Thursday, September 15, 2011

Nats Over / Under Challenge

We're nearing years end so how about an over/under challenge to make the last weeks a little more interesting?


Mike Morse : Over/Under  .300 average 
Morse is struggling down the stretch (.208 ave in Sept) but it would still take a 3-4 game hitless streak for him to fall under .300.

Danny Espinosa :  20 homers
Danny is sitting on 19 so it'll just take one to ruin the under bet, but he has no homers in Sept and only 2 since July 18th (Really? ...   Yep, really)

Pudge Rodrgiuez : 1 hit.
Pudge is in a reserve role now and has only had one at bat this month.  Given he's a bit banged up chances are he won't get more than a handful of at bats, if that.

Ian Desmond : 4.0 K / BB ratio
Ian sits at exactly 4 strikeouts for every walk.  It seems like he should be an easy bet to drop that down given his decent offensive Sept but the truth is he's having his worst month in this respect 1 walk in September to 12 Ks so far.  (for those thinking - "See! This is what Desmond needs to do!" Just swing the bat!" - know that his second highest K/BB ratio went with his worst .217 / .255 / .228 month)

Jayson Werth : 100 OPS+ 
This season is a lost one for Jayson no matter how you cut it.  However, if he can keep his OPS+ over 100 (it's at 101 now) he can at least say he provided more offense than your average National Leaguer.  He's on a roll now. While no one has been watching he's put up a September you probably would have accepted for a yearly total. .277 / .393 / .489

Nats Offense : .700 OPS. 
Even though they have their holes, the Nats aren't the worst hitting team by far.  In most part thanks to their slugging, if you can believe it.  They have an OPS of .695 so far.   All it takes is a couple of big games...


Strasburg : 18 innings pitched. 
The Nats have him scheduled for 2 more games for sure with a maybe 3rd lying out there.  His pitch count limits make it nearly impossible for a long game but 5/6 innings should be the average.  He's at 8 IP now.  This depends a lot on whether you think he gets that 3rd game in.

John Lannan :  9 wins.  (over or match bet)
Did you know John has never won 10 games? Jesus, if he was on a good team he'd probably be approaching 60 wins in total by now. 9 wins now - 2 or 3 shots depending on how the Nats work their rotation.

Milone + Peacock + Detwiler : 5 wins
Sitting at 3 now.  Hard to see them only getting to 4 but hard to see them getting to 6 either.  That's how the gamblers make their money, kids. 

Tyler Clippard - 2.00 ERA
He's got a 1.89 ERA now.  That gives him about a 1 run in 1 inning cushion before hitting that 2.00 ERA threshold.  It's tempting to bet against him but then again he did keep his ERA under 2 for 5 1/2 months.  What's 3 more weeks?

Drew Storen - 39 saves. 
At 37 now.   Can he get to 40?  (in case you are wondering Nats record is 47 by Cordero in 2005)

Make your guesses.  No choosing the middle, except for the Lannan bet.  This is over/under.  Not make your own rules game. Winner gets the pride of knowing he's a winner at something in his or her life.

14 comments:

  1. Oh I'll go Under, Over, Under, Over, Over, Under // Under, Over, Over, Under, Over

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  2. Awesome stuff!

    Over
    Over
    Under
    Under
    Over
    Under
    Stras: Under
    Over
    Over
    Under
    Over

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  3. Mike Morse: Over
    Danny Espinosa: Over
    Pudge: Under
    Ian Desmond: Under
    Jayson Werth: Over
    Nats O: Under
    Strasburg: WAAAAY Under
    John Lannan: Over
    Milone/Pea/Det: Over
    Tyler Clippard: Under
    Storen: Over

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  4. Darnit, I just relized I picked exactly the same as Hoo. To make it interesting, I'll change my Werth pick to Under.

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  5. Harper would make either a very, very good gambling house or a very bad one. So far all three of us have a lot of agreement.

