tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post4986424918995148927..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Offseason Position Discussion : First BaseHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43016387567188578562017-11-03T05:22:26.911-07:002017-11-03T05:22:26.911-07:00Lind option declined. Nats now in the market for ...Lind option declined. Nats now in the market for another 1B/LF. There are plenty on the market.<br /><br />Angels spare Rizzo the temptation to go after J-Up. Angels apparently don't realize that they won't win anything unless they spend serious money to upgrade their rotation.<br /><br />One big question for the Nats is how much are they really going to have available to spend. I've seen estimates that put their baseline obligations for 2018, including projected arb numbers, in the $170-175M range. The luxury tax threshold is $197M. That leaves only $22-27M in wiggle room. That's really not much if people are thinking in terms of some real star-level additions, particularly when you consider that they'll probably spend $10M or so just filling out the bench and bullpen.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51345685789173624542017-11-02T12:29:07.934-07:002017-11-02T12:29:07.934-07:00I expect Rizzo to run with the plan of hoping Read...I expect Rizzo to run with the plan of hoping Read develops a bit more while Wieters just attempts to be mediocre. With such a strong lineup returning, it doesn't make sense to sell off young players for a position that normally bats 8th in the lineup anywayFriesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61810471145598483092017-11-02T11:20:09.440-07:002017-11-02T11:20:09.440-07:00Trade deadline requires sellers... the catcher mar...Trade deadline requires sellers... the catcher market looks <i>extremely</i> thin for half-year rentals in 2018 (Ramos! if Tampa is selling) and also for the 1.5-year guys up in 2019. If the Rays and Os are both contending, that's (arguably) the two best walk-year catchers off the market, offense wise (The Buffalo and Wellington Castillo).<br /><br />The market is so bad. They either: <br />(a) sit tight and <br /> (1) hope Severino or Read can hit big league stuff <br /> (2) hope a trading deadline opportunity floats into view<br /> (3) hope Wieters defies all expectations and hits well, plays D well<br /><br /> or <br /><br />(b) they do something more drastic, looking to sell high on MAT and others via trade, which is especially challenging in such a horrid market.<br /><br />So much hoping involved with path A. Since that's the likely path, I hope Martinez plays the crap out of the younger generation. Severino will at least give you defense.JE34noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-61693957589304346712017-11-02T08:44:07.033-07:002017-11-02T08:44:07.033-07:00Rizzo can and will surprise us. But generally, I ...Rizzo can and will surprise us. But generally, I don't see the need for the Nats to make any big trades in the off-season. This team, as it now stands, should be in good shape to make the playoffs. I think the trades will come at the trade deadline, when Rizzo can take into account any injuries that may create "must fix" situations. I also look for the Nats to get a catcher at the trade deadline, and maybe another starting pitcher. But I just don't see them getting a catcher, particularly on a multi-year contract, in the off-season.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53418760361279759822017-11-02T07:03:59.505-07:002017-11-02T07:03:59.505-07:00I can see trading Taylor, but not to make room for...I can see trading Taylor, but not to make room for JD Martinez. I don't think the Nats have the money for Martinez, and I think counting on Eaton and his reconstructed knee to play CF in 2018 might be a mistake. Even if it's not a mistake in its own right, pairing him with Martinez - who is a statue - probably is. <br /><br />My priority list: (1) starting pitcher. The Nats NEED SP innings; the pitcher they get doesn't NEED to be a #3 caliber guy for them to win the East, but a #3 caliber guy would be nice to have in the playoffs; (2) another high-end relief pitcher. We have a bunch of question marks behind Madson and Doolittle. We need more certainty there; (3) a better catcher or a plan to get one. Wieters stinks. In theory, this is the easiest area to improve because the Nats are starting out from such a low place. On the other hand, most catchers stink, and the Nats are almost certainly going to be on the hook for Wieters at $10.5 million. I think they're going to go with what they have here (Wieters, Severino, hoping Read hits in the minors).