Busy day so a short one. The Nats brought back Brandon Kintzler. That's fine. What I said at the time Nats traded for him still holds true. He's not going to blow things up by giving up big homers. He's not going to shut things down by striking out two in a row. He's gonna come in, get someone to hit a groundball somewhere and if the groundball is not too hard and/or at the right person things will work out.
The Nats IF in uniquely split in that a GB to the left side is great news for the Nats and will almost certainly be and out, while a GB to the right side will be a hit maybe more often then a GB hit to the right side of any other team. So Kintzler isn't the perfect reliever. But a GB reliever is someone you need. You need someone who can induce the big DP or keep the ball in the park.
Would a more dominating reliever have been better. Of course. People talked just a few days ago about "Hey Stanton to the Yankees isn't a guarantee of success you can pitch to these guys and strike them out!" but to do that you need guys that strike out anyone. Kintzler is not one of those guys.
The Nats needed someone in the 7th-8th-9th range to fit Doolittle and Madson into general roles* We preferred a 9th inning type that would set Doolittle and Madson back and make the bullpen back end as strong as it's been for the Nats. We got a 7th inning type that keeps Doolittle and Madson forward which worked fine to end last year. Check one thing off the off-season list.
*Not advocating strict "Xth inning guy usage" not expecting "can use at anytime" rather aiming for a compromise of having a general feel when you may come in. I think that'll work.
Kintzler at $10mm over 2 years is a very good signing. Teams (not very good ones, ostensibly) were looking at him as a potential closer. Nats seem to be cool on Albers with this signing, per MLBTR, which is too bad, but I wouldn't be surprised if they brought on another 7th/8th type as insurance for overperforming Kintzler and injury risks Madson/Doolittle. And now here's to more pleasant surprises!
ReplyDeleteYeah, given the deals going around, that seems below market. I agree that another multi-inning Albersy guy would be helpful. They can talk about Kelley and Glover being healthier, but that seems like a silly thing to expect.
ReplyDeleteRizzo has two months to look for value someplace or a deal for a good, controllable starter. By February, they could just go cheap and take a flier on an injured guy or retread who can be stashed until May, about the point where Cole generally would establish that he can give them a mediocre 5 innings or that they should look elsewhere. I don't see how Fedde would have even a fifth starter's worth of innings in him next year.
I agree on Kelley and Glover. Best to assume they're the last two guys out of the pen or on the DL until they prove otherwise. If you build a pen planning on two guys with great ceilings and low floors being your worst two relievers and they surprise, you've got a great pen top to bottom, but if you count on them pitching well in big spots and they're awful and/or hurt, like last year and then one of the law firm gets hurt, you're in big trouble.
ReplyDeleteThis gives the Nats a much better bullpen than they had entering 2017, but they could still use one more reliable arm, much like Albers was last year OR they could go all in for someone like Wade Davis and have a super-pen ready for post-season greatness. I gather that money makes the all-in approach unlikely, but one more good reliever and one more good starter and better health for Eaton-Harper-Turner (plus some improvement from Turner) and another year of growth for Rendon and Taylor, and continued production from Murph/Zim would make them formidable. Health seems like a big wild card, which is why depth is so key, which is also why losing Howie and Lind hurts as well as why needing a REAL 5th starter is also key (preferably the 5th starter is Tanner or Gio because you got a better #3). Arrieta is too expensive, but adding him would really solidify things. All in all, keeping Kintzler is an impressive get by Rizzo.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see them get Arrieta or Sabbathia. They would have to give up a ton for Arrieta. He received a qualifying offer. Besides the money, the Nats would give up 2 picks (2nd and 5th rounds I believe) and $500,000 in int'l bonus money. One of the baseball writers, Buster Olney or Ken Rosenthal - I can't remember exactly, stated he really believes Arrieta is going to DC. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteA few years ago, during Strasburg's press conference announcing his extension, Boras was asked why he didn't wait until free agency to sign a deal for his client, as was normally his practice. The answer from Boras, and I'm summarizing because it was full of other stuff, was that Stras had instructed Boras to negotiate and when his client says to negotiate an extension, he negotiates an extension.
ReplyDeleteYesterday Boras revealed, and Rizzo confirmed, that they have discussed an extension for Bryce Harper. It seems like it is likely meaningless at this point, and certainly unlikely.
However, based on the Boras statement during the Stras press conference, should we take the revelation to at least mean that Bryce has instructed Boras to negotiate?
Also I like the Kintzler signing.
Sometimes, I swear that if Scott Boras was auctioning his used sweat socks on Ebay, national baseball writers would predict that the Washington Nationals were the likeliest purchaser. Of course, we do sign a lot of Boras clients, sometimes foolishly (Wieters springs to mind), sometimes not (Strasburg extension; which made all the national baseball writers curse because they had to delete their auto-paste "Boras never lets his clients sign extensions before free agency" line from their stories).
ReplyDeleteArrieta fits in that weird gap. His end-of-season bounceback makes me hopeful that he'll be at least solid going forward, but decline is always possible and Boras is going to ask for him to be paid like the guy who pitched in 2015. Given the added costs in draft picks and slot money on top of payroll, Boras will have to do an amazing job of selling the Lerners on that one. It's not that I wouldn't want him as our #3 starter, it's that I wouldn't want his expected performance at the cost we'd have to pay.
As for Kintzler, he's a solid pickup and about as good as any non-Davis option out there, plus Rizzo got a solid deal (I'm always in favor of incentive-laden contracts that insure we pay market value for the actual performance provided instead of a guess). I feel a lot better hoping that only one of Glover or Kelley is healthy enough to pitch adequate middle relief alongside Solis and Romero than praying that both of them are fine. The pen can still be improved, but I think the needle now moves to finding replacements for Kendrick and Lind as Rizzo's top priority. Well, that and kicking the tires on Realmuto so long as the Marlins are in full fire-sale mode.
One thing with Kintzler: I hope Martinez understands reverse splits, which Dusty never did. Kintzler was much better against LHB than RHB last season, while Romero dominated RHB but struggled against LHB.
ReplyDeleteKW - with reverse splits I generally look at the batter first. Say - if he can't hit lefties he may have an easier time with Romero than a normal one but I'd still rather bring out Enny than a RHP unless it's a great one. The more balanced a hitter is - the more I take into account the pitcher splits.
ReplyDeleteEmphasizing my point about the media, Boras, and the Nationals, the first thing I woke up to in baseball news for today were rumors about J.D. Martinez going to the Nationals. At least the Arrieta rumor is about a player that actually fits a position of need for the Nationals. Martinez is an incredible hitter, but his defense is bad and he'd also push Eaton back to CF. (It's worth remembering that Eaton in a corner position is worth pretty much the same in terms of WAR as Martinez is, albeit in a completely different way.) Not to mention that the Nats are probably a BIT more interested in signing a high-priced Boras client to play the OTHER outfield corner right about now...
ReplyDeleteRizzo is always looking for value despite what his roster looks like, so with an eye toward the future, if Martinez happened to be asking for LESS than what Rizzo values him at, then he might take that to the Lerners. But isn't it usually the case, that you don't hear anything about who Rizzo is going after until it's about to happen? I'm hoping for another Lind-like deal in February. Maybe even the SAME deal...
ReplyDelete