tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post7198036838598282739..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Five things that could go easily go terribly wrong Harperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65350607783496496712017-03-27T08:28:06.368-07:002017-03-27T08:28:06.368-07:00Mike k - I agree that older teams seems to break d...Mike k - I agree that older teams seems to break down one year early but I don't think the Nats are there yet. Only two key players are going to be over 32 next year (Werth, Kelley) and a good chunk are still under 30. I think you worry when your good team starts getting into the bulk of it being 32/33. <br /><br />Werth at the end of 2013 basically dissed Davey (who didn't want to go and wasn't coy about that) in favor of Charlie Manuel. Undermine is probably strong but didn't support him <br /><br />Robot - Yes! We would all agree to that. Maybe a White House petition. <br /><br />DT - Sorry - I gave you an optimistic thing at the end of today's post to focus on. And really while we are entering 2017 with all that baggage, you're right that that rest should help. It may not help all of that but the Nats can probably whether two of those (more if Bryce rebounds) <br /><br /><br />Froggy - furthering the Werth discussion. He basically called for Riggs firing calling for "needing changes" but refused to come out and say it, then took shots at him later. As noted above at the end of Davey's tenure he was praising Charlie Manuel. We all know how the Williams saga ended. and I'm 90% sure, but having trouble finding it, that he's been a little miffed that he doesn't have more input on the manager hirings implicitly saying these guys aren't his guys. <br /><br />BxJ - Hey! I just said that! I should have read this first and just cut and paste. Yeah - the ultimate take-away was more what I said the other day about Murphy and Bryce together. These are two guys who in the past 2 years have put up MVP level seasons (as a floor - Bryce's was better than that). If they both do that? Forget it. The team would have to utterly collapse around them to not succeed. If either or both don't? Then these issues could help derail the Nats. Maybe,<br /><br />I worry more about a starter/pen combo injury just because you start to have issues having faith in either aspect. <br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-76760307720410302472017-03-27T07:22:40.791-07:002017-03-27T07:22:40.791-07:00@BxJaycobb - As I recall, BRYCE almost single-hand...@BxJaycobb - As I recall, BRYCE almost single-handedly carried the offense to the playoffs in 2015. No one else was really contributing much of anything, and he batted behind two blackholes. If we get even BRycE, and have him surrounded by Trea and Murphy, both contributing at somewhat-regressed-but-comparable-to-last-year levels, this could be one of the most potent offenses around, even with the Werth/Zim offensive hole that I'm fully anticipating. Plus, while Wieters will definitely be a drop from the Buffalo, but Eaton can't be worse than MAT/Revere.Robotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24810812209884530972017-03-24T22:41:47.768-07:002017-03-24T22:41:47.768-07:00Harper:
Here's the thing. I think it's a s...Harper:<br />Here's the thing. I think it's a solid bet Bryce is a....let's say .910+ OPS player this year. And Harper 2017 over Harper 2016 makes up for a LOT of the potential problems you have listed above. Just consider. If Bryce Harper plays halfway between Bryce 2015 and Bryce 2016 (let's say .285/.420/.530) that makes up for literally: Werth tanking big time+ Murphy regression+ a substantial starter health issue...if not more. No, really. It would be a 4 or 5 win difference. So frankly I actually think that how one feels about this team comes down to how one feels about Harper and Turner. If you think Harper is more likely than not going to return to at least a fringey MVP candidate form (I do) and if you think Turner is a...oh let's say...4-5 WAR player who can handle SS and will have a less spectacular but still solid .290-.300 with 12+ HR and 45+ SB season (I do), then that covers almost any offensive issues that deteriorate from last year (e.g. Zim is no better, wieters is .240 with 15 HR instead of Wilson, Werth collapses, Murphy regresses to .300 and 18-20 HR). I also happen to think we're going to see Rendon fully return to near 2014 form, but even if he is in healthy 2016 form, I'm actually QUITE comfy on the offense, which I think should be elite (top 2-3) in NL this year. The offense is the big advantage over the Mets. I'm a bit more worried about the (1) bench and (2) the pitching depth, which is where mets have decent advantages I think (particularly in their 4-7 starters....their depth is just way better...you're talking about Matz/wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo compared to like ross/Gio/AJ Cole/Fedde. Not good). So I think a strasburg/ross combo injury would be my biggest worry. Not a Kelley injury. I feel ok with our pen actually, at