If you haven't been able to tell my interest in the Nats is in a waning period. I feel like the division has been sewn up for a month now. Papelbon is gone. Strasburg and Ross aren't back yet. Dog days and all, plus like I said yesterday, there are plenty of interesting baseball situations going on that have more hold on me than if the Nats host 3 or 2 games in the NLDS. (It'll be 3 - the Nats schedule is too easy to fall away). So I took a look at the Nats past 4 weeks of baseball to see if there was anything going on that I wasn't keyed into.
First thing it seems like Bryce is BRYCE again. He actually has a higher OPS than either Turner or Rendon, the two poster children for "Nats hitting well in August". He does not have a lot of homers (only 3 - Heisey has 3 in the same time period) but he's hitting .338 / .422 / .592 over the past 4 weeks and has driven in 19 runs. He's not going to get the MVP and he's back behind Trout in the pecking order*, but who cares as long as he's BRYCE for the playoffs.
Jayson Werth is only hitting .222. It was brought up during his "on-base streak" but Werth was having a lot of one-hit or one-walk games to do it and wasn't really boosting his overall stats as much as you might have thought. As far as my theory that he can walk or he can hit for power - he's currently in "power mode" having 3 homers and a double in the last week - with no walks. Like I said this isn't bad at this point. I'll take him doing one thing well. The alternative is far more likely doing nothing well, than doing multiple things well.
Clint Robinson is doing better with more playing time. He started playing more around July 8th and has hit .270 since then. It's been all singles - literally 1 XBH in those 34 games, but he's doing much better than Zimm. In Clint's last 5 starts he's 8-19 with 3 walks. Yes, those are probably favorable match-ups. Well keep playing him in favorable match-ups then.
Speaking of Zimm - no better since coming back. He started with a 3 hit night and has had 4 hits since giving him a line of .175 / .209 / .275 with 10 Ks. We'll give another week or so but early indications is my "just sit him for the rest of 2016" plan seems easily arguable.
When Robinson starts, the bench has become just Heisey as Revere, Goodwin, Lobaton, Difo all are not hitting.
The veteran middle relief has really taken a hit. Oliver Perez (12.71 ERA, 2.647 WHIP) Petit (11.00, 1.778), have had terrible Augusts. I knew they were bad but I didn't know they were this bad.
Why did the Nats trade for Rep? Because Solis has been sneaky bad. You can't rely on someone with a 2.000 WHIP. That's not going to work long term. They needed a reliable lefty arm and at this point of the season all they can do is throw stuff at the wall to see if it sticks.
On the other side of the mound, Melancon has been very good as has Belisle. Kelley and Treinen (one terrible outing) have both been better than their ERAs would suggest. So big right hand outs and any normal SP outing should be well covered.
All in all this may be an issue for the regular season until the rotation sorts out Lopez not against the Braves, Cole, and Giolito have all been various shades of disappointing and the Nats will have to reach for 4-5 innings occasionally. But for the playoffs? I'd hope that wasn't the case.
*Trout is hitting .319 / .436 / .562 for the year. He'll probably hit 30 homers, drive in 100, steal 20+, score 125. Remember when we had the people clamoring "Where's Machado?!" He has a terrible July just like Bryce - .204 / .288 / .337. He's having a hell of an August (10 homers) though but he wasn't able to keep pace with Trout either. It's Trout #1, everyone else lining up behind him.
What's the latest on Drew? He was a pretty solid contributor earlier this year. It'd be great to have that back for the playoffs, but I'd worry he'll need time to shake off the rust.
ReplyDeleteLopez and Petit have been TERRIBLE. Can the Nats replace them on the playoff roster? When Strasburg and Ross come back, that means two fewer pitchers on the 25 man (playoff) roster. Mark R. looks to be the LOOGY. Ross can be long relief. Will also be interesting to see if Sean Burnett can contribute.
ReplyDeleteIf Drew comes back for the playoffs, I suppose MAT gets dropped.
Looks like the DC Strangler wasn't able to find a home. That seems actually a bit surprising.
ReplyDeleteThe problem for the strangler is that he wants to close. He needs to realize that is unlikely at this stage of his strangling career. Plus, despite what the Nats might say, the strangler if viewed as a clubhouse cancer (overused phrase I know).
