tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4369078180527362184..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: MaxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15119455440079924122016-05-15T15:55:12.355-07:002016-05-15T15:55:12.355-07:00Anyone know a good Mets blog? I want to see what ...Anyone know a good Mets blog? I want to see what the third place team's fans are talking about. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8570939401216137372016-05-14T09:26:14.094-07:002016-05-14T09:26:14.094-07:00Here's my favorite pitching stat this season s...Here's my favorite pitching stat this season so far: the guys with the fourth, sixth, eighth, and twelfth highest batting averages for the Nationals are starting pitchers. Scherzer, Ross, Strasburg, and Gio are batting a combined 14 of 57 for a .246 average. That's two points higher than the team average. If the rest of the lineup could hit as well as the pitchers, we'd be blowing everyone's boat right out of the water. Only Roark (0-10) is not hitting well. Still, even with his numbers the starters are hitting .209.Sammy Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286255593094532554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13569314924659222542016-05-13T19:16:04.460-07:002016-05-13T19:16:04.460-07:00I'll probably do a couple posts on a few hitte...I'll probably do a couple posts on a few hitters Mon/Tues going into Mets series. Ramos Rendon Werth Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-47429829152688913502016-05-13T14:10:06.010-07:002016-05-13T14:10:06.010-07:00Bx - second your request for a Ramos post...good c...Bx - second your request for a Ramos post...good call!Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00678357994045101892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37419094361432412552016-05-13T14:09:35.691-07:002016-05-13T14:09:35.691-07:00Bx - second your request for a Ramos post...good c...Bx - second your request for a Ramos post...good call!Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00678357994045101892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-59156441355299137382016-05-13T11:42:47.053-07:002016-05-13T11:42:47.053-07:00Mythra: yeah of course. I really recommend The Arm...Mythra: yeah of course. I really recommend The Arm. It's truly tremendous and also a fun quick read.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-38028579076073087882016-05-13T10:53:01.718-07:002016-05-13T10:53:01.718-07:00HARPER: Can we get a post on Wilson Ramos? There&#...HARPER: Can we get a post on Wilson Ramos? There's some decidedly compelling stuff happening here. I thought the Lasik surgery was baloney when I heard about it, but frankly, as we near the quarter poll, there is some extremely compelling evidence that this is a new hitter--or more specifically, a hitter closer to the 2013 Ramos, and not the one from the last two years. His K rate is almost cut IN HALF, and he has gone from literally never walking to...occasionally walking! (6% is not good but its not hilariously bad anymore). Of course his BABIP is high and he'll never maintain an average like this, but do I think his approach is qualitatively and fundamentally different this year? Um, yes I do. I've watched Ramos since he debuted. I have never in my life seen him spit on as many breaking stuff in the dirt as he has in the last week and a half. He still isn't lifting the ball as much as you'd like, but the K rate and the hugely slashed chase rate and swing and miss rate is real...as in, a stabilized non fluke stat over this amount of ABs. He's always been a rock solid defender and I think he could hit .270 this year with 15 homers. WE. WANT. A RAMOS. POST! (including....should we lock him up given the absolute dearth of compelling catching prospects in the pipeline and in major league baseball for that matter).BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-29421372543579839622016-05-13T09:54:54.264-07:002016-05-13T09:54:54.264-07:00@Bx: Good to see there is more science and medicin...@Bx: Good to see there is more science and medicine getting behind the study of arms and pitching. I'll have to check out the book you mentioned. I was definitely raised in the age against curves/sliders when young. I still managed to tear the rotator on my pitching arm a few weeks before walk-on tryouts freshman year in college. Pitching career officially done right then. <br /><br />Thanks again for the suggested reading. Headed to OBX for 2 weeks, might make for some good downtime reading.<br /><br />Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40096249652771452772016-05-13T08:22:16.257-07:002016-05-13T08:22:16.257-07:00@Anon - I'm pretty sure it was me. Never inten...@Anon - I'm pretty sure it was me. Never intended to drive him off, just wanted him to stop with the SEE I TOLD YOU SPAN SUCKS AND SOUZA IS AWESOMEBjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12049549633140210312016-05-13T07:02:58.884-07:002016-05-13T07:02:58.884-07:00What ever happened to JW Lumley? Last I remember w...What ever happened to JW Lumley? Last I remember were people calling him out on here and he got real pissed and hasn't posted since...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-68137386465664341212016-05-12T21:21:29.669-07:002016-05-12T21:21:29.669-07:00Mythra: that's actually a common misconception...Mythra: that's actually a common misconception, at least according to the most recent books and studies on arm injuries---generally fastballs put the most stress on the arm, not sliders etc. apparently this myth developed (again according to these books such as The Arm by Jeff Passan) because parents somehow decided that the way to prevent kids from hurting themselves is to not have them throw breaking pitches when they're young. The one exception supposedly is that a splitter is death on elbows because of what spreading fingers does to the tendons, and it's why the pitch has really gone out of style, at least in America.BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-25726084586717911282016-05-12T15:23:54.783-07:002016-05-12T15:23:54.783-07:00I'd only worry about pitch counts with pitcher...I'd only worry about pitch counts with pitchers who throw 25-30% or more breaking stuff, personally. The torque of a slider or curve on the elbow is what blows out ligaments and leads to TJs. Max was mostly throwing the fastball and setting up the slider later in counts. <br /><br />Then again, it's a lot of luck and genetics. Some guys like Nolan Ryan could throw a ton of pitches late into their careers and never needed TJ. Others, like Stras and ZNN needed it early in their careers.