He should have shut them out? He didn't go 9? He didn't go strikeout strikeout after the error?
Friday, May 17, 2013
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Pouring
There are no good options. I don't just mean for Espinosa here, I mean in general. I know you all think that Espinosa is the worst thing since bread wasn't sliced (which is silly, because except for processed sandwich bread what bread do you actually prefer to come sliced? Are you the reason all the crusty fresh-baked loaves in my grocery store are 95% sliced? If so I hate you.) but there are three batters hitting worse than he is (.502) in May by OPS. The three? Roger Bernadina (.452), Steve Lombardozzi (.441), and Tyler Moore (.315). In the matter of one offseason the bench went from "secret weapon" to "black pit of despair" in no time flat. Whenever anyone has gone down they've been replaced by a terrible offensive player.
I'm not surprised this happened to Tyler Moore, but Lombo is a little surprise and Bernie's is a a flat out shock to me. He didn't just regress from his best year, he free falled. The knee-jerk reaction is to say "small sample size" and maybe this is just a fluke. Ok, let's see then, how much is this BABIP? Given their average BABIPs (I used .300 for Moore and Lombo, .290 for Bernie (and Espinosa for the hell of it)) they would be hitting this: Lombo .271, Espinosa .234, Moore .179, Bernie .178. Without looking any further that would explain why Espy isn't at his usual "just decent enough average not to turn fans against him" and Lombo isn't at his "deceptively high enough average to make fans want to see him play everyday even though all of those hits are singles". But it doesn't help Moore and Bernie much. Why? As we explained earlier with Moore - too few balls in play. Too many Ks. Moore is striking out an alarming 44% of the time, but Bernie is up there, too, near 35%.
And this tells us something important about strikeouts. Everyone hates the fact Danny Espinosa strikes out so much (around 25% of the time right now) But it's at those rates getting around 30% and higher that you need to worry about K's. Adam LaRoche is heating up in May with his hitting streak and a .356 average in the month. He's still striking out 26% of the time this month. Desmond and Zimm have been the best non-Bryce hitters on the team this year and they've both struck out nearly as often as Danny. It's not the Ks.
What is it with Danny? Right now it looks like an inability to drive the ball. LD-rate at 9.8% which is significantly lower than the past couple years (16.1% and 18.9%) . Same with HR/FB rate, 8.1% after years of 13.5% and 12.6%. It could be just small sample size. Maybe. Patience is wearing thin but I'll keep saying I think we should wait until Memorial Day. You can have a bad month. You CAN have two but at that point you may need to make a decision, which would almost certainly be a DL decision, because if you have a third then half the year is gone.
So who replaces him? Minor leaguers? Sure there are guys hitting ok Rhymes & Kobernus come to mind but neither is someone you feel good enough about to pull Espinosa right now. (and no one fields like Espinosa). Rendon? He's a 3rd baseman to this franchise. He's played only 4 times at 2nd in the minors this year.
And speaking of having no good options, Detwiler and Ramos went down. You'll probably see Solano for Ramos. He is hitting .167 / .196 / .204. Why him if he's hitting that bad? Because the other AAA catcher is Maldonado and he's .098 / .159 / .098. Sandy Leon? He's hitting this year like he hit in every year that wasn't 2012 (poorly). As for Detwiler the Nats don't have a real prospect pitching well above High-A right now. Daniel Rosenbaum is doing ok, but he's a paradox. He's not good enough that you expect him to stick (the Rockies had him as a Rule V this year and tossed him back) but he hasn't started his clock yet so you hate to do that just for a spot start. Look instead for one of the terrible veteran AAA arms (Young, Maya, Perry and Ohlendorf) to step in.
1-2 vs the Dodgers isn't bad. But they really need a strong showing vs the Padres with the Giants waiting at the end of the road.
