Blake "Not only a fastball but a fastball with sink!" Treinen
Entered 1 game when Nats were down 2 : Made it worse
Entered 8 games when Nats were down 1 : Made it worse 5 times
Entered 3 games when Nats were tied : Made it worse 1 times
Entered 3 games when Nats were up 1 : Never made it worse!
Entered 3 games when Nats were up 2 : Made it worse 2 times
Combined close game appearances : 18.
Made it worse : 9 times
50% soul crushing average
Combined close game appearances : 18.
Made it worse : 9 times
50% soul crushing average
Aaron "Storen blows a playoff game and we get Soriano. I do it and guys are dealt to make me a set late inning guy!" Barrett
Entered 1 game when Nats were down 2 : Didn't make it worse!
Entered 5 game when Nats were down 1 : Made it worse 2 times
Entered 8 games when Nats were tied : Made it worse 5 times.
Entered 6 games when Nats were up 1 : Made it worse once.
Entered 0 games when Nats were up 2 :
Combined close game appearances : 20.
Made it worse : 8 times
40% soul crushing average
These aren't necessary games blown for the Nats but when you give up runs in close games you dramatically effect the chances of the Nats winning. When you hold your ground you help the Nats a little bit. I don't care how good their stuff is but killing the Nats every other close game appearance is not good enough.
I didn't look closely at anyone else but I think Grace is next at like 33% SCA and Hill/Rivero/Martin combined for like 80% or 75% or something. What's a great reliever look like? Storen's done it twice in 15 times, (13.3%) and not since mid April.
David Carpenter saves the day? Probably not but worth a try. Anything is worth a try really.
Combined close game appearances : 20.
Made it worse : 8 times
40% soul crushing average
These aren't necessary games blown for the Nats but when you give up runs in close games you dramatically effect the chances of the Nats winning. When you hold your ground you help the Nats a little bit. I don't care how good their stuff is but killing the Nats every other close game appearance is not good enough.
I didn't look closely at anyone else but I think Grace is next at like 33% SCA and Hill/Rivero/Martin combined for like 80% or 75% or something. What's a great reliever look like? Storen's done it twice in 15 times, (13.3%) and not since mid April.
David Carpenter saves the day? Probably not but worth a try. Anything is worth a try really.
Livo needs to open a Veteran Moxie school for our pitchers. Nevermind that he was a starter for most of his career and not an exceptional one for the most part. Or that he never had success as a reliever. Okay this idea is not very well thought out but I just liked how Livo's Veteran Moxie School sounded. Sorry.
ReplyDeleteBring on David Carpenter. He will at least not be the worst at his job of all the Carpenters associated with the team.
Clippard....come back please!!!!
ReplyDeleteUGH... they need more than just Carpenter- even if he works out. Thornton and Janssen may still be OK, but we are really missing Clippard and Stammen.
ReplyDeleteOh and Harper, getting back to the question of last 2 months vs. three years before that, well, it seems like it's not even close and the articles focused on team performance, not individual performance. Even given the fact that injuries and such are generally more factored into the last 2 months than the preseason projections, the preseason projections are still much, much more reliable.
ReplyDeleteI know, intuitively, it seems like analyzing all these details about injuries and poor performance which might indicate underlying injuries should help predictions quite a bit. But it seems that one can lose sight of the forest for the trees. I think we are missing the fact that the Nats are an exceptional ball club and perhaps they've had some set backs but they should be okay. I mean, if you haven't read this, take a look:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-meaning-of-the-standings-so-far/
The Nats were a very good team. The Nats probably still are a very good team. This recent bullpen shittiness will probably vanish, for example. Werth will stay injured, yes, but Harper will probably continue to beat his preseason projections. Or maybe he will slump but Taylor will get hot. Just saying.
Not to be a Negative Nancy, but this team (either players or management/or a combination of the two) are making way too many mental errors. For example:
ReplyDeleteLast night's game was atrocious. It was as if the Brewer's were saying "here, have this win please." And we said, "no that's okay - you take it."
In the bottom of the fourth inning, Adam Lind's double moves Braun to 3rd: 0 outs, runners at 2nd and 3rd. Ramirez hits a grounder to Espi - Braun scores easily. No issue there - the problem I have is what Espinosa does with the ball and where Rendon was on the play. Looking at the replay, as Espi fields this ball, Lind is hung out to dry halfway down the base path. Espi could have run him down (may/may not have caught him) or he could throw it to second to get him caught in a run down. If he does, Lind is out and we have 1 out with a runner on 1st. However, no one covered 2nd. Instead he throws out Ramirez at first Lind jogs to 3rd. Now we have a runner on third, 1 out. And wouldn't ya know it? The next hitter chops a RBI grounder to first, ANOTHER UNNECESSARY run scored. Where was Rendon on that play? It seems "rust" carries over into many facets of the game.... Let me give you another example:
Top 7th: Rendon walks with one out to bring up Escobar. Yuney is sitting at 0-2 with a runner on first. I don't know who put this play on, but god help me. Rendon takes off for second, Yuney swings at a fastball chin-level and Rendon is gunned down. Strike em out-throw em out, double play. If this was Rendon trying to make something happen, shame on him. If this was from Williams, what are you thinking? Worst case scenario, Escobar strikes out and Bryce comes up with a runner on base for once. Instead, Bryce leads off yet another inning - walks - and the black hole behind him can't drive him in.
