Monday, December 13, 2010

Nats face sheer wall of rock to climb in the NL East


Just think of it this way: The Phillies youngest star will be 33 in 2013 and that's the guy that is most likely to age badly. That year or maybe in 2014 that could be an old, bad, expensive team. Either that or they'll be the team that let Jimmy Rollins walk and he's got that aura that if the team loses 3 games in a row the media will be all like "Why'd they let Rollins walk! He's a winner!"

Don't think of it this way : That's a lot of intra-divisional losses in 2011 and 2012.

REALLY don't think of it this way : This isn't a heartwarming story of a guy going where his heart is. This is a guy who wanted to pitch in the NL (easier) on a winner for roughly the hideous amounts of money he was going to get elsewhere. The Yankees are in bigger trouble (of maybe not having the best record in the AL East) but at least they can say "Ok this guy wasn't about the money". The Rangers were dumped like a summer camp girlfriend, for last year's summer camp girlfriend.
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10 comments:

  1. Pig.Pen5:51 AM

    Lot more hype than substance.
    But the bigger factor is this: next year the "Big 4" of the Phillies' rotation will have an average age of 32. Halladay will be 34, Oswalt will be 34, Lee will be 33 and Hamels will be 27. Lee missed time last year due to injury, and Oswalt missed several starts in 2009. They'll probably still be great next year, but in 2012 and beyond, they're going to be a very old staff that's very, very expensive.

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  2. Harper5:58 AM

    Yeah this is a 2011 move first and foremo.st After 2011 it could be a year by year "Is this when they collapse/have a big injury" situation.

    The interesting all-in move though that would give them a rebirth in 2012 and beyond? Go for Reyes, letting Rollins walk. THAT would be intersting.

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  3. Hoo7:16 AM

    I'd guess this means the Phils could really fall like a rock in 2 years just as the Nats are peaking.

    On the other hand (and more likely), big payrolls lead to big wins lead to big payrolls and mini-dynasties. The Phils seem to have a pretty good organization right now. So I'm guessing they aren't going to crash once 3/5ts of the pitching staff is 35+.

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  4. Wally10:08 AM

    Harper - from previous post re: Oswalt. He'll start two games in the entire playoffs for them. Do they need him to actually get in? If he could bring back the remaining pieces they need - bullpen, RH OF - wouldn't it make sense for them? I am probably just hoping, but it isn't crazy. They could probably get Willingham (or Morse, if they want to save $$) and Clippard or Burnett while getting the Nats to eat all of his salary. Blanton probably requires them to eat salary and not get much in terms of players.

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  5. Anonymous1:44 PM

    Well admittedly it took a little luster off the Matt Stairs signing. It will really hurt in 2011 and may again in 2012 if the Phils don't have a major injury problem. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up trading at least one of the starters for another bat.

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  6. Killertestudo7:13 PM

    I agree, in that its not "a heartfelt" story of him returning to the city he supposedly loves. All the crowing about the less money, doesn't it work out to more per year than the yanks/rangers were offering? To me, he did it purely as a last chance to get a world series. Its why Halladay's there, and Oswalt is there. Philly is loaded enough to make a deep run, and Lee wants in. Can't blame him, but im definitely in the camp where if the Phils don't win in the next year or two, they will have a very expensive and old team.

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  7. Killertestudo7:16 PM

    One other thing, about Grienke. Am i missing something on this guy? Seems to be drawing the most attention outside of Lee, and admittedly im not too good with all the other baseball stats, But is a 10-14 4+ ERA and documented severe anxiety disorder worth possibly Dez and 4 prospects? The Nationals seem to have enough losing pitchers with high ERA's at the moment.

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  8. Harper8:44 AM

    Hoo - probably right, but even the Red Sox felt the need to try to go cheaper (for one year at least... and then that led to epic spending...)


    Wally - Oswalt for Willingham and Burnett? Seems like that helps the Nats way more than hurts the Phils. Though I agree they don't need him - they also have a lot of leeway to see if they can find their own answers to OF and relief pitching during the season.

    Anon - I really think they won't trade - not unless they really need it and it's too early to say

    KS - I assume you are not kidding so a pitcher who will be 27 next year who one the Cy Young 2 years ago with a 2.16 ERA in the AL has to be highly coveted by any GM. HAS TO

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  9. Killertestudo12:25 PM

    I didnt mean to come off as an ignorant troll about Zack. I guess my main concern is the sudden drop off after the Cy Young year. Was Kansas City that bad behind him? Was he hurt? or was he "playing for a trade" so to speak, and not playing 100% hungry, something I always felt Felipe Lopez did. I know his contract is favorable to pick up, but just coming off mediocre year following a GREAT year seems like theres some underlying issue. Hopefully, the issue would be that Kansas City completely sucked behind him. I am guessing that did have a part.

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  10. Harper3:40 PM

    KS- didn't mean to imply anything of the sort. (although you read this blog which is questionable) the drop off is a legit concern. Generally the feeling is that last year's league average ERA was mostly bad luck. (gave up a bunch more hits with people on base - he'd been consistent before and it's generally a consistent stat) His fancy stats were pretty consistent with 2009s 3.50 ERA. That's a guy who will get close to 3.00 in the NL for the next 5 years or so (assuming he remains healthy and happy)

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