Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Losing Espy

Could the playoff fate of the Nationals hinge on one player's shoulder? We'll find out today what's up with Espinosa and if he misses a lot of time, or doesn't take to the cortisone like Zimmerman did, that is a big blow to the Nats.

Is it a huge blow offensively?  Well, on one hand you can say Danny is who he is. A low average guy with some patience and some pop. I don't think it's quite fair to just say "well if you take out his cold start he has hit X" and use X as a reference point to how he'll do going foward. Those early games count. His current line of .250 / .315 / .407 is fair. But I do personally think that while the average and OBP is right on line, that was an unusually low power period for him. I think he is more in the .420+ range which takes him from being a slightly below average hitter to a slightly above average one. As much as we may like Lombardozzi and his decent average, he has no power and overall is an below average hitter. Losing Danny will matter at least a little

But more than that, Danny is one more bat at the bottom of the lineup that can work the pitcher and get on base without a hit. The Nats have their share of free swingers. Desmond, Morse, whoever is catching, they don't attack the pitcher in the same way that the top of the order does. That may sound dumb but just because you are in the bottom half of the lineup doesn't mean you have to swing away. Espinosa is a good example of that. He's 3rd out of qualified Nats in P/PA (Werth would be #1 by far). He doesn't walk a ton, but he does find his way to first through free passes and the more than occasional HBP (league leading 13).  Lombardozzi is not like this at all. He hangs out near Desmond, seeing the fewest amount of pitcher per plate appearance in the league. Morse - Desmond - Lombardozzi - Suzuki - pitcher; that's a bottom of a lineup an opposing hurler can fly through if he's on his game.

But Danny is more than his bat, he's an excellent fielder as well. The scouts think it and the fancy stats back it up. Danny's range is 4th among all 2nd basemen this year, and he's had continuously good fielding stats in his brief career. Lombardozzi is ok but he's not in Danny's league. And while Danny is not the fastest baserunner, a stolen base is not out of the question (19 SB, 6CS). Lombardozzi feels a step slower (5 SB, 3 CS)

Power is lost, patience is lost, the bottom of the lineup becomes nothing but free-swingers, the defense is diminished, speed is lost. While offensively the gain in average might make the loss in power and patience a smaller step back than it normally would be, the total combination is a harsh reality for the Nats. They get worse in nearly every way with Danny replaced by Steve. (if you think I'm ignoring DeRosa, I am and so should Davey and Rizzo)

The one consolation I can think of, light hitting MIs have a way of becoming hitting heroes in the postseason.  In fact in 1987 one such nobody hit .267 with a .353 OBP in the ALCS, followed by a .412 / .474 / .647 World Series performance. That guy?  Steve Lombardozzi Sr.

Hey, if it is bad news you might as well grab onto whatever you got, right? 

30 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:34 AM

    Well, add this to the Redskins injury news and it's turning out to be a crappy day.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Booyah Suckah!10:03 AM

    Fun Fact: The Nats final 19 games (the 3 they just played and the 16 left to play) are ALL against teams either currently sitting in a WC spot or within 3.5 games of one.

    Which basically means every single game means something to one or both teams. Much harder to win when you're going against teams who are hanging on for dear life.

    I still think the Nats will be fine, though. If they go 8-8, the Braves have to go 13-1. I don't see that happening.

    As for home field advantage, I'm not sure that's a gift at this point. The Nats still have the best road record in the majors, and I'd rather let Cincy deal with the Braves and have the Nats play the Giants, who they've dealt with pretty effectively this season.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'd much rather go into the postseason healthy than worry about home park advantage. But I sure as hell would like to see some friggin playoff games.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Can Rendon play 2B? And who would now back up Desmond?

    (you are not allowed to say DeRosa)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous4:14 PM

    Right here, right now. DeRosa gets 2 hits in the first round that are what move us to round #2. Lombo channels dad and is a break-even replacement. Rendon doesn't play. Shouldn't play. Need 2 callup starts for the rest of the regular season (yes, Harper, rest ZNN once! Maybe twice!) and it's Home Field.

    Chaos.....DeRosa has that in him. I believe. I predict.

    ReplyDelete
  6. We can all breath a sigh of relief on the Espi MRI. Hopefully he starts today and we at least split the doubleheader.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous11:15 PM

    It's amazing to pay a quick visit this web site and reading the views of all mates on the topic of this paragraph, while I am also keen of getting experience.
    Feel free to surf my web page ; how to stop snoring nhs

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous5:24 PM

    Aftеr сhecκing out a number of the articles on
    your website, I really appreciate your way of writing a blog.
    I book marked іt tо my bookmark webpage list and will bе сhecking back
    in the near future. Take а loоk at my website aѕ
    ωell and tell me what you think.
    Also see my web site > payday loans no credit check

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous8:12 PM

    Do you have any video оf that? ӏ'd want to find out more details.
    Look into my web blog 1 month loan

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous8:48 AM

    Hеllo to eνеry one, it's genuinely a fastidious for me to pay a quick visit this web site, it contains valuable Information.
    My web site :: loans for bad credit

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous4:29 PM

    I'm amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog that's
    both еquallу educative and entегtaining, and let me tell you, уou've hit the nail on the head. The issue is something too few folks are speaking intelligently about. I am very happy that I came across this during my search for something regarding this.

