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H...New to this blog & really enjoy reading it!<br /><br />Honestly, I have a hard time seeing us catching anyone right now. The last 10 days have been like a flashback to 2009. St Louis or Pittsburgh will have the fist wild card. So we have to make up what, 7.5 games on the Reds? The Reds are a .550 team as of today; their remaining schedule is not necessarily easy (10 vs. St Louis, 6 vs. Pittsburgh, a few VS. LA, Oakland, Arizona). So it's possible. But our remaining sched is only marginally conducive to making a run. 9 vs Atlanta (6 at home, 3 away), 3 at St Louis. Lots of games against the Mets and Marlins. So -- I am not ready to throw in the towel yet, but I feel like the end isn't more than 2 weeks or so from now.<br /><br /> Christopher Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72230810983839395852013-08-01T11:49:37.859-07:002013-08-01T11:49:37.859-07:00"Yes a big problem going into next year is th..."Yes a big problem going into next year is the "I don't know where the problem is" It's a lot of little things. That's harder to address than one big one, like if Espy was still out there hitting .100. "<br /><br />4 spots are below league average in hitting: CF, C, 2nd and pitcher. LaRoche is better than the average NL player batting(including bench/pitchers) but is the worst first baseman. <br /><br />Desi, Bryce, Werth, Zim are nearer the top but not at the top. So essentially your line-up is below average or just bad this year. Your best players are at the very good, occasionally great but not elite level. <br /><br />Rizzo bet that Span would rebound, ALR continue at near career highs, Espi rebound. None of that happened. Might see some improvement next year but not enough unless Harper, espi/Rendon bounce back, Zimm gets his pop back and Ramos is healthy. A better bench helps a lot next year but you still have big problems at 2nd, first, CF and hoping Ramos can play 2/3 days.Hoonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37660093482852232842013-08-01T11:11:25.947-07:002013-08-01T11:11:25.947-07:00Chaz R - I actually like the WC berth a little bet...Chaz R - I actually like the WC berth a little better, b/c I think the D-backs are not very good, so it's catching up to the Reds who have to fight through 16 games vs Cardinals & Pirates, which makes it unlikely they could match a run if the Nats make it. Still though not a good bet. Check out Z11's playoff odds. <br /><br />z11 - so you're saying bust. at least Davey was honest. <br /><br />Donald - well if you ask me I was writing them off at the end of June when they failed to make a move on the Braves then. This isn't about realistic hope any more. It's about ANY hope, just something to hang a hat on for another week or so. Make the slog to season's end as short as possible. <br /><br />MT - Fielding stats can be fickle on an annual basis. Fangraphs combined stats has him being pretty good but a lot of that is some nice arm outcomes and better sure handedness. Really what you want is range and that's dipped. But like I said you can't really judge on even one whole season. Trend over time didn't suggest this so I'd guess blip rather than something concerning. <br /><br />Froggy - Impossible? depends on where we are entering that game. 12 out and they win 2 of 3? so that's 13 games out with 6 head to head that you must sweep and 7 others to make up in 42 games (milwaukee series now gone). I'd have to say yes. <br /><br />8 out so the Nats are 9 out exiting it.... I wouldn't say impossible but I'd call the race. <br /><br />So I guess yes, 2 of 3 would do it for me unless the Braves lose the next 4 and Nats win the next 3 going into it. <br /><br />C&S - No one. It took pretty much nothing going right to get here. These seasons happen, usually 1 or 2 a year, but you never think it's going to be you. <br /><br />I think the truth about Bryce is that he's just not a good fielder. Athletic with an arm, yes. But how many athletic kids in your HS were made catchers? I think he'll hold up ok in the OF for a decade or so on pure athleticism but will spend the back end of his career at first. <br /><br />Anon - noted. I don't do much of a grammar check. <br /><br />Kenny B - I get you. The Nats have been bad pretty much all year. The last time they played and you thought "Hey this could be a good team" would probably be the early May stretch where they won the last 2 in ATL, 2 out of 3 in PIT, then 2 vs DET. <br /><br />Yes a big problem going into next year is the "I don't know where the problem is" It's a lot of little things. That's harder to address than one big one, like if Espy was still out there hitting .100. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52820176410200905512013-08-01T10:47:18.223-07:002013-08-01T10:47:18.223-07:00I don't see any reason to hold out hope that t...I don't see any reason to hold out hope that this team even makes the playoffs, much less wins the division. The only argument I see in favor of those positions is mathematical possibility. That possibility hinges on a large set of things happening, none of which have happened all season long.<br /><br />It's been nothing but bleak since at least June. I personally haven't felt like this team was any good since April. Never more than a couple wins in a row, frequently losing in unwatchable blowouts, errors, errors, errors, managing mistakes, pitching inconsistency in both starters and bullpen, injuries, offensive underperformance of career sats from virtually every single player (including pitchers), baserunning mistakes. <br /><br />I'm sure many of these things weren't as bad as they look anecdotally to a non-statistician fan, but I've seen all of these things at various times and in various combinations to make for a season in which some phase of the game pretty much was always either terrible, or only barely good enough such that a fan felt like the shoe would drop at any moment.<br /><br />I don't even really know what's broken, and thus I don't pretend to know how to fix it. What I do know is that for me to maintain a decent disposition, I have to go back to perceiving the Nats as essentially a league-wide joke, such that seeing them lose in more spectacularly awful ways is part of the fan experience.<br /><br />/rantKenny B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01104648417209196641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-87501418860955052692013-08-01T09:55:31.995-07:002013-08-01T09:55:31.995-07:00"Affect" is the verb."Affect" is the verb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7441722574486205332013-08-01T09:48:36.924-07:002013-08-01T09:48:36.924-07:00Did anyone (other than the idiots who for no bette...Did anyone (other than the idiots who for no better reason than "because they never won anything before") see this coming?<br /><br />I guess I will hold off on the second part to this comment until the end of the braves series, assuming it will still apply.<br /><br />BTW speaking of Bryce and of defensive metrics, i saw Bryce is a negative .5 WAR defender this year according to baseball reference. Yes he was around a 1.5+ WAR in center last year. I really think its partly attributed to his injuries this year, and maybe being more comfortable in CF. Me thinks Rizzo should move Harp to CF for next year and acquire Choo or Hart via FA.Dr Trea (formerly #werthquake) https://www.blogger.com/profile/07450504942328972974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63529465130885780302013-08-01T09:32:23.897-07:002013-08-01T09:32:23.897-07:00So does the reverse analysis also mean the Braves ...So does the reverse analysis also mean the Braves only need to win 2 games against us in the next series to make it almost impossible for us to catch them? <br /><br />The remainder if the season needs to focus on just playing good baseball one inning at a time. <br /><br />Gentlemeb, You are all professionals. Each guy just do your job perfectly as possible and don't worry about the other guy. <br /><br />Focus boys!Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-82403865381962655792013-08-01T09:20:49.558-07:002013-08-01T09:20:49.558-07:00Harper. Just pulled this of SI's power ranking...Harper. Just pulled this of SI's power rankings. Any validity to their numbers? <br /><br />"After a promising start, Denard Span has cooled off badly atop Washington's lineup -- and in centerfield. Over his last 63 games, his OBP has been a subpar .309, and for the season he has a Plus/Minus of 0, according to the Fielding Bible, meaning he's been no better than a replacement-level centerfielder despite saving 55 runs over the two previous seasons in Minnesota."<br /><br />I know the bat has been bad (although as you pointed out when Washington made the trade, his bat was going to be bad and there is no reason why he should be considered a leadoff). But the glove also?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12599491633554776280noreply@blogger.com