tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post8719449218198481378..comments2024-03-28T10:50:33.234-07:00Comments on Nationals Baseball: Robertson to Phillies - still not better than Mets who aren't better than Braves who I'm not sureHarperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-23935298441646541222019-01-07T06:53:54.894-08:002019-01-07T06:53:54.894-08:00@ssln legitimately, what are you trying to achieve...@ssln legitimately, what are you trying to achieve with your weird and mean-spirited comments? If you're going for lighthearted I'd suggest reevaluating your jokes.Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-51853714203405849842019-01-07T06:05:31.297-08:002019-01-07T06:05:31.297-08:00Great analysis, Harper. The upshot: fewer injuries...Great analysis, Harper. The upshot: fewer injuries should help, but on paper we have a team generally comparable to the one we fielded last year -- which was better than the actual results. 2018 was a year of vast underperformance, partly caused by a rash of injuries (why else would we have raided single-A for a 19 year-old outfielder?) To the physical improvement that comes from healing (Robles' elbow, Doolittle's toe, Howie's Achilles, Eaton's ankle, etc.) might be added the psychological boost of a new beginning. It's too soon to tell, but the team's aggressive initiative to fill holes from departing FAs and under-performers has changed its identity and possibly its attitude, which grew gloomier as the season progressed. Maybe we'll catch fire. This x-factor -- thankfully, not the hemorrhaging of talent -- will be the main story line for the Nats in 2019.Screechnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-53890895569592407042019-01-07T05:55:58.169-08:002019-01-07T05:55:58.169-08:00look ssln - like Teddy Rossevet said be the man in...look ssln - like Teddy Rossevet said be the man in the arena then. <br />Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-86316051925136485082019-01-07T05:51:49.194-08:002019-01-07T05:51:49.194-08:00Bill Pacells, BOOM! Check and mate, Harper.Bill Pacells, BOOM! Check and mate, Harper.Mr. Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00567685906834294396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90452662283497415252019-01-06T12:34:51.747-08:002019-01-06T12:34:51.747-08:00Harper
When you start off with a false premise you...Harper<br />When you start off with a false premise you wind up with crap. Maybe you go back and see what Bill Pacells said. <br />To help you out, it was you are what what your record says what you are. On the other hand, you never saw a stat that you didn't like and it is off season, so have some fun. It looks like another of your out of the box thoughts.sslnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05853597641731504272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-33360961993850928292019-01-06T11:33:23.991-08:002019-01-06T11:33:23.991-08:00The only way I think signing Harper is a good idea...The only way I think signing Harper is a good idea is if the Lerner family decides they don't care about the luxury tax. Sign Harper. Sign Rendon. Go for it by trading Eaton and maybe Carter Kieboom for another top starter. Sign DJ LeMahiue (spelling?) in Kieboom's spot. <br /><br />Harper is worth the money if you don't care about the luxury tax. He is not worth it if we turn around trade away half the team to get under the cap.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-50485665699985036882019-01-06T11:22:51.908-08:002019-01-06T11:22:51.908-08:00He basically *is* Taylor: great on defense, has s...He basically *is* Taylor: great on defense, has speed and power, but strikes out way, way too much and rarely connects. He's had one good year (2016, much like Taylor's 2017) to tantalize a "what if he put it all together." In no way would you want to rely on him as a full-season regular, but he can be a useful asset in a limited context, and given that Cespedes may end up missing all of 2019 and Lagares can't stay healthy, he improves the Mets' roster.DezoPenguinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-20068324710597753432019-01-06T10:24:08.210-08:002019-01-06T10:24:08.210-08:00He is a lottery ticket. When he makes contact he c...He is a lottery ticket. When he makes contact he can be an all-star. When he does not make contact (which is way more) he is AAAA.NotBobbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-34826214219421612022019-01-06T10:14:15.106-08:002019-01-06T10:14:15.106-08:00What do you all think about the Mets picking up Br...What do you all think about the Mets picking up Broxton? Is he just like MAT and probably won't do much for them? Or could they have found a gem that could possibly elevate their D and their overall outfield if he comes through?Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-80546170253112724132019-01-05T01:11:52.551-08:002019-01-05T01:11:52.551-08:00It’s pretty wild. I’ve gone from thinking we are 0...It’s pretty wild. I’ve gone from thinking we are 0% keeping Harper to 75% getting him and are in pole position. BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-11797316929475220822019-01-05T01:10:03.272-08:002019-01-05T01:10:03.272-08:00@Harper, Everybody: I’ve been thinking about this ...@Harper, Everybody: I’ve been thinking about this a lot....why do so many teams fear going over the luxury tax? The penalties are so puny it’s insane. Literally going over even for the second time in a row will cost you utility infielder money. Are owners essentially using the luxury tax as a bogeyman excuse to the fans to simply not spend money?BxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-37552618695361247962019-01-04T18:17:34.910-08:002019-01-04T18:17:34.910-08:00@John C.:
Murphy's first month back from inju...@John C.:<br /><br />Murphy's first month back from injury last season, which covered 15 games in June, was horrible, 33 ops+. From that point on his ops+ was 133, which is elite. If you take out his numbers after the trade his ops+ was 142 from July 1 with the Nats. Regression is a certainty but I wouldn't bet on a steep one from Murphy in Colorado, barring injury and acclimation issues.<br /><br />I get what you're saying but the Nats' offense is not replacing those numbers. Not with a free agent at any position or with any internal options. Whatever gains they might make defensively won't come close to offsetting the loss in offense. They will miss Murphy, even the 2018 version.<br /><br />sircnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-35821463793482103202019-01-04T17:49:12.523-08:002019-01-04T17:49:12.523-08:00It's fun to look and see where they are, with ...It's fun to look and see where they are, with the obvious caveat that they're still a few weeks even from P&C reporting - much less Opening Day. <br /><br />But putting that aside, one note that I'd like to point out that may surprise folks is that losing 2018 Murphy is not that big a deal. Yeah, he was terrible defensively but that was never his game anyway. But he didn't really hit, either. His OPS+ with the Nationals was 105 (down from 136 in 2017 and 155(!) in 2016). And even as he healed, he didn't get much better when he was with the Cubs (108 OPS+). As pointed out in a Fangraphs article after Murph signed with the Rockies, his peripherals were down across the board. His exit velocity (both aggregate and peak exit velocity) and pull rates tanked. His xwOBA (expected BABIP based on batted ball profile) fell to its lowest level in a few years. He essentially morphed back into what he used to be before becoming the poster boy for the launch angle movement - only slower and with worse defense. Losing 2016 or 2017 Murphy? Crippling blow. Losing 2018, who turns 34 at the beginning of the season? Cold heartedly, not such a loss. John C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00177992237175546115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-13838317355812371112019-01-04T16:45:50.562-08:002019-01-04T16:45:50.562-08:00@Harper: Bradford Doolittle/ESPN has Nats at 93 wi...@Harper: Bradford Doolittle/ESPN has Nats at 93 wins and the biggest winners of offseason. (Although I think it’s complex because a lot of the net plus is from their Pythag luck). <br />http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25676643/mlb-stock-watch-midwinter-winners-losersBxJaycobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15841583667789907324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-3419807850580355082019-01-04T15:15:32.294-08:002019-01-04T15:15:32.294-08:00The Pythag numbers for 2018 are misleading. I revi...The Pythag numbers for 2018 are misleading. I reviewed the stats. The Nats scored 10 runs or more in 15 games (including games with 17, 18 and 25 runs). In blow-outs (5+ runs), the Nats won 26 and lost 17, with a positive run differential of 89. Take out those blow-out games (including the losses) and the Nats run differential for 2018 was ZERO. These were the same Nats that were shut out 15 times. That's nearly 10% of their games. So, runs scored v. runs against is rather misleading. Likewise with some inflated batting averages from these blow-out games. Why the blow-outs? The most likely reason is that the Nats hit really well when they got to the bottom of the other team's bullpen. Another possible explanation is that the Nats hitters relaxed and hit better when there was nothing on the line. Probably a combination of the two.PotomacFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17479027458024348671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-31458708615696879962019-01-04T15:00:05.329-08:002019-01-04T15:00:05.329-08:00Eaton for a full season fairly healthy at the top ...Eaton for a full season fairly healthy at the top of the lineup can have a tremendous impactCardinalXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16302101047571185852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-90133992184384766082019-01-04T14:32:20.739-08:002019-01-04T14:32:20.739-08:00Wow, yeah... that's surprising but looks like ...Wow, yeah... that's surprising but looks like you're right. Guess I'm just remembering the two "unlucky" seasons and forgetting the rest. Maybe I've been living in DC too long now... all the crappy sports moments are finally getting to me. Haha.Dustin M. Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999131589970427610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-9416001787710940152019-01-04T13:03:53.686-08:002019-01-04T13:03:53.686-08:00Pythagorean projection differentials last eight ye...Pythagorean projection differentials last eight years for Nats (from Basebal Ref--please correct me if I got any seasons wrong--did this quickly):<br /><br />2018: 8 under (Martinez)<br />2017: 1 over (Baker)<br />2016: 2 under(Baker)<br />2015: 6 under (Williams)<br />2014: 1 under (Williams)<br />2013: 2 over(Johnson)<br />2012: 2 over (Johnson)<br />2011: 2 over (Riggleman, McLaren, Johnson)<br /><br />So, six out of eight seasons, the Nats were within 2 wins of the projection. Both times they missed it by a wide margin they had less experienced guys at the helm. Williams was just under in year one and quite a bit under year two. Johnson and Baker were pretty much right on it each time.<br /><br />My doubts about the Pythagorean estimates is that they are seen by some as a measure of the manager's effectiveness, as if the stats produced by hitters, fielders, and pitchers would be the same no matter who managed. But my impression, growing up watching Earl Weaver, was that the manager's earlier decisions help create those numbers in the first place. I don't know how the effect of managerial decisions on actually producing the numbers can be measured, but ever since I saw the Orioles have some amazing platoon numbers with outfielders like Roenicke-Ayala-Lowenstein (6.3 WAR as a platoon in 1979) or the way the O's rotated Rettenmund into their Buford-Blair-F Robinson outfield (those four generated 37.2 WAR in 1970-71 combined!) made me think the initial decisions on WHO to play WHEN were even more important than in-game decisions.<br /><br />Still, if Martinez being 8 under is just statistical noise, the Nats should improve almost automatically next year as a sort of correction.<br />Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-84683917887360181272019-01-04T12:54:39.715-08:002019-01-04T12:54:39.715-08:00Jimmy/cass - I think I can be convinced of Nats ov...Jimmy/cass - I think I can be convinced of Nats over Braves by season start. I'm not looking that closely now because it's all subject to change. <br /><br />DMS - well it's only happened two times during this window (last year and 2015) but I think I get what you are talking about. What happens is when the team plays suspiciously poorly we look for reasons to excuse that (because we expect them to be good) but when they play suspiciously well we don't (same reason). So every 12-14 month since... well probably 2014 got a look to see if they were underperforming the pythag but every 19-7 month got put away as a team just dominating because they are great, have great chemistry, etc. etc. Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-35408505030357242192019-01-04T12:45:29.097-08:002019-01-04T12:45:29.097-08:00Hey hey hey, AJ Cole's been DFA'd. I hear ...Hey hey hey, AJ Cole's been DFA'd. I hear the Nats could use a long man! Great K and swinging strike rates!Josh Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00524273388243642450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-88434421151431656872019-01-04T12:40:14.218-08:002019-01-04T12:40:14.218-08:00Just hoping, with the new Harper met with Lerner r...Just hoping, with the new Harper met with Lerner rumors, that Boras isn't tricking the Nats into bidding against themselves, and upping an offer that has not even been passed by anyone. He did that with the O's on Chris Davis. 300 for 10 is still a good offer.Johnny Callisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06517288347359334617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-64396439492406381812019-01-04T12:19:33.870-08:002019-01-04T12:19:33.870-08:00Doesn't it seem like every season we're ta...Doesn't it seem like every season we're talking about how the Pythag standings (or whatever) show the Nats were ACTUALLY a lot better than their record? Sure does to me...Dustin M. Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999131589970427610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-69256297612495406322019-01-04T12:04:54.110-08:002019-01-04T12:04:54.110-08:00I'm not saying the Fangraphs/Steamer numbers a...I'm not saying the Fangraphs/Steamer numbers are gospel - I'd take the over on them as well. But not by 10 wins. Without further signings, I think the Nats are pretty clearly the favorites but there are a lot of free agents still out there and trades that could be made. <br />cassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-80244205705441248182019-01-04T09:59:25.243-08:002019-01-04T09:59:25.243-08:00All these recent rumors is Boras desperately tryin...All these recent rumors is Boras desperately trying to find another suitor(phillies) to bid at or higher than our best offer. I don't see the Lerners letting Harper go to the phillies.Jimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08536083039518387432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207681.post-77383604468848626732019-01-04T09:57:08.173-08:002019-01-04T09:57:08.173-08:00I think the play here is we sign Harper, bargain b...I think the play here is we sign Harper, bargain bin dive for 2nd baseman and trade Eaton for pitching. I honestly think we are all in for Harper at this point.Jimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08536083039518387432noreply@blogger.com