I feel like these types of things get left out of the conversation when discussing what is wrong with this team. The mental errors, the questionable bullpen moves, and poor defense have got to stop if this team expected to be playing in October.
Btw - Rendon looks awful at turning a double-play. Not sure what this love-affair with Escobar at third is for...
That's my rant - at least we have ZNN on the hill tonight - maybe we can squeak one out 1-0.
Piling on Barrett after last night is simply adding undeserved insult to injury. Barrett was "soul crushing" last night? Here's what Barrett did: he got a strikeout and three ground balls, only one of which was struck with more than minimal force. Here's what he got:
ReplyDelete-On the strikeout Ramos's block attempt was poor, and his reaction to the ball rolling away was so delayed that the decaying remains of Aramis Ramirez were able to get to first base.
-Grounder #1: about as easy a GIDP ball as you'll see. Rendon (who had a pretty bad game all around) double clutches on the pivot and then throws the ball away. Now a much faster runner (Peterson) is on second rather than Ramirez.
-Grounder #2: a tapper between the first and second baseman that Robinson gets to. Barrett makes a nice play busting it to first to beat a fast runner (Segura), finding the bag while catching the throw.
-Grounder #3: Gennett grounder gets past Escobar, who barely moves. This play, incidentally, vividly demonstrates why Escobar grades out poorly at third despite a decent fielding percentage; he plays so shallow that his range is very limited.
Barrett was the pitcher when the soul crushing occurred last night - but he was the victim, not the cause.
cass - fun fact about correlation, a 0.27 barely registers. So what he's really saying is that neither is a good predictor of the season to come but if you have to pick one... pick preseason projections.
ReplyDeleteMost relief pitchers are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you're gonna get.
ReplyDelete@anon - agreed completely. Well managed teams just don't do this crap. I think that's two strike-em-out-throw-em-out double plays ***in front of Bryce*** in the span of a week. Yunel whiffing at a very high pitch in both cases. The Nats are situationally awful, and with all the injuries they just can't afford to be.
ReplyDeleteMove harper to the 2 spot. If he's going to carry the offense he needs maximum abs.
ReplyDeleteIf Harper's going to carry the offense, he'll need to learn to run bases...
ReplyDeleteEscobar should play 2b. Not a good defender at either but Rendon is a great defender at 3b and only an average one at 2b.
ReplyDeleteBarrett wasn't bad last night but he wasn't great either.
Anon- True most relief pitchers are streaky, but most teams have at least two consistent ones to pitch the 8th and 9th we only have one great one in Drew. (great as a reference to the regular season)
@AR - Can't agree more about the positioning. But while Zim's on the DL I might almost want to see Escobar at 1b and Rendon at 3rd. But absolutely agreed Rendon should be stationed at 3rd permanently.
ReplyDelete@Harper - Great post! This is why I love this board so much. Simple, objective analysis of exactly what's been bugging us(me) over the last few days. I can't imagine a 50% "blowing the game" rate is good or even average, but if you had asked me to guess before this post I would have said it was upwards of 75% for each of them. Tempered my wrath just a bit
@Rest of the thread - also agree about the poor decision-making team wide. It starts with the manager, but it trickles down to the players and we've seen it lose us games both last year and this year.
Yes Barrett did his job last night and got bad results, but you are looking at results driven analysis. Harper didn't count the Trienen game where the Mets hit 3 rockets which turned into a ground out on a good defensive play, a single and a line out double play. I think the point of the post is to say these two guys have been exceptionally bad. And considering how terrible Matt Williams is at managing a bullpen when it is reliable, this just compounds the entire situation.
ReplyDeleteTreinen? More like Failnin', amirite?
ReplyDeleteBJD207 - I'd guess something like 25% "making it worse" is average. That would be a run or two every four outings which would be like a 3.00+ ERA. Seems about right for just average distribution of events.
ReplyDeleteI think we really need to do an over/under (like with Roark's ERA) with Cyborg's OBP for the season. I'm thinking the line should be around .465 or .470?
ReplyDeleteSo who do we have to give up to get some decent set-up relief pitching (Aroldis Chapman would be nice)? Has the value of the club's supposed minor league depth in pitching been damaged by the fact that we can't draw on it to generate more holds? Do we really want the 2015 Clippard (3.2 ERA, position rank 49)?
ReplyDelete