The fact of the matter is this. If the Nats sweep the Mets the Mets will be 10.5 games behind the Nats. Can a team make up 10.5 games in 5 months? Sure! It's not easy but it can be done. This is especially true for a team that you think is good and looks a little unlucky chasing down a team that you don't really like and who has looked a little lucky. Like say if the Dodgers had to make up 10.5 games to catch the Rockies.
But it's not the Dodgers and the Rockies, it's the Nationals and the Mets. You may have liked the Mets better than the Nationals, maybe. I didn't, but maybe you did. But did you like them to finish 10.5 games ahead of the Nationals? No one did. And now they'd have a month less time to play that much better than the Nats and they'd be trying to do it with a team that already looks hobbled 4 weeks into the season. It's not happening.
Or more accurately it won't happen if the Nats put away the Mets. If the Nats sweep the Mets and put the Nats 10.5 games back they will not catch the Nationals. That means there isn't a chance for the Mets to win the NL East.
Before you get all worried, here are some things you might be thinking I'm saying that I am not:
- I'm not saying the Nationals are going to win the East. There are other teams in the division and while I don't really love any of them, things happen. The Nats can get injured. Teams can really bolster a surprise contender with a trade. There's no handing the Nats anything on April 28th or May 1st.
- I'm not saying the Mets can't make the playoffs. 8-13 is a bad record but it's not terrible or anything. If you think say ... 90 wins can make the playoffs then the Mets would have to go through the rest of the year at a 94 win pace. That's certainly possible. From 8-16 it would be that much harder but again in the realm of possibility. Plus right now the 2nd WC is the Phillies at 11-9. That's a catchable team with a mediocre record. (Not to mention the first WC would be the Rockies). There's no group of good teams running away from the rest.
- I'm not saying teams won't make jumps of 10.5 games against other teams. Most presumed good teams will start to do better but really this is about bad teams crashing out. There's definitely a snowball effect that happens at year's end compounded by the good players on your team being traded away. Teams close to .500 now could easily finish 15 games under. That's 15 games without even trying. If the Nats were a surprise contender and the Mets were the heavy favorite I wouldn't even consider saying the Mets can't make up that ground.
Agree Harper...Put. Them. Away.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats are playing the best offensive baseball I've ever seen, but it is too soon for me to get out the Leap to Conclusions mat. End of May maybe.
That said, if the Nats sweep the Mets this weekend Terry Collins will be looking for a new job next week.
As a New Yorker with many friends who are Mets fans, a sweep this weekend would be amazing.
ReplyDeleteIdk if Terry Collins is the one at risk if the Mets get buried this weekend. It's hard to blame the manager for bad injury luck and a rotation full of glass arms, even if heads have to roll somewhere within the organization. Plus I have a feeling that getting a historically mediocre-to-bad team to a WS gets you at least a few years of goodwill.
ReplyDeleteIts unlikely that the Nats sweep this weekend. Even if they did, there would be too much season left for me to definitely conclude that the Mets couldn't catch the Nats in the standings at that point. Though obviously it was a different set of circumstances, I remember the Nats going 7-13 to start 2015 (and came THIS close to 7-14, if not for the 'Uggla Haunts the Braves' game), while the Mets were 15-5. So they were 6 back after 20 games. Just 20 games later, the Nats had already caught up to the Mets (both teams were 23-17). It can happen like that.
ReplyDeleteYou could say, 'Yes, but the hypothetical is 10.5 games here, not 6'. But 10.5 games in 5 months, while very hard to do, is certainly doable. Mets would needs lots of providence and health, and vice versa for the Nats.
Remember when the Mets double swept the Nats in August of 2015? I'm just not ready to write them off yet, even if the Nats sweep (which I hope they do).
I'm going to Saturday's game. Anyone else attending this weekend?
Mets are toast. Truly. The injuries are proving to be too much.
ReplyDeletePhillies are one of those teams Harper mentioned that will probably end up 15 below .500 without trying.
Marlins are a question mark. They could get hot with Realmuto, Yelich, and Stanton, but their pitching is subpar.
Braves are also a question mark. I could legitimately see them contending down the stretch assuming all the vets stay healthy.
All in all, while we can't really "call" it, the Nats are even bigger favorites to win the division today than they were at the start of the season.