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-16570935181192158282017-11-02T05:40:23.181-07:002017-11-02T05:40:23.181-07:00OK, maybe the Nats keep a big payroll, but lets no...OK, maybe the Nats keep a big payroll, but lets not become giddy and think they are the Dodgers. Martinez is going to be getting a Cespedes contract. No way the Nats do that (see Cespedes contract) because in 2019 the rent is coming due on guys like Scherzer and they have several excellent OF prospects. The last thing they need is another OF. An argument can be made that Taylor should be traded so Robles can play.blovy8https://www.blogger.com/profile/06888192019412533415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-67871630427502692772017-11-02T04:43:18.101-07:002017-11-02T04:43:18.101-07:00I don't know that they need Martinez. I was j...I don't know that they need Martinez. I was just joking about the Boras connection. If anything, I could see Rizzo signing Upton bc he drafted him in Arizona. I think they need a #2 or #3 starter. I'd like some help in the bullpen and catcher. I'm not sure they will do any of that. The only constant in the offseason is that I never am able to predict what Rizzo will do. Trading for Fister, trading for Eaton, signing Scherzer, almost signing Fielder, possibly trading for Sale. I would not have predicted any of those moves or possible moves.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-50709541082477159412017-11-02T02:15:57.481-07:002017-11-02T02:15:57.481-07:00No trade clause means NO TRADE. He's not goin...No trade clause means NO TRADE. He's not going anywhere, so get used to it.<br /><br />And yes, we'd all love a better #3 starter. I hear Darvich is available on the free agent market. Oh, wait . . . as a playoff starter, he makes Gio look solid and confident.<br /><br />I wouldn't mind signing J. D. Martinez and trading Taylor as part of a deal for a pitcher.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-40024820027559549712017-11-02T02:06:12.903-07:002017-11-02T02:06:12.903-07:00See above comments I just left. But Scooped Runs S...See above comments I just left. But Scooped Runs Saved stat, Zim is below average. Also led NL in errors as first baseman. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-85021283836627798432017-11-02T02:05:25.277-07:002017-11-02T02:05:25.277-07:00Sorry. As I mentioned above, Zim is also below ave...Sorry. As I mentioned above, Zim is also below average at scoops. (17 of 30 in Scooped Runs Saved). Also led NL 1B in errors. To be clear this is not the Nats biggest problem, like finding a better mid rotation starter or a catcher. But don’t delude yourselves guys. Zim is a horrible defensive first baseman. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-59560243336705839202017-11-02T02:04:02.419-07:002017-11-02T02:04:02.419-07:00I just checked “Scooped Runs Saved.” Which is the ...I just checked “Scooped Runs Saved.” Which is the stat that measures the runs a first baseman saves by scooping low throws. Zim I’d below average but barely. Of 30 qualifying 1B, Zim is 17th, so at least this season he was no above average. Again....I will emphasize that scooped runs saved pales in comparison to Def Runs Saved. The scoops don’t make much difference in value. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69241140161887163102017-11-02T02:01:44.033-07:002017-11-02T02:01:44.033-07:00He also led the league in Errors by 1B. He also led the league in Errors by 1B. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37559671368806500982017-11-02T01:55:46.053-07:002017-11-02T01:55:46.053-07:00Fair. He’s very bad. He’s bad at every aspect. He ...Fair. He’s very bad. He’s bad at every aspect. He has bad range. He is worst in baseball (qualitatively and by the Numbers) at throwing to the lead base to cut down runners on bunts etc since he can’t throw. And no he’s not unusually good at scoops. But that’s only because nobody is unusually good at low throws. It’s a routine play in the major leagues. If you look at data, basically every 1B muffs like 3-5 low throws they fail to scoop per year. You don’t distinguish yourself with your scooping because everybody does it so easily. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-18236035775876642752017-11-02T01:52:51.998-07:002017-11-02T01:52:51.998-07:00To me, the Nats have superior top of rotation star...To me, the Nats have superior top of rotation starters than either of these teams. But they also have inferior mid rotation starters. Thus they need a SOLID no 3. Gios not that in the playoffs. <br />And then the other thing is they need a catcher BADLY. Wieters is not a championship level backstop. Once they fill those two holes, I don’t see big separation at all. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65621336221574166242017-11-02T01:50:55.512-07:002017-11-02T01:50:55.512-07:00One thing all these teams have that the Nats don’t...One thing all these teams have that the Nats don’t is a catcher who is solid behind the plate, frames well, and adds SOMETHING (doesn’t need to be a star but can’t be an automatic out). If Nats are serious, wieters Csnnot be their starter next year. Period. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64189219896433691082017-11-02T01:48:45.269-07:002017-11-02T01:48:45.269-07:00KW: plenty do. Rizzo, Goldshmidt, Bellinger, these...KW: plenty do. Rizzo, Goldshmidt, Bellinger, these guys are mobile (they literally steal bases sometimes) and cut down billions of singles in the 1B-2B hole. Don’t know if you were watching Game 7, but did you see play where Bellinger ranged like 20 feet to his right then made a bad feed to Darvish in 1st? And then another aspect that kills Zim is metrics is he cuts down like zero lead runners on grounders and bunts especially. With his throwing he doesn’t even try. The 3 guys I mentioned above as examples will gun down guys at 3B or 2B on a mediocre bunt. On a hot shot Zim can’t turn a DP. Anyway, with bad range and no throwing to lead base, the fact he can scoop bad throws just isn’t a different maker, since every first baseman can do it well. (As mentioned before, because fans mostly watch their own team, a scoop always looks like a good play, when in fact if you watched other teams, every 1B makes that play. It’s routine. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36984993633212314512017-11-02T01:43:10.263-07:002017-11-02T01:43:10.263-07:00See my comment below. Essentially every single sta...See my comment below. Essentially every single starting first baseman can scoop any throw. It’s not a distinguishing skill. If you are truly dreadful— as in, cannot be played at 1B at all like Lind— maybe you have trouble. But there’s no MLB 1B starter who is meaningfully different at scoops than anybody else. The difference in value is on throws to lead base on bunts and balls hit to you and then just range, mostly into the hole. Zim is last in MLB in the former by a mile....as in....he only cut down a guy at 3B or 2B on attempted sac bunt twice last year....for comparison, Rizzo did it 16 times, Goldshmidt 13, Bellinger 15, Etc. He just can’t throw a baseball. And with age his range is diminished too. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-83865430326677826282017-11-02T01:38:53.370-07:002017-11-02T01:38:53.370-07:00I wondered about this too and looked into it. Ever...I wondered about this too and looked into it. Everybody is convinced that their first baseman is unusually good at picks and scoops and receiving, when in reality, every major league first baseman is able to pick just about anything. Botched picks are crazy rare. Scoops like pretty and impressive when they happen, but at this level because every first baseman can scoop about the same, differences are SUPER negligible and basically can be ignored when compared to how much range you have. And Zim has less range than basically anybody. He also is last in MLB in throws to 2nd to start a DP or get lead runner and last in throws to 3rd on bunts because he can’t throw. Whenever I watch another team I’m constantly amazed at how good their 1B is defensively. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20229330760786378172017-11-02T01:33:39.615-07:002017-11-02T01:33:39.615-07:00What would be an all time stupid move by Nats. Out...What would be an all time stupid move by Nats. Outfielders is one thing we decidedly do not need. Unless you’re planning on trading Taylor and Bryce Harper in the same offseason. (Or trading Zim and converting JD to 1B, since he’s such a terrible OF. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-72015146511722815622017-11-01T13:01:24.379-07:002017-11-01T13:01:24.379-07:00JD Martinez just switched to Scott Boras. I predi...JD Martinez just switched to Scott Boras. I predict he signs with the Nats.