Presumed Plan : Ryan Zimmerman will shift over to first base as the mutual option year for current starter Adam LaRoche will not be picked up and he will become a free agent. The back-up will likely be Tyler Moore, though a cheap FA acquisition is probably not out of the question
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Injuries and contracts have forced the Nats hand. Ryan Zimmerman was signed to a long-term deal prior to the 2012 season and was expected to play 3B for the majority of that deal. But a shoulder injury in the same year led to a series of adjustments that has left him, at best, an erratic thrower and a liability at the hot corner.
Despite Adam's excellent year at the plate, letting him walk rather than paying him 15 million for 2015 on an mutual option, and letting Zimmerman take over at first seems preferable to any of the other options. You neither want to upset Rendon's growth or risk the errors that would come with Zimmerman back at 3rd and Rendon back at 2nd. Bryce is still only 22 and a good presence at the plate, which works against any sort of LF platoon idea. Span, who also has an option for 2015, helps cover for the lacking corner outfielders and just had a very good season offensively, making a more permanent move to LF with Bryce taking over center unpalatable. Adam wasn't great defensively and at 35 is likely to slide at the plate, if just a little. With no good options, this one feels like the least worst.
The Nats have always been high on Tyler Moore who has spent several years tearing up AAA. At an age (28 in January) and with the experience that indicates more time at AAA would likely serve no purpose, a full-time move to the major league bench makes sense. Matt Skole, who the Nats were high on going into 2014, had a rough year in AA and is unlikely to work his way onto the Nats. Of course as I noted the Nats may in fact go the FA route given these choices.
Problems with Presumed Plan : The biggest problem with Ryan Zimmerman is that he's an injury risk who couldn't get his body together make a meaningful playoff contribution. This goes beyond 2013 as he missed meaningful time in both 2008 and 2011. As age catches up with him (he just turned 30) it's more and more likely that these injuries linger. The Nats are currently ill-prepared if Zimmerman goes down for any extended period of time.
Meanwhile LaRoche has been far more reliable when it comes to playing time. And while LaRoche had very much lost his range (in part due to injury) he was reliable with the glove and we have no idea if Ryan will be the same.
Another issue is the loss of the left-handed bat as LaRoche was one of only 3 decent lefties in the line-up for the majority of the season (switch hitting Asdrubal would make it 4 by years end). Losing LaRoche leaves the Nats with only Bryce and Span hitting from the left-side of the plate, with Danny Espinosa, who really shouldn't hit left-handed, being a potential 3rd. While right-handed hitters tend to be less vulnerable to splits a balanced line-up does help make the opponents bullpen usage more difficult.
Since I said the Nats were ill-prepared for a Zimmerman injury you can imagine that I am not high on Tyler Moore. A AAAA batter who gets hot for short stretches and cold for longer ones, Tyler Moore's strikeouts suggest there is no big improvement coming. He also is no great shakes when it comes to defense and hits right-handed just like Zimmerman. His use as a back-up for Adam could be argued given LaRoche's splits. His use as a back-up for Zimmerman would make no sense. Unfortunately the FA 1B pickings are slim with no one you'd even consider a meh bat and good glove guy that you might look to get.
My take : The Nats are in a bad place... sort of. Keeping LaRoche on the team makes a lot of sense given his performance last year and the fact you'd only have to keep him for a year if he agrees on the option. But you do that and there's no room for Zimmerman. He can't play third. He can't play left. Either he becomes a super sub or LaRoche does. It would be 29 million put into a platoon. There are better ways to spend that 15 million. You almost have to let LaRoche walk.
Luckily for the Nats (and why I said "sort of") is that really the only bad thing for the Nats is the possibility Zimmerman isn't healthy. If he is, he can still hit and he is a little more patient than your average Nat, and you could argue their aggressiveness got exploited in the playoffs. As for the defense, Zimm's issues appear to be completely arm-based. Given that he was a plus-fielder before that it's doubtful that mastering 1B will be a big issue. Will he be great? Maybe not. Will he be as good as LaRoch? Probably so. I can easily see Zimm replacing LaRoche's contributions and it's not hard to envision him surpassing them.