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  6. Nattydread9:01 AM

    Mike Morse: Over
    Danny Espinosa: Over
    Pudge: Under
    Ian Desmond: Over
    Jayson Werth: Over
    Nats O: Under
    Strasburg: Over
    John Lannan: Over
    Milone/Pea/Det: Over
    Tyler Clippard: Under
    Storen: Under

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  7. Mike Morse: Over
    Danny Espinosa: Under
    Pudge: Under
    Ian Desmond: Under (meaning he'll be less than 4:1)
    Jayson Werth: Over
    Nats O: Under
    Strasburg: Under
    John Lannan: Over
    Milone/Pea/Det: Under
    Tyler Clippard: Under
    Storen: Over

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  8. Mike Morse: Over
    Danny Espinosa: Over
    Pudge: Over (gambling he gets a start, maybe for Stras)
    Ian Desmond: Over
    Jayson Werth: Over
    Nats O: Under
    Strasburg: Under
    John Lannan: Over
    Milone/Pea/Det: Under (or at lesst not over)
    Tyler Clippard: Under
    Storen: Under

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  9. Mike Morse: Over
    Danny Espinosa: Under
    Pudge: Under
    Ian Desmond: Under
    Jayson Werth: Over
    Nats O: Under
    Strasburg: Under
    John Lannan: Nine wins
    Milone/Pea/Det: Under
    Tyler Clippard: Under
    Storen: Over

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  10. DCNatty9:56 AM

    You didnt put an over/under on total wins?

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  11. For Strasburg, do you mean 18 innings total or 18 innings over the remaining games? I assume 18 total, but given the guesses so far, others might be assuming 18 additional.

    My guesses below are based on 18 total innings. If it's 18 more innings, I'll reluctantly switch to under.

    Morse: Over
    Espinosa: Over
    Pudge: Under
    Desmond: Over (ie more than 4k per bb)
    Werth: Over
    Nats Offense: Under
    Strasburg: Over
    Lannan: Over
    Milone + Peacock + Detwiler: Over
    Clippard: Over (ie NOT under 2 ERA)
    Storen: Under

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  12. michael k1:46 PM

    Morse: under (my heart says no but my head says yes)
    Espinosa: over
    Pudge: Under
    Desmond: under (so better so/bb rate)
    Werth: over
    Nats: under
    Strasburg: over
    Lannan: He'll get it, over
    MilPeaDet: over (Milone's got one today already)
    Clippard: under (so better era)
    Storen: over

    It seems like I'm giving homerish responses, but I think your predictions are a bit harsh.

    Also, when I win, I would like something more than pride. Something tangible, please :)

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  13. Ever the optimist…
    …remember I said ‘Catch those Mets’ a couple posts ago…

    Morse: over
    Espinosa: over
    Pudge: under :-(
    Desi: over
    Werth: over
    Nats: over
    Strasburg: under
    Lannan: over
    3 Amigos: over
    Clippard: under
    Storen: under

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  14. DezoPenguin7:48 PM

    Let's see...

    Morse: Under; he's slumping a little and this is far more than he's ever played in a season.

    Espinosa: Under; ditto.

    Pudge: Under. I hope. There's no good reason to play him at all.

    Desmond: Over--that is, more than 4K/BB. I have no faith in him.

    Werth: Over. Finally finding his stroke--let's hope it carries into next year (and yes, I'd have been more than happy to get his September line for a full year; I don't mind a guy being overpaid as long as he's reasonably productive and useful).

    Nats O: Over. They honestly do look something not too different from adequate.

    Strasburg: Over. I think he gets 3 starts since, well, it gives fans a reason to buy tickets, and he has to get a longer leash SOME time.

    Lannan: Hmmm...Over. I think he wins one, especially as Davey will likely let him pitch later in games to save the bullpen who'll be tired from throwing 4 every time one of the kids starts.

    Milone/Peacock/Detweiler: Over. Of course, Milone helped by winning one earlier tonight. ^_-

    Clippard: Under.

    Storen: Under; while I see the Nats getting enough wins for him to take a shot, some of them will be like tonight where there's no save opportunity. But frankly I think this bet goes to the house when he matches. ^_-

    So...any bets on whether the Mets can catch US? ^_-

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