Our former guys

Just as a thought exercize I wondered how this below philosophy applied to guys the Nats already got rid of in trades?

Jesus Luzardo - age target for league which is great considering he had surgery. Impressive stats but so little to work with (20 IP) and so far down (rookie). All talent based

Sheldon Neuse - When Nats traded him he was a solid player in A-ball* not quite a prospect but perhaps rounding into one.

So Nats didn't really give up much here in terms of minor leaguers.  Oakland has kept Luzardo in Rookie as part of the recovery year and moved Neuse up to High-A where he is younger and can become a real prospect if he succeeds there (too soon to tell)


Jeffrey Rosa (for Enny) -  He was an old rookie league player with mediocre stats.

Nats got Enny for nothing.


Dane Dunning - First round draft pick who looked good in Low A and seemed ready and willing to be aggressively moved up in 2017 as per usual.  Very early and in low minors but it was what you wanted to see.

Lucas Giolito - A true PROSPECT taht begin to hiccup a little in AA in 2015 as a 20 year old but still was way young. Despite not getting production there moved up to AAA in 2016 and performed well. Still a PROSPECT but the spectre of that overall mediocre AA performance was hanging over his head. That was 100+ innings saying he's being pushed beyond his current limits. 

Reynaldo Lopez  - Another PROSPECT, and another one with production issues. This time at High A in 2015 at 21. A little older than Giolito but responded better in 2016 to AA and AAA. He had a jump in K-rate in AA that was very promising, but it went right back down in AAA. Still a PROSPECT but with maybe only a year before age would force a downgrade.

These were legitimately two PROSPECTS and another guy who easily could be one in 2017. What you could say though is both the PROSPECTS were having production issues. It could be they were just young and going to get over it, but it could also be them hitting their level. Doesn't matter if you are major league good or AA good you should still look really good in low A.  Since then Dunning looked real good in A-ball but has stalled a little in High A, keeping him in the prospect range rather than something more special. Giolito has seen things start really badly and then leveled out to adequate. Age keeps him as a PROSPECT, he's still two years under to low range for AAA, but he's looking far more AJ Cole than Stephen Strasburg. Reynaldo Lopez hasn't quite put it together but he's put up another solid year especially recently (In last 6 games - 1.96 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, Opp OPS .547, three of his four double digit K games this year) You may not be feeling ace but you'd have to say he's still a PROSPECT who should see major league time this year so who knows?


Max Schrock  (for Rep) - A guy who you could honestly say made himself into a PROSPECT though you didn't see that in rankings. 21yo in High A with an .826 OPS.

By production arguably a better get than either of the guys the Nats gave to Oakland this year. This is where scouting diverges from me. Both those guys were essentially high draft picks, loved for talent and what could be. Schrock was a mid-range draft pick who had to perform to raise any eyebrows. Where as I accept what I see on the field, scouts are more dubious about these types.

As a waiver trade part - Schrock didn't play much for Oakland last year. This year they pushed him to AA and he's continued to perform, hitting .316 with an .816 OP in AA. He's still under the radar but he's a 22yo hitting well and fielding well in AA. He's done nothing production wise to say he's not a PROSPECT. Anyone saying something else is clinging to three year old scouting reports saying he shouldn't be able to be doing what he has been doing.


Taylor Hearn (other part of Melancon deal) - propsect who was kind of a young Enny. Great swing and miss stuff but when he didn't have it he was hittable and gave up bombs and walked too many. Kind of an outskirt prospect.

So he was more than a throw in to the deal, but less than a vital part. He was the change, where as Rivero was the dollars. The type of guy that gets thrown around in deals alot because he's interesting enough to tip the scales, but not vital enough to worry about losing. The Pirates seemed to say "don't worry about control. Just worry about not being hit" and it worked wonders in A-ball. However on his promotion to High A this year he's not quite as K-dominant and he needs to either be that or work on his walk-rate. Still a prospect up a level so that's good but needs to step up next year to keep it that way.


It's an interesting mix here. The Nats either paid too much for Rep or too little for Doolitte/Madson. I think Schrock and Giolito play into my hands - about production being paramount to talent. But Lopez is seemingly an age / time case where the talent guys can say that his natural skill just needed some more innings to catch up.

Also it shows these are decent guys that the Nats are giving up in terms of prospect value. However it should also show you that really only the best PROSPECTS are the guys you HAVE to protect. There's a lot of questions for anything else.


*Nationals Propsects does NYPL, Low A, High A.   I do Low A, A, High A.