Lucas Giolito did not pitch well yesterday. He had trouble throwing stirkes and when he did he was hittable. In my opinion, that's how he pitched in his first game too, but the Mets never challenged him to throw strikes and the rain delay kept him from pitching deeper into the game. This is something the 21 year old will have to work through, and given his pedigree he will do it. Eventually.
Prospects are prospects. The occasional one makes his mark immediately. Kris Bryant. Noah Syndergaard. But far more often they take time to be impactful, if it even happens. The higher the prospect the better the odds of both immediate and long term impact, but by no means is it guaranteed. So when you look at Giolito and Turner don't assume they are going to be great, or even good, this year.
What should the Nats goal for the series be? I am aiming for a split. I like to keep a "series" lead ahead of the second place team. Three games so that entering each new typical series it would take a sweep by them and the Nats getting swept to fully lose the lead before the natural reset a new series takes place. A split or better (which is now limited to 3-1 win) would keep that type of lead. The commenter said one win would be enough and I can see that. Having a two game lead coming out of this, is not ideal, but is far from disastrous.
The same names are struggling at the plate. Zimm, Robinson in his place, Werth. But for the most part this recent stumble bumble has been pitching related. Ross, Gio, middle relief. I keep saying this but it keeps being true - these things happen. As long as it doesn't' become a systemic issue you just have to roll with it. Wait for the 2nd and 3rd starts, the 2nd, 3rd weeks of relief pitching.
Giolito was certainly not impressive, but it's only his second start in the bigs, and he did not give up as many runs as the relief did. When the team scores 7 runs and still loses, sure the starter was bad, but the relief was just as bad. The latter problem has been more consistent than the former. When the Nats win, anecdotally it feels like it's usually in spite of the pen. Since this seems like something that could be fixed without giving up a ton, it looks like the obvious place to improve mid-season.
ReplyDeleteOne head scratcher from Dusty last night that left me thinking. Bringing in Solis to replace Belisle in a 1 run game. Major crowd, big lights, big city. Not sure, even playing matchups, that I bring in the kids when you have Belisle actually dealing and Kelly in the BP. To me, in that first game of a big series and wanting to get momentum back in a 1 run game, I leave the vets in and tell Solis and Trienen, "Watch these guys." 2nd or 3rd game of the series, with the pressure less is a breaking in game for the young guys. Nats win that game last night, they're in the Mets heads. 4 games in a row losing to the Nats and hope fading.
ReplyDeleteHope is a dangerous thing to give a wounded foe. Now the Mets know they can play against the Nats and will likely play better because of it. Split is my best case scenario, with hopes that Stras outdeals Syndergaard or Gio beats Harvey (Or Harvey has surgery and Gio beats AAA guy).
My goal is to sweep the last three, having failed to win last night and thus sweep all four. Seriously, how can the goal be anything else? Since every game is winnable, it's a simple formula. Win your next game. That's it.
ReplyDeleteI'll say this. I saw Giolito in Richmond last year and I just didn't find him impressive. He looked very hittable then, as he certaibnly did last night. The cruve is pretty great, bu tif you can't control it it's worthless. His velocity is solid but he seems to be more in the 93-96 range, not really touching anything higher. The FB is also strauight as an arrow. I don't know, I'm not a scout but I'm real worried about this kid long term. I just do not see elite stuff there at all. it's one of those things where all I'm hearing is how great he is, but I just don't see it. I saw it with Stras. I saw it with JZimm. I saw it with Ross. Just have a bad feeling about this kid.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, his performance was the worst part about last night. Well, he and the Crybaby. I swear, the players I loathe the most ALWAYS kill us. always. I knew Flores was going to win the game somwhow like that. I can;t stand Nimmo either, so look for him to be a big impact in the final 3.
I know its only one game, but something was really off last night. You just sort of get that feeling...that maybe this is going to get ugly really quick. Same feeling I had last August. Mets are hitting out of their minds (Ill go to my grave, their lineup is garbage and just seems to go on these lucky streaks immediately after it seems all hope is lost for tghem). It's highly irritating.
Ah well. gte TT up here....NOW! We need every hit and walk and steal we can muster at this point. If it isn't a dogfight already, it could very well beceome one after tomight.
Stras....you're up. What you got? Tonight is big.
Well, last night did nothing to assuage my concerns about the bullpen.
ReplyDeleteBy golly, I'm going to hang with you guys even if I have to permanently destroy the arm of everyone in my rotation in order to do it!