As for the back-up... here's the problem. You do have to plan for a back-up for Zimmerman. It's not as much because of age or injury history as it is how he looked at the end of the season. The Nats were desperate for help and yet they wouldn't put Zimm out there on the field. That doesn't bode well. He'll have the off-season to recover but going into 2015 without a clear back-up is a big risk. That means Tyler Moore or possibly the best sensible free agent back-up you can sign Daric Barton (excellent fielder, pre 2014 injury was a LHB that hit righties well) can't really be your long-term injury plan. Unfortunately like I said there isn't a good pure back-up 1B out there. There are guys who will get paid and there are guys who are close to terrible. There are not even really DHs you can stick there in case (maybe Delmon Young but if he goes AL he'll get more playing time so that's what I expect)
So what do I think? I think you give Bryce or Werth a 1B mitt and have them get ready. The Nats have a couple of outfield prospects in Souza and Taylor that they'd like to give playing time. Werth is becoming a statue out there and Bryce is living off the fact he's 21. Rather than force a true 1B back-up into this team with an overpay or bringing in a terrible hitter, let Werth be the de facto injury replacement. That makes the most sense.
Oh and definitely sign Barton and let Moore go. That guy stinks.
Outside the Box Suggestion :
Any outside the box suggestion can't deal in a trade because Ryan's combination of contract and injury status makes him currently untradeable (unlike Ramos who just has less worth than you would want from him). So any outside the box suggestion would be making Ryan a supersub or dealing Span to make room for Ryan (because you aren't dealing Rendon or Bryce and no one is sticking him back at third). I bet the A's would love Span.
But I don't like dealing Span because I'm in "WIN NOW" mode and Span helps you win now. Plus he has a win-now deal which means he'll have to be traded to a team that wants to win now which means you aren't likely going to get something win-now back. So who can the Nats deal for good enough to force Zimm into super sub mode? While I'm intrigued by Carlos Santana, he is a big true outcome guy who the Nats kind of don't have in their line-up, I think a better get would be Edwin Encarnacion. He's a truly elite slugger, can man 1st base and is getting paid relative peanuts ($10 mill for 2015, 10 mill option for 2016) The Blue Jays could possibly be in rebuilding mode. Trade for Edwin.
Your analysis is spot on. I think the solution is Zim / Werth / Souza, and just go with it and be happy.
ReplyDeleteCurious if there are data to show a upside / downside for lefty vs righty at first (fielding wise)?
Anybody see Baseball America's rankings?
ReplyDeleteThey sure love Taylor over there, they have him rated above Betts in the Eastern division.
I absolutely love the idea of Werth being the backup 1B. Souza and Taylor not only have upside as future outfielders (and may win a shot at the LF job after Span leaves and Bryce goes to CF in 2016...or possibly just Taylor in CF if they go that way), but the defense would actually improve with one of them in the OF in Werth's place. And it gets Tyler Moore the heck off the team. Win-win there.
ReplyDeleteHarper the firt base idea for Werth is genius. Though Werth doesn't seem like he would be to happy with it.
ReplyDeleteI don't know that I'd necessarily deal Span, but I'd platoon him next year with Souza. Also, Souza should own a 1B glove at this point because he's the bat you need to get into the lineup and don't have a spot for. If Zim goes down, Souza should be the first person getting PA's and if Zim never goes down you put Souza in the super-sub role because he can play all 3 OF positions--although he's a stretch in CF--and if he can 1B that's maybe 3 games a week you can get him into along with 2-4 more PA's as a pinch-hitter. The problem with this--or any other super-sub plan--is Matt Williams. Properly utilizing a super sub is way beyond his ability. I mean, The Big PBN couldn't figure out how to use Detwiler or Hairston this year, let alone how to juggle a super-sub type. Whatever, the Nats do needs to be paint-by-numbers simple.
ReplyDeleteOh, yeah, also the Werth to 1B idea is great, except if Werth were willing to accept that he'd already be playing LF in favor of the much better arm the Nats have over there. Not going to happen.
ReplyDelete@Jimmy Thanks for the link. Can't believe they were that high on Taylor. Still think he's another one of these tools guys everyone gets excited about, but the tools never translate to baseball ability. Sincerely hope I'm wrong, but the cupboard looks pretty bare with regards to position players for the Nats.
ReplyDeleteAlso, he doesn't get much play, but I've heard fantabulous things about Lopez. Who some scouts have said could be a difference maker at the big league level. Kudos to the Nats renewed International efforts.
They not only have Taylor above Betts, they have Taylor WAY above Cole. Is there anyone commenting here who, homers that we are, would take Taylor ahead of Betts? Is there anyone here who would choose Taylor above Cole, even considering our desperate need for position player talent? I sure wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteWerth as a backup to Zimm makes total sense. My only worry is that they both might be on the DL at the same time. So maybe get Souza some reps at 1B too.