BUT, majority of the experts had the Nats winning the division. This isn't really news. The question has always been can they finally get that playoff series victory? And with the way the team is right now, my prediction is no, unless they go with a 3-man rotation where Scherzer, Stras, and Roark go 7-8 innings each outing.
So while we should be confident the Nats will make the playoffs, there are absolutely questions to be answered throughout the rest of the season.
Now, I call upon Robot to reverse the jinx I just cast upon this team.
Harper, any chance the Fish make a move for Quintana? Do they even have the pieces to make such a trade?
ReplyDeleteWhile you can't blame a manager for injury luck, you certainly can blame a manager for bad handling of injured players. Harvey, for example, should never have started yesterday after his weightlifting session Wednesday. Cespedes shouldn't have been allowed to try to come back so early (to say nothing of the way both he and D'Arnaud have been worked into games so they can't even backdate DL trips). There's a clear institutional problem in NY with the "just play through it until your limbs fall off" mentality, and while it's not confined to Collins it definitely matters.
ReplyDeleteOf course, since I'm rooting for the Mets' biggest rival, I highly encourage them to keep putting lineups full of injured players hobbling around the field and pitchers who can't throw without pain against us!
Also -- does this mean there's ANY chance we see Tebow this season? I want that to happen so very badly.
ReplyDeleteGCX - Actually the Nats were 8 games out after 20 and got back to tied in another 20. All it took was the Nats playing their (unsustainable) best baseball of the season and the Mets their (unsustainable) worst. The Mets could crawl back to say 2-3 games out but it's likely because either the Mets were super hot or Nats super cold. That won't last and over time you'd expect an evening out. That's all we can do at this point - look at what we expect over the whole rest of the season. Even if you love the Mets and hate the Nats it's hard to see them playing a the pace necessary to surpass the Nats given 5 the entire months. (and really they'd need to come close in 3 with the trade deadline there)
ReplyDeleteHere's the real problem. Let's say the Nats sweep but you like the Nats only a little better than the Mets. So could the Mets go from 10.5 to say 5 out by the end of May? Sure! But if you like the Nats better it would be more likely that the Mets go to 16 out than 5 out. The fact that the Nats got back so quickly in 2015 was a fluke. A more likely scenario still has them ending up where they did by the trade deadline but after a long slog up the records.
I like the Nats much better than an injured Mets team. I think the possibility they play 11 games better than the Nats in 140 games or so is so small to be dismissed. You can choose to believe otherwise.
I agree with Harper. Id like to make one quick point. It's not bad injury "luck" when you have the most injury prone roster in the majors. You basically have the oldest lineup in the majors (what starter isn't injury prone? Conforto?) and a rotation full of TJ patients. These are players that are going to get hurt during the year. The only question is if multiple get hurt at he same time. That has happened.
ReplyDeleteThis is an obvious point, but I don't think the Nats will be set up to win playoff games without revamping their bullpen. I hope Rizzo knows this (I'm sure he does), and given the likely fact that the lineup and rotation is good enough to cover for it during regular season, I hope the wheels are spinning. And I hope he is looking for creative ways to add multiple arms. For example, if they're way ahead, might the Nats consider spending August and September introducing Ross to the pen while they let Fedde have a shot at no. 5 slot? (Given durability concerns and his two pitch mix, it might be even more natural than starting for him) and going with scherzer-stras-Roark-Gio in October, then adding colome or somebody to add with ross? I don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but the Nats playoff odds are at like 95% right now, and their DIV odds at 90%, plus this blog post is titled Put Them Away. So I figured I would. That's my outside the box idea: moving Joe to pen for last month or two. I think he could be super valuable there. Maybe even fit more naturally than as a starter, given his issues with 3rd time through order and dealing with lefties/finding a third pitch/ health.
I'm a faithful reader, very occasional anonymous commenter. While I appreciate all the sober analysis here, I am here to tell you the real reason for this hot streak: the Nats are undefeated since my daughter was born early Wednesday morning. She was born the night Turner hit for the cycle and have scored 42 runs in 3 games since my wife went into labor. They are 9-1 since her due date.
ReplyDeleteThat's the real reason for their hot streak there. We are considering whether we should have named her Natalie. :)
Yes, Harper! OFF WITH THEIR HEADS! (puts on Viking helmet)
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to Josh. Now, start teaching your daughter how to pitch -- preferably with good control and an unhittable slider.
ReplyDeleteCongrautlations Josh! Don't worry about not naming her Natalie, Brycerina is a beautiful name.
