Yay, Lannan. Brow's he do it!
He really should have done it before now, and on a better team he would have. It's just hard to win 10 games when your team is only winning 60. I'm not saying Lannan would be a 20 game winner on a different team but when you're making 30+ starts and you got an ERA under 4.00, you expect a win total of at least 10. Doubt me? Since 1996 there have been 528 seasons as I've described. In 493 of them (93%) you get 10 wins. It not only takes a bad team it takes some bad breaks too.
[Side note : looking this up the worst luck year appears to belong to Clayton Kershaw in 2009. He had a 2.79 ERA over 30 games and yet won only 8 times. This is for a team that was 4th in the league in runs scored and won 95 games. The oddness doesn't end there - the team leader in wins was Billingsly with 12 (32 starts). Wolf was next with 11 (34 starts). Kuroda won 8 in 20 starts. For the mish-mash of guys that started the other 42 games they won 22 times.]
Here's brow he didn't do it the past 3 years. (9,9, and 8 wins respectively)
In 2008 John got to 6 wins in Mid-July (game 98) but wouldn't get another one until the end of August when he won back to back games. He'd only win one in September (for a team that went 7-17), losing games 4-0 and 4-3 and another one where he only allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings. (oddly enough in his only badly pitched game in September that year the Nats scored a ton of runs and he got a no-decision).
In 2009 John got his 8th win on August 5th (game 108), leaving him two whole months to get just 2 more wins. He would proceed to lose games 3-2, 5-3, 3-2, 4-1 and got no decisions in 3-2 and another one where he only allowed 2 earned runs over 7 innings.
In 2010 John started the year terribly and got bumped to the minors (much to the glee of a certain segment of baseball fans. Let's call them S-rmetricians. No, that's too obvious. How about SaberMs?) and then the DL. He was sitting at 2-5 going into his August 6th start. He'd get a decision in his next 8 starts going 6-2, but he ran out of time.
So finally, John has crossed into double-digit territory. Congratulations. Small victories!
Speaking of which the Nats "Science" Number is down to 2.
I just want to give commenting points for the secret Simpsons reference you sneaked into this post.
ReplyDeleteI've always liked Lannan, so I fully appreciate your constant Lannan-boosting. He's one of the few consistent members of the team since I arrived in DC in 2008.
2008? Doesn't seem that long but I think it would be him, Zimm, Clipp, and I guess Flores if you'd like. Let me check... hmm Balester too. How about that.
ReplyDeleteHow do they make you blog for this club?
ReplyDelete"How do they make you blog for this club?"
ReplyDeleteFrom what I understand, it involves a photograph of Harper with a DVD copy of Air Bud: Seventh Inning Fetch.
Hmmm...Lannan, Storen, Espi, and now the three kids have all hit the "over" on those over/under bets. The pitching is definitely finishing the season strong!
ReplyDeleteAnon: they rely on a combination of my boredom and lifestyle momentum.
ReplyDeletecalindc : Hardly, unless they gave me that movie as a gift. My love for the Air Bud franchise goes far enough that I've attempted to watch a couple Air Buddies. Haven't succeeded but have attempted.
Dezo - good week for the overers. I'll update again on Monday then at seasons end. Got a fancy excel chart set up and everything.
And as a bonus, he will lead the club in wins this year.
ReplyDelete