series, finish it off.

A great former Nat is on his way home

Of course I mean Jesse Winker.  Who did you think?

The Mets come to town this weekend and in with them comes Juan Soto as well as the best record in baseball, a 5 game lead over Philly, and a 7 game winning streak following sweeps of the Cardinals and Phillies. Since the opening 3-game away set loss to the Astros the Mets have lost one series, amazingly to the Twins. Their pitching is great and the offense is doing enough.

At the plate we have to talk about Soto. He is starting slow, and by that he is only above average, an off month for him. He is walking a ton like always with solid power but his contact is a little off.  This has never been a problem for him so let's assume he gets that straightened out, just hopefully for you guys not this weekend. Soto isn't the problem though - none of the stars are. Alonso has been MVP-worthy and Lindor All-Star worthy. It's just what's around them that isn't working, Francisco Alvarez has been out, Baty and Vientos have been bad. Marte is old. Nimmo looks like an early career downslider. Winker is good but a platoon guy.

For the Mets though it comes down to pitching and here everything is working out.  David Peterson is as forgettable as his name but that just means you don't realize what a solid pitcher he's been for two of the last three seasons. Griffin Canning seems happy to be out of Anaheim. Clay Holems IS working as a starter, if only a 5 inning one it is a very effective 5 innings. Kodai Senga is pitching a bit over his head and Tylor Megill is having his best year every continuing the improvement from 2024. It doesn't seem like a lights out rotation but it was one that if everything worked out it could be 5 2/3 types and like I said everything is working out.

Same with the relief core where Edwin Diaz is the weak link.  Everyone brought in and everyone kept is hitting all their targets and then some.  It's one of THOSE starts. 

It'll be a good test for the Nats. Is the Nats relief pitching bad enough that it can't hold the Mets back from late season rallies?  Are the Nats bats good enough that they can score runs against a hot rotation? Weakness vs weakness, strength vs strength, we get an idea of how weak and how strong these things are this weekend.

Things just keep getting worse

 No, no. Just kidding. Maybe for the Orioles. 

Since we're on a lucky/unlucky kick let's see which Nats are due to see things turn around... in any direction. 

HIGH BABIP - (BA should get lower) 

No surprise that Keibert in on here though he's not super crazy high. It should also not surprise you to see Nathaniel Lowe here as well.  A career .260s hitter hitting .290 to start is likely getting some bounces. But what should surprise, shock, and dismay you that Paul DeJong is among the lucky ones. Yikes! Nice knowing you Paul! 

LOW BABIP (BA should get higher) 

The oft-mentioned Dylan Crews and the below expectations Luis Garcia both should see a rise in BA. Josh Bell may be cooked but he's not THIS cooked. 

HIGH HR/FB RATE (should see fewer homers) 

James Wood might be the best HR hitter in baseball by far. But if he's not, expect a few fewer over the fence.

LOW HR/FB RATE

Luis Garcia should get something over the fence soon. 

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

 Mitchell Parker is basically rolling straight 7s, lucky in all aspects. Jake Irvin is also getting fewer hits and letting in fewer runs than you'd expect. The highlights of the pen, Finnegan and what we've seen of Henry should be letting in more runs, though in neither case does this mean the guy should be bad.

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

As you can imagine Sims and Poche are getting unlucky and when you combine that with bad pitching you see horrendous results. Brad Lord and Jose Ferrer are more in line for having improvements that actually should make them usable.  Can you believe Gore could have a bit more luck? His BABIP suggests so and his other numbers are very regular. 

Expect Garcia to get right soon. Expect Paul DeJong to be gone. The starting pitching should get a bit worse and the bullpen should see some competing improvements and scale backs. However replacing Sims and Poche would likely improve it for no cost but Rizzo's pride.   Where they stand now in general (74/75 win team) seems very much what they are.

Mitchell Parker - ace?

 No. 

For all the talk yesterday in the comments about "Crews should be doing better by his fancy stats" (true!) Parker is the opposite. A .191 BABIP? 85% LOB? 2.8% HR/FB rate? 

