Offseason Position Discussion : Third Base

If you are inclined to be angry at the Nats for bad decisions, third base in 2024 provoked you to a near fury.  The Nats went into the season with a two prong strategy (note that this is the perfect number of prongs to stick in a socket and electrocute yourself), third base would be split between "never prospect" Trey Lipscomb based off a minor amount of competence shown in AA with just a bit of surprising pop, and "crashed and burned" former 2nd pick in the draft Nick Senzel who had been given a solid chance by the Reds and hadn't progressed past "bad".

Guess what? This didn't work. In August and September Jose Tena took the position and hit pretty well.  He fielded like crap but based on all reports on him that was an anomaly.  It ended up a real black hole for the Nats after just last year being a pleasant surprise with Jeimer Candelario.

The idea though is that this was a bridge year to the Brady House plan that takes place at some point in 2025. At the end of July that looked like Opening Day but Brady House hit .228 / .261 / .339 the rest of the way making that look unlikely.

Are you ready for another season of the Nats punting?

Presumed Plan : 

Tena holding the position until House is ready.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

With Vargas now gone, Tena should be the super-sub but he's the only one on the team who played 3B last year. That makes him the leader in the clubhouse. As DH/1B are noted issues without an hopeful solution in the minors coming up soon, they deserve more of the FA look.  Tena wasn't bad at the plate and should field so you play him and hope either he comes through or Brady House starts like a House on fire, or both and things just work out. 

They will need to find a back up though. Do they carry Trey Lipscomb for that? Just stick with Andres Chaparro who is a subpar defender? I'm not sure they know and they might be looking for FA to find the answer for them.

My Take : 

This could be trouble.  They really didn't want to be in punt mode again in 2025 but Brady House didn't push through enough to make you want to bring him up and neither of their low-rent fixes surprised. They are now stuck with a minor mid-season trade surprise to try to keep up what he did in 2024 while getting back on track with the glove. This has all the makings of another year of this position being one of the worst in the majors. 

But I don't know what you do since all expectations are that House will be given the chance to take over the position at some point. You either go all in on a solution or you hope like a Jose Iglesias or Donovan Solano falls into your lap for a couple million. Sure those guys might fail to hit againbut it's worth a few million to see. 

There IS an all in solution in Alex Bregman who will demand and get a big long salary as the best option at the position by a good margin. The Nats could do that then let 1B/DH figure itself out and worry about where House goes later - or maybe even trade him off. I don't think that's where I want the Nats to land even if he is the #2 position player available. He's just not the gamechanger the Nats need, imo. This offense doesn't need solid - which is what he is now

Offseason Position Discussion : Shortstop

Shortstop was a wild ride for the Nats in 2024. CJ Abrams started hot, cooled down, then got even hotter.  Halfway through the season he was hitting .286 with 13 homers and 5 triples and he was named an All-Star.  But he cooled down a lot heading into the game and stayed ice cold through August. He was picking things back up in September when he was seen at a casino very late at night and put up a bad game the following day. 

*WARNING I AM GOING TO ASSUME SOME THINGS ABOUT WHAT THE TEAM WAS THINKING HERE*

Rizzo, seeing this as an embarrassment to the team, used it as another teaching lesson and sent Abrams down the rest of the year. 

Overall the position was neutral for the Nats. Abrams did end up hitting well for the season as a whole, his wild positive swings outweighing his wild negative ones. However he still isn't a great shortstop in the field and that truth, at a position where that might matter most, holds his value down. Still "neutral" might have been the best position all season for the Nats, such is where their offense stood in 2024. 

Presumed Plan : 

CJ Abrams with someone backing him up.  Nunez? Tena?

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The good outweighed the bad. 

The position isn't a problem.

To do something with Abrams now that isn't just "let him play and try to figure it out" seems like unnecessarily causing yourself an problem that doesn't currently exist. 

The Nats have other options. Jose Tena was surprisingly good at the plate in a short audition with the team. Nunez looks like he could be a Gold Glover at the position. Brady House looks ready to move to the majors. But at 24, a former top prospect and an All-Star just last year, I can't think of a good reason to abandon the plan that had Abrams as a long term answer somewhere in the Nats infield. 

As for who backs him up... depends on what the Nats value I guess. It seems they didn't want to go with "steady D, poor bat, good veteran presence" which is what Vargas supplied. So it'll be a choice likely between Tena, Nunez, and House, likely in that order as House is more likely up to play 3B full-time, and Nunez is likely in AAA to work on hitting.

My Take :  

Yes, when Abrams is bad he's real bad. In 77 games in May, July and August he hit something like .190 / .255 / .300 with 7 homers.  With subpar defense you are looking at one of the worst players in baseball.

But the possibilities of Abrams are intoxicating. A guy that can hold down SS hitting .300 with power and speed? There's a reason he was a top prospect and over 48 games in April and June he hit something like .330 / .420 / .640 with 11 home runs. 

At 24 it's reasonable to think he can improve a bit, and even if he just settles the high and lows into a 110-120 OPS+ guy that can field SS and provide some excitement on the basepaths and little pop? That's a solid player that solves a tricky position through 2028. 

I do worry that Abrams got on the team's bad side and will go through a Robles like trial of having to prove himself above and beyond what other players have to do. Or worse, they are ready to deal him out for SP help hoping that the mix of other guys internally available will fill the gap. But we don't know that yet and we can't worry about something that might happen. 

Abrams is the SS. He has potential to be great. He should be good overall. Let's just let it play its course in 2025.

Monday Quickie - Walker talk

MLB trade rumors and Mark Zuckerman both have the Nats in the Christian Walker sweepstakes or at least have the idea that the Nats should be in the Walker sweepstakes. You know I agree. Rizzo has already said basically "don't expect anything before the Winter Meetings are done" but things are fluid.  Such is FA baseball time. 

The other "Nats should do this" floated out there was picking up Anthony Santander. Mainly because he has power and the Nats lack power. 

There seems to be some sense that the SP market will be tough this year so that'll be interesting for the Nats, who really should grab someone. 

OK position stuff continues tomorrow

 

No Vargas?

Vargas (and Joey Meneses) hit the FA market.  I am surprised for all the reasons I noted below. 

It's seems pretty good they are moving on.  Likely this means they see Jose Tena as the future utility man as he is a lot younger and has the potential to hit a bit better.  His defense is right now probably comparable to Vargas which actually shows well for Vargas who is 8-9 years older.  I'd expect that he would be worse in his late 20s but that's half a decade away. In the meantime there's really no downside unless you think Vargas' clubhouse presence will be missed a lot.  Joey was also kind of liked from what I could tell so we'll see. Winning makes guys feel a lot better about the clubhouse without clubhouse guys needed. 

Monday Quickie - FA season has begun

Lot's of opt-outs, options declined, etc. Let's go!

For the Nats the main thing that happened was they declined their Joey Gallo option. That was the only option on the table for 2025 and his performances was bad in the off-year Gallo way, which is to say OMG TERRIBLE HIDE YOUR EYES so this is no surprise.  We wish Joey well on whatever team picks him up for peanuts and hops that they can squeeze one last good year out of him

The Nats really don't have to do any funny business now. They have enough 40 man spots open to eat up the IL players that need to be back on. They of course, won't all be on the 40 man at the start of the season but for now they go back on and they'll drip back to the minors as the off-season progresses. Mason Thompson, Cade Cavalli, and Nasim Nunez are easy return to the minors choices as you have to think they start the season there.

It's all looking forward, except for maybe Rule V.  They have to protect Hassell this year which you would expect them to do.

In general the Nats have not been early movers and things don't get going until after the Winter Meetings (Dallas Dec 8-11) so as interested as we are it'll likely be a waiting game until then.   But if you are interested some of the bigger pre-Winter Meetings moves the Nats have made in the Rizzo time frame

• pre-2013 : Traded Alex Meyer for Denard Span. 
• pre-2019 : Ill-fated Trevor Rosenthal signing, not ill-fated Kurt Suzuki signing, Trading for Yan Gomes, Signing Patrick Corbin
• pre-2023 : picked up Jeimer Candelario

 

Funny that their WS year was the only year filled with early moves. 

In other news, Jacob Young did NOT win the Gold Glove he probably deserved (but the winner wasn't a chump) 

Offseason Position Discussion : Second Base

Garcia opened 2024 in a precarious position. After taking a mild step forward in 2022, he did not have a good 2023 at the plate. Toward the end of that year the Nats, as they are wont to do, singled Garcia out as a player to make an example of and unexpectedly dropped him to the minors. If you are thinking I'm misjudging the situation and he deserved it as part of a larger issue with concentration - the idea of him being "sloppy" or "making too many mistakes" just isn't backed up by the data. Don't feel bad, even I bought into some of the spin they were putting out. Turns out though he made real improvements from 2022 to 2023 both on defense and on the basepaths. No, this was a guy simply not hitting who the Nats wanted to hold up as a warning sign to young players. This is what they do.

He did not hit in AAA or at first when brought back up but perhaps the Nats ploy did work in the end because Garcia hit great in the last two weeks of 2023 and better than he ever has in 2024. This includes a scorching July and August where he hit .like .340 with 8 homers. I think most importantly though the Nats didn't try to make him more selective and let him hit. Walk-rate down, K-rate up but a LOT better hitter. His defense continued to improve and he had another solid year baserunning. In no aspects was he great but he was good all around from the start of the season and secured the position for himself for 2025.

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia Jr will man 2B with Vargas backing him up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

After C, 1B, and DH you might think the Nats are in big trouble, but really that's was just a bad starting point for the team. They have several things set pretty well for 2025 and second base is one of them. Garcia Jr isn't one of the best second baseman in the game but he might squeak into the Top 10 and he's most certainly not a problem. We talked about it a little in the start of the off-season. He hit the ball a lot better. At 24 he can still improve so this is a no-brainer. 

The Vargas back-up call is about flexibility. Vargas not only played 2B and 3B but SS and OF when needed. That kind of positional flexibility is very nice to have.

My Take : 

Not much here. Garcia has solidified himself at 2B. It's possible he has an off-year again and the Nats sour on him. They do seem to focus on players in this way. But Garcia has generally looked ok enough that you shouldn't consider him a problem. Last year there was a question if someone would push him from the minors, either Lipscomb/Kieboom straight up or a shifted House. The first two didn't push and House didn't shift. With no one pushing him from the minors he's set. I don't think there will be any disagreement from the rabble.

Vargas is a nice defender.  Best at third but being able to fill in late on D at even SS is a boon for a team who have a bunch of guys that look like they should be good on D but aren't. Plus by all accounts he's a great clubhouse guy. Shame he can't hit at all, but at least he does make contact. Weak, weak contact, but contact.  In terms of issues, "utility infielder could hit better" might rank last on things to fix so while it could become a drag if the Nats suffer any long term injury problems, for right now Vargas makes sense. Worry about fixing this if you are making a title push and want no holes.

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts.  DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day. 

They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that.  However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit. 

Yikes.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B.  Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract. 

Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.

They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first.  The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.

My Take :  

Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both.  Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least. 

But Soto is expensive. 

I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy.  You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.

But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period. 

It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.

*Amazingly only 26th in baseball. 

** I mean they got to right?