The magic number* is down to 4 as the Nats keep winning and the Marlins keep losing**. Given there is an opportunity to take 6 games it looks like there's a decent chance the Nats will clinch sometime this weekend. If I were in the area, Sunday looks like the best shot, with Monday following close behind.
Yesterday's posts remain relevant. Nats won and Dodgers lost, making the chances of the Nats/Dodgers series meaning something that a little more likely. Robles is up and got a chance to hit (flied out) and in my mind, given the update that Goodwin is probably out for the year and the agreement from Dusty that they don't want Difo in the OF, is in a silent audition for the 4th/5th OF role. Good luck to him.
There were questions about can he be added to the roster and the answer is yes. Trying to be clear - MLB changed the rules a few years ago so anyone on the 40 can be part of the post-season 25 (chosen before each series). They also allow for anyone in the system before Sept 1st to be added to the 40-man. I think at this point everything is covered since Fedde got bumped to the 60 Day DL to make room for Robles on the 40 man. He's good, no chicanery needed.
As for the Rule 5 question - Robles has one more protected Rule five draft period to go. He signed under 18 so had 4 minor league seasons to burn. This was his 4th so they didn't have to protect him. The thing about being added to the 40-man isn't that he wouldn't be still protected if he got taken off the 40-man, it's how to get him off the 40-man. To get him off the 40-man he'd have to be DFA'd and if Robles is DFA'd he'll 100% get claimed, presumably by the first team. The other way to functionally get off the 40-man is to be placed on the 60-day DL, but this is not relevant to the Rule 5 draft as DLs only function during the season.
Have a great weekend and for those in the path of the hurricane - stay safe.
*Fun fact about magic numbers - they are not exactly
correct. The further you get from the best team the more wrong they are.
For example the Chicago White Sox are the worst team in the AL. Their magic number for total elimination (so from 2nd WC) stands at 5. Yet they are almost certainly actually eliminated by now. This isn't about them winning their last 23 games. You do have to just accept that can happen when you come up with these numbers. This is about the sequence of events that would need to happen for them to take the second WC. Two of the following can't happen - Yankees win 3 more games, MIN 5, LAA 6, BAL 7, TEX 8, TB 8, KC 9, SEA 9. Well you see what happens - these teams play each other. if one team loses that means another team has to win. That all these happen is likely an impossibilty. But for ease of use we just use total wins and figure it'll work well enoug and it does.
**The Marlins losing dropped them to 6 games under .500 which brought up an interesting question that I've been skirting around for a while. Are the MIA-ATL-NYM-PHI the worse 2-5 ever in division history? The answer, at least by record, is probably not. The 99 AL Central featured a 2-5 that went 75/69/64/63, the NL East projects to finish at 78/72/71/61 so not quite there. Plus with all the intra-division games it's going to be hard to crash hard enough. Sorry. We'll have to settle for 2nd worst 2-5 in division history. (and again because someone will complain - no this is not a knock on the Nats who play well versus everyone)
Monday's an off day for both teams.
ReplyDeleteI looked at the Steamer projections for all our 5th OF candidates (Kendrick/Werth is the 4th OF for sure), and Steamer clearly likes Robles' bat the best. In fact, Steamer likes Robles' bat better than MAT's - 86 WRC+ to 81.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting to think we could possibly trip up the Dodgers for HFA. That all by itself would be a very satisfying "postseason" victory.
ReplyDeleteOne other question I was wondering what everyone thought. Is it me or is MASN fairly Oriole-biased. I'm not counting Nats Xtra or the commenting during the game. I turned on mid-atlantic sports report the other night and they were talking nonstop about the Orioles. Every time I turned back - more Orioles talk. My dad was off Thursday. He usually watches the previous Nats game on replay on MASN replay. Yesterday, it was an Orioles game. Followed by the rain make up against the Yankees. I know Angelos owns MASN, but it has always struck me that way. Maybe it is just me. I would be curious to know what everyone else thinks.
ReplyDeleteJay - I've always had a similar sense. I'd love to have the time to calculate the number of hours MASN/MASN2 devote to each team. Also, since some markets don't carry MASN2, any deviation in the number of games shown on MASN would be a HUGE injustice. I'm sure they are careful about that, but are they also careful about replays and their talk shows? My sense is they aren't.
ReplyDeleteHopefully the Lerners have someone who just watches MASN/MASN2 all day and keeps track of the content.
I have always felt that, but then again I cut the cable about 3 years ago. When I did watch, I saw there were more bells and whistles for O's broadcasts. For a while they would show the speed and type of pitch for each one thrown, but neither for the Nats, for instance.
ReplyDelete@Bx,
ReplyDeleteI think MAT took up your challenge pretty well last night. Inside-the-park slam? Breaking ball. Triple down the left field line? Breaking ball. I'm not saying that he normally does well against breaking balls, but if what you're saying is true, then last night was a nice change of pace, eh?
And he's got a bazooka. MAT: possibly the 2nd most underrated Nat on the team (only behind Gio)
G Cracka X: yeah he had a great game. I do think he has improved against breaking stuff to be fair. The specific pitch that kills him is sliders that break off the outside corner. Contrary to conventional wisdom, he isn't striking out any less than he used to. (It's still 30%.....what I worry about is that long term....I can't think of many successful major leaguers who aren't MAJOR power hitters--like 30+hr power-- who strike out that often. Perhaps given his fantastic defense and decent pop, he can manage it. But I don't expect to see MAT have many seasons where he hits for a .260+ average as he has this season. But if he can keep it around like .250 AVG and .310 OBP-ish he can be productive as a starter, given his defense and pop.
ReplyDeleteIt's only been a couple seasons, but Domingo Santana seems to be making it work with a similar offensive skillset. A 30% K rate is just a less substantial flaw than it used to be, even with merely good power (~.200 ISO).
ReplyDeleteEh not super comparable. Santana has double the walk rate of MAT. I should've included that in my statement. If you walk a good amount, you can strike out a lot and sort of carry the low average that inevitably follows if you make up for it with a solid walk rate and get on base. MAT never walks (like 6%) AND strikes out a crazy amount. It just means he's going to struggle to ever post a semi acceptable OBP. Santana strikes out the same amount but will end up with like a .330-.360 OBP, which is good.
ReplyDeleteNats clinch! Probably won't catch the Dodgers, (despite their 10-game losing streak), but they can try.
ReplyDeleteI for one would rather play the Cubs/Brewers than play red hot DBacks or Rockies and play in Colorado.
ReplyDelete@Bx, I whole heartedly agree. Let those three teams wear ea other out for WC tie-breaker and West NLDS. I like our chances better in Wrigley too.
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