I'm not surprised this happened to Tyler Moore, but Lombo is a little surprise and Bernie's is a a flat out shock to me. He didn't just regress from his best year, he free falled. The knee-jerk reaction is to say "small sample size" and maybe this is just a fluke. Ok, let's see then, how much is this BABIP? Given their average BABIPs (I used .300 for Moore and Lombo, .290 for Bernie (and Espinosa for the hell of it)) they would be hitting this: Lombo .271, Espinosa .234, Moore .179, Bernie .178. Without looking any further that would explain why Espy isn't at his usual "just decent enough average not to turn fans against him" and Lombo isn't at his "deceptively high enough average to make fans want to see him play everyday even though all of those hits are singles". But it doesn't help Moore and Bernie much. Why? As we explained earlier with Moore - too few balls in play. Too many Ks. Moore is striking out an alarming 44% of the time, but Bernie is up there, too, near 35%.
And this tells us something important about strikeouts. Everyone hates the fact Danny Espinosa strikes out so much (around 25% of the time right now) But it's at those rates getting around 30% and higher that you need to worry about K's. Adam LaRoche is heating up in May with his hitting streak and a .356 average in the month. He's still striking out 26% of the time this month. Desmond and Zimm have been the best non-Bryce hitters on the team this year and they've both struck out nearly as often as Danny. It's not the Ks.
What is it with Danny? Right now it looks like an inability to drive the ball. LD-rate at 9.8% which is significantly lower than the past couple years (16.1% and 18.9%) . Same with HR/FB rate, 8.1% after years of 13.5% and 12.6%. It could be just small sample size. Maybe. Patience is wearing thin but I'll keep saying I think we should wait until Memorial Day. You can have a bad month. You CAN have two but at that point you may need to make a decision, which would almost certainly be a DL decision, because if you have a third then half the year is gone.
So who replaces him? Minor leaguers? Sure there are guys hitting ok Rhymes & Kobernus come to mind but neither is someone you feel good enough about to pull Espinosa right now. (and no one fields like Espinosa). Rendon? He's a 3rd baseman to this franchise. He's played only 4 times at 2nd in the minors this year.
And speaking of having no good options, Detwiler and Ramos went down. You'll probably see Solano for Ramos. He is hitting .167 / .196 / .204. Why him if he's hitting that bad? Because the other AAA catcher is Maldonado and he's .098 / .159 / .098. Sandy Leon? He's hitting this year like he hit in every year that wasn't 2012 (poorly). As for Detwiler the Nats don't have a real prospect pitching well above High-A right now. Daniel Rosenbaum is doing ok, but he's a paradox. He's not good enough that you expect him to stick (the Rockies had him as a Rule V this year and tossed him back) but he hasn't started his clock yet so you hate to do that just for a spot start. Look instead for one of the terrible veteran AAA arms (Young, Maya, Perry and Ohlendorf) to step in.
1-2 vs the Dodgers isn't bad. But they really need a strong showing vs the Padres with the Giants waiting at the end of the road.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Hey, Haren is good again! So that's good.
It's Kershaw and it wasn't a bad day so what are you going to do? Since the Nats don't work walks they weren't likely to get to the pen early. So you cross your fingers, hope to string together a few hits or get a timely XBH and that your pitcher was doing well enough to win. They got the latter but not the former.
The latter is good news though. After looking like he was done a month ago, Haren seems better. Mostly his control is back and that's enough to avoid the catastrophes that were taking place to start the season. Two walks in his last 4 games. But also he's not getting hit as hard as before. Three out of four games with 2 or fewer hits categorized as line drives. He might not be over that hump just yet (the Tigers had 9 such hits which is usually trash fire territory) but he's trending in the right direction.
Any other notes?
While it's unfair to judge any hitter after facing Kershaw. Tyler Moore went 0-fer again. He's currently 4th worst in WAR in fangraphs and while it's real unfair to judge something like that now, there are a couple things to note.
The latter is good news though. After looking like he was done a month ago, Haren seems better. Mostly his control is back and that's enough to avoid the catastrophes that were taking place to start the season. Two walks in his last 4 games. But also he's not getting hit as hard as before. Three out of four games with 2 or fewer hits categorized as line drives. He might not be over that hump just yet (the Tigers had 9 such hits which is usually trash fire territory) but he's trending in the right direction.