These are all stats that sort of measure luck. There's skill involved to be sure, and we'll get to it but these also are pulling out luck.  Last year the lowest BABIP was .220, .250 being very low.  The highest LOB% was 83.6%, 79% being very high.  The lowest HR/FB rate was 6.3%, 9.0% being very low. That gives you an idea where things normally sit.  He's clearly abnormal and without a compelling reason to say "he's awesome now!" you say it's luck. But luck is magnified early in the season. Is he just normal and it's the vagaries of a handful of starts? Nah ah.  

BABIP - 5th luckiest

LOB% - 14th luckiest

HR/FB Rate -  5th luckiest

He's lucky among the lucky. His xFIP is 4.60. 

 He does induce soft contact and does not get many barrels. Guys don't square up on him well. But that doesn't account for all of this, or even most of it, and with all his walks (so many!) and so few strike-outs (so few!) this can't possibly continue.  

But as I often say early in the year though - he doesn't have to give this back.  He doesn't have to have a 7.00 ERA over the next 4 games to even it out.  Return to form means pitching like he's earned (mid 4.00s ERA) not cosmic balance. He's still a perfectly decent arm in the rotation, especially for this team. 

In other news Crews hit a homer bc that's what happens when I say bad things about a guy.  Ruiz keeps hitting. Wood keeps hitting for power. Good good. And they beat the Os and that makes me and you happy! 

Monday Quickie - Disappointment Vibes

The Nats went 4-6 for the road trip against the dregs of the National League. What does that tell us? Well, depends.  If you want to be completely honest - nothing - because no particular 10 game stretch in baseball tells you anything definitive. It's 1/16th of a season.  6%.  It's not telling and why we often use Memorial Day - or about 1/3rd of the way into the season as an actual "ok what is this team really like" point. 

BUT

It is long enough to get ideas. Ideas that you stick in your mind to see if the season continues to validate them and a 4-6 road stretch against the dregs of the NL gives you the idea that the Nats aren't too far ahead of the dregs. That this isn't a .500 team looking to surprise but a 70 win team looking to avoid the cellar in their division. The Nats aren't the worst team in baseball. There's simply no catching the embarrassment that is the White Sox or Rockies. But could they end up the 3rd worst team? Well I'd still put my money there on the A's. But 4th worst? Sure.

The main problem remains the pen with Lucas Sims, with his 15.2 ERA (sorry that's not fair. Only a 9.42 FIP and a 2.6 WHIP!) and Colin Poche (15.88 ERA but yes 5.50 FIP but oh no 3.2 WHIP!) still occupying spots as if trying to prove to the Nats decision makers they weren't wrong making these moves that even nobodies like me could see shouldn't be made.  

Fix that though and there is a lingering question about the offense, which in the last 8 games has scored 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 12!, 3, and 1 runs. The Nats starters are decent but they aren't made to win games where the Nats score 3 runs. We'll get to it tomorrow but the one thing they should do today is demote Crews. Dylan didn't knock the door down to get his major league shot. He simply performed competently enough in AA to get a look in AAA and performed competently enough there to get a cup of coffee to see if he's ready.  He's obviously not. This isn't an indictment on the Nats development, drafting, or Crews' skill.  Great players don't always catch on right away and good players often don't. There's no reason to believe he can't be productive in the majors, even this year. But he isn't that right now and they need to let him get his head on straight. This year is CLEARLY not about 2025 so don't force it.

Shinny to the IL

 Just since we were talking about him yesterday

  https://x.com/MarkZuckerman/status/1912876174654439920

What they needed

They needed a win. Obviously so, as I noted yesterday they were quickly sliding into "uh... what are we doing here guys" territory against some bad competition and if they don't want to BE the bad competition they needed to show something. 