    My blog; New Bingo Sites
    Here is my web blog : New Bingo Sites

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous6:11 AM

    Its like you read my mind! You aрpеar tο know а lοt about this, like yоu ωrote the book in іt οг ѕomething.

    Ӏ thіnk that you can ԁo with a few ρicѕ to
    drіve the message hοme a lіttlе bit, but instead
    of thаt, thіs is great blog. A great
    read. I wіll definіtely bе bacκ.


    Нeгe is my homepagе; instant cash
    my web page :: instant cash

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous10:37 PM

    I think this is among the most νital information for me.
    Anԁ i'm glad reading your article. But wanna remark on few general things, The web site style is perfect, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

    Also visit my web page - quick cash loans
    My web page: quick cash loans

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous3:11 PM

    I simply cοuld not lеave уour wеbsіte bеfoге suggesting thаt
    I асtuаllу enjoуed the usual infoгmation аn іndividual prοvide for your visitors?
    Ιѕ gοnna bе back steаdily in огԁer tо chеck out nеw posts

    Fеel free tο νisit my sitе; bad credit loans

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous9:15 PM

    Helρful infoгmatiοn. Lucky me I discoveгеd yоur web sitе bу аccіdent,
    and I am ѕtunned whу this coincidеncе didn't happened earlier! I bookmarked it.

    My blog post Engagement Rings

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous6:27 AM

    Ι'd like to find out more? I'd care to finԁ οut
    morе detаils.

    Here is my blοg; payday loans bad credit

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous10:30 AM

    Hі, I do believe this is a grеаt websitе.
    I stumbledupon it ;) I am going to come back once again since I sаved as а favorite іt.

    Money anԁ freеdom iѕ the best way to chаnge,
    may yοu be rich and cοntіnue to guide other people.


    Taκe a look at my pagе ... loans for bad credit
    My site: loans for bad credit

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous10:36 AM

    I think thе aԁmin of this web page is really
    ωοrking hard in favor οf his web ρage, because here everу data іs quality based materiаl.


    Tаkе a look at my web-site :: New Bingo Sites

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous2:51 PM

    This parаgraph ωіll help thе internet peορlе for crеating new
    weblog or eνen a blog fгom start to end.


    Alsо visіt my ѕite chlamydia test
    Also see my webpage > chlamydia test

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous7:42 AM

    Ηеllo, everythіng is goіng nicely hеre and ofcoursе evеry onе іs shаring
    іnformation, that's actually excellent, keep up writing.

    My web page: payday loans

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous3:25 PM

    Nice blοg here! Αlѕo youг wеb ѕite loadѕ uρ verу fast!

    What hoѕt are you using? Can Ι get your affilіatе link to
    уour hoѕt? I wіsh my ωeb site loaded up аs fаѕt as yours lοl

    My page: instant payday loans

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous6:04 PM

    An outstаnding sharе! I have just foгwarded thiѕ onto а
    collеaguе who had been conԁuсting a little homеwork on this.
    Αnԁ he aсtually ordered me breakfast sіmplу
    becauѕe I discoѵered it foг hіm.
    .. lol. Ѕo let me rеwοrd this.... Thаnκs for the meal!
    ! But yeah, thanκs for spending time to talk аbout
    thіs mаtter heгe on yοur blog.


    my sіtе quick loans

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous2:43 PM

    Hello theгe, Ι founԁ yοuг site via Google whilѕt looking for а related subject, your wеbsite came up, it
    sеems to be great. I've bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
    I am now not positive the place you're getting yοur information,
    but great topiс. I neeԁs to spend
    some time ѕtudying muсh more or understanding morе.
    Τhank you fοг fantastic info
    I waѕ on the lookout for this info for mу mission.


    My web page ... payday loan

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous7:31 AM

    Hi, yeah this post is іn fаct ρleаsаnt anԁ I have leaгned lot
    οf thingѕ from іt abоut blogging. thanks.


    Heге iѕ mу ωeblоg: same day loans
    Also see my website > same day loans

    ReplyDelete
  25. Anonymous10:22 AM

    Whаt's Going down i'm neω to this, I stumblеd
    upon this I've discovered It positively helpful and it has helped me out loads. I hope to give a contribution & aid other users like its helped me. Great job.

    My homepage :: payday loans online

    ReplyDelete
  26. Anonymous12:50 PM

    I do nοt eѵen κnow how I endеd up here, but
    I thought this post was gоoԁ. I don't know who you are but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you are not already ;) Cheers!

    my homepage :: short term loans

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous7:17 PM

    Reаllу no matter if someonе doesn't be aware of afterward its up to other visitors that they will assist, so here it takes place.

    Here is my blog ... payday loans

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous12:13 AM

    wondеrful іssues altogether, уou ϳust gained
    a nеw rеader. Whаt might you suggеst in regaгds to уour put up that you madе somе dayѕ in the ρast?
    Any сеrtaіn?

    My web page: Instant Payday Loans

    ReplyDelete
  29. Anonymous7:39 PM

    Hi friends, fastіdious artіcle аnԁ nice
    aгguments сommentеd here, I am really enjoyіng by these.



    Alѕo visit my wеbpаge :: Same Day Payday Loans

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous3:52 PM

    I thіnk the admіn of thіs web pаge is
    truly workіng hard in fаvoг of hіѕ web ρagе, fοr
    the reaѕοn thаt here еνeгy ԁatа is
    quality based ѕtuff.

    Here is mу wеb page: New Bingo Sites

    ReplyDelete