Nationals Baseball

Friday, June 15, 2018

Weekend placeholder - Am I negative? no, it is the children who are wrong.

Just giving a  fresh place to comment on this weekends games really.

From the comments - On Hellickson and Strasburg -

What do I THINK will happen? I think Hellickson will be out for a week or two. That's it. I'm very leery about Strasburg pitching much more this year because I'm very leery about shoulder stuff.

Of course it's been pointed out that I am a negative Nelly when it comes to pitcher injuries and even I know what I say above is a pessimistic take. As a soulless automaton, I'm generally fair. Sometimes I think good things, sometimes bad things, usually they are right, sometimes they are wrong. I talk about bad things more but that's just because they are more interesting to talk about, because there's not only the issue to talk about but what to do about it. Anyone here want to be on a third blog piece about "Tanner Roark has pitched well this year as expected. Fin."? Yawn.

But nope I'm not being fair to Strasburg. I DO think he'll be out until after the All-Star Break but that's more about timing than anything. Let's say they are cautious, which seems reasonable, and rest him for say three more starts. That puts him starting again around the 4th or so, about 2 1/2 weeks off. That could mean three starts before the break or it could be two (starting on the 5th is the cut-off). Let's say he starts on the 7th so a full 3 weeks off. He'd pitch the 7th, pitch the 12th and then... maybe the 20th?  You are getting him back only to force him into another awkward rest period very soon after. It just makes sense to keep him on the shelf until after*

But that's not about being hurt, like I said, that's timing. So after that he could pitch the whole rest of the year fine and there's no reason right now to not think that would happen. The fairest take is - he;ll probably be back right after the ASB and if he's pitching, he's probably ok. We'll have to keep a close eye on those first couple starts but you'd assume he's ready to go the rest of the season.

On the overall negativity - well look at Ross, look at Glover. Pitchers reguarly get hurt and stay hurt for a long time. It's not THAT crazy to believe that may happen to a Nats starter we care about. I WAS worried about Max a couple years ago with his bad start but looking back (the good thing about blogs is I can actually check what I said) my main thrust was "Max is probably going to only be real good, potentially win a Cy Young good, but not overly dominant #1 pitcher in NL great" I was wrong but given that we'd only seen dominance for one year I think that was a fair take at the time. And it's kind of similar with Strasburg. When he went out I said first "I told you so" because I harped on the fact he hadn't pitched to end 2016 so it was fair to expect some injury from the guy that always gets hurt.  Then I said he'd be back in a month if it was like 2016, but worst case would be another TJ. Instead Nats got a best case - he was back in 2 1/2 weeks or so. Then I said "Ok. Gotta trust he'll finish up year. Cross your fingers"  That's not exactly THAT negative. So I'm holding my ground here. I'm not overly negative in my expectations.

I will say that while I give a fair shake, I usually then present the worst case but not the best case. So I guess I'll try to do that as well. 

So Strasburg's best case, which I still didn't mention, is that he's back sometime in the first five games of the next homestand and he keeps pitching as he has this year - which is very good.


*unless he can come back pretty much as soon as they are back from the road trip, but I don't see the cautious Nats doing that. Nor does anything we hear suggest that he's going to jump back in the rotation soon.

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Breather

Another day, another team held to 4 or less by the Nats pitching staff. Fedde wasn't great but he managed to not be terrible and the bullpen of Miller, Madson, and Doolittle, plus whoever else is necessary finished the job. A couple scares here and there but the job got gotten done. The Nats offense, or more accurately Juan Soto, plated 5 runs and the Nats were able to get out of New York splitting the series.

One thing we have maybe only skirted at mentioning, what if the Nats don't win the NL East? I think we all just assume "well they'll have the Wild Card".  Will they? Currently the answer is Yes but only by a half-game. The Brewers, Braves, and Diamondbacks would take the titles and the Cubs (+2) and Nats would be the Wild Card game* The Cardinals though, sit only a half-game back of the Nats, the Phillies 2 games behind and the Dodgers 3.  Having teams fall into haves and have-nots so clearly means there is going to be a bunch of teams all crammed together at the top. This has all the makings for 1-2 90+ win teams to be shut out of the playoffs.