<br />Mythrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12640334476376047192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-45978030889252294132016-05-12T13:41:32.938-07:002016-05-12T13:41:32.938-07:00I was never nervous about Max, but he throws a lot...I was never nervous about Max, but he throws a lot of strikes even on 0 - 2 counts, so he will give up the occasional solo homer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-16890942683789421632016-05-12T12:58:58.178-07:002016-05-12T12:58:58.178-07:00On the pitch count topic, I used to get all hung u...On the pitch count topic, I used to get all hung up on pitch counts until I just realized they 're really just an approximation tool.<br /><br />By that I mean, if you look at the pitch count for a particular game, there are instances where you think to yourself "this shouldn't count." Intentional Walks are a good example. Those count toward your pitch count, but are really just soft-tosses to the catcher. By contrast, warm-up pitches before each inning are NOT counted toward the overall pitch count, but pitchers probably put more effort into those than into the intentional walk pitches.<br /><br />So I wouldn't put too much stock in seeing that a certain pitcher made it up to 120 pitches on a given game. Rather, the reason 100 has started to become the "magic number" is because of the retro-active analysis that teams are doing. It turns out if your pitcher regularly averages more than 100 pitchers (significant overage, like 110+ on average) then they are increasingly susceptible to injuries. The difference between averaging 90 pitches and averaging 100 pitches is not nearly as drastic, or else 90 would be the magic number.Bjd1207https://www.blogger.com/profile/08595153543505790679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52744602600525130782016-05-12T12:27:54.935-07:002016-05-12T12:27:54.935-07:00My concern about Scherzer's count had somethin...My concern about Scherzer's count had something to do with a nagging half-memory of him getting leaned on heavily for long outings during the early - mid season last year, then hitting a pretty bad rough patch.<br /><br />Of course, he has started this year in a fairly rough patch despite coming off 6 months' rest...so...who knows.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00678357994045101892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-76672649233934161122016-05-12T12:06:13.194-07:002016-05-12T12:06:13.194-07:00Thanks for the thoughts Harper and JC. I think it...Thanks for the thoughts Harper and JC. I think it's fair to say we don't know how pitch counts affect an individual pitcher or staff. And it's fair to worry about pitchers' health just because. My concern led me to look at some stats, and I discovered the Nats appear to be a fairly extreme outlier when it comes to pitches thrown. We have 3 pitchers who have thrown more pitches than has the most-worked pitcher of 14 other teams. If you look at the team with the best ERA, the Cubs, you see that they have Lester averaging 101.1 pitches per game, Arrieta 99.7, Lackey 97.4, Hammel 90.5, and Hendrick 87.7. Again, a pretty stark difference from the Nats having all five pitchers averaging more than 99 and three over 101. I think being an outlier among 30 teams (25?) playing the same game with the same goal says something but maybe it has nothing to do with health.<br /><br />The Nats are also outliers in that the have 4 guys in the top 30 in ERA- (none of whom had 20 Ks last night), which works for me.Dmitri Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02086802838823495057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83810922564678159822016-05-12T11:43:32.468-07:002016-05-12T11:43:32.468-07:00"I was trying to describe the strategy/drama ..."I was trying to describe the strategy/drama of great pitching."<br /><br />I always describe it as a slow burn, or the constant tension and release of good jazz improv. <br /><br />It's interesting because a common complaint about baseball is that there's so much downtime, but to me, the periods of "inaction" are some of the most intense and engrossing aspects of the game.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00678357994045101892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72422314325245359062016-05-12T11:40:25.929-07:002016-05-12T11:40:25.929-07:00John C. - Interesting how pitch counts are current...John C. - Interesting how pitch counts are currently appraised. (There is slowly emerging, on the other hand, a school that argues that there is currently an unwarranted fretting over pitch counts.)<br /><br />Dusty's "Death-To-Starting-Pitchers" reputation in some quarters can probably be attributed to the demise of Mark Prior following his 2003 workload. Prior was 22, worked 211 innings, and the Cubs were chasing a championship. That year, Prior averaged 113 pitches during the season; 126 in September; and 120 in the postseason. (The Marlins took them in 7 in the NLCS.)<br /><br />But it could be argued the Prior example was an anomaly.<br /><br />For one thing, Dusty didn't usually manage young--22-ish--starters. His staffs--until Cincinnati--were usually veterans or young veterans. But when he did have youngsters, he usually pushed them only as far they showed they could go. That 2003 staff featured a 22-year-old Carlos Zambrano. And the five years Dusty managed him were the only seasons Zambrano threw over 200 innings per season. Yet Zambrano had a very decent career and no arm trouble in Chicago.