tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post7881848273681098656..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: The extra inning questionHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-30529681830330642262022-05-23T16:18:22.217-07:002022-05-23T16:18:22.217-07:00About 9 years ago I used Retrosheet stats and some...About 9 years ago I used Retrosheet stats and some code to find out if bunting was a good idea or not. No reference to inning.<br />Teams scored more often when having bunted than when they didn't.<br />I didn't ask any questions about situation, but felt that bunting was incorrectly vilified. Clearly, you don't ask a batter to bunt if he usually can't. And, don't take the bat out of the hands of your best hitter.<br />But, when a manager chose to use it, it was usually a good idea.Barneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02073350468014652451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-65358005655013130172022-05-22T12:30:51.400-07:002022-05-22T12:30:51.400-07:00Gotta love the way these Nats are gaming the Pytha...Gotta love the way these Nats are gaming the Pythagorean Formula - scoring crooked numbers once a week to maintain that steady 1 and 6 pace! Expos 1983 Blog https://www.blogger.com/profile/10798243137456349089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13268519908941236552022-05-20T06:13:20.126-07:002022-05-20T06:13:20.126-07:00I think that article has it basically right. The ...I think that article has it basically right. The best source of data I know on this is the Tom Tango run expectancy matrix:<br /><br />http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html<br /><br />The numbers in this article are close but slightly off, so perhaps more recent data. <br /> But in any event, it is essentially it's a trade-off. The expected total number of runs is higher with man on 2B no outs (1.1 runs) than man on 3B with one out (.950). But the chance of scoring at least one run is higher with man on 3B with one out (.660) than man on 2B with no outs (.614). <br /><br />And, as the article states, this assumes the sacrifice works 100% of the time, which it doesn't. But on the flip-side, defending teams also sometimes fail to make an out when you try to sacrifice. So those things probably close to cancel each other out. <br /><br />So if you're the home team and the visiting team has not scored, it probably does make sense to bunt -- you only need one run to win, and a successful sacrifice increases the odds of that. For a visiting team, it probably does depend on state of bullpen, etc. -- is a slightly greater chance of 1 run worth reducing your chance of 2 or more runs by an even greater amount? NGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05031293798211042611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64567046774369430732022-05-20T03:41:05.471-07:002022-05-20T03:41:05.471-07:00Don’t know the accuracy of the stars. But there ...Don’t know the accuracy of the stars. But there is this:<br /><br /><br />https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/7/30/21347698/bunting-the-runner-over-in-extras-run-expectancy-odds-extra-innings-walk-off-bunt-sacrificeThe Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02819416305740233222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-12278889849273789902022-05-20T03:34:13.068-07:002022-05-20T03:34:13.068-07:00Hahaha, I read this while trying to feed my own ki...Hahaha, I read this while trying to feed my own kids and completely read your conclusion opposite of what you were actually saying. Basically, the whole point of my above post is…I AGREE! Someone please take the time to dig through numbers of the past 5 years of runners being on second, with no outs, in a tie ballgame, 9th inning or later, and compile the outcomes to determine the most prudent course of action. Clearly baseball teams don’t do this right? The Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02819416305740233222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-24241371028738146712022-05-20T03:26:03.112-07:002022-05-20T03:26:03.112-07:00I think the biggest thing to consider when looking...I think the biggest thing to consider when looking at the sac bunt, when you’re the away team, is what shape your bullpen is in to close out the game. If you have confidence you can shit down the next half inning, then why not? One run is all you need. If you’re the home team and still tied in extra innings then absolutely try and scratch out that run. Bunt that guy to third, then all you need is either the ball in the air, a wild pitch, or a swinging bunt down the first base side. <br /><br />I firmly believe that a run is MORE likely to score with a man on third and 1 out vs. a man on second with no outs. I would have to do a hard dive into numbers to flesh that theory out. But when you take into account all the ways a run can score from third without a batter actually getting a hit, I just have a hard time buying that a runner in second has a higher chance of crossing the plate.The Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02819416305740233222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-68269559277130724262022-05-19T14:06:29.855-07:002022-05-19T14:06:29.855-07:00Frandsen really said that? That's great!
But ...Frandsen really said that? That's great!<br /><br />But when the next batter, Cesar Hernandez, hit into a DP, did he say "See, I toldya so!" dc rlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07461439774954382179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23335073410677017592022-05-19T12:58:10.097-07:002022-05-19T12:58:10.097-07:00Surprised no one mentioned the true highlight of l...Surprised no one mentioned the true highlight of last night's game, which was Kevin Frandsen's commentary in the bottom of the 8th that Alcides Escobar striking out with the bases loaded and no one out was a "good strikeout" because, essentially, Alcides is so bad that if he put it in play, it probably would've been a double play. Alcides, meet bus. <br /><br />I'm sure analytics would say Frandsen is totally wrong, and of course Hernandez grounded into a double play immediately after the strikeout. But you know it's gotten bad (and it's time to try literally anyone else) when your own announcer is openly rooting for you to strike out because he thinks it's better for the team. <br /><br />NGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05031293798211042611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-8785437953134534552022-05-19T12:53:29.948-07:002022-05-19T12:53:29.948-07:00Also the handedness of the first batter might matt...Also the handedness of the first batter might matter, if a LHB you might be less likely to bunt since a routine groundout likely advances the runner anywayocw5000https://www.blogger.com/profile/02490387895214583856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-63047236722335067222022-05-19T12:14:31.497-07:002022-05-19T12:14:31.497-07:00I was bored, so I went through all the 2020-2021 e...I was bored, so I went through all the 2020-2021 extra innings games, of which there were 284 according to retrosheet. I then only looked at the games where there was a sacrifice bunt in extra innings, which brought the total down to 85 games (surprisingly high given Harper's intuition about it being a consensus bad idea).<br /><br />In situations where the away team bunted, they went on to win the game about 2/3 of the time (29/44). In situations where the home team bunted, they went on to win OVER 80% OF THE TIME (34/41). I'd argue teams should be bunting more based on those numbers alone, but I'm also too lazy to dig further into the situationsCautiously Pessimisticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23777294565063936742022-05-19T10:50:20.187-07:002022-05-19T10:50:20.187-07:00It matters where you are in your batting order, no...It matters where you are in your batting order, no? If the first guy up is your worst hitter then don't you just bunt the guy to third. If the first guy up is your best hitter then no chance he's bunting. If the ninth spot didn't lead off the 10th I think there's a good chance it would have been played differently.Jon Quimbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939096664895272304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-7055504976735312242022-05-19T09:40:55.935-07:002022-05-19T09:40:55.935-07:00A lot to consider, strategy-wise. If you're mo...A lot to consider, strategy-wise. If you're more likely to score with one out and a man on third, the away team has plenty of incentive to bunt the guy over—make the home team HAVE to get at least one to keep it going. But then you also reduce your chances of putting up a big number that would all but end the game. I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions.elchupinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06626204697716387752noreply@blogger.com