The Nats came into this offseason clearly needing a bunch of things; a middle infielder, bullpen help, at least one starter. Notice the phrase was "at least" and not "at most" or "exactly", these things are important in coding and also, for some strange reason, running a major league baseball team. After signing Jason Marquis early, Nats fans were excited. Rizzo had months to bring in a second decent starter and then the Nats would have their best Top 3 since the magical 2005 season with a solid Livan, a surprising Loaiza and a healthy John Patterson. (Second best? Arguably 2007s' Lannan, Hill/Redding, and Bacsik combo. That's right. The Nats 2nd best Top 3 of the past 5 years is one that includes Mike Bacsik, the Everlasting Suckstobber.) Except that 2nd starter never came. (Neither did a save from a Guzman-Dunn-Willingham defense, or that last good reliever, or a pitching mentor for Strasburg. Baby wanted 12 lemons, Rizzo. - Yes, I'm quoting "The Breakup". No, you can't shame me.)
Instead we got the familiar retread parade. Batista, Estes, maybe Wang, maybe Benson. Guys who should be battling for a long relief spot to earn money for a new speedboat are instead going to go into camp looking to be the Nats #3. Disappointing to say the least.
But why did this happen? Surely it wasn't a money issue, right? FJB pointed out several reasonable pitching deals that went down this season. Why didn't the Nats fix this problem?
It could be that the Nats truly believe in... someone. I'm not sure who exactly. JD Martin is the first choice, as he did do decently in his two month audition, but he doesn't miss enough bats, and gives up too many homers. Garrett Mock has major league stuff but not major league control. Craig Stammen held down a rotation spot, but I'm not sure anyone noticed he was out there and he got injured. All these guys are 25/26 too, a bit old to expect a revelation. Maybe they love Detwiler or Martis, who at least have the benefit of youth, but if they do, they are seeing something that no one else is.
Maybe they didn't sign the second starter because they'll be going after a top-line starter hard in the next offseason. Assuming all goes to plan (and it always does, right?) the Nats have 4 out of 5 rotation spots sewn up for 2011. Lannan, Marquis, Strasburg, Zimmermann. Anyone brought in now would just be a one year rental, a place holder for that spot, so why not save that cash? Who fits the bill of who could be available? Josh Beckett (who's signing was a big part of my "Phil Dunn magical mystery tour" post that never happened), Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Javy Vazquez maybe. This would be a bit of a shocker though. Kasten has voiced a disdain for paying out top dollar, long-term deals for pitching. Plus each of these guys will be on the other side of 30 come next offseason. And if you are going to plan on getting one of these guys, that means you are willing to go all in, and seriously overpay. Offering that type of money for a batter (Teixeira) is one thing, offering it to a pitcher is another. The Nats front office has shown itself to be nothing if not... thoughtful with money. Can they be reckless for the chance at a few more wins?
It could also be that the Nats just don't care. The improvement is going to come this season. It almost HAS to. The team should have scored more runs, should have given up fewer, should have done better based on the runs they did score and give up. There has been improvement on offense, if small, and pitching. It's nearly impossible to imagine this team losing 100 games again, barring injury. So the team is going to be 5, 10, maybe 15 wins better. Maybe they figure that's enough. Maybe they aren't looking at 2011 yet, in terms of a non-Strasburg young pitcher they like or in terms of a free agent signing. Maybe they want to play out this season see how Strasburg is coming along, how Zimmerman returns from injury, and then think more about the rotation. Maybe they want to save a few bucks, because what are 2-3 more wins going to get them?
Whatever the reason the Nats continue to have a festering gaping hole starting in the middle of their rotation and continuing all the way through to the end. There is no safety net. A bad year by Lannan or Marquis, or a failure of anyone to develop, would lead to once again having a 14th, 15th, 16th best staff in the NL. For the sake of the fan's sanity, let's hope the Nats are lucky for once.
No mention of Scott Olsen? I'm guessing the team is hoping that Olsen is the #3 and then they go can go with the usual "which AAAA starter is the hottest" of Stammen, Martis, Martin, Mock and Detweiler (or maybe the return of Chico not harlan. Imagine the excitement as he makes his return from arm injury. Goosebumps right?).