Any other notes?
While it's unfair to judge any hitter after facing Kershaw. Tyler Moore went 0-fer again. He's currently 4th worst in WAR in fangraphs and while it's real unfair to judge something like that now, there are a couple things to note.
- Usually if you are getting screwed with WAR it's because they hate your fielding too much. 40 games of fielding information is like a couple weeks of hitting at best. Way too variable to be certain of. While they don't like Moore's fielding its not driving this bus.
- WAR is a playing time dependent stat so the other guys that are up there are mostly every day players. The fact that Moore can be 4th worst in 1/3rd of the at bats of these guys is pretty depressive (that's the opposite of impressive, right?)
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Oh Bryce
You silly kid. Some guys you put at first base because they don't have the talent to play elsewhere. Other you put at first base because you don't have room for them elsewhere. And a select few play first base because if you put them in a position where they can run into walls at full speed they'll do it. I'm not saying Bryce should play first now, but there's something to be said about keeping this kid healthy and "lucite box with holes punched in it" is still not an official position.
Otherwise good start. ZNN was fantastic again. Ok there was a lot of stranded runners again (you aren't going to scatter hits forever) but once again he had no walks and only 4 3-ball counts (Fun Fact #1 : he gave up a hit in each one saying to me - I'd rather throw a meatball than give up a walk. Not the best 3-ball approach but if it's what's keeping him not walking people in general throw them meatballs. Fun Fact #2 : ZNN has only gone 3-0 toone five batters this season. That's a commitment to throwing strikes. Was better when I thought it was 1 though)
The offense was more timely than impressive, taking advantage of another team's errors for once, but whatever. They win.
Tonight it's Kershaw vs Haren. Haren's pitched better lately but around that quality Atlanta game was a couple of outings that were as much luck as good pitching. Last game, to me, looked like a Tiger crushing that just never quite came together in time. So we'll see. The Dodgers aren't a particularly good offensive team but they've been hotter recently. Kershaw of course is Kershaw and we'll see if the Nats can scratch out a couple or catch him on a bad day.
Otherwise good start. ZNN was fantastic again. Ok there was a lot of stranded runners again (you aren't going to scatter hits forever) but once again he had no walks and only 4 3-ball counts (Fun Fact #1 : he gave up a hit in each one saying to me - I'd rather throw a meatball than give up a walk. Not the best 3-ball approach but if it's what's keeping him not walking people in general throw them meatballs. Fun Fact #2 : ZNN has only gone 3-0 to
The offense was more timely than impressive, taking advantage of another team's errors for once, but whatever. They win.
Tonight it's Kershaw vs Haren. Haren's pitched better lately but around that quality Atlanta game was a couple of outings that were as much luck as good pitching. Last game, to me, looked like a Tiger crushing that just never quite came together in time. So we'll see. The Dodgers aren't a particularly good offensive team but they've been hotter recently. Kershaw of course is Kershaw and we'll see if the Nats can scratch out a couple or catch him on a bad day.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Monday Quickie
Strasburg is dealing with a moving target right now. Remember how it was the first inning that was Strasburg's issue? Then that cleared up so everyone moved onto first batter of an inning? And that wasn't an issue yesterday so it is now composure after an error is made? I'm going to guess next start, he loses 3-2, he's fine after two errors are made but he gives up 2 homeruns so now THAT'S the issue with him.
Everyone expects him to be great so if he's good, that's not good enough, and if he's not good like on Saturday, it's the most terrible thing in the world. It's unfair. It's also the life of an ace pitcher. He reminds me a lot of Zack Greinke. Zack had a breakout year in 2009, and since 2010 he's been the 8th most valuable pitcher in regards to WAR. We can quibble about one thing or another but he's pitched like a #1 but thanks to a little bad luck, a couple bad teams, and an attitude that doesn't mesh with what we expect from our ballplayers he's not seen in the same light as some of his contemporaries (at least by the fans).
