Nationals Baseball

Monday, February 17, 2025

Monday Quickie - Paul DeJong and giving up

Over the weekend the Nats signed Paul DeJong. DeJong (pronounced de-young to rob everyone of fun El Kabong references) started his career in 2017 as a promising young IF hitting with power and average and fielding SS very well, but his inability to ID the strike zone killed the average and he became a "pop only" guy. But still if you can field and hit homers that's a nice combination. That lasted for a few years but in 2020 he got COVID, in 2021 he broke a rib, and since then he's battled back pain. The combination stomped on the corpse of what was his average and he was a liability at the plate for several seasons. He managed to get his power back for the first time since 2019 last year, but he also had his first poor season in the field even though he was playing only 3B. Did the Nats need another DH?

Actually that might be interesting in a weird way.  Josh Bell, DH apparent, is a switch hitter but unlike a lot of switch hitters he is better from the right side of the plate hitting lefties. DeJong is a RHB but hits right handed pitching better than LHP. So platoon? OK sure, but neither are 'mashers'.  Its a platoon to get half a WAR better, not any real advantage

So he might hit but he also might be a DH and he turns 32 mid year. What's the point?

I don't know. The age and recent past don't suggest a good trade candidate. Presumably the Nats signed Amed Rosario for some reason. 

All I can think of is trade. If you were going to try to move Brady House or CJ Abrams or Luis Garcia for something well then a bunch of 2B/3B/SS fill-ins would be necessary but this would be PRE-SEASON.  There isn't need for fill-ins come September. 

When a signing like this happens it matters where it fits in the process. This isn't a final piece, complementing several bigger moves. This is one move of many trying to find something that works. That's worrying. That feels like a white flag going up for 2025. 

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Bregman a Red Sox

The Nats could have afforded to sign him.  Honestly they can afford to sign anyone with this payroll. 

While it seems like a huge overpay it really isn't based on the current market rates for production and what Bregman does. The gamble is that he doesn't get injured or continue his slide. The former is just something you have to live with.  The latter is more worrisome but is what makes him available. It took teams a couple of years but they realized current Bregman (does nothing wrong) isn't past Bregman (a beast) and they began challenging him, getting ahead, and getting him to chase more. The end result was production bouyed by the quirk of defensive stats.

The hope would be he does really well and opts-out or does about what he did the past couple of years but decides to stay, so you get him without committing to his down years. 

 It's a good contract. Has risks. But it doesn't bind the Red Sox for too long.

 Seems like the Nats would have had to put out something like 5/200 to get him. 

 Just spitballing bc pitchers and catchers interest no one after Day 1.  

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Pitchers and Catchers Report - Let's try to be excited

Yes it's disappointing the Nats have seemingly passed on the season. But there's still reason to be excited about baseball this year in DC.  Let's think about it. 

1) This is the first full season for James Wood, who was good last year, and Dylan Crews, a consensus Top 5 prospect in baseball. The future is NOW (even if it is JUST the future) 

2) Luis Garcia took a real step forward last year and it'll be interesting to see if that's a fluke, his ceiling, or the prelude to a break-out

3) CJ Abrams had extended moments of looking like one of the most exciting players in baseball. If he can string more of those together....

4) Nathaniel Lowe is pretty good!  That'll be fun after a year of crappy 1B.  Nats fans appreciate a solid 1B

5) Trevor Williams looked like an ace every time he was on the mound last year. If that keeps up the Nats will have a steal

6) Gore and Herz and Parker are 26 and under and pitched better than their ERA suggested.  Gore has the pedigree. Herz had something of a break-out season continuing the numbers he showed in the minors despite fancy stats suggesting he might not. Arms to watch! 

That's a pretty decent list right? 

There is a youth movement here that should blossom into something better than the team is now. There is talent here and the likelihood of more fun and interesting baseball in 2025.  Will it be more WINNING baseball. Well, the team left it up to the baseball gods but while that's a shame it doesn't mean the season is 100% over or unwatchable.

AND if they do blossom and it's a fun season of near contention then we can REALLY yell if they don't put money in next off-season 

Thursday, February 06, 2025

Sure got quiet out there

 We got a column a week ago from Barry that was basically "Is this it?