They needed a good Jake Irvin performance. It has been a middling start to 2025 for Jake, who's main role is probably "be good enough to go 6+ innings so the bullpen can get some rest".  He hasn't been and it's mattered especially lacking a 5th starter (Brad Lord ain't it) and Trevor Williams scuffling a bit. The Nats rotation wasn't deep to start the year, now it needs everyone to do what they can do. Yesterday Irvin did just that. In control, lots of ground balls, some swing and miss stuff. Yeah the Pirates stink but as we've said many times - you gotta do it against the bad teams. 

They needed the bullpen not to blow it. They didn't. Jose Ferrer, probably the most "we're going to use this guy in the future" arm and Kyle Finnegan held down the 8th and 9th with one extra base-runner.  Exactly the break and performance the pen needed. 

So the Nats are now reset.  They are rolling out their best results pitcher so far in Mitchell Parker (though really that's more sequencing luck.  Still he has been good, just not under 2.00 ERA good) against Bailey Falter who is just a guy and a guy in 2025 off to a bad start. Win again, get a streak going and momentum to roll the next bad team. 

 

Speaking of no 5th starter - how's it looking in the high minors early on that front?  In AAA Shinnosuke has had a couple of good starts sandwiched around a terrible one.  It was the same team looking at him from 5 days earlier, for whatever you want to make of that. Andry Lara, an actual prospect (22+), has a similar early profile without the "re-seen" and with much fewer innings pitched. Given his tight leash I don't expect him up in 2025 and possibly could end up back in AA a league he handled but didn't dominate last year. That wouldn't be a knock against him though, just a statement of where he is in his development. He's good enough to want to take care of. Minor League Rule V pick-up Hyun-il Choi has been mediocre and oddly pitched just 2 innings last game, but I don't see any injury notes. Chase Solesky, a guy grabbed for org depth, seems to have a AA limit and is not doing well.  That leaves Andrew Alvarez, a 2021 Nats draftee and running a similar skillset as recent Nats call-ups. Re: Can't strike anyone out but doesn't get hit or give up homers.  A bit more wild than others but he might be first up.   The short of it though is - nothing really here. 

How about AA? Any older guys and/or guys doing real well? Jarlin Susana is the guy here with a couple of impressive starts.  He wasn't in AA last year though so the idea of jumping straight to the majors is a stretch given he threw 100 IP last year and that's his most ever. Maybe if he was dominating but he's a step or two from that. Really good, what you want to see as a prospect, but if you were hoping for help tomorrow, not there. 

I'd expect Lord to get another couple shots as they let the AAA guys get a couple more starts in themselves to really get a feel for how these guys are doing.  If it were today Alvarez would get the call but you have to believe they want to call Shinnosuke up and with only one bad start out of three, a couple more ok ones is probably all it takes to get him back in the show. 

Ok well you can lose to Skenes

This game isn't "have to have". Nothing in April will ever be that. But if the Nats want to come out of this road trip feeling good it's hard to imagine it without this win. Losing that they have to go 4-1 in the last five to salvage it. Certainly possible but when you start a road trip 1-4 and sit at 6-11 overall, 4-1 looks a little unlikely in general.

 Worse is just how bad the bullpen looks top to bottom. I understand the variability issue - you can make a good faith effort to build a pen and fail but this didn't feel like a good faith effort.  Especially when you are like "this guy isn't good. We aren't going to spend money on him... oh he's much cheaper. Well then it's ok he's not good" seemed like the way the Finnegan return went. It also doesn't bode well that Finnegan the only guy they were like "no we really are ok without you" is the current best arm (only good arm?) in the pen.  And we've talked about how Poche and Sims were kind of bad bets that showed poorly and yet here they are doing bad... 

sigh. 

Ok. Everyday in baseball is a new day. Get the win.

Monday Quickie - On boring target

Yeah to go 5-5 and tell us nothing they probably had to go 1-2 versus the best team in the bunch and it looks like that might be the Marlins. 

