Are we talking about this blog or the Nats? Hey yo!
After the nice run that ended with a sweep of Arizona the Nats have played, as we've gone over before, like you'd expect a 75 win team to play. Competitive enough that you would be surprised at them being swept in two straight series. Not good enough that you'd really expect them to win two straight series against better teams.
And there are a fair number of better teams. The dregs of the NL remain the dregs, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates playing their own game on how to not even try. The Nats are clearly better than that but only Atlanta stands below them and that's because the Braves are on one of the craziest runs of bad luck you'll ever see*. The Nats are not bad, but they are at least a half-step behind 3/4 of the rest of the National League, honestly a half-step behind 75% of baseball after you throw the not trying White Sox, Athletics, and new to the group Orioles, in there.
Outside of Alex Call no one is hot right now and when Wood is putting up a .095 / .174 / .095 line in the past couple weeks you know the offense is grinding to a halt.
I'll say I see 3 interesting things going on though
1) Gore is solidifying into that ace. We've brought it up occasionally but watching him last night the guy is in a zone and when he's there he's unhittable and that my friend, is an ace. For Nats fans that means a real fun 6 innings of baseball watching every 5 games. It also means OH MY GOD THEY NEED TO SIGN HIM LONG TERM. These type of guys don't come around often. You need these types. You can replace a bat somewhat but an arm? You have to gamble on them when you have the opportunity. I don't see a winning Nats team in 3 years without this guy
2) The bullpen, free of the terrible signings and decisions to open the year, is getting better. Yes, that's funny to after another bullpen loss but Ferrer gave up hits to Soto and Alonso - two of the better hitters in the game. It happens. Henry got beat in extras but the game is designed now for a run to score. In the past two weeks these guys have pitched much better and actually haven't been the main reason the Nats have lost anymore
3) Soroka threw a really good game. 7 Ks, 2 hits, no homers. The guy is here to be traded. If he can come around SP is such in need he will fetch something mildly interesting.
Sadly with the recent slide we're back to making our own stories from the team. There is one last chance for that to change though. 7 games against MIA and COL at home coming up. Say split the next two vs the Mets and go 6-1 in those 7 and end up 36-38 into the West Coast swing? One last run at trying to be interesting? Do you have it in you boys?
*they recently lost 5 1-run games in a row and have lost their last 12 1 or 2 run games.
At what point do the Nats consider trading Gore and Abrams. The problem with not spending money this past offseason is that they only have two seasons of Gore and three seasons of Abrams left.
ReplyDeleteBefore everyone goes crazy, Gore is at the same point in his team control as Soto was when they traded him. If they are going to trade Gore rather than just let him walk, then they would have to trade him in July of 2026.
Personally, I'd like to see them sign both of them, especially Gore, to long term contracts. At this point, I just don't see that happening between Mark Lerner and Scott Boras.
Rule of thumb is if they want something good back they have to trade him with a full year remaining on the contract, so yes next summer.
DeleteWe just have to see if the Lerners are ever going to spend again. If they do, then there are the foundations of a good run. Wood and Gore are Boras guys, so you can forget about extending them. Maybe Wood wants to stick around, who knows. Anyway, if the Lerners are going to keep a $100M payroll, forget it. Might as well follow the Phillies and get it over with. That's where all the good Nats wind up anyway.
ReplyDeleteThey extended Strasburg! Boras will tell them to go to FA bc that's where they'll get the most money (he's right) but It's all up to what these guys want.
DeleteTrouble is that it’s not really up to the Nats to sign Gore and/or Abrams long term. It’s up to the player and his agent. Probably safe to say that for most players it’s money, winning, and comfort, in that order. Is Gore happy here in DC? We don’t know. Probably doesn’t like losing half the games he starts because we can’t hit. Can we we pay him? We should, but haven’t seen evidence of that since 2020 when we re-signed Stras. Are we winning? God no. Can we win in the future? That’s a gamble on the player’s part if he chooses to stay here. In DC, with the Lerner’s looking to sell a couple years ago, a history of letting homegrown talent walk out the door, and a still in the midst of long rebuild… there’s just too much uncertainty here. On top of all that, DC is a mid-market sports city and not rich with tradition and history in terms of the baseball franchise.
ReplyDeleteTbh, if it were me, I’d pick the other 75% of the league that is both better performing and can pay me competitive dollars. But thankfully I’m a fan and I’m loyal to the team… wherever they are in the standings.
Guys do like where they feel comfortable and it's clear Gore (and Wood) are doing well here. Gore is about as close to home (NC) as he can get so if the Nats can show a little effort in getting better...
Delete"OH MY GOD THEY NEED TO SIGN HIM LONG TERM"
ReplyDeleteThis is just foolishness. As Kevin and PBN have pointed out, it's not solely up to the Nats. As the commercial used to go: "that's not how this works. That's not how ANY of this works!"
OTOH right now I do NOT trade Gore. Trading Soto (etc.) made sense because there wasn't a realistic scenario that had the team competitive while retaining the rights to Soto's services. Unlike the 2021 and 2022 teams that offloaded virtually every talented player that they could move, the Nats have a decent core with which to build a contender in 2026 and 2027. It's more analogous to when they retained Harper, Rendon, and Stras to make runs at the playoffs/WS.
OK yes OMG SIGN HIM is really OMG MAKE HIM WHAT WE ALL THINK IS A TOP OF MARKET OFFER AND SEE IF THAT'S ENOUGH TO KEEP HIM
Delete"What we all think is a top of the market offer" is doing a lot of lifting there. As an initial matter, it's quite possible that negotiations take place and it doesn't become public. Of course if we never hear about it we will simply assume that they never took place. Then you get to what is considered a "top of the market" offer. Top of the market based on free agent rates? That wouldn't consider buying out arb years, for example. A lot of Nats fans dismissed the Nats' $440M offer to Soto as a criminal insult designed to drive him away - while at the same time some baseball writers were surprised that the Nats went that high.