For a team used to cruising this year will almost certainly be different. How used to cruising are the Nats? Well at this point last year - the ideal year - the Nats were up 9.5 games.  They'd "fall to 7.5 by July 1st but that would be the low point from here on out. In 2016, they'd be up 5.  They'd go on their worst stretch of the year in a couple of days and be only up by 2 on the 25th but that would be the low point. There'd be one more minor scare - the lead would go to 4 going into August, but pretty much smooth sailing. In 2012 they'd be up 5. This was a more contested year** and the Braves would stick around through August but would never get closer than 2 games and would spend most of that time 3-4 games out. They'd close just enough at the end to make you think about it, but not worry.

Only 2014 wasn't decided by this point in hindsight. The Nats were tied at this moment, at a middling 35-32 and would take some small leads and fall into second here and there. It wasn't until August where the Nats would first separate a little as the Braves crashed then run off 10 in a row and 12 of 13 to put it out of reach.

Oh the non-playoffs seasons? The 2013 would already be 5.5 behind and would only breifly climb to 5 games back. 2015 Nats would be back by just a half a game. They would take a lead of as much as 4.5 games on July 4th before losing it getting swept at CitiField to start August. They'd collapse after that.

So historically the question is - is this a 2014, where the Nats would fight and then cruise, or 2015 where the Nats would fight then crash? Or is it something different entirely - a season where the Nats fight to the end?

Notes

Soto I said I'd talk about later - end of June. But it's obvious he (1) can hit major league fastballs, and (2) understands the strike zone. Working him away doesn't work either. I imagine he'll start seeing a lot of in the zone junk or maybe a concentrated effort to work up or down, but so far they haven't found a hole

Murphy looks unplayable. The swing isn't terrible but they were right - he seems ok sprinting but hobbles in a jog. That can't be good and I would not trust him at all in the field when moving over a few steps at a moderate speed is a requirement.

The day off helps the Nats avoid answering the Strasburg/Hellickson question for the time being. It's Gio Max and Tanner for the next three starting tomorrow, so it's not until Monday the 18th where someone has to be ready. Currently they are both on double secret injury probation - aka 10-Day DL with indefinite descriptions of the severity of their ailments. If one is out that's survivable. Strasburg would hurt more obviously. It's not only the talent but Hellickson is a limited innings pitcher so he doesn't do much to protect the pen. Strasburg can. If two are out though the Nats are dipping into their very shallow SP depth. That's not only bad for those games but bad overall as Gio isn't a gimme to go deep even when pitching well. You can't rely on Max going 8 and resetting the pen every go through for the next month.

Commenter Bx called me out on Trea and yes, he could be a star. Yesterday was about at the plate and when I said it's looking like Trea won't be a star I mean there. It doesn't look like he'll hit well over .300 and develop ~20 homer power, which I'm sure was running through heads about 21 months ago. But can he be a little better than last year? .280-.290 with 15+ homers and some patience? Sure! And if he does that because he can field and run he'd be an arguable star player. He won't compare well with his peers but we are in a strange super SS period in baseball where if Trea manages to be the 5th-7th best SS he's still putting out star production.

Of course watching last nights game showed you the difference between an elite fielding SS and Trea who's pretty good. That play by Didi in late innings was the 2nd place "Wow" moment of the game (after Soto's BOMB).  Here's Didi's play.  Trea's not doing that. Here's Soto's BOMB. Trea's not hitting that. Of course no one is asking him to.


Here we go. 30+ in 31 days leading up to the All-Star Break.


*I already hate this Joe Maddon filled scenario with all my heart and it is not real. 

**The Braves would essentially mirror the Nats for the next two months. The Nats went 15-16 for an extended stretch, but only lost 2.5 games to the Braves. The Nats would then go 17-4 and somehow only pick up 2 games!

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Offense is Offensive

Last year the Nationals offense was great. They scored 5.06 runs per game which was just under the Rockies (5.09) and just ahead of the Diamonbacks (5.01) two teams that played in offensively minded parks. They were up there with the Cubs (5.07) like 5% better than the next best team in a normal park (the Marlins at 4.80).  For a long time the Nats had been very good, but had peaked as "the best of the rest". Last year they truly were one of the best

This year they Nats sit at 4.26 runs per game. This is 8th in the NL and below average*.  What has happened? They were ok in April and May. Not great but their usual up around 5th/6th and above average. But the bottom has fallen out in June, they are hitting an anemic .198 / .268 / .297 in June, with an OPS that sits at 13th in the NL for the month with a cavern between them and 12th place (.565 to .643).