ReplyDeleteMy daughter was born in November. Harper Elizabeth. Wife came up with it.
DeleteWell I guess it's ok for a girl since you've read the blog
DeleteCongrats Josh! We named our daughter Natalie in 2006. She's almost 11 now, and it's a great joy to call her "Nats"! Especially when they are playing so well....
ReplyDeleteDusty says Solis is not getting better and will have an MRI, per Janes and Castillo. #PerezForPrez and #InEnnyWeTrust, by which I mean good heavens the lefty options out of the pen are bad and will stay bad.
ReplyDeleteJosh, do you think your daughter can make the active roster by August? And is she left handed?
Harper how do u feel about the Yankees? Not gonna lie. I was not in on them as a playoff team to start year, but Pineda and Severino + Judge cutting down on whiffing is changing my outlook.
ReplyDeleteNo way am I calling any team dead on April 28 or May 1, but the Mets certainly will have their work cut out for them if the Nats sweep this weekend, and with their injury-prone roster, it seems pretty unlikely.
ReplyDeleteAlso, congrats, Josh!
In baseball, if you peg your expectations at "sweep" then you are setting yourself up for disappointment. If they don't sweep the Mets, it won't be because the Nats "took them lightly" or "lack the killer instinct" or whatever such blahblah you would see on Monday morning. It will be because it's not particularly easy to sweep any team in MLB - especially one that is pitching a legit #1 starter in the first game (deGrom) and possibly a pitcher that is in the conversation for best RH starter in MLB in the third game (Syndergaard).
ReplyDeleteA series win would be excellent. But even getting swept wouldn't be catastrophic as long as the Nats' players stayed relatively healthy.
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ReplyDeleteThanks everyone!
ReplyDeletePotomac - I don't know much about pitching but I'll see what I can do. She's already developed a few nasty sliders...in her diapers.
Harper - Brycerina was on my list, but my wife vetoed it because she had an Aunt Brycerina that nobody liked.
Anon - Can't wait to take Eleanor to her first game. We live in Michigan so it might be at Wrigley unless we go home to visit family.
Josh H - She's very advanced, but even that might be too quick a climb from Infant A Ball. 50/50 shot on being left-handed, though.
Our pen is truly terrible and Werth is a statue.
ReplyDeleteThat's a bad way to start a sweep...
ReplyDeleteThis has been a disastrous two days. 90% due to Eaton injury. He looks like he MIGHT be done for the year, depending on what MRI says. Such a shame.
ReplyDeleteJohn C, so prescient. I was there today and even though MAT did a great Eaton impression overall today, this is disastrous. Now the Nats have 4 fearsome bats, instead of 5. From a rational perspective, the season clearly isn't over, but it feels like it right now.
ReplyDeleteTorn ACL, done for the year, per Fox Sports and ESPN. Bloody hell.
ReplyDeletethe loss of Eaton is not gonna be that bad as Bautista is gonna be a Beast.
ReplyDeletewe will smack around Thor tomorrow and continue our ascent towards owning
the NL East. dont worry everyone, we got this. this is OUR year!!!
hahahahah OUR YEAR? NATS WILL NEVER HAVE A YEAR! JOKE TEAM, CHOKE ARTISTS. HARPER IS A CHOKER! CANT WIN IN NLDS! GO MARLINS
ReplyDeleteALL CAPS LOSER
DeleteOuch. Loss of Eaton is brutal. MAT is not a major league player.
ReplyDeleteWill a serious injury to Thor take the Mets out of contention? I heard a lot about the depth to their rotation, but that was before Lugo and Matz got hurt.
ReplyDeleteThe Eaton injury is a problem, but not as big as one of the big 3 (big 4?) going down, and the Mets have their own injury issues on offense. There's nothing to me that says that the Nats are now worse in expectation than any of their NL East rivals.
Fangraphs updated projected standings have the nats at 92 wins (2 fewer than before the Eaton injury and two losses to the Mets), and the Mets in second in the NL east with 83 wins. The regular season should still be OK. There's a clear difference between the Nats losing their 4th or 5th best player for the year and what's happening to the Mets so far.
ReplyDeleteRendon might have singlehandedly broke the back of the Mats. We were at the game and I must say Plawecki took one for the bullpen and deserves a medal.
ReplyDelete...and as I predicted in spring training, Ryan Zimmerman is Comeback PoTY