Strasburg didn't sign a big contract. He's not the veteran arm. He's not the only young important player struggling. Yet he's the guy getting singled out. You want to be the best this is how you are going to get treated.
Part of me thinks though this is a smokescreen to cover up the fact that even though they are in the worst division in baseball the Nats still are only 3 games over .500. That's right worst division in baseball. Oh ok, the AL West is giving them a run for their money but here is how each place team ranks by winning percentage against their counterparts in other divisions.
Braves .568 - 6th out of 6
Nats .541 - 5th out of 6
Phillies .462 - 6th out of 6
Mets .412 - 5th out of 6
Marlins .289 - 5th out of 6
The Marlins might be the worst team in the majors. The Mets pitching behind Matt Harvey is terrible (their 2nd best starter has a 4.63 ERA). The Phillies offense looks every bit as old as you expected. And the Braves offense has moved past the crazy Justin Upton start but is not yet over the terrible BJ Upton one.
And yet here the Nats are, presumptive 100 win team and World Series favorite, just better than middling. Thank god for the AL Central (5-0 vs Sox and Tigers), am I right?
The Nats have scored 2 or fewer runs in 18 of 37 games. 18! The only team worse is the Marlins. You don't win those games. It's not one thing its everything. Some of it is timing. Bryce is super hot? LaRoche can't hit. LaRoche starts hitting? Bryce slumps (really - .107 / .235 / .214 over the past 2 weeks - that's how hot he was that his stats still look good). Some of it is injuries. They had injuries last year, but the bench has gone from best to worst. Werth is presumably slowed again by injuries, bad since mid April and now out. Some of it is just bad hitting. Danny still hasn't found his stride and Span and Suzuki have been just as bad for roughly a month, cooling down fast after hot starts.
The short answer though is they don't walk enough not to hit. When they don't hit they don't get on base and when they hit the occasional XBH (their power is still ok) there's no one on base to come home. They are perfectly ok with RISP (6th in the NL in OPS) but they never get the chance to have these at bats (dead last in the NL in PAs with RISP). The team needs to start hitting better because they don't have the type of player that will work a lot of walks, nor do they inclination to teach patience.
7-3 for May which is still good but it's also exactly where I pegged them to be, except they'd be coming off a sweep of the Cubs. Predicted 6-4 for this away trip. Let's see what happens. A few quick losses and this could get ugly fast.
Everyone expects him to be great so if he's good, that's not good enough, and if he's not good like on Saturday, it's the most terrible thing in the world. It's unfair. It's also the life of an ace pitcher. He reminds me a lot of Zack Greinke. Zack had a breakout year in 2009, and since 2010 he's been the 8th most valuable pitcher in regards to WAR. We can quibble about one thing or another but he's pitched like a #1 but thanks to a little bad luck, a couple bad teams, and an attitude that doesn't mesh with what we expect from our ballplayers he's not seen in the same light as some of his contemporaries (at least by the fans).
Strasburg didn't sign a big contract. He's not the veteran arm. He's not the only young important player struggling. Yet he's the guy getting singled out. You want to be the best this is how you are going to get treated.
Part of me thinks though this is a smokescreen to cover up the fact that even though they are in the worst division in baseball the Nats still are only 3 games over .500. That's right worst division in baseball. Oh ok, the AL West is giving them a run for their money but here is how each place team ranks by winning percentage against their counterparts in other divisions.
Braves .568 - 6th out of 6
Nats .541 - 5th out of 6
Phillies .462 - 6th out of 6
Mets .412 - 5th out of 6
Marlins .289 - 5th out of 6
The Marlins might be the worst team in the majors. The Mets pitching behind Matt Harvey is terrible (their 2nd best starter has a 4.63 ERA). The Phillies offense looks every bit as old as you expected. And the Braves offense has moved past the crazy Justin Upton start but is not yet over the terrible BJ Upton one.
And yet here the Nats are, presumptive 100 win team and World Series favorite, just better than middling. Thank god for the AL Central (5-0 vs Sox and Tigers), am I right?