Alot of the blame has fallen on Bryce but the truth is nearly every planned starter has had an issue this year.

C: Wieters : Didn't underperform but we were expecting below average and he delivered.  Then he got hurt

1B : Zimmerman : Was awful then got hurt and disappeared from the face of the Earth outside of Capitals playoff games.

2B : Murphy was not ready to start the season. Kendrick who became Plan A, hit ok in his place but got injured.

SS : Turner (June : .175 / .214 / .250) has not only not become the star the Nats were hoping for after that incredible end to 2016, he's been decidedly average since then. He put up a modest .284 / .338 / .451 line last year and the hope was it was injury recovery that held him back.  .254 / .338 / .385 this year suggests not.

3B : Rendon (June : .194 / .256 / .250) is supposed to be a lynch pin to this squad. A guy hitting .280+ with good power and great in the field. He got hurt early but he's been back for a month and is struggling to be impactful at the plate

RF : Bryce (June : .188 / .297 / .281) has slumped noticeably, which highlights how well he had been doing before despite the low average to still be a well above average bat for 2018 overall. However, "well above average" isn't what the Nats expect. They expect "star". 

CF : Taylor (June : .333 / .400 / .556 !) had an incredibly bad start to the year. So much that the week and a half of June games hasn't gotten him anywhere near average. It was hoped that the 2017 season and the playoffs were a turning point but more likely they were a fluke of BABIP.

LF : Eaton (June : .250 / .333 / .250 in 2 games mind you) was injured almost immediately. His numbers for the season look good but he's had as many PAs in 2018 as a whole as Trea Turner has had in June.

Now the Nats lucked out in a lot of places at least for a while. Kendrick did well forced into starting duty. Zimmerman was replaced mostly by Adams (June : .267 / .267 / .533) who has been a lifesaver, and Reynolds (June : .143 / .217 / .143) who was effective early in his limited role. Soto (June : .320 / .452 / .600) has arguably started a ROY campaign despite being called up just a month ago. This has helped kept the Nats afloat. But as these guys cooled off or got hurt themselves the solutions not found for injured players stopped being hidden. Pedro Severino (June : .053 / .143 / .053)  took over. I say this again because you guys don't ever seem to get this - Severino is not a major league catcher. He cannot hit at the major league level. Not that he's below average but that he's terrible enough that you can't play him everyday. If you want to be generous, not now, but very likely not ever. Wilmer Difo was forced to play every day after Kendrick went out (June : .182 / .206 / .303) and looks every bit the last player on the bench we've been saying he is for four years now. A similar take can be had with the returning Goodwin (June : .000 / .154 / .000).  Sierra and Stevenson and Kieboom and Sanchez were all AAAA players who the Nats took fliers on in time of need that held no surprises.

The Nats offense is flailing. It's as if the entire team has taken a collective step back from 2017. That will happen on a player by player basis but if you take three supposed to be healthy players (Bryce, Rendon, Turner) you don't expect ALL to take steps back. And some of that (Zimm, MAT) was likely unsustainable but they shouldn't have dropped back as far as they have. Add to that the injury issues (Zimm, Murphy, Eaton, Kendrick) and the poor planning (Difo maybe, Severino definitely) and it's a perfect storm right now.

The Nats offense should get better. It is not the clear 13th best in the NL caliber it has been since the last few days in May. But can it be good enough? If the pitching maintains it's best in the NL status? Probably so. If not, and with recent starter injuries that's a bigger question than ever, then I honestly don't think so, not unless three of these guys end up on the All-Star level.

*How are they still winning games? The pitching is tops in the NL. A step above #2 Chicago and a quarter run ahead of third place at this point in the season. That's a lot!

Monday, June 11, 2018

Monday Quickie - A tale of two teams

The Nats finished what is likely to be their easiest stretch of the season* with a 12-9 record. That's pretty good, but it's also a 92-93 win pace which isn't all that impressive against this level of competition. What we've seen is a dichotomy that puts the Nats squarely as a middle of the road team, but in an unusual way.

What you hope to see is something like 2 out of every 3 against bad teams and .500 versus good teams. It'll differ home and away and when you catch these guys, but in general this is a good goal to have. If you catch the same number of games against good teams and bad teams** you'll win at like a .584 pace or 94-95 wins. That's enough to win a division. How did the Nats do? Well look at this stretch.