Does anyone think Werth wouldn't play 1B if he were penciled in there? Like, seriously? I'm sure he'd be grumpy about it, but he'd do it. I attribute his continued presence in RF over Harper as some kind of Matt Williams reward-the-vets thing, not Werth somehow demanding it.
@jw and @CE yeah those rankings are weird I think they just have a love affair with Taylor. they also have Cole Ranked #7 in the international league.
ReplyDeleteWerth has a guaranteed gazillion dollars contract and I'm sure just like Zimmy did, he will play wherever it 'best helps the team win' yadda, yadda.
ReplyDeleteDaric Barton? He bats LH, but has career reverse platoon splits (.235/.346/.342/.688 vs. RHP (1508 plate appearances); .278/.381/.427/.809 vs. LHP (577 plate appearances)). He might be better than Moore. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteI'm not really worried about Zim's hamstring injury lingering into next year. It did linger this year because he rushed back and then got left on the field to re-injure it when he should have been lifted for a pinch runner. His shoulder issues are cronic, but that's why he's going to 1b.
I'm not as down on Moore as Harper, but I'm not as high on him as some others. Moore's problem is that the existence of Souza makes Moore redundant. Outside of (maybe) 1b defense there's nothing that Moore does that Souza doesn't do better. So Souza is my choice first backup at 1b as well as at OF. Souza at least played a full season at 1b in 2011 before shifting to OF full time. It's hard to know how much of that shift was because he struggled with the position and how much was to make room for more limited players (Bloxom in 2012-13, Moore and Peterson at AAA in 2014).
There is no reason to think that Werth to 1b will happen, and little reason to think that it should. Werth played 8 games at 1b in 1997 and another 28 games in 2001 as they were trying to find a place to play other than catcher. He committed 5 errors in those 36 games, a smooth 22 errors per season rate (Nats' first basemen collectively committed 11 errors in 2014). Other than that Werth has never played infield at all. It's quite possible that it's not that Werth does or doesn't want to play 1b, it's that the team has correctly figured out that he's be bloody awful at it.
Let's be fair, too small of a sample size to call him 'bloody awful'.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying the sample size of 36 games at first alone is enough to reach the conclusion that Werth is not suited to the position. I'm saying that it is quite possible, even likely, that the organizations that tried him out at first (Baltimore in 1997; Toronto in 2001) as an alternative to catcher realized, through close observation of the player in general, as he practiced as well as in games, that his skill set is poorly suited to infield play in general and 1b in particular. Resulting in him being moved to the outfield. Now 13 more years have elapsed where Werth has not played any infield position; I doubt that his skills have improved in that time.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom line is that just because I haven't seen Werth try to play 1b doesn't mean that the issue hasn't been carefully considered and ultimately rejected by those who work with him on a day-to-day basis as he goes about the business of playing baseball. It is just possible that they know more about playing first in general, and Werth's skill set in relation to that task in specific, than I do.
If Beane were willing to part with Stephen Vogt, he'd be a decent LH bench fit since he can catch OK and started 40 games at 1st for Oakland. But he's cheaper than Jaso, so I suspect he's the guy they'd rather keep.
ReplyDeleteJohn C: You're ignoring another explanation, which is that Werth was an average or even + defender in the outfield for most of his career, and that's more valuable (and more flexible) than playing average or + defense at 1B. He's tall, he's lanky, and he's had a lot of experience catching and picking balls. I tend to think he'd be a perfectly serviceable 1B.
ReplyDelete::insert Ron Washington clip from Moneyball here, but whatever::
Lumley is right re the need to make things paint by numbers simple for Williams. Here is his quote to Kilgore on whether, with hindsight, he would manage the bullpen differently in game 4:
ReplyDelete“There’s all kinds of different theories, and there’s all kinds of different possibilities,” Williams said. “We look at it and say, ‘It didn’t happen for us. It didn’t work for us.’ The decisions that are made are made on every day basis, regardless if it’s Game 1 or the last game. Sometimes they work; sometimes they don’t. But we have to make those decisions, and that’s part of the responsibility. And part of the responsibility is to understand when it doesn’t work, there’s going to be questions. Could we have made different decisions? Yes. Could it have worked differently? Yes. Could those decisions that we made have worked? Yes. It is what it is at this point. What we can do is learn from it. What we can do is understand that that’s part of it and move on and look to 2015, and try to get back to the postseason again. That’s what we strive for. At this point, that’s all I’m doing, is working hard to get back a point where we have an opportunity to get back to the playoffs again.”