Friday looked to be a mirror-image of what we've seen. The Nats were held down for the start of the game before exploding late on the Marlins bullpen, while the Nats pen held it's own.  Hell, Lucas Sims got the win (maybe his last in the majors!). Saturday the Nats worked a lead off of the still returning to form Sandy Alcantara but in a disturbing development Trevor Williams couldn't hold on to it. While the Nats don't need Williams to be an ace, they do need Williams him to not be bad and he was bad. Given he started blah this isn't a particularly good sign.  But we'll worry about that in four days. Sunday was the more typical game but also featured the starter disappointing. Gore looked more like his 2024 self than 2025, which is perfectly ok and certainly should beat the Marlins but Jorge Lopez and Lucas Sims put the game well out of reach.

Ruiz keeps hitting. and Wood looked good, even when he didn't get a hit like Sunday he still walked three times and stole a base. 

Abrams got hurt and is out.  That means Rosario and DeJong at the same time and many Amed Rosario keeps up his decent start and DeJong has a little power run but more likely they anchor the bottom of the lineup in the "drag to the bottom of the sea" way. 

Ok on to the Pirates and no worse than a 2-2 split. 

In other news

Let's get a lay of the land in the majors after 2 weeks

NL East  - No one has pulled away as both the Mets and Phillies have been carried a bit by their pitching. The Phillies adding a bit of luck. The Marlins are a minor surprise but don't look to be too different from the Nats overall. The Braves are the true surprise with a horrendous start but have been .500 after that and are better than their record. They should catch the Marlins and Nats in the Spring but what does that gap do for catching the good teams?

NL Central - The Cubs have been legit good and threaten to run away and hide with the division given the Brewers are banging the wall both at the plate and on the mound, the Reds are a .500 team at best (great pitching bad hitting) and the Cardinals... well you can squint and see that they could be good but they have to prove it. The Pirates sadly remain the Pirates with no ownership support

NL West -  A stacked division where the Dodgers injuries might finally catch up with them.  Giants and Padres look like they have great staffs. The Diamondbacks are raking.  None of the top four teams are bad at anything.  In contrast the Rockies might be the worst team in baseball this year and in this division than might mean 50 wins. 

AL East - The Yankees bashed their way to fast start but have come down to Earth and it looks like a division full of 85 win teams. The Rays pitching might be enough to surprise in this situation. 

AL Central - The Tigers also got off the a fast start and look allright and in this division of misfits that's probably good enough.  The Guardians should hang around but mainly beacuse the Twins and Royals aren't very good.  Why is the White Sox pitching decent? Should be some good RP trade targets later in the year! 

AL West - The A's are terrible. the rest of the division shakes out to be 75 win teams but someone's got to end up on top and once again the Astros look like the one most likely to do it, sorry. If you want to bet on someone else, bet on the Rangers.  They can't hit this bad forever and Langford looks like Wood looks like.

The dregs (not the Nats!… maybe)

 The nats are in a stretch against the traditionally worst teams in the NL. 10 games vs the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies.  This will really set the tone for the start of the season. 8-2? Let’s go team that’s clearly better than the worst!  2-8?  Big uh-ohs. 

Now of course they are away and will go 5-5 and we’ll learn nothing but I’m pretty interested any way.  Especially in the Marlins series. The Pirates and Rockies are legit bad. The Marlins are not, or still least haven’t started so.  This could determine what sort of fight these teams are in for in the NL East.  Third? Last?  

Bullpen still stinks

The Nats in the off-season didn't do what we wanted them to. Still, after realizing they weren't going to make that big move, we assumed they'd help out a bullpen that looked pretty thin. It was an easy move to secure some improvement (or at least assure as best you can no movement backwards) for a group that was passable last year.  They did not. 

In 2024 the brought in Derek Law who had an better than expected 2023 and looked usable based on the past few years. They brought in Dylan Floro who had a WORSE than expected 2023 but fancy stats were good and historically he had been very solid. This also sort of describes Matt Barnes. And they brought in Jacob Barnes, recent historically bad and not good in 2023 but with fancy stats that suggested maybe something was there. You aren't going to hit on all! (Or maybe just avoid Barneses)

This year Jorge Lopez is sort of a cross between the Barnes. History is pretty hard to read but there are good things and last year was good. Lucas Sims is historically usable but looked worse last year. Colin Poche had some good years but the fancy stats see him more of a last guy int he pen.  

