It's a long season and anything could happen, but I can see the Nats pitching staff staying this good or getting better and the bats will certainly get better. The Mets OTOH, well, as you said, what you see is probably what you get.
Long-short: I doubt the Nats finish last this year.
Byran - Johan could be back but he'd have to come back as JOHAN to make a difference. I don't see it. Sadly the fans were all up into R A Dickey after last year.
vague clothing related aside - back in the day I misheard the lyrics to a Mets commercial ditty that would go "Nine straight innings of Make It Mets!" as "Nine straight innings of naked Mets!"
I like to believe that that kept me a Yankees fans during the Roberto Kelly years.
Pre-season I thought that the Nats had better odds to finish third than last. I still think that's true despite the melt-down in hitting. Hitting will progress and pitching will likely regress but still better than NY.
Since the Nats managed to finish last the year they were 50-31 halfway through, I take nothing for granted. I want a big cushion between DC and the cellar so that any swoon would come too late.
Unlike 2005, I think 81-81 will earn 3rd or 4th this year. The Mets are awful. As such, my prediction of 83-79 should safely land us in a distant 3rd or 4th. Distant from the Mets in 5th that is.
They're abjectly miserable right now, for sure. I suppose they should rebound some -- Turner/Murphy/whatever can't be any worse than Emaus was, Pelfrey isn't this terrible, and Bay should be coming back soon I think. Then again, if Beltran continues playing well, they'll trade him ...
Obviously, the Mets are front-runners for last right now, but don't count out the Nats over the course of a long season ....
Hoo - 3rd than last? Hmmm not sure what I would have taken there. I could see the Mets or the Marlins finishing under the Nats but both? tough call.
Man your second comment makes it seem even more optimistic. Start the "Nats aren't last" chant!
+1/2st - True but even at that 50-31 peak the worst team in the division was only one game under .500. An epic collapse was needed but finishing last was still conceivable since there was no bad teams. Now there is one (and maybe two - I'm looking at you Nats)
Lee - agreed a .500 record won't be last this year, not even close.
Basil - I can see a scenario where the offense explodes but it would take a miracle for that pitching staff to be decent, but your second point is hard to ignore. Not much stopping this Nats team from crashing right past them if they stop being horrible. Still why be a downer.
Harper: A lot of folks think Mets trade Reyes and of course Beltran this summer. I'd guess Bay if anyone wants him. Mets are going to be blown up.
As for third... I thought Marlins might not be that good and dump more pieces. Of course, I underestimated Bonifacio the hitting machine. Everything goes right for Nats wrong for Marlins, it could happen. I think the Mets are just dead for a while due to being near insolvent.
It's a long season and anything could happen, but I can see the Nats pitching staff staying this good or getting better and the bats will certainly get better. The Mets OTOH, well, as you said, what you see is probably what you get.
ReplyDeleteLong-short: I doubt the Nats finish last this year.
Snappy uniforms though.
ReplyDeleteByran - Johan could be back but he'd have to come back as JOHAN to make a difference. I don't see it. Sadly the fans were all up into R A Dickey after last year.
ReplyDeletevague clothing related aside - back in the day I misheard the lyrics to a Mets commercial ditty that would go "Nine straight innings of Make It Mets!" as "Nine straight innings of naked Mets!"
I like to believe that that kept me a Yankees fans during the Roberto Kelly years.
Pre-season I thought that the Nats had better odds to finish third than last. I still think that's true despite the melt-down in hitting. Hitting will progress and pitching will likely regress but still better than NY.
ReplyDeleteSince the Nats managed to finish last the year they were 50-31 halfway through, I take nothing for granted. I want a big cushion between DC and the cellar so that any swoon would come too late.
ReplyDeleteUnlike 2005, I think 81-81 will earn 3rd or 4th this year. The Mets are awful. As such, my prediction of 83-79 should safely land us in a distant 3rd or 4th. Distant from the Mets in 5th that is.
ReplyDeleteI also expect the Mets to have a Marlins-esque fire sale this summer and be willing to flip half their everyday lineup and a few pitchers.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets are that unhappy medium of expense, no good, aging and um are associated with the word bankruptcy.
They're abjectly miserable right now, for sure. I suppose they should rebound some -- Turner/Murphy/whatever can't be any worse than Emaus was, Pelfrey isn't this terrible, and Bay should be coming back soon I think. Then again, if Beltran continues playing well, they'll trade him ...
ReplyDeleteObviously, the Mets are front-runners for last right now, but don't count out the Nats over the course of a long season ....
BTW, Harper: That was the Sid Fernandez era, wasn't it? {shiver}
ReplyDeleteHoo - 3rd than last? Hmmm not sure what I would have taken there. I could see the Mets or the Marlins finishing under the Nats but both? tough call.
ReplyDeleteMan your second comment makes it seem even more optimistic. Start the "Nats aren't last" chant!
+1/2st - True but even at that 50-31 peak the worst team in the division was only one game under .500. An epic collapse was needed but finishing last was still conceivable since there was no bad teams. Now there is one (and maybe two - I'm looking at you Nats)
Lee - agreed a .500 record won't be last this year, not even close.
Basil - I can see a scenario where the offense explodes but it would take a miracle for that pitching staff to be decent, but your second point is hard to ignore. Not much stopping this Nats team from crashing right past them if they stop being horrible. Still why be a downer.
Great - now I have to scrub my brain.
Harper: A lot of folks think Mets trade Reyes and of course Beltran this summer. I'd guess Bay if anyone wants him. Mets are going to be blown up.
ReplyDeleteAs for third... I thought Marlins might not be that good and dump more pieces. Of course, I underestimated Bonifacio the hitting machine. Everything goes right for Nats wrong for Marlins, it could happen. I think the Mets are just dead for a while due to being near insolvent.