ReplyDeleteAnon 7:36:
ReplyDeleteWe need every hit and walk and steal we can muster? They had 7 runs, 12 hits, 4 HRs, and had 4 two-out RBIs. I don't think you can ask for much more.
Also, every single scout and evaluator has the kid as potentially elite. I believe someone referred to him as a potential "rotation demi-god". Not saying I buy in to everything every scout says or even most of it, and there are obviously misses, but I think I'll take their word over an anonymous blog commenter who, presumably, does not make his/her money as a professional baseball team staff member. Especially when it comes to something as subjective as the eye test.
Excuse me, 3 two-out RBIs.
ReplyDelete@SammyKent:
ReplyDeleteMy goal is to sweep the last 75, having failed to win last night and 35 games before that, and thus sweep all 162 games. Seriously, how can the goal be anything else? Since every game is winnable, it's a simple formula. Win your next game. That's it.
If 'Lito can throw that curveball for strikes, he'll be awesome. His fastball last night had some cut on it and he was throwing 94,95,96.
ReplyDeleteHe was not "hittable" he was wild and the umpire was squeezing him, so he had to throw to the middle of the plate and major leaguers will crush balls in the middle of the zone. And there were EIGHT HRs last night. The ball was flying outta CITI field.
Did you see the LOOK on Yoenis Cespedes' face when the curveball came? The ump called it a ball, but I'm pretty sure Yo pooped a little in his pants.
The kid is gonna be alright. My money's on more than alright.
Booyah, I hear you....not sayiong I'm right on Giolito, just expressing an opinion. I very much hope I'm wrong. He is very young, so if it takes him another 1- 1 1/2 to put it togther that may just be the issue.
ReplyDeleteas for the runs, I'll stand by that. we need everything we can get. yes we scored "enough to win" last night but, we didnt win. we lost. Also, we've come off some recent games where we struggle, we're up and down right now. Our BP is shaley, at best, right now. we can almost count on them giving up some runs in most games. If TT is even slightly better than what we have right now, we need that,. Its his time, he played in a high lecvel conference in college and is 23. Time to use him.
Not sure where you put TT if he comes up. Revere was 2 for 5 with a triple. Danny had an off night with 3Ks, and I think he was trying too hard and swinging too hard at junk in the dirt. It happens when you're on a hot streak and the team is behind, pressing to be the guy who gets your team back.
ReplyDeleteOnly role for TT at this point is CF starts for Revere against right hander starters or late innings replacement/pinch runner. Nats are stuck in a weird .500 funk since the 7 game slide followed by the 5 game streak. If they can split or 3-1 this series against the Mets, then they reach the break with a 4 or 5 game lead. I'd have taken that with a happy smile on my face April 1.
I don't disagree with Turner. I say win now, damn the torpedoes, etc. Although depending on who he'd be replacing, it's questionable whether he'd be better (right now at this instant, or over the course of the second half) or not. I think Dusty is keeping the extra arm until the break because of all the long games/crappy relief lately, and then they bring up TT after the break.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, you can't structure your team around "our bullpen is terrible and 7 runs is never enough". First, our bullpen isn't terrible, last night notwithstanding. Second, it just isn't realistic. 7 runs is almost always enough. Except when it isn't.
Also, can we please talk about Perez having his first multi-hit game since 2007? Nothing makes me happier than relievers getting hits.
i prefer when relievers stop others from getting hits...
DeleteBetween last night and that amazing bunt back in that crazy April game, I says MOAR PERREZ AYBEES!!!!
ReplyDeleteI saw a lot to like about Giolito yesterday. His fastball has life and some (but not tons of) movement, and his curve is going to be special once he can be a threat to throw it for strikes... and his changeup gets some swing-and-misses. Without being able to throw the curve for strikes, it makes him a different pitcher, basically one dimensional, until he can start putting the fastball where he wants it. I expect he will get that curve over, eventually. He'll be good.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that would help him is hiding the ball better. It's not quite as bad as how Taylor Jordan would show the hitter his grip, way back behind his head, prior to release... but LG will need to improve that part of his game eventually. I believe hiding the ball is a part of Kershaw's sustained success, and to a lesser but significant degree, Roark's performance this year.
My only thought on last night: if that Murphy shot got past AC in the 9th, Familia was on the verge of coming totally unglued with Harper up next. That play really sucked.