The Nats have scored 2 or fewer runs in 18 of 37 games. 18! The only team worse is the Marlins. You don't win those games. It's not one thing its everything. Some of it is timing. Bryce is super hot? LaRoche can't hit. LaRoche starts hitting? Bryce slumps (really - .107 / .235 / .214 over the past 2 weeks - that's how hot he was that his stats still look good). Some of it is injuries. They had injuries last year, but the bench has gone from best to worst. Werth is presumably slowed again by injuries, bad since mid April and now out. Some of it is just bad hitting. Danny still hasn't found his stride and Span and Suzuki have been just as bad for roughly a month, cooling down fast after hot starts.
The short answer though is they don't walk enough not to hit. When they don't hit they don't get on base and when they hit the occasional XBH (their power is still ok) there's no one on base to come home. They are perfectly ok with RISP (6th in the NL in OPS) but they never get the chance to have these at bats (dead last in the NL in PAs with RISP). The team needs to start hitting better because they don't have the type of player that will work a lot of walks, nor do they inclination to teach patience.
7-3 for May which is still good but it's also exactly where I pegged them to be, except they'd be coming off a sweep of the Cubs. Predicted 6-4 for this away trip. Let's see what happens. A few quick losses and this could get ugly fast.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Sick!
that's me.
Dan Haren pitched goo... wel... fai... Look, he won all right. He got hit pretty hard. Lots of line drives and deep flyballs. But he got the win so concerns can be pushed back another start. I personally don't think he's getting better, but then again I don't think he's an unsalvageable mess. He's a 5th starter nominally and in talent right now.
6-1 so far in May, a very nice leg up on the hoped for 17-11. That was factoring in a sweep vs the Cubs so we'll see if the Nats can keep it up and get those "Look out. Here comes the Nats!" stories going.
The Nats are only 2 games behind the Braves and the Braves had their hot start (12-1) BUT they also had a longer but not quite as definitive cold streak too (5-11). So it's not like they have been awesome and the Nats have kept pace. They're back to where they should be.
While it's nice to say the Nats have gotten it together and got their chemistry going in this recent 9-4 stretch but take note that they are 5-2 in one and two run games. In other words, things are breaking for the Nats (and it's not like they had bad luck before - it was more neutral). Think that's a sign of chemistry? Everyone said last years Nats were some sort of chemistry perfection. Last years Nats were 6 games over in one-run games for the season (about in line with their W-L percentage) . This year's Nats are already 4 games over. Not saying the Nats are going to regress back to April's W-L pattern. I am saying if they want the last 13 games to continue they need to start hitting better because they won't win close games like this all year long.
Dan Haren pitched goo... wel... fai... Look, he won all right. He got hit pretty hard. Lots of line drives and deep flyballs. But he got the win so concerns can be pushed back another start. I personally don't think he's getting better, but then again I don't think he's an unsalvageable mess. He's a 5th starter nominally and in talent right now.
6-1 so far in May, a very nice leg up on the hoped for 17-11. That was factoring in a sweep vs the Cubs so we'll see if the Nats can keep it up and get those "Look out. Here comes the Nats!" stories going.
The Nats are only 2 games behind the Braves and the Braves had their hot start (12-1) BUT they also had a longer but not quite as definitive cold streak too (5-11). So it's not like they have been awesome and the Nats have kept pace. They're back to where they should be.
While it's nice to say the Nats have gotten it together and got their chemistry going in this recent 9-4 stretch but take note that they are 5-2 in one and two run games. In other words, things are breaking for the Nats (and it's not like they had bad luck before - it was more neutral). Think that's a sign of chemistry? Everyone said last years Nats were some sort of chemistry perfection. Last years Nats were 6 games over in one-run games for the season (about in line with their W-L percentage) . This year's Nats are already 4 games over. Not saying the Nats are going to regress back to April's W-L pattern. I am saying if they want the last 13 games to continue they need to start hitting better because they won't win close games like this all year long.
Thursday, May 09, 2013
Get excited about ZNN, just not too excited, but still pretty excited
Jordan Zimmermann went out last night and pitched another masterpiece. He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any start (and he only did that once) and his ERA sunk ever closer to 1.50. Is he the ace of the Nats staff? So far in 2013, (in about a 6th of the season) there is no question. Will he remain the ace of the staff? Ehhhhh
Let's go through the fancy numbers! (I know you don't think this allows for growth but it does. Guys can get better. It's just that they rarely get THAT much better overnight and a lot of times they are helped by out-of-whack luck on things they don't have much control over. Remember how we did this with Detwiler? Remember how he had a 0.90 ERA in his first 3 starts and we said it couldn't last and then in his next 3 starts he had an ERA of 4.50? That's why you need to pay attention here)
The Ranges - stats that can vary by pitcher but fall within a typical range.
BABIP (ranges between .250 - .325)
Career: .287 Last year: .288 This year : .209
Sorry, right here is a big reason ZNN is among the best pitchers in the NL right now. This early in the year, this is usually all it takes. Find a surprisingly low ERA and there is usually a surprisingly, and unsustainably, low BABIP behind it. Don't believe me? Jason Marquis has a 3.50 ERA and is 4-2. His BABIP is .223. This is going up.
HR/FB (6%-13%)
Career: 9.0% Last year: 9.2% This year: 4.9%
Jordan has always been decent at keeping balls in the park. As you'll see below he's pitching in a way that we'd expect fewer homers. Still, 5% is too low. This will also rise.
LOB% (66%-80%)
Career: 75.4% Last year: 79.3% This year: 84.6%
Hey a pattern! Luck going completely for ZNN in a way that just can't be kept up.
You might be saying, "why can't these things be kept up?". Well, I can't give you a specific physical reason. What I can tell you is that the entire history of baseball featuring thousands of pitchers tells us a story. It tells us that outside of singular fluke years, the ranges fall where the ranges fall. Like take BABIP. The lowest pitcher in the history of the game with 1000 IP has a career BABIP of .240, the highest .330. That .240 (and those around it) are from a different era. Since the strike? It's .262 and it's Mariano Rivera. Unless you think ZNN is possibly the greatest pitcher of all time you can't believe he will keep these numbers up.
But that doesn't mean he's not pitching well or getting better. Let's now look at the personal fancy stats
The personal stats - is he getting better?
GB%
Career : 43.2% Last Year : 43.4% This Year : 50.3%
ZNN in the past has been more of a flyball pitcher. Flyball pitchers tend to live and die by the strike out and the walk because flyballs will become home runs, and you have to make sure you don't have runners on base when that happens. Groundball pitchers have a little more leeway. ZNN this year has been a pretty solid GB pitcher.
K/9, BB/9
Career 7.30 / 2.07 Last Year : 7.04 / 1.98 This year : 6.00 / 1.59
He's also walking fewer people. While you don't want to see a drop in Ks the drop in walks is actually a bigger drop percentage wise (20% to 15%) and more important as he's moved from being a flyball guy to a ground ball guy so a drop in Ks matters less.
Pitch F/X data suggests that this isn't just fluky early season data. ZNN is pitching differently. Yes, more change-ups, but also more fastballs and fewer sliders. A better mix of offspeed stuff and more reliance on a top-notch fastball.
While the pitch effectiveness of the curve and the change remains mediocre the movement has improved on each. (thanks to brooksbaseball.net for the graphs)
Let's go through the fancy numbers! (I know you don't think this allows for growth but it does. Guys can get better. It's just that they rarely get THAT much better overnight and a lot of times they are helped by out-of-whack luck on things they don't have much control over. Remember how we did this with Detwiler? Remember how he had a 0.90 ERA in his first 3 starts and we said it couldn't last and then in his next 3 starts he had an ERA of 4.50? That's why you need to pay attention here)
The Ranges - stats that can vary by pitcher but fall within a typical range.
BABIP (ranges between .250 - .325)
Career: .287 Last year: .288 This year : .209
Sorry, right here is a big reason ZNN is among the best pitchers in the NL right now. This early in the year, this is usually all it takes. Find a surprisingly low ERA and there is usually a surprisingly, and unsustainably, low BABIP behind it. Don't believe me? Jason Marquis has a 3.50 ERA and is 4-2. His BABIP is .223. This is going up.
HR/FB (6%-13%)
Career: 9.0% Last year: 9.2% This year: 4.9%
Jordan has always been decent at keeping balls in the park. As you'll see below he's pitching in a way that we'd expect fewer homers. Still, 5% is too low. This will also rise.
LOB% (66%-80%)
Career: 75.4% Last year: 79.3% This year: 84.6%
Hey a pattern! Luck going completely for ZNN in a way that just can't be kept up.
You might be saying, "why can't these things be kept up?". Well, I can't give you a specific physical reason. What I can tell you is that the entire history of baseball featuring thousands of pitchers tells us a story. It tells us that outside of singular fluke years, the ranges fall where the ranges fall. Like take BABIP. The lowest pitcher in the history of the game with 1000 IP has a career BABIP of .240, the highest .330. That .240 (and those around it) are from a different era. Since the strike? It's .262 and it's Mariano Rivera. Unless you think ZNN is possibly the greatest pitcher of all time you can't believe he will keep these numbers up.
But that doesn't mean he's not pitching well or getting better. Let's now look at the personal fancy stats
The personal stats - is he getting better?
GB%
Career : 43.2% Last Year : 43.4% This Year : 50.3%
ZNN in the past has been more of a flyball pitcher. Flyball pitchers tend to live and die by the strike out and the walk because flyballs will become home runs, and you have to make sure you don't have runners on base when that happens. Groundball pitchers have a little more leeway. ZNN this year has been a pretty solid GB pitcher.
K/9, BB/9
Career 7.30 / 2.07 Last Year : 7.04 / 1.98 This year : 6.00 / 1.59
He's also walking fewer people. While you don't want to see a drop in Ks the drop in walks is actually a bigger drop percentage wise (20% to 15%) and more important as he's moved from being a flyball guy to a ground ball guy so a drop in Ks matters less.
Pitch F/X data suggests that this isn't just fluky early season data. ZNN is pitching differently. Yes, more change-ups, but also more fastballs and fewer sliders. A better mix of offspeed stuff and more reliance on a top-notch fastball.
While the pitch effectiveness of the curve and the change remains mediocre the movement has improved on each. (thanks to brooksbaseball.net for the graphs)
And the whiffs on each pitch have increased dramatically.
So while it's likely that his biggest mistakes are still with these pitches (which would explain the mediocre pitch effectiveness) they are doing their jobs overall. They are keeping the hitters off balance so that the he can finish them off with weak contact on the fastball.
You see, before 2013 ZNN would try to finish off hitters with an off-speed pitch. Despite being only 23% of his total pitches, the slider accounted for 30+% of his strikeouts. The same thing was seen with the curve, about 12% of his pitches, but 17% of the strikeouts. Meanwhile with the fastball, you saw the opposite. He threw it over 60% of the time but it was only the "outcome" pitch (pitch where the AB ended) around 55% of the time and the K pitch around 50%.
In 2013 things have flipped. It's a little early to be sure if he's laying off the curve (he doesn't throw it that often) but the slider K percentage is down to 21%. The fastball has been thrown more (68% of the time) and its use as the outcome pitch has jumped dramatically (69%) as well as the K pitch (55%.)
This may not seem like much but there's a definite change here. The fastball,which is arguably his best pitch, is more entrenched as his out pitch. Which is as it should be.
Anyway, wrapping this all up what does this mean? It means that even though ZNN has gotten lucky, will experience some regression and is not likely to be in the Cy Young conversation at year's end, he is pitching better. He is throwing like a low-level #1 which, if Strasburg can pitch to his talent and Gio can pitch like last year, would give the Nats a 1-3 as good as anyone has had in a while.
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