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-36959858642942374652017-11-01T12:51:33.152-07:002017-11-01T12:51:33.152-07:00It would be great if we could see a Zim effect on ...It would be great if we could see a Zim effect on the defensive metrics of the Nats infield. Like, Rendon's DRS with Zim at first compared to someone else. Because Zim's DRS, as far as I know, only considers balls hit to him, which he's below average at fielding. But if Rendon saves more runs with Zim than with Robinson/Lind/et al. at first over a long period of time, that value ought to be attributed to Zim rather than to Rendon.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-21013800086733561172017-11-01T09:20:17.473-07:002017-11-01T09:20:17.473-07:00Zim is pretty darn good at digging out bad throws....Zim is pretty darn good at digging out bad throws. I don't think the defensive stats take this into account. That ability gives his infielders confidence.<br /><br />If you want a simple point of comparison, just watch Adam Lind. Now there is a terrible fielder. No range, can't throw, can't dig out throws. Pretty much a stiff. But, what a terrific hitter.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51420243673052504232017-11-01T08:34:44.859-07:002017-11-01T08:34:44.859-07:00@ssln, I agree there is often a lot of group think...@ssln, I agree there is often a lot of group think piling on when Harper makes his assessments on this blog. But, it is his blog so I guess he is entitled to his say, even when he is wrong. I saw a different Zim in spring training than Harper did and that's why I predicted a comeback player of the year for him. Harper continually says Zim is a "terrible" fielding 1b, sure he can't throw, but he definitely isn't a terrible fielder. He made some pretty ridiculous digs on terrible throws to the bag that others wouldn't have made IMO. Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69490009775032050402017-11-01T08:05:05.212-07:002017-11-01T08:05:05.212-07:00Zim and fielding stats -- meh. How many 1Bs actua...Zim and fielding stats -- meh. How many 1Bs actually have "range"? As far as fielding tough grounders, Zim is certainly above average with his 3B fielding stills still intact. He's also very good catching bad throws, as has been noted. He can't throw at all, which is why he's at 1B.<br /><br />Also, Karl is absolutely, positively right that Zim isn't going anywhere, just like Werth wasn't going anywhere. No trade is no trade. Plus Zim's contract is actually pretty "team friendly" if he continues to hit like he did in 2017.<br /><br />I do expect some regression. But I also don't expect Martinez to try to bat Zim clean-up.KWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-15998370932486301652017-11-01T07:56:51.626-07:002017-11-01T07:56:51.626-07:00Anon 7 a.m. -- In the WS, there have been some big...Anon 7 a.m. -- In the WS, there have been some big clutch hits, but there's also been a heck of a lot of under performance by stars. Basically, Joc Pederson (who hit .212 in the regular season) is doing his MAT impression and carrying the team while Turner is hitting .130, Bellinger and Puig .167, and Seager .217. Kershaw has a 5.40 ERA and Jansen has given up three runs. Roberts has terribly overtaxed his bullpen, in large part because they've got no starting pitchers they trust beyond their #1. The Dodgers are not a juggernaut. The Nats let them off the hook last year, just like they let the Cubs off the hook this year. The Astros have similar issues. Altuve is hitting .214. They don't trust their "closer" to go anywhere near the mound. And yet one of these teams is going to be the champ.<br /><br />The Nats have plenty of talent to compete in the postseason. They had three of the best-pitched games by starting pitchers from any team in the postseason. They just didn't hit enough to win but one of those games.<br /><br />Is it possible that we're deluding ourselves by thinking that they're close to championship caliber? Yes. But I don't think so. They're returning four hitters who posted OPS over .900 and adding a guy in Eaton who had 6 WAR in his last full season. They've got two of the top five starters in baseball, and their bullpen looks pretty well sorted out. They've got a top-five prospect who will likely be called up for good at some point in the season. Could they still benefit by adding extra pieces? Of course. Could they be risking a lot with an inexperienced manager? Yep. But are they that far off from where the Dodgers and Astros are? No way.<br /><br />(Also, for what very little it is worth, the Nats won the season series against both those teams.)KWnoreply@blogger.com