The Nats won 2 of 3 from the Padres, then swept the Marlins, Orioles, and two from Tampa. That's a 10-1 record against the worst teams they played. This is far better than the 2 out of 3 you aim for. That would have been 8-3 or 7-4. The Nats against bad teams look every bit the dominant team they have for the past half-decade

The Nats got swept by the Dodgers, took only 1 of 4 in Atlanta, then lost a series at home to the Giants. These are the three best teams the Nats faced and they went 2-8 against them. That's nowhere near the 5-5 you would hope for. The Nats against good teams look every bit the also ran.

If you're looking for a bright side here it's that for the season as a whole the "dominate bad teams" holds up. Won another series versus the Padres. Beat up Cincy to start year. Meanwhile the "also ran vs good teams" is less consistent. They swept a decent Pittsburgh squad and NL West leading D-backs.***  So there seems to be a path to where they should be.

Which brings us to the next stretch. They'll start with two in NY against the Yankees with rest on either side of the NY games. Then starting with Toronto they'll play 30.3 games in 31 days. It's a killer run that will test this team in a way they haven't been tested all year and with both Hellickson and Strasburg having issues this could easily be a time frame that breaks what has become a solid pen, at least until they can pause and regroup at the All-Star Break. We will break it up into the games before that precious day off on the 27th and games after.

They have five games away, two versus the Yankees and 3 against the Blue Jays. 2-3 would be a decent goal here. Then they go home to finish up the Yankees suspended game and play the other rained out game. That's followed by 3 against the O's and three against the Phillies. Split the Yankee games win both other series. That's 5-3. Before shooting down for a two game set against Tampa. We'll say a split there for now. That's an 8-7 expectation, with 9-6 as a goal and 7-8 as the floor.

What's the competition up to?

ATL : v NYM (2), v SDP (4), @TOR (2), v BAL, v CIN
PHI :  v COL, @ MIL, v STL, @WSN, v NYY

Atlanta's been treading water for a few weeks, but that's a potential cake walk for the Braves. You could see them going 11-3 and something like 9-5 should be their floor. If the Braves do that and the Nats do 8-7, the Nats only drop a game and a half behind. That's fine. If the Braves streak and the Nats stumble to like 6-9. That's a 5.5 game lead for Atlanta in the blink of an eye. 

This is Philly's tough stretch, which you could argue they've been in for a month now, and they have suffered for it. 8-14 over the long haul and 3-8 recently. If they can survive this run they'll have a chance to make a push with an easy group of games that surround the All-Star Break. However you look at this and I see 6-9. They do that and if the Nats and Braves do what I expect they'd be 5 games behind the Nats and 6.5 behind the Braves.  That's a problem. They almost have to defy expectations right now to stay in the division hunt.

We have a moment of calm now. Two games against the Yankees where if the Nats take one, which it more than possible, it's a good set. Rest on either side. Get ready. Enjoy these games, then prepare to dive headlong into the month that could this team.


*Now that the Mets are dying it's likely there will be a couple more easy stretches. However, this is also true for the Braves and Phillies. It'll have less effect on Atlanta, than Philly. The Braves have loaded up on Mets games (10) the Phillies have barely played them (4). Nats are at 6 

**This sounds like it should happen but a lot depends on your own division and interleague. The Nats, as we've mentioned in the past, have feasted on a weak NL East for years.  

*** Though the Dbacks are schizophrenic this year.  21-8 to start year, 5-18 next (this is where the Nats came in), 9-3 up to today. So what does winning over them during that 5-18 stretch really mean? Don't know.

Friday, June 08, 2018

Justin Miller - the reliever the Nats have been waiting for?

Every team that rolls deep into the playoffs seem to have that guy. The guy in the pen who can just come in and smoke through 3 guys when called upon. The young gun throwing 100MPH fastballs by guys be it to shut down the opponent before the regular back end comes in or to win an epic battle against the other team's star*.  This guy can be wild but the guy is unhittable if he's on.