It's getting late as pitchers and catchers will start to trickle in next week and the Nats still seem like a team whose off-season is only 75% done and that's factoring in the lowered expectations. 

The Nats solved the 1B issue in their typical "savvy but let's not go crazy" way and stuffed the rotation with... well stuff... in the hopes that a strong rotation emerges from the intriguing if not inspiring raw materials.

But the bullpen seems 2-3 arms short, 3B is to be manned by hopes and dreams and the DH question was answered with a shrug. 

 The answers being so limited and the questions still remaining all point to the same thing. The Nats aren't trying to compete this year.  

That's disappointing for a team now 6 years removed from their last winning season. A lost season (say under 75 wins) this year is completely possible and it would give DC the longest stretch it has seen without hitting 80 wins. 

 Fans got their championship and it's lucky that they did bc I think they'd be turning on the management otherwise. 

But this is the lot we've been given this year. Wait and see... again. Evaluate... again. Look to next offseason... again. The first time, after 2023, was understandable. That would have been aggressive. This time, when the window should be opening with some young talent on hand, feels overly cautious if one wants to be generous. Next time will be unforgivable if it happens. 

But there's still time to try something and we don't evaluate until things are over. And it's not bleak. It just remains cloudy and dull when if could have been sunny and exciting.

Monday, February 03, 2025

Monday Quickie - Flaherty off the board

It was seeming more and more a pipe dream with the depth of non top-line starters the Nats have brought in but in case you were hoping for that one guy that might head the rotation, well... stop hoping. Jack Flaherty signs with the Tigers. There are guys still out there (Kyle Gibson, Nick Pivetta) but none that you can convince yourself could lead a rotation. Now he's probably NOT a rotation leader, so it's not like they lost out on the next Scherzer, but the combination of skill, age, and last year performance suggested it wouldn't be a total surprise if he pitched like a 1/2 in 2025 and a few years more. 

The Nats appear done in FA to some degree though we still hope we'll see some more RP moves. 

Could something happen in trade? It hasn't been rumored but guys, until we hit the end of February let's assume it's all still a work in progress,

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Relivers left

The Nats need another relief arm (or two) and for a team that hasn't spent a lot of money it seems like an easy place to put some of that and make an impact. The Nats don't have a deep pen. They don't have a bunch of AA and AAA relief arms dying to get up. 

The major league signings recently have been relief focused so it's worth a perusal to see who's left.

VERY GOOD LAST YEAR

We're left with the old. David Robertson (40) and Kenley Jansen (37). Both these guys have been nothing short of great if you look at their careers, however lacking the save chances leaves Robertson as an afterthought to most fans compared to Jansen. But it also leaves him more affordable. At 40 he won't get more than a 1yr deal with an option. Current talk revolves around the Cubs. Jansen on the other hand will look for either real big money or a final secure contract and he's looking for a contender. So while the Nats have been floated out there he many not be as interested in coming here for a team that is still at least one year away. 

GOOD LAST YEAR

Danny Coulombe was right across the way in Baltimore finally putting it together and having that complete year his stats suggested was possible. Although it was really a complete HALF year due to injury. If you think he's healthy and able to repeat last year he could be a steal. The Yankees look close to picking him up.

Hey Dylan Floro! A consistent keep the ball in the park pitcher is not flashy but is definitely solid and proved it again in DC after an off 2023. There isn't a lot of talk so here's where I think the Nats could jump in. Excited yet?

Jakob Junis is a failed starter who moved into long relief for good in 2023. 2024 was better with him showing incredible control which helped keep his hits down. Doesn't K guys and gives up the occasional homer but if he's hitting his spots like 2024 he'd be a better Floro.

CLASSIC NATS TARGETS

Alas, the Nats in their "win later, maybe" mode are probably looking for guys like they brought in last year. Not old guys who weren't great in 2024 but that is probably a little fluke and they should pitch fine in 2025 and maybe they can flip them or keep them depending. Not STUFF guys either, more control and homer depressers. To that end :

Trevor Gott sits on the fringes of being a good reliever with the ability to keep homers and walks down... sometimes. He missed 2024 with injury so probably there on a minor league deal. 

Colin Poche is an unexciting Rays castoff who would be only 31 this year and in 2023 really held down homers. He walks a bit too much but his minor league numbers suggest the homer suppression can be kept up. 

Ryan Yarborough was a guy who lived off the fact he didn't walk many people so the hits and homers he gave up were less impactful. Last year was his first full time short reliever season and showed some promise.

Brent Honeywell Jr. can't strike out anyone but doesn't want to. His numbers last year and in the minors make you think he can keep the walks down and if he can then he would be actually good. Plus he is a record holder (most pitches in one World Series inning - 50) 


Pencil me in for Floro and Yarborough and Rizzo calling it a day.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Monday Quickie - quick divisional review

Sadly in baseball division mean less and less as they work to more "equal" schedules which are worse for players (travel), worse for the quality of baseball in general (travel and maybe a bit of juice lost), mostly neutral for home team fans (again juice lost - losing a bunch of games versus rivals to get a few games versus a team that might draw), but appease owners who want to make it as easy as possible to make the playoffs and don't like it when they are stuck in a tough division. 

Still you do play more games against your division so the quality of those teams do matter. That's been tough for the Nats as the Phillies, Braves and Mets have all been good recently and seem committed to winning right now. Has the off-season changed anything?

 Phillies

The Phillies most noticeably lost bullpen arms. Jeff Hoffman who developed into quite a good end of game arm the couple years they had him and Spencer Turnball who has been a good long reliver.  But they basically swapped the Blue Jays Jordan Romano for Hoffman. If Romero is healthy (he is coming back from surgery but looks good so far) it's close to a push as Romano is also very good.  And for Turnball they brought in old Nats favorite Joe Ross. Overall a slight downgrade on these but just slight. And the pen may be even less important for them in 2025 as they traded for Jesus Luzardo to fill out the rotation which should be an improvement over what they were running in the 5th spot last year, while waiting for top prospect Andrew Painter. 

Offensively they brought in Max Kepler to be one guy in the line-up who doesn't strike out like crazy. The offense was good though, didn't lose anything so unless age gets them (unlikely but possible) they should be good here again. 

Braves 

The Braves lost quite a few pieces. Jorge Soler, who they traded for, and did well for them. Dependable Travis d'Arnuad, disappointing Gio Urshela, and good reliever AJ Minter.  More importantly they let two arms go in Charlie Morton and Max Fried. They remain at least one arm short which is worrisome for a team that has seen their young arms continually get injured. 

The offense is more secure with Jurickson Profar replacing the fading Adam Duvall as good depth. It's a younger offense that didn't perform up to expectations last year, but still managed to be average. 

Mets

Cohen's Boys have been extremely active.,  They haven't technically lost much yet - just Luis Severino but only because so much of their 2025 roster remains unsigned starting with Pete Alonso. They seem to be letting go of good depth Harrison Bader, surprise hitter Jose Iglesias. Solid if old JD Martinez, rotation arm Jose Quintana, and relievers of various goodness Phil Maton, Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino. Whew

But they added JUAN SOTO and Clay Holmes to start maybe and AJ Minter and Frankie Montas and Jesse Winker and Jose Siri to replace Bader's late game D and some other depth pieces.  Whew again. 

For all that they still have rotation depth and relief questions. 


The Phillies should be about the same. Great starting pitching, great offense, and a bullpen that should be good enough to let them run at a mid 90s win total. 

The Braves are seemingly letting it ride with the younger bats turning it back on and carrying the team again. Acuna, Harris, Albies and Olson could (should?) all do a bit better and if they all do the offense takes a big turn positive, enough to probably cover the mishmash of hopes and dreams in the rotation behind Sale. There's real big variance here. 

The Mets should offensively smash teams, and they have enough pitching to hold ground on the mound though depth could bite them right now. It would be wise of them to complete the team with a SP and RP but with already tons of money in the team and possibly throwing money at Pete Alonso that could be it. It's a playoff team but some smart final moves could make it a WS favorite. 

 

Tough road for the Nats but there is an opening IF things falter for the Braves. If they don't the Nats will have a hard time getting within 10 games of any of these. There's always the Marlins!