least for regular season. Agree on these?BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19097878966641218742017-03-24T19:28:53.718-07:002017-03-24T19:28:53.718-07:00Call me crazy, but I think Werth will know that if...Call me crazy, but I think Werth will know that if he's not contributing, he'd accept the bench.section 406https://www.blogger.com/profile/01106776789454903529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13175234122976198312017-03-24T18:15:27.196-07:002017-03-24T18:15:27.196-07:00How has Werth 'undermined every manager he'...How has Werth 'undermined every manager he's had here'? <br /><br />Matt Paint By Numbers Williams maayybe...but we were all rooting for that.Froggyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05425616684415704428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-42722173782070078162017-03-24T08:43:54.619-07:002017-03-24T08:43:54.619-07:00@Dusty's Toothpick DOOM is what we come here f...@Dusty's Toothpick DOOM is what we come here for (well, and the comments). Boswell provides optimism.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-43549583437463280462017-03-24T08:41:13.791-07:002017-03-24T08:41:13.791-07:00@Robot Werth at 1B hahaha I really don't see t...@Robot Werth at 1B hahaha I really don't see that happening. <br /><br />Harper this was a sobering blog going into the weekend! All things I definitely know are a possibility. You are right these are problems, that haven't fixed themselves, but do you think the down time during the off season really doesn't give these guys some time to recoup? I am hoping the down time from baseball helps the pitching. That said do you think it is easier for the pitching to bounce back or old talent in the field and at the plate to bounce back? I need some optimism going into the weekend.Dusty's Toothpickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10676402515363795870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-49081120443394022017-03-24T07:42:25.495-07:002017-03-24T07:42:25.495-07:00I'm a big Werth fan, but the guy's ego is ...I'm a big Werth fan, but the guy's ego is going to interfere with Dusty making the best decisions for the team. Personally, I'd like to see Werth moved to 1B and Zim benched, but there's no way that happens. Robotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13164795392687211592017-03-24T07:41:09.484-07:002017-03-24T07:41:09.484-07:00When the Nats were playing near .500 (or so it see...When the Nats were playing near .500 (or so it seemed) baseball last September, I chalked it up to the fact that they already had the division locked up, so they were resting starters and/or "subconsciously weren't trying as hard" hocus-pocus which probably exists but is impossible to quantify. However, reading this blog post, and seeing the Nats' performance was because the older and more injury-prone players were tanking, and the replacement players were doing well, worries me. The Nats are substantially the same as they've been the last few years, which means they're older, and historically these teams tend to tank a *tad* sooner than we expect, either brought on by injury or across-the-board statistical decline. Hopefully this isn't true of the Nats in 2017.<br /><br />I think Josh is right re: Werth v. Zim benching. Zim seems more suited personality-wise to handle it, and there is the excuse of a suitable replacement. But I think (with no proof) that the team will react to his benching worse than Werth. Then again, this is assuming that the players view both players the same as the fans do. Not sure if that's true, especially since a lot of Nats players weren't on the team during the lean years when all they had was Zim.<br /><br />How did Werth undermine Davey?mike knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-4343932596569546922017-03-24T07:17:49.388-07:002017-03-24T07:17:49.388-07:00Lind gives Dusty a "this guy kills righties&q...Lind gives Dusty a "this guy kills righties" excuse to give Zimm more time off. Heisey/MAT doesn't give that to Werth. He can probably pull a "I was an old player. I know you need rest." to get a couple days more but if Werth struggles he'll probably blame the manager as he's pretty much undermined every manager he's had here. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-19950086279444951282017-03-24T07:02:21.694-07:002017-03-24T07:02:21.694-07:00As hard as it is to see the Nats benching Zim, I t...As hard as it is to see the Nats benching Zim, I think it's even harder to see them benching Werth. I obviously don't know this for sure, but it seems like Werth is a lot more proud, and perhaps more important in the clubhouse. Angry Werth on the bench is probably worse for the team than angry Zim--so then it becomes a question of whether angry Werth/Zim or playing Werth/Zim is worse. That's a depressing question, but one where I think Dusty leans toward keeping vets in the game. They both probably have to be staggeringly bad to even get extra days off.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.com