ReplyDeleteThat 9th inning hurt A LOT. That ball should've gotten past Cabrera, and then that slide by Werth was literally identical to his slide where Murphy beat it out by a millimeter to keep the rally going. I understand the slide rule and I agree Werth probably deserved to have the out at first called, but then so should the original play where they called him safe. It's bull. at least be consistent, don't decide a game based on that
ReplyDeleteMets fan here - the slide rule is a joke. I said immediately that he should be called out in both the 5th and 9th (because of the stupid rule) but also said this is bad for baseball. In the 2nd one Murph had no shot of being thrown out. Baseball needs to figure this out.
ReplyDeleteOne good thing to note. Bryce appears to be back, or at least heating up rapidly. He has 3 bombs in July (same number as he had in June).One thing to keep in mind is how young Giolito is. High school pitchers take a while, and he missed a year to TJ. Think about Jameson Taillon. He was drafted AFTER BRYCE and just came up to the majors. Clearly the Nats weren't quite ready to call him up to majors unless there was an injury. Keith Law said yesterday Giolito is pretty close to a guaranteed 1-3 starter, and very probably an absolute animal, no matter how he does in 2016. Would be great if he can really kick ass immediately, but give him a break. The Mets are like unconscious right now. They just beat Arrieta and Lester back to back by mauling them with their bats. Chill it.
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced Familia threw a SINGLE strike last night. We let him off the hook big time.
ReplyDeletelooks like Harvey is down for the season.
ReplyDeleteand TT, plus at least one other player will be coming up for tonight's game.
ReplyDeleteBTW the place you play Turner is 2B, moving Murphy to 1B, since Zim is clearly not right (or playing like hes not right).
ReplyDeleteI don't like putting Turner 2B in a spot he's not played recently. I'd put TT at SS where you want him long-term. Zim is on the DL, so put Murphy at 1B, Espinosa at 2B, where he has played most as a National during the Desmond reign at SS. That's actually a pretty solid infield as long as TT is as-advertised and Espinosa can maintain his recent form.
ReplyDeleteOdd to me to send Giolito down and call up MAT. They didn't really give Giolito much of a chance to figure it out, but then maybe this is supposed to be a "win now" move.
Kenny B, Giolito was sent down because of the All Star Break. He won't get another start before then, has options, and we need more bench depth for the Mets series... especially if Zim can't play. He will probably be recalled after the break, pending Ross's DL stint timeline.
ReplyDelete@Z11: Speaking of not throwing strikes... in an otherwise good game for Rendon, he had two lousy at bats in big spots with ducks on the pond in the 5th and 7th innings. Swinging and missing at first-pitch sliders, with bases loaded first time, then with guys at 1st and 2nd and 2 outs. He got behind, and did not make the pitcher work to throw strikes in those high pressure spots.
ReplyDelete@Vdub Well that makes more sense, and sounds more Rizzo-like. He doesn't usually have such a short hook.
ReplyDeleteSuck it up Syndergaard, I told you to keep on pitching!!!
ReplyDeleteKenny, you're going to take the guy who was the NL player of the week last week and has probably been the best SS in MLB the last month and move him to make Turner feel more comfortable? I'm no Espinosa fan, but my God what does he have to do to get people to leave him at SS?
ReplyDeletePutting the "respect/deference" issue aside, substantively the move doesn't make much sense. TT has played 2b a lot more recently than Espinosa - Turner has played six games at 2b this season, five in AAA and one in MLB. Espinosa hasn't played 2b since last year.
Never fear, Dusty apparently has no interest in prospects, so Trea will stay on the bench, where his youthful butt belongs.
ReplyDeleteTurner starting at 2nd, Murph at 1st today. IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING...until TT gets sent back down over the break :/
ReplyDelete@John C., I just think if you want TT to be your SS of the future, then put him there. Danny Espinosa is a big boy and an excellent defensive 2B, as we have seen. I think whether you have Espinosa or Turner at SS is a fairly marginal difference either way, but if you want Turner as your SS of the future, then you need to see how he plays there in the majors. It has nothing to do with dislike of Espinosa. They should both be playing, it's just a question of where you put them.
ReplyDeleteAnd the "substantive" argument is not ironclad. Why is recency the only metric that matters. Sure, Turner has played a few games at 2B this year, but Espinosa has played hundreds of games at 2B over the last few years. Meanwhile, Turner has played the vast majority of his games at SS, while Espinosa has not until this year.
Obviously Dusty/Rizzo agree with you, since they're doing it your way. I just don't think it's as obvious as you make it out to be.
Meh-ts
ReplyDeleteYASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
ReplyDeleteMETS, NATS NATS NATS!!!
:-)