The Nats have never really had that. Enny Romero could dial it up but was way too hittable. Shawn Kelley was almost that but didn't quite have the fastball and at the most crucial moment his arm died and it's never come back. Christian Garcia had that potential but rather than ride his arm until it broke the Nats decided to try to make him into a starter... and his arm broke anyway. Storen could have been that but was nearly immediately promoted to closer and then a million other things happened. Barrett? Too hittable. Clippard? Not dominating in that power way. But with Justin Miller the Nats might have found their man.

Now the funny thing is, Justin isn't quite this guy if you look at what he's done. He's not fast enough to throw a bunch of 100MPH fastballs by guy. He sits regularly in the mid 90s and there's just the expectation that he will be able to up that a few MPH based on his history. Guys aren't swinging through strikes but rather he's fooling guys to swing at more balls and those are the pitches they are missing. He's not a young buck throwing his arm out but a 31 year old reclamation project.

But what we are talking about here are feelings, and Justin feels like that type of pitcher. He does rely VERY heavily on the fastball - throwing it 2/3rds to 3/4 of the time. He is a big time strike out pitcher with control issues both in his past and possibly now. His minor league career shows flashes of being unhittable. 

Relievers are fungible. We say that a lot but we often don't dig into what it means. It's a statement about the replace-ability of relievers but based in the variability of them. They pitch such a relatively few innings that you should be able to find ones that work out for 40-50 innings in a year. Guys who might be 4.00 pitchers who throw 3.30 up for that time frame. The Nats have. As much as you may hate their scrimping and saving when it comes to relief the Nats have often had good to very good pens since 2012. But while the Nats have figured that right they've never really gotten the benefit of that variability while suffering the downsides. They've had it all kind of fall apart, but they haven't really seen it all come together.  2012 was close as the pen didn't have a bad arm, but it wasn't dominating. 2014 was close with peak Clippard and Storen, but a dead offense at the end meant what was actually a maybe great pen performance in the NLDS is remembered as a complete failure. 2016 was close, but it took the trade for Melancon to make it that way and the pen would do themselves in unable to hold games 3 and 5 in the NLDS.

Ultimately the playoffs, if they get there, is what will define the pen. But right now they are closing in on having a complete pen with a dominant closer, a strong set-up and maybe that middle reliever you believe can walk on water when necessary with the bulk of the season to go. That's something they haven't had. Maybe having it so early, getting it defined so early, will make it stick come October. That's the hope anyway.


*Or lose it - see Strickland, Hunter.

Thursday, June 07, 2018

Looks like a real team to me

Giants are slightly better? I don't know. Win at least 2 of 3 and start the next part of the season on a high note.

The comments erupted into a Michael A Taylor discussion so I figured I'd take that on as he has been hot basically ever since Brian Goodwin became available to replace him.

First off, regardless of how you feel about his bat, understand that MAT, or someone that fields like him, is necessary. Let's look at right now. Bryce who is manning RF doesn't seem to put defense as a priority. He's never been flat out bad but he never repeated what looked like a decent OF performance when he first came up. Now he is playing at a lower level. Is it age? Injury? Contract? Who knows but right now he's a negative. Juan Soto appears to be the rare prospect who maybe actually should have been kept down to work on his fielding*. There was talk about him playing solid defense as he got more time in the OF, but that appears to be wishful thinking based on raw talent, as opposed to anything actually seen. At best he might mature into an average fielding LF with an average arm. At worst he might age into some weird fast DH role. Today though he's not good. Matt Adams, who was manning the OF a lot before Ryan Zimmerman went down, and could do so in the future, is not an OF.

The future could be brighter but there's a lot of questions about that too. Adam Eaton, who you expect to play in the Nats OF the next couple years if he doesn't fall apart, has shown he's not a CF. He has been as could still be a pretty good corner OF, though it remains to be seen what the injuries do to him. It's better to project him as average and let him surprise. Brian Goodwin, who presumably has defensive talent, has never shown it consistently at the major league level and is well into his late 20s. Victor Robles is a real defensive talent but it remains to be seen what his major injury, incurred while fielding, does to his approach.