So there isn't a guy with the history of Floro. Poche is a worse bet Law. Lopez is a basically the bet you made on your two other guys in one pitcher.  Fewer guys. Worse bets. The fact you are sitting with a worse outcome isn't a surprise

This all would be acceptable if there were a stud set of arms they wanted to lead the way. There isn't. Last year they hoped Finnegan, Rainey and Harvey would be that. They dropped the nothing special Kyle Finnegan only to pick him back up on the cheap when no one else wanted him. Rainey never became anything and he's gone. Harvey had promise so they traded him and he's had a fast start in KC.  Guys they kept mostly aren't anything. Eduardo Salazar is just an arm.  Jackson Rutledge is a complete unknown with a total of 6 games in relief to go on. Jose Ferrer is he's young and lefty but more likely to be more like Salazar. 

If it wasn't for the emergence of Brad Lord there would be no bright spots to one of the worst pens in baseball and with Davey the type to lean on what works you start to worry about that, if he's even going to stay in the pen as long relief and not be worked into the rotation with Soroka down. 

 It's a fun week after a not so fun one. Abrams and Wood have had fast starts. Keibert as well. Gore looks good and the fancy stats aren't worried about Williams or Parker.  There are things to be excited about if you believe the ownership will finally buy in next year. But the excitement that could be happening this year probably won't and the lack of pen help will likely be a big reason. 

MacKenzie Gore steps up?

 MacKenzie Gore was always supposed to be a star but pitching prospects are extremely fickle. Factor in injuries and his development hasn't gone exactly as planned. Not that he hasn't been useful but if you said before 2020 that going into 2025 Gore's career stats would read 21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 4.14 FIP and 1.422 WHIP you'd be disappointed.  Those are the numbers of a #3 type starter, not an ace. 

 At the major league level, and really at all levels since 2020, his problem has been two-fold. Too hittable and too many walks.  So while his homer rate has generally been ok and his strikeout rate generally good, guys would get on and guys would get around. His innings would be long and he just couldn't last long into games. He was just another pitcher. 

This year so far we've seen a different Gore.  His control is much better. He's getting ahead of batters (first pitch strike percentage is way up, getting more called strikes, and throwing in the zone more. This is giving him control of the at bats and keeping his walks down but strikeouts high. He appears to be leaning more into his curve ball, arguably his best pitch taking a bit off his fastball and a lot off his slider to make it match his change up more in speed. This is something he did in 2023 but got away from in 2024.  The difference from 2023 though is he was a fastball pitcher who used a slider and curve to mix things up. Last year he really bumped up the change and now he's a four pitch pitcher, where the slider and change hit about the same speed keeping hitters more off-balance. 

Pitching can be about learning what works and doesn't. And what works in the minors isn't necessarily what works in the majors. He could throw that speedball by them and then use a hammer curve and later the solid slider to finish hitters off in high school and low minors. But major league hitters weren't as easily beat. His fastball doesn't quite pop enough to rely on it to beat a hitter (see Ohtani last night) and his slider could be flat at times (see Ohtani last night). Since the curve could be fairly easily identified hitters could lay off that and handle Gore even with in general pretty good stuff. Locate the fastball though, lean more into a hard to hit curveball, make the slider able to be confused with a tumbling change-up, well you start to see what happens. 

I'm not sure this is something that will last. It hasn't been perfect as his start in Toronto was full of hits. And we've seen pitchers run through a couple good starts.  Hell, we've seen them run through a couple good months. But if you could spell out what you wanted to see from Gore early this is it. Honestly looking forward now to his next start to see if we can get more confirmation that he'pitching different and that it makes a difference.