ReplyDeleteI think they have to ride it out with Zim at first. Believe it or not, I think Murphy's glove (or lack thereof) plays better at second. Robinson can play occasionally. I think Petit makes the postseason roster based on experience. Perez may as well, but I'm less confident about that.
For me, the offense is the major question of the playoffs. I think their pitching will find a way to at least do well. With Zim playing that is 7-8-9 are automatic outs. That makes scoring a lot tougher.
Our only hope for advancing at all, much less far into the playoffs is for our starters to go eight innings or the bats to somehow come alive and give that miserable bullpen seven or eight run leads after six or seven innings.
ReplyDeleteI think Dusty should stop playing matchup. Our bullpen is such a crapshoot. You don't know what you're going to get out of these guys until they actually stand on the mound and deliver. They may be great; they may be awful. You just don't know. If he brings someone in to pitch to two guys in the seventh and he gets them out, why not let him stay in? I say if you have to go the pen, pick a guy based on whatever criteria you want, and as long as he's getting people out, let him pitch as many as he can. If he gets in trouble, don't wait. Pull him and bring in the next guy.
robot - things have been good. Seems like early Sept isn't out of the question.
ReplyDeletePapelbon would already be on the Cubs or the Red Sox right now, but he's refusing to sign for the same exact reason he requested we release him: he seriously thinks that he still has the talent and the leverage to demand being the closer.
ReplyDeleteHe's in complete and total denial about where he is in his career and what he has left in the tank. And if he doesn't change his "closer or nothing" attitude, his major league career is over.
FYI, Werth is hitting .248
ReplyDeleteLane - I knew someone would say that - I mean .222 in last 4 weeks but I didn't spell it out. my bad.
ReplyDeleteAh, got it! I figured you were looking for a new pedant commenter anyway... Love the blog/analysis, thanks!
ReplyDeleteWe all agree that the best lineup includes Murphy at 1b, Turner at 2b and either MAT or Revere in center, correct?
ReplyDeleteZim has to sit if this continues. Murphy's terrible defense goes away when he plays first, and then the team upgrades defensively at 2 other key positions.
I don't agree. I would stick with Zim (and Robinson) for now, at least. Zim hits as well as Revere or MAT, and he has greater upside. More importantly, Zim is a pretty good first baseman, able to catch one-hop throws, and snare hard hit balls down the line. Murphy has hands of rock, unable to field at 2B or 1B. (I got a big laugh out of his full out stretch at 2B to snag a rocket, and then he threw from his knees about 15 feet wide of first base.)
ReplyDeleteNow I'll admit I haven't looked at any defensive stats (which are meh to begin with), but Murphy's "terrible" defense at 2B seems pretty average to me by the eye test. I have to think the lineup now is the best it's going to get, unless you move Trea to SS and put Revere in CF (batting 8th), and even that is potentially not upgrading
ReplyDeleteI also got a kick out of Murphy last night. Dude goes full SUPERMAN to snag that ball, then fires it into the dugout... a top play and not top play candidate at the same time!
ReplyDeleteFries: nope. Murphy is the worst defensive second baseman in baseball according to defensive runs saved. (Shows up in his WAR which is 4.9 but should be like 6 given his offense). Doesn't show up on eye test because it's all horrible range, not necessarily constant errors. (Sort of opposite of Desmond last year, who botched balls hit right at him but had great range.)
ReplyDeleteFrankly I prefer playing Robinson at 1B over Zim at the moment. When he's been allowed to play, Robinson hits. (Granted by hits I mean he generally goes like 1-4 with a double or 1-3 with a walk and single). Like....260 with gap pop. But that's better than Zim.
DeleteAlso. I literally cannot stand FP continuing to say "you know it doesn't matter if you hit .210 with a .250 OBP and no power all season if you get hot in the playoffs that's all anybody remembers." Yeah. As if Ryan Zimmerman has shown ANYTHING over the last calendar year plus that indicates he's capable of getting hot over a stretch of more than 2 games in a row.
ReplyDeleteYeah Murphy is worse than ever at 2b. His errors are down, but that is a product of his inability to get to routine ground balls. There is no denying that the team is *significantly* worse defensively with Murphy at second than with Murphy at first. He is the worst, dead last, everyday player at 2b in baseball.
ReplyDeleteAlso...
Math killed the eye test. You're seeing ghosts.
That last line there was supposed to be silly and not nearly as rude as it reads. Sorry.
ReplyDelete