This is why it's not ok to ignore the major league team for years and years. This is why, if you know you can overpay and get Werth, you do it AND you keep Dunn. You get better, you don't tread water.
Hey, at least we will have Jayson Werth! Joking aside, I would pretty much rather have anyone besides Webb. Carmona,Pavano,Garza(highly unlikely). Wasn't Webb's fastball somewhere in the mid-80's last time he was throwing (post-injury)? That sounds like another Chien Ming Wang in the making.
The Werth contract looks better now. It shows exactly how much the Nats have to overpay.
This offseason is still pretty weak(read failure) right now. I saw that Joel Peralta signed a one year deal for $900K. I'm surprised the Nats let him walk if they could have gone 2 years for say $1.8 million. That's chicken feed for a guy who was one of the best in the pen next year. You're not going to get a reliever much cheaper than that. H-Rod replacing Peralta is weak since if you keep Peralta, he'd be easily moveable in July for more org depth. Last time I checked, it's not like the Nats pen was so full that they couldn't use both of them.
Trying to stay optimistic here, but other than 1b, and maybe LF, the Nats should perform as good or better than last year. I don't think they are set for some kind of break-out year, but it still feels like they'll improve, if only because Desmond, Espinoza, Ramos, Storen and JZimm will all be one year further along. If the starting pitchers do okay, we could even be .500.
ks - I don't mind the gamble on Webb - Sure it's likely to come up empty (like with Wang) but if you get lucky Webb could be a #1 or #2 still. I do see the appeal of getting something more dependable, though. I'd go with Garza or Carmona before Webb but not Pavano.
Hoo - I don't know if it looks better but it is a bit more understandable...a tiiiiny bit. I still think the basic view that they didn't have to overpay on $ AND years, holds up. Agree on the offseason, Peralta doesn't bother me - I shrug my shoulders at any reliever move pretty much.
Donald - I'll agree that if all 5 of their young players improve AND they get improvement in their starting pitching they could challenge .500 but that's basically saying "if eveyrthing goes right". Scary part is that other than Storen they need no one to take a slide back and someone almost certainly will...
It seems to me like last year, so many things went wrong -- Willingham injury, disappointing Nyjer performance, Strasburg injury, Lannan's problems, Desmond's errors, revolving door at 2b -- that maybe it isn't so much that everything has to go right. It might be okay if just less things go wrong.
More thoughts on what needs to go right next year: - Lannan pitching close to his norm - Desmond playing like last year except bringing down the errors - Espinoza hitting around .250 or better - Morgan playing closer to 2009 than 2010 form. - Decent year from JZimm and Marquis - Bullpen performing anywhere close to last year.
I think that alone could buy them 10 more wins. If Wang comes back decent, or Detwiler improves or someone has a breakout year (Desmond, Bernadina, Ramos, Morse?) it could be close to .500.
What do you think? What'll it take to reach .500 with the current roster?
Donald, in my opinion I think you have it just about right. Marquis just needs to keep pitching as he was after he returned from the injury, Desmond needs to drop the errors big time, and probably just better run support in general. I mean, how many games did the Nats lose last year that were 3-2, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 etc? Flip about half of those and thats another 10 wins, has to be. Heck, in Strasburg's couple losses didn't the Nats score like 3 runs total?
I would add that Bernie/Morse need to hit 30 hrs combined, and slug .450, Morgan and Espy from your list, JZimm takes a big step forward, Lannan and Marquis pitch like they did after they returned, and no fall off from Zim and Werth. And they get a little lucky. They are probably due for a season where they outplay their Pythagorean expectations.
Could happen. I would like to see a little more hitting in the lineup, tho.
Odds are that we get more offense out of RF, C and 2B next year. I'd also hope that if we don't get more out of CF they need to make a switch. 3B, SS and LF are probably the same. I don't think they'll fill Dunn's shoes completely, but if they get LaRoche and he hits for a halfway decent average, they should be noticeably better on offense. They should also be noticeably better on defense across the board.
Donald, Wally, ks - At the end of the year I looked and the Nats were more unlucky than lucky - so in broad sense they should be better this year than last year but that was assuming the team was the same. You also have to remember that the bullpen could simply drop back to average and Livan could no longer be Super Livan and that would have a big negative effect on the pitching.
Hey, at least we will have Jayson Werth! Joking aside, I would pretty much rather have anyone besides Webb. Carmona,Pavano,Garza(highly unlikely). Wasn't Webb's fastball somewhere in the mid-80's last time he was throwing (post-injury)? That sounds like another Chien Ming Wang in the making.