The Nats have one plus outfielder in hand. It's MAT. And if you are going to potentially have two negative fielders in the corners with 2018 Soto and 2018 Bryce, a third negative fielder would create some real problems.**

So it would be real helpful if MAT hit but here is the problem

 OPS+
2014: 75
2015: 73
2016: 70
2017: 105
2018: 76

One of these things is not like the other. One of these things seems like a fluke.If we look deeper

ISOSLG
2014: .154
2015: .129
2016: .145
2017: .216
2018: .163

BBRATE
2014: 7.0%
2015: 6.8%
2016: 5.9%
2017: 6.7%
2018: 8.3%

KRATE
2014: 39.5%
2015: 30.9%
2016: 32.5%
2017: 31.7%
2018: 29.3%

BABIP
2014: .333
2015: .311
2016: .319
2017: .363
2018: .292

You see a a lot of consistency. I could show you hard hitting percentages  and contact percentages and swing percentages and they'd all show the same sort of thing, especially ignoring some things in that abbreviated 2014 campaign. MAT is this.

So what happened in 2017? We were hoping it was something learned but I'm starting to think it was a perfect storm. He hit the ball a little harder. He hit a lot more balls in the air*** A few more balls went out then usual. A LOT more balls went for hits than usual. It should have been his best year regardless but what should have been a season that projected to .230 25 HR season became a .270 25 HR projected season as everything found holes.

We are kind of hoping MAT would be like Ian Desmond, who found himself at 26. But Ian Desmond added one thing to his arsenal that didn't seem to be luck related. He hit he ball for a lot more power.  He went from a punch and judy hitter to a 25+ homer guy. Then he backed it up immediately. MAT already had the power, he added average and for the most part that seemed to be BABIP related. Then he showed it was probably a fluke. I'm afraid that MAT won't end up being much more than what we've seen for years now. He might luck into a season where more balls go out of the park and he's close to an average bat, but a season like last will require another perfect storm. There's only so many of those in a career.


Still I play him in CF for the foreseeable future. His bat is just dangerous enough that he can't be ignored, especially when he's hot (see now or NLDS last year) and his fielding is a true asset to the team. Get a better bat at catcher and 2B. CF isn't a problem as-is. It's a problem because other positions are problems. What does that mean for the future roster though? Well it means I want Bryce or Soto to pick up a first baseman's mitt. (or more likely it means they will watch Bryce go and it resolves itself that way). And it means he has his position until Robles can take it away, which could be early next season.
 
*Actually no - he hits too good to care.  

**We may actually get to see this in action though when Eaton comes back because how do you send Soto back right now? You can't. If he doesn't cool off the Nats may try this "all gaps" OF. 

*** his LD/GB/FB is something that has not been as consistent. Still it hasn't been inconsistent or changed dramatically enough to say something shifted last year. At least imo.

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

Standing today

14-7

Where are we on that path? Let's see 0-3, 2-1, 6-0, 1-3.... 9-7.  OK so the Nats have to sweep the Rays and Giants to stay on path.  That's a little bit of a tall order but this is the next step.  This 21 game swing basically had three parts; Play garbage teams, play the Braves, play fair teams. What we have now is mixed results. Great against the garbage, poor against the Braves. Against the fair teams is the deciding factor. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason to the Nats play so far. They helped start the Dbacks on their downswing when they were the best team in the NL and they swept the pesky Pirates out of the building. At the same time they couldn't win a game versus an injured Dodgers team in DC, and the rest of the middling NL West has owned them.

The Nats have been pretty much this team for a couple months. They've lost Kendrick and Zimmerman more recently but gained back Rendon and brought up Soto. It feels like, at least for now, this is who they have been and this is who they are. The question is - what is that? Is it a good team who is going to overtake the Braves eventually? Or a fair team who has to fight off the Phillies? Well here are two other fair teams coming into town. On home turf a good team should beat them. Maybe not a sweep but 4-1. A fair team will struggle to win these 5 games 3-2 if they are lucky, 2-3 if not.

Now of course you can't read a season by 5 games but we wouldn't be. We're adding one more set of data to what the season has led us to so far - this team, as-is, a couple starting and bench bats down, is maybe good. We're teetering between believing in them and not. And these type of borderline games help us decide. Beating up the Orioles or Marlins only tell us they aren't the worst team. If they lose those 2 in New York that only tells us they aren't maybe up there with the best. I think we already know these things. It's games like these, against the .500 teams that I'm most interested in.

ATL is on West Coast swing and PHI is taking on best part of Central. Again the schedule favored a big Nats move during this 21 game stretch. They've mostly made it but haven't finished it out. Finish it out or be finished? Nah too early for that. But finish it out.