ReplyDeleteLaRoche leaving makes the team worse... but he will be fielding multiple year offers and would have to leave a lot of money on the table to come back to DC for one more year... So my preference is he comes back, but realistically it ain't happening.
No on Werth to first... he will be horrible playing infield. Werth does the least damage defensively in the outfield... preferably left field :)
And I think Souza is very talented too, and am in favor of giving him a look next year, but if we get hit with injuries again, we have to be ready to go out and minimize the impact via trades again.
It sounds great to say go out and improve the bench, but either the guys available won't help, or they are unwilling at this point in their careers to play a reserve role and will get a starting gig elsewhere...I'm all for rotating some of our prospects through and seeing if anybody sticks... so Zim to 1st, Souza to bench and let's go.
ReplyDeleteLaRoche leaving makes the team worse... but he will be fielding multiple year offers and would have to leave a lot of money on the table to come back to DC for one more year... So my preference is he comes back, but realistically it ain't happening.
No on Werth to first... he will be horrible playing infield. Werth does the least damage defensively in the outfield... preferably left field :)
And I think Souza is very talented too, and am in favor of giving him a look next year, but if we get hit with injuries again, we have to be ready to go out and minimize the impact via trades again.
It sounds great to say go out and improve the bench, but either the guys available won't help, or they are unwilling at this point in their careers to play a reserve role and will get a starting gig elsewhere...I'm all for rotating some of our prospects through and seeing if anybody sticks... so Zim to 1st, Souza to bench and let's go.
Take on meeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
ReplyDeleteTake me ooooooooooonnnnnn
:-)
I'll be gone....in a day or twooooooo!
ReplyDeleteGotta be happy for Mikey
@anon - your post just angries up the blood again about The Big PBN. Just when I was getting over it.
ReplyDeleteTranslation of that quote: "here are some words. I will now say more words until you stop asking questions."
Much as we hate to admit it, KC's pitching success has been pretty much paint by numbers too, with head-scratchers like even starting a bum such as Guthrie over Duffy working out - so MW will have a ready-made excuse.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the messy discussion that 2B will be...
ReplyDeleteGetting back to who's on first, there's a guy available who has a slash line of 286/352/476, has a Gold Glove on the infield, is only 30, and is signed at a reasonable rate for an extended period. (In contract, the top bopper on the free agent list, Victor Martinez, has a career OPS of only 20 points higher, will be 36, is suspect with the glove, and will cost at least 50 percent more.) The guy I described is Ryan Zimmerman. Let's don't overthink this one. Yes, there are the injury concerns, but there are no guarantees with anyone. (Just ask the Rangers how Prince is working out for them.)
ReplyDeleteYes, as Werth four-hopped the throw from short right with a catcher (Posey) running, I immediately wanted to send him to first, but as John C. points out, he's really made much more for OF - although LEFT field.
And yes, Souza can play 1B. He worked out there as recently as last fall in AZ. (I'm thinking he may have made an appearance or two at 1B in spring training as well.) Anyway, he has considerable IF experience (mostly at 3B) and would not have a problem fielding the position.
I respect Moore considerably for the hard work he has done in AAA the last two years, but I don't see a place for him on the 2015 Nats. He's just not very versatile. I hope the Nats can get something for him in a trade, and I wish him well. He'll always be one of the folk heroes of the magical 2012 season.
Souza with a mitt:
ReplyDeletehttp://nationalsprospects.com/2013/10/scenes-from-arizona/
Also includes Luke Erickson's take in the comments on Souza at 1B at Potomac.
Good catch, KW! I should have remembered Luke's assessment of Souza at first, because I was the one who asked the question he was responding to.
ReplyDeleteAh, well; they say that memory is the second thing to go ... and I can't remember what the first thing is!
Is no one else concerned that first basemen still have to make strong, accurate throws? Just ask Matt Adams. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats management are looking to get rid of Zimmerman's contract by hook or by crook. I'd prefer that over dealing with the daily headache of trying to squeeze him into various lineups, knowing that he can't play any defensive position effectively anymore.
ReplyDeleteJohn C. - yes, I thought you might get a chuckle out of that.
ReplyDeleteThrows from 1B - generally much shorter than throws from 3B, and not required that often. It's a valid point, though.
Zim's contract - it's actually less per year than the qualifying offers will be. I don't think the Nats would have trouble finding a team that would take that contract, although they'd be selling low right now with the recent injury history.