tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post522591676961832054..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Election Day ! Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65824777591418293712020-11-05T15:43:33.097-08:002020-11-05T15:43:33.097-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Natural Herbal Medicine https://www.blogger.com/profile/05963731007179717926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-1703882045055445372020-11-04T16:37:26.710-08:002020-11-04T16:37:26.710-08:00Seems like my big problem was that some states wer...Seems like my big problem was that some states were affected far more than others in counting and that screwed things up. Virginia was slightly slower. Maine was WAY slower that kept them from being "hey - everything looks the same as last time!" matches to IN/SC<br /><br />Close elections in AZ/NV, FLs Trumptasticness, and no turns from Biden kept him from having that bigger early lead and vaguely getting closer to win lead that I thought he might at various points. <br /><br />I went from 305 down to "290s" in my estimation by like 9:00. Felt even closer than I had it to start. Why was I close to start? I don't know. I guess when it's going to be a blowout and everyone agrees you can feel it. And if it wasn't going to be a blowout... well there were just gaps that existed in winning percentages expected after PA and after AZ that suggested clumps would go or not. If no blowout you just had to set your gap and I set it after the PA with a state extra for something happening. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51528750284071473782020-11-03T17:22:11.874-08:002020-11-03T17:22:11.874-08:00Nice analysis Harper! You’re clearly good at this ...Nice analysis Harper! You’re clearly good at this type of thing. I usually go to fivethirtyeight for election forecastingG Cracka Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718297381010491862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-52107967531056969542020-11-03T14:16:19.472-08:002020-11-03T14:16:19.472-08:00I'm not as sure. Well I'm sure we'll ...I'm not as sure. Well I'm sure we'll see some things go to the courts but no one is going to get behind quixotic attempts. They might get put out there but they'll die fast if the election isn't very close.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-27214401492066651242020-11-03T11:30:51.968-08:002020-11-03T11:30:51.968-08:00To dig into the weeds more, I'm looking specif...To dig into the weeds more, I'm looking specifically at Macomb County, MI as the bellwether. If it goes to Biden, I suspect Biden sweeps WI, MI, and PA. It's a bunch of Reagan Democrats that tipped the scale to Trump in the last election and fit the 2018 Blue Wave demographic quite well (white, upper-middle class, suburban moms). I don't envision a scenario where Trump sweeps WI/MI/PA, but if he wins Macomb, I could see him taking 2 out of 3.<br /><br />Something tells me that no matter what, though, this election is headed to the courts. I don't think there will be this "blue wave" just by nature of the Electoral College and shifting urban/rural demographics, and Trump has made it clear that he's ready to bring in lawyers the moment battleground states are called. Even if Trump pulls out a victory, I don't expect Biden to concede and move on with reports of voter intimidation already coming out of PA and NC.<br /><br />It's a weird world and while you can probably infer I'm pulling for Biden, I just desperately hope the next few months are peaceful whoever wins.Cautiously Pessimisticnoreply@blogger.com