DeleteSecond: I think that the real question is whether a serious offer generates silence or a discussion/counteroffer. If the former, the team has to treat it as "player is going to free agency, period." That doesn't mean that the team trades the player. Where the team is in its competitive cycle is going to dictate that.
Although it's true that Boras tends to take his clients to free agency, the calculus is quite different for hitters vs. pitchers. I recall two big Boras clients signing extensions before free agency--Strasburg and Jared Weaver--both of whom are pitchers. If Gore wants to maximize dollars via a bidding war in free agency, he needs to make it to the bidding war first, which will require 2.5 more healthy seasons. "Betting on yourself" in terms of performance--which is what hitters do when they hold out till free agency--is fundamentally different from "betting on yourself" in terms of staying healthy, which a pitcher in Gore's situation must do. I've seen enough of Gore--the Nats need to pull out all the stops to try and extend him this offseason. And by "pull out all the stops," I mean offer him a contract at retail prices and not at a discount. You can't make him sign on the dotted line, but you can make it hard for him not to.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any hope of signing Wood to an extension. I, like Boras, would advise him to wait. He's going to get his bag, and the longer he waits, the larger it will be.
Would love for the Nationals to extend Gore's contract. But it can't have any early player opt outs like the Strasburg contract had. An early contract extension is a give and take on both parties. The players takes security and the pay raise now, but they give up the ability to have free market bidding until the time the new contract is up.
ReplyDeleteHave the Nationals ever offered a fair free market offer on an early contract extension? They are so inclined to play the low ball game that their offers tend to be discarded and not taken seriously.
Right. You can’t make someone sign a laughable offer. It’s a lot harder to reject an offer approximating market value. The Lerners seem to use Boras as an excuse to be cheap.
ReplyDeleteI am a little surprised at the comments on Wood, Boras notwithstanding. At his age, he could sign a 10 year $180m/$200m/$220m contract, and still be a free agent at 32 for another massive payday. I would think it would actually be easier to do a deal with Wood in the vein of Acuna, Corbin Carroll, Jackson Chourio, Bobby Witt, etc. than doing an extension with Gore. Breaking through this early gives you a chance to secure that generational money sooner for security and then if you stay healthy boost your career earnings into the stratosphere with the second contract.
ReplyDeleteIf I was Wood's agent, here would be my simple response: Acuna and Soto both debuted during the same year--Acuna at age 20 and Soto at age 19. Acuna won rookie of the year and an MVP, and Soto has done neither. Acuna signed an extension for $100M. Soto waited until free agency and signed for $765M. Who do you want to be?
DeleteI don't think there's a contract the Nats could offer that would convince Wood not to wait. Moreover, hiring Scott Boras as your agent is not something that just happens--it's a choice. And within that choice is embedded a revealed preference to chase dollars. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see it.
Your overall point is probably right--a Wood contract is a long-shot---but I do not agree with your reasoning. From the beginning, there were stories about how Acuna was underpaid, with the implication that Atlanta took advantage. On the other hand, Soto is a total outlier. His deal and Ohtani's deal get discussed as comparable, but the net present value of the Soto contract is at least 50% greater.
DeleteMore pertinently, there have been several large extensions of would-be-stars since Acuna. The going rate for Wood is probably in the $200-300 million range, maybe higher. A reasonable person (even a Boras client) might decide that $250 million guaranteed today (and not affected by subsequent injury or diminished skills) is better than $500 million in 6+ years from now but only if he stays healthy and star-level productive.
We also can’t assume that he’s going to be the next Soto or Acuna just because he’s having a few great months. He wouldn’t be the first (remember downtown Dominic Brown? Philthies fans wouldn’t shut up about him for half a year)
DeleteThe point of the Acuna/Soto example is to illustrate what the polls are: Acuna is an example of a terrible extension and Soto is an example of free agency working out just about as well as it possibly can (I say "just about" because Soto finds himself playing for the New York Mets, a franchise that specializes in tripping over its own dick, year after year, decade after decade). Sure, Wood can negotiate a better extension that Acuna did; Wood is represented by Scott Boras, after all. But he would still be leaving money on the table, likely amounts measured in nine figures.
DeleteAs for getting the money now (which is good!) vs later (which is less good), the arbitration system makes it a lot easier to wait. Soto made >$20M during his later arbitration years.
Wood is likely not as good a player as Soto (though Wood's 149 WRC+ this year is not far off Soto's 157 mark for his career), and Wood is not going to shatter salary records because he broke in at an older age. Given Wood's performance so far, I think any offer that begins with a 2 is not something to be taken seriously.
The point of all of this: from a team-building perspective, focus your extension attention and dollars on players who are not Wood--like Gore and (if you believe in them) Abrams/Garcia. A Wood extension is just a dead end, IMO.
P.S. for the 2:02 PM comment "polls" is supposed to be "poles"
Delete@Harper - I'm finally on board. Fire Davey.
ReplyDeleteMe, too. Defending the coaches and criticizing the players at the same time is a no-no. Who's available to replace Davey?
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with changing too - sure doesn't look like they're making the whole more than the sun of it's parts, which is their whole job. But I sure hope whoever's next can. There's no Harper and Strasburg here. Wood and Gore are good, and I'd be delighted with the core if i thought they'd get help. But in 2011 they added Werth then Max. Now they have Bell and Trevor Williams. If getting burned by Harper,Strasburg, and Corbin makes the Lerners gun-shy, they MUST get out of the way and let someone else do it.
ReplyDeleteNow kind of a fast fade.
ReplyDelete