ReplyDeleteI'm really hopeful for Detweiler. If Detweiler can become a solid fifth guy suddenly '11 looks solid. Marquis, Lannan, Stras, Znn, Detweiler. No lights out ace yet but a rotation that looks at least solid or better.
I'm pretty pysched about the Willy Taveras signing. The organization really needs a guy to field to the light hitting, poor plate discipline, speedy outfielder role. Can never have enough of those guys in your organization. Too bad Juan Pierre is elsewhere.
It is pretty amazing how much better the team is already than last spring. A bullpen not reliant on 35+ relievers like Julian or Kip or Villone.
Sp's have to be better with Marquis >Cabby.
Olsen would fit into the "guys they may believe in but I don't" category. He's just a bad innings eater at this point (like Martin, Mock, Stammen, etc.)
ReplyDeleteDetwiler...I guess I was a little harsh on him. He could be ok as a 4th/5th. But I don't think that the type of guy you "truly believe" in. Those types are mid-rotation at worst who might surprise and be solid #2s or even if they falter are still rotation worthy. I'm not sure Detwiler is that level.
Taveras, late season roster expansion pinch runner / fielder only type. LAST PEICE 0' TEH PUZZEL!!
Pitching, it's not THAT much better talent-wise, but it should be stats wise, just because they had everything go against them last year. Middle pack bullpen, back of the middle pack rotation? overall that would be a big improvement.
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What really pisses me off is that Jon Garland signed with San Diego for 1-yr, $5 mill. He would be another Marquis-type pitcher - innings eater, relatively young, and cheaply available. That is the type of second starter Rizzo needed to get.
ReplyDeleteWilliam - I liked Doug Davis myself. Not young but it's one year, right?
ReplyDeleteWang added. I'm pretty eh and sometimes think Rizzo's low of sinkers goes overboard.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, Marquis, Lannan, Wang, Olsen and the horserace.
I think at least one of Olsen/Wang will be a bust. Lot of money on some rehab pitchers there
Garland wanted to stay on the west coast, I have a feeling the Nats were competitive with their bid but he didn't take it, like Teixeira last year. Davis was somehow averagey despite walking a ton of guys - I wouldn't count on a guy like that to help you eat innings. Olsen stinks, but he's not really any worse than Davis. Stammen is the intriguing guy, with all the ground balls he gets, he could be ok if the Nats could field better. Detwiler is still young enough to develop into a decent middle rotation guy. Basically, it looks like they are going to wear out the options of a bunch of guys for two months until Wang and Strasburg are ready and with health luck, you only need one of them to turn into a fifth starter.
ReplyDeleteOlsen's only advantage on Davis is age. Ok well maybe Olsen walks a few less, but he strikes out a few less, gives up more homers (the killer), and is more hittable in general. This difference is small but important. It's why Davis off his game is about the same as Olsen on it.
ReplyDeleteThis whole offseason has been "meh"- the only reason people are excited is because the moves make sense/ fill needs (unlike under the previous GM, who loved collecting toolsy outfielders). The moves are okay, but not really game-changers. Regardless, I can't wait for the season to start!
ReplyDeleteYou should be proud of that lemons quote, it was awesome and fully fits. Seems as though Rizzo promised us 12 lemons, gave us 4, and now we're all left with a centerpiece that just won't get the job done.
ReplyDeleteRizzo: You want another reliable starting pitcher?
ReplyDeleteHarper: I want you to want another reliable starting pitcher.
Rizzo: Why would I want another reliable starting pitcher?
This is certainly a sign of what comes out of consecutive 100-loss seasons. The new GM's honeymoon didn't even last until the first day of Spring Training. That said, it will take some luck (or a vinidcation of Rizzo's scouting) for the rotation to be decent, because good health for both Olsen and Wang could make a significant difference.
ReplyDeleteIt's doesn't help the "new" GM that he's actually been hanging around the last couple of years.
ReplyDeleteI kinda have been expecting this in a way...
ReplyDeleteBut I reali dun think da world is going to end...start a new era maybe but the world is not ending.
That's not gonna happen till a thousand years later! Ok, I'm not sure bout that either but that's not the point! The world's not gonna end! Full stop!
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