ReplyDeleteThe Werth contract looks better now. It shows exactly how much the Nats have to overpay.
ReplyDeleteThis offseason is still pretty weak(read failure) right now. I saw that Joel Peralta signed a one year deal for $900K. I'm surprised the Nats let him walk if they could have gone 2 years for say $1.8 million. That's chicken feed for a guy who was one of the best in the pen next year. You're not going to get a reliever much cheaper than that. H-Rod replacing Peralta is weak since if you keep Peralta, he'd be easily moveable in July for more org depth. Last time I checked, it's not like the Nats pen was so full that they couldn't use both of them.
Trying to stay optimistic here, but other than 1b, and maybe LF, the Nats should perform as good or better than last year. I don't think they are set for some kind of break-out year, but it still feels like they'll improve, if only because Desmond, Espinoza, Ramos, Storen and JZimm will all be one year further along. If the starting pitchers do okay, we could even be .500.
ReplyDeleteks - I don't mind the gamble on Webb - Sure it's likely to come up empty (like with Wang) but if you get lucky Webb could be a #1 or #2 still. I do see the appeal of getting something more dependable, though. I'd go with Garza or Carmona before Webb but not Pavano.
ReplyDeleteHoo - I don't know if it looks better but it is a bit more understandable...a tiiiiny bit. I still think the basic view that they didn't have to overpay on $ AND years, holds up. Agree on the offseason, Peralta doesn't bother me - I shrug my shoulders at any reliever move pretty much.
Donald - I'll agree that if all 5 of their young players improve AND they get improvement in their starting pitching they could challenge .500 but that's basically saying "if eveyrthing goes right". Scary part is that other than Storen they need no one to take a slide back and someone almost certainly will...
It seems to me like last year, so many things went wrong -- Willingham injury, disappointing Nyjer performance, Strasburg injury, Lannan's problems, Desmond's errors, revolving door at 2b -- that maybe it isn't so much that everything has to go right. It might be okay if just less things go wrong.
ReplyDeleteMore thoughts on what needs to go right next year:
ReplyDelete- Lannan pitching close to his norm
- Desmond playing like last year except bringing down the errors
- Espinoza hitting around .250 or better
- Morgan playing closer to 2009 than 2010 form.
- Decent year from JZimm and Marquis
- Bullpen performing anywhere close to last year.
I think that alone could buy them 10 more wins. If Wang comes back decent, or Detwiler improves or someone has a breakout year (Desmond, Bernadina, Ramos, Morse?) it could be close to .500.
What do you think? What'll it take to reach .500 with the current roster?
Donald, in my opinion I think you have it just about right. Marquis just needs to keep pitching as he was after he returned from the injury, Desmond needs to drop the errors big time, and probably just better run support in general. I mean, how many games did the Nats lose last year that were 3-2, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 etc? Flip about half of those and thats another 10 wins, has to be. Heck, in Strasburg's couple losses didn't the Nats score like 3 runs total?
ReplyDeleteI would add that Bernie/Morse need to hit 30 hrs combined, and slug .450, Morgan and Espy from your list, JZimm takes a big step forward, Lannan and Marquis pitch like they did after they returned, and no fall off from Zim and Werth. And they get a little lucky. They are probably due for a season where they outplay their Pythagorean expectations.
ReplyDeleteCould happen. I would like to see a little more hitting in the lineup, tho.
Odds are that we get more offense out of RF, C and 2B next year. I'd also hope that if we don't get more out of CF they need to make a switch. 3B, SS and LF are probably the same. I don't think they'll fill Dunn's shoes completely, but if they get LaRoche and he hits for a halfway decent average, they should be noticeably better on offense. They should also be noticeably better on defense across the board.
ReplyDeleteWhat, nothing on our new OF?
ReplyDeleteDonald, Wally, ks - At the end of the year I looked and the Nats were more unlucky than lucky - so in broad sense they should be better this year than last year but that was assuming the team was the same. You also have to remember that the bullpen could simply drop back to average and Livan could no longer be Super Livan and that would have a big negative effect on the pitching.
ReplyDeletebryan - I just can't get up the energy.
Harper - but its Rick Ankiel. He's a defensive MONSTER.
ReplyDeleteLike Frankenstein?
ReplyDelete(honestly a Morse/Ankiel strict platoon wouldn't be the WORST thing...)