<br /><br />In Cincinnati, in 2008, Dusty had a young Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Matt Latos among others. By 2012--the year they lost to the Giants in the post-season--he'd gradually increased their workload until 4 of his starters threw over 200 innings. (Leake pitched 179 innings.)<br /><br />All of this is to say that Dusty knows enough to watch out for young Mr. Ross. (Of course if the Nats are driving hard for the pennant, we might be having a different conversation.)<br /><br /> SMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15093752235123247442016-05-12T11:27:33.302-07:002016-05-12T11:27:33.302-07:00JC - Crazy thing about 2012. it hadn't happene...JC - Crazy thing about 2012. it hadn't happened since 2006 then arguably three teams in same league had "perfect rotations" in 2012. The 2012 Giants did it. The two non-rotation starts were to get the rotation back in line after a DH and to rest everyone and set up the rotation for the post-season after clinching. And the Nats 2012 team basically did it. All missed starts were not because of current injuries. Assuming Stras wasn't shutdown and Rizzo wasn't in stupid love with Wang every other start was a DH or a late season rest day. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86661785729306973022016-05-12T11:16:46.628-07:002016-05-12T11:16:46.628-07:00The way max was dealing I thought for sure he woul...The way max was dealing I thought for sure he would get 21, but maybe that's just me being gluttonous.<br /><br />Such a joy to watch, all pitches super crispy, commanded fabulously, in control the whole game (minus one mistake). <br /><br />I was talking to some sports fans who don't like baseball the other day and I was trying to describe the strategy/drama of great pitching. Shoulda just told them to watch max lol.<br />I know I really fell in love with baseball when I started being able to appreciate pitching.<br /><br />I think baseball prolly has a bit of a learning curve as a fan because at first it just looks like the pitcher is throwing. Bryceroninoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13487686599164779402016-05-12T09:55:27.687-07:002016-05-12T09:55:27.687-07:00It's funny - we used to only notice pitch coun...It's funny - we used to only notice pitch counts when they were truly nuts, like in the 130-150 range. Then 120, then 100 became the magic number. <br /><br />Although Dusty leaned on pitchers <i>hard</i> in the early aughts when he was with the Cubs, he's changed a lot since then. With the Cubs he averaged over 20 games where he had the starter go 120+ pitches, topping out with 29 in both 2001 and 2004. After that his rate dropped precipitously; his last two years with the Reds combined he only did it five times. He's only gone 120 with one Nats starter - Roark - who went 121 in his 15 K game against the Twins. There have been two other games where pitchers went past 115 - Strasburg once and Scherzer once. Mostly the pitch averages have been robust because the starters have been really, really good. If you track the pitcher numbers it's clear that they tend to yank pitchers right around 100 pitches. I have no reason to believe that they are an outlier in this area, nor that they are taking unusual risks.<br /><br />So, when should we worry? Well, you should worry about pitcher health all the time anyway - it's not something that the human body is really designed to do at that level. Pitchers get hurt. It's rare that a staff has only five starters stay healthy and make all of their starts. The last team that I'm aware of that did this was the 2012 Reds. Managed, of course, by Dusty Baker. Given the Nationals' organizational ethos of taking care of their pitchers, I'm sure that the usage is being very closely monitored and that Baker is in regular communication with Maddox and with Rizzo and the team folks,John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-89761569192228437352016-05-12T09:48:56.287-07:002016-05-12T09:48:56.287-07:00Is there anything to the perception that Max is a ...Is there anything to the perception that Max is a hot and cold pitcher? Last year he put together some amazing starts, and there were also ones where he didn't pitch well at all (at home vs. the Reds, for example). This year feels like a similar pattern. Obviously all starting pitchers go through ups and downs throughout the season, but Max's ups and downs feel more pronounced.G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64866494577903031492016-05-12T09:40:46.098-07:002016-05-12T09:40:46.098-07:00MAKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKX!MAKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKX!Zimmerman11https://www.blogger.com/profile/14524103974207323535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-28969357970964575702016-05-12T09:27:43.652-07:002016-05-12T09:27:43.652-07:00Bx - well part of the reason you never see that is...Bx - well part of the reason you never see that is because guys that get hit like that don't get to pitch full seasons. It's a testament to Max's other talents that his ERA isn't like 6.50 right now. <br /><br />I agree - it will go down but it'll probably end up in the 12% range, I wouldn't even be surprised if it settles in higher - around 15%. If Max can keep doing OK giving up the occasional homer then there's less impetus to get rid of them. <br /><br />D-Young - when we start to see effects, I guess. Pitch counts aren't the end all be all and are going to effect everyone differently. I worry most about Ross (I like guys <=23 kept lower) and Stras (past injury). For Max and Gio (and Roark) I say let it fly. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15496534344788215762016-05-12T09:19:06.625-07:002016-05-12T09:19:06.625-07:00More like this, Harper:
MaKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKxMore like this, Harper:<br /><br />MaKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKxChas Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306056671418831755noreply@blogger.com