tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4572517843920190521..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Let's look at this team! Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85785173652889781742021-04-22T14:22:58.166-07:002021-04-22T14:22:58.166-07:00Per FanGraphs, Harrison has already generated $3.5...Per FanGraphs, Harrison has already generated $3.5 million in value.<br /><br />Not bad for a guy on a 1 year, $1 million contract!G Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88172610884865576742021-04-22T10:17:58.238-07:002021-04-22T10:17:58.238-07:00Robot - I'll still take MAT having a 95-105 OP...Robot - I'll still take MAT having a 95-105 OPS+ year with KC in the end. But maybe I've turned into a Dusty type in my belief in him<br /><br />Anon @ 8:26 - you can check out the Anon comment at 9:17 but mostly I'd say anyone not mentioned is basically doing within expectations so far and the expectations aren't extremely high or low. If you want my feelings specifically <br />Castro - ok I might be worried about his homer power but he should hold at 2B. <br />Catchers - pretty good. I feel like Gomes is settling into a nice tiny bit above average hitter. I think he benefits mentally from being a clear 1. Avila will do whatever - can't expect much. <br />Pen - probably a little worse than expected so far but have gotten away with it. Very wild, K's aren't impressive on most, BABIP is low. I worry once it gets a little warmer. I think they could implode. <br /><br />Elchup - Bell is hitting it a bit better but I don't know. Maybe I'm too influenced by the initial start that I really didn't like. I will say I assume the Nats keep playing them and they both end up with better stats than this, but the hope of MUCH better... early on that's looking like a reach. <br /><br /><br /><br />Anon @ 9:17 - i wasn't really playing out the "what happens next" game but you got it down pretty well. part of the reason I lean toward eyeballs and quick looks is using these fancy numbers down to three decimals seems more authoritative than it is at this point - which is kind of "do the BBs and Ks jive with someone hitting like this". But still can get info here. <br /><br />I remember looking at all Soto's numbers the other day to see if anything came apparent as an injury issue and nothing did. (Stras on the other hand... ) So really I think he should be having his usual MVP type year and should click right into it when he gets back. Bell should have better stats - something around 100 OPS+ - but I think that would be a disappointment overall from a 1B. I also don't look at that discrepancy and think he has to get there. I'm more inclined to see it meet in the middle. For Stevenson - we're just going to have this argument until it's settled. I think he's a usable 4th OF bc of his D (esp on this team), I just don't see anything better than that.<br /><br />Pitching wise I'm more worried about Fedde than Ross. I think Ross will hang on around that 4/5 spot type, I'm not sure Fedde can.<br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-74504004561231316632021-04-22T09:17:02.694-07:002021-04-22T09:17:02.694-07:00Especially given the tiny sample sizes, I think th...Especially given the tiny sample sizes, I think the "expected" lines based on statcast exit velocity and launch angles can provide some really helpful additional context. Of course, you wouldn't trust only the expected stats and throw out the real results, but it's all something to keep an eye on. And since fangraphs now makes them readily accessible, here they are for hitters with 30 PAs:<br /><br />Harrison: .447 wOBA vs .404 xOBA<br />Soto: .372 vs .495<br />Zim: .362 vs .331<br />Trea: .381 vs .379<br />Schwarber: .246 vs .246<br />Stevenson: .274 vs .347<br />Robles: .289 vs .324<br />Bell: .255 vs .315<br />Castro: .279 vs .270<br />Gomes: .325 vs .396<br /><br />We have Soto's relative underperformance already explained by extreme bad luck and not even needing the shoulder injury as an excuse. We have Harrison getting lucky, but also playing really really well (the .404 would translate to a wRC in the 140s vs the 179 he has now). We have Trea earning his good results and Schwarber and Castro earning their bad ones.<br /><br />Zim is getting lucky and is likely actually just a bit better than the average bat. Robles is getting unlucky, so maybe that step back towards average is happening after all. Bell has deserved slightly below average results and not his absolutely horrible ones. Gomes is getting extremely unlucky (though not as much as Soto) and should be rocking a 140 wRC+ and not 102.<br /><br />Stevenson is getting as unlucky as Gomes and is barreling the ball well enough to have earned a wRC+ up around 120, instead of the 69 he has now. I'm still optimistic he becomes at least an excellent 4th outfielder. <br /><br />For pitchers, almost no one has more than 10 IP pitched but here are the ones that do plus the two relievers you called out, Harper.<br /><br />Max: 1.80 ERA vs 2.99 xERA<br />Hand: 0.00 vs 3.35<br />Rainey: 8.53 vs 9.78<br />Corbin: 10.95 vs 7.04<br />Fedde: 5.56 vs 4.85<br />Ross: 5.87 vs 4.65<br />Stras: 6.30 vs 6.91<br /><br />No real surprises. Max and Hand getting are getting lucky, but you knew that just from ERAs of 1.8 and 0.0. All of our bad results are earned. The one thing that is a little bit encouraging is that Fedde and Ross are pitching just badly and not so terribly that they should be DFAd immediately.<br /><br />So, we'll see how this all develops. Given the covid disruption and all the injuries 7-9 and a game and a half back doesn't feel that bad to me. This definitely isn't a great team, but we don't have to get THAT lucky to have another year of meaningful baseball. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-75781136343202354962021-04-22T08:39:22.834-07:002021-04-22T08:39:22.834-07:00It sure feels like they bet on one of either Bell ...It sure feels like they bet on one of either Bell or Schwarber lucking into being the best versions of themselves, and so far neither are. Bell at least seems like he's getting more wood on the ball in the last few games so maybe his timing is coming back. His swing is ugly though and I get the sense that he relies entirely on being a Very Large Dude for all of his power. 28 isn't even old for baseball but when you rely on physicality it only takes one thing being a little off to sap you of power.<br /><br />Schwarber is interesting because while I didn't follow him much, I thought of him as a Joey Gallo type, a husky dude exclusively swinging for the right field fence. Now it seems like he's trying (or at least willing) to be a more opportunistic hitter? Not sure how that's panning out for him, maybe if Bell gets it going in front of him a little more he'll feel comfortable swinging freely?elchupinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06626204697716387752noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53158332423776932612021-04-22T08:26:29.443-07:002021-04-22T08:26:29.443-07:00Harper, what about the others? How would you clas...Harper, what about the others? How would you classify Castro and the catchers and maybe we should look at the pen overall against expectations versus specific relievers so we can get a sense of the full squad.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-79996779208937558562021-04-22T07:57:26.510-07:002021-04-22T07:57:26.510-07:00OMG JOSH HARRISON IS ON TRACK TO HAVE 10 Ks ALL SE...OMG JOSH HARRISON IS ON TRACK TO HAVE 10 Ks ALL SEASON!!111!!1!<br /><br />Seriously, though, with the pitching disasters, the COVID, the general lack of offense, and the Soto injury, I completely missed what a bright spot Harrison has been.<br /><br />I'm happy to see some of the former Nats doing well. <br /><br />Michael K Taylor is back to doing his thing, I guess. He has essentially two outcomes during any plate appearance - dinger or strikeout. <br />Robotnoreply@blogger.com