I'm driving to NY today so I'll be on the road for most, if not all, of the Nats game. SO PLEASE WIN
At best I say it's a toss-up. Any advantage the Nats have in fielding, relief, being at home, is mitigated by Lohse vs Detwiler. Not that Lohse is THAT much better but he is enough so anyone can win this game.
Does this strategy give the Nats the best chance at winning the series? I guess. Let's say you like short rest Gio better than Detwiler. Well then you might put your odds at winning each game as
Game 4 : Gio : 60%
Game 5 : Det, et. al : 55% (I like the Nats pen to be a strength)
as opposed to
Game 4 : Det : 50%
Game 5 : Gio : 70%
so your chance of winning the series increased in the latter from 33% to 35%. Yeah these numbers are just guesses but the point of it is there. Even if you like Gio better than Detwiler the Nats do have a better chance at winning it all in the scenario they are going with.
Of course I say who cares? The increase is marginal at best (unless there is something to suggest short-rest Gio may be a train-wreck) and anything can happen in any game so when it comes to a decider - I say just get there and then worry about what to do.
Allright - I'm off. Good luck Nats.
I just hope we win, or at the least if we have to lose it's the bullpen that blows it. A bad start from Det means that we have to hear about Strasburg all frickin' offseason. Okay, yes, anything short of a Series victory means we'll have to hear about Strasburg all frickin' offseason, but if Det pitches well in his place we can roll our eyes and ignore it.
ReplyDeleteIt's a good question whether we'd be better off with Stras or not right now. We won Game 1 anyway, which we might or might not with him pitching. Game 2 we lost, but if Gio had pitched instead of Znn, who knows? On the other hand, Game 3 would be Znn's crappy game or Jackson's crappy game, take your pick, while Carpenter & Co. were themselves. So maybe we're up 2-1 instead of being down 1-2. On the other hand, we'd then get Jackson's crappy game in Game 4. So if Det pitches well at least you can argue that no Stras wasn't the killer. (Obviously a flawed argument, since no one else's game is guaranteed to be the same pitching in a different place, but that's not the point. The real point is that if the offense doesn't score some runs it wouldn't matter if the ghost of Walter Johnson was out there pitching every game in this series, but try telling that to any reporter not working in D.C.)
Yeah, Jackson pitched a crappy game, but he could have pitched a 1-run complete game and we still would have lost. Our offense looked downright bad. It was to the point that I was just hoping for infield grounders in the hopes that one of our guys could at least try to outrun it. Or maybe an errant throw. Anything.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's the real issue behind all of this - our offense has vanished at the most critical time. 7 runs in 3 games is hard to work around for even the best staffs of all-time. We've just happened to combine that with 3 shaky starts from our SPs, so it looks even worse. Like Kenny said, nobody wins that game yesterday with zero offense. Nobody.
ReplyDeleteTo me, the Stras stuff SHOULD be reduced to "well, maybe the hitters would have felt better with Stras out there" and thus improved. But it won't, the media will decide the whole thing would have been different with him.
People will tell their narrative the way they like it. Unfortunate for us. But this isn't over yet, we're not down 3-0 or even 2-0. We're down one game. Win today, and let's see what happens tomorrow...
Now that was an exciting, well played game! Detwiler rocks!
ReplyDeleteJayson Werth the Money!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2012/10/11/audio-jayson-werths-walk-off-home-run/
ReplyDeleteSomehow I kept my car on the road. On the 13th pitch, Slowes & Jagler summon a bomb!
J-Dub FTW, it doesn't get any better than that!
ReplyDeleteMomentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher, and ours is pretty decent. Let's do this... :)
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteIn the stands for this one. Wooooo!!!!
ReplyDeleteCan't beat that! A thrilling game and a first-class performance from Detwiler ending in a Nats walk-off. Now let's hope Gio can follow in Verlander's footsteps and take his second game of the series.
ReplyDeleteYEAH!!!!
ReplyDeleteThat was incredible. I was hoarse for hours after the game.
ReplyDeleteCan't make it to the game tonight for lack of funds, but for the first time this series, I'll actually be able to sit in my favorite chair and watch it.
ReplyDeleteGio doesn't have consecutive bad games, so I'm hoping to see win number 22 for him.
Also, side note, last night was Washington's 100th win of the season. I don't know why, but that pleases me greatly.
Harper -- good call on Verlander being the difference in